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"SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!"
SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-05-04, 08:30 PM (EST)
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"SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!" |
So we're back to normal as far as how the voting goes now, right? Whew! That was all just too confusing last week.The Rules 1. Please put the name of your choice for this week's bootee IN THE SUBJECT HEADING! This is really easy. Just erase the bit where it says "Re: SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!" and replace with your vote, i.e., Twila. This makes it easier to tally votes quickly and accurately. Oh, and btw... nicknames are tougher to tally unless they're REALLY obvious without actually reading your vote. 2. Reply ONLY to this post! Curves on women are good. Curves on vote threads are bad. The first part bears repeating: I like curves on women. Y'know, I'm not sure if I've been clear enough about this. Curves on women are really great things. EXCEPTION TO RULE 2! VOTE CHANGES! If it just so happens that you wanna change your vote for whatever reason, REPLY TO YOUR ORIGINAL POST! Your new post heading should read "VOTE CHANGE: Chad (or Whoever)". That said, there is not an exception to the fact that curves on women are good. 3. THIS IS NOT A DISCUSSION THREAD! DO NOT TREAT IT AS SUCH! There are plenty of places on the Spoilers Forum to debate the merits of people's arguments. Let's keep it out of here, please. 4. No sig pics! It was suggested that because this can be such a long thread, sig pics make it really hard to load for folks with dial-up connections. So show some respect to your slower brethren (and sistren). And really, if I can refrain from flashing the greens at 100 posters, surely you can refrain just this once from extolling IceCat's animated glory, no?
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SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-05-04, 08:31 PM (EST)
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1. "Scout" |
Same reasoning as always.
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RealityRyan 218 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-05-04, 08:47 PM (EST)
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2. "John K." |
n/m
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-05-04, 08:57 PM (EST)
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3. "Agent Brady" |
mission over
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sweetpea 223 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-05-04, 09:01 PM (EST)
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5. "Brady" |
Too much face time this week in the promos. It's his time to go.
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survivor_21 506 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-05-04, 09:22 PM (EST)
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6. "Brady" |
He's gotta go next....right?
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strid333 2928 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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10-05-04, 09:31 PM (EST)
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7. "The Sheepdog Rory" |
Goin' with the Dolly mentioned him because he goes early theory.
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DRONES 615 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-05-04, 09:40 PM (EST)
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8. "Brady**" |
**
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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10-05-04, 10:19 PM (EST)
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9. "Brady" |
After last week’s double tribal council, we are left with clear majority alliances on each tribe.At Lopevi, Chad, Chris, Lea and Rory are in control with Travis a loosely aligned member of their voting block. At Yasur, Scout, Leeann, Twila and Ami are in control. Those tribe members not a part of these alliances are vulnerable… SNEWSER’S “MEMO”:
We have no reason to doubt the reliability of Snewser’s pre-merge boot list. It has proven to be accurate so far and we can use this spoiler to narrow down the list of boot candidates for EP4. Those remaining to be voted out pre-merge are… Lopevi: Travis, John K., Brady Yasur: Julie, Lisa The OFG THEORY:
The OFG Theory confirms the vulnerability of Travis, Brady, Julie and Lisa, as they are all featured in the promo for EP4. John K., on the other hand, is missing from the promo and therefore probably safe this week. CONFESSIONAL ANALYSIS:
The editing pattern used in the first three episodes has been to hide the bootee in the episode prior to their boot. They are then given a spike in confessional during their final episode. Again, all but John K. fit this pattern; another indication that John K. is safe in EP4. THE FAT FIVE: Travis is the fifth member of the majority alliance at Lopevi. As such he is probably safe in EP4, should the men go to TC. However, the storyline is starting to focus on his weaknesses and vulnerability in the eyes of his alliance partners. His “homesickness” will be viewed as a weakness and he will probably be the target of the minority group at TC. Bubba will get to go home soon, but not in EP4. MICKEY KNOCKS SPOILER: When Snewser’s “memo” was first released, Julie was not one of the first eight listed. She was added to the list separately at a later date. It may be that Snewser received additional information about the jury, leaving Julie as the ninth boot, by a process of elimination. Mickey Knocks, a spoiler who apparently also has access to some inside information, later confirmed that Julie goes “just before the merge”. Julie is probably safe in EP4. LISA OR BRADY?
By a process of elimination, we are left with a choice between Lisa and Brady. Both have a strategy to survive. Lisa’s “backup plan” was to abandon the young’ns by voting with the majority alliance. Brady’s strategy is to become a provider of sorts. Strategies revealed do not succeed, and neither do theirs, it’s just a question of who goes first? VIDCAP ANALYSIS: The previews for this week describe the tribes as “falling apart” as “tempers flair”, yet the only vidcaps showing disharmony at Yasur is immediately after returning from TC. This is contrasted by the Lopevi tribe where the men are shown at their camp, unhappy, appearing paranoid, and apparently biding their time…perhaps waiting to go to TC? CBS EYE MAIL:
This preview appears to be all about misdirection..."the tides are turning" making the suggestion that Brady may somehow be able to save himself, while the vulnerability shifts to the Yasur tribe where the former alliance falls apart... This preview gives Brady a little more face time, and also serves as misdirection, intended to leave the average viewer surprised when he is voted out. CONCLUSION: Lisa voted with the majority against Eliza and Julie. Eliza is the annoying one, Eliza is the pot stirer, and yet somehow Eliza survives. I'm thinking that Eliza would be next to go on the Yasur if they went to TC this week. It's Eliza who is more likely saved by a swap/reshuffle next week. Featuring Bubba's homesickness so early in the game seems out of place, unless it's to draw attention away from the more obvious Brady boot. The audience will need to feel that someone other than Brady is vulnerable and the editing scraped the barrel to come up with Bubba's homesickness. Brady tries to become the provider, but the goldfish he spears fails to convince anyone... The missing IC vidcaps are a little disconcerting, and maybe we will arrive at TC by way of a twist or swap, but in the end the result will be the same...Brady goes this week. Krautboy
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ScurvyDawg 58 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-05-04, 11:24 PM (EST)
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11. "Brady" |
Chris's fingerprints will be all over this boot, he doesn't want any other potential leaders on his island.
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weecama 305 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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10-05-04, 11:28 PM (EST)
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12. "Brady" |
Brady , going with the spoilers .
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badger 1273 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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10-05-04, 11:29 PM (EST)
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13. "brady" |
because krautboy's post convinced me
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pinchy 200 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-06-04, 00:51 AM (EST)
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14. "John K" |
It'll never work!
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Magic Fingers 377 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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10-06-04, 01:31 AM (EST)
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15. "Brady" |
Krautboy spelled it out so nice...thank you!
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-06-04, 02:34 AM (EST)
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16. "Brady" |
I agree with KB
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-06-04, 04:51 AM (EST)
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17. "Brady" |
As has been already outlined, the two most obvious boot choices this week are Brady and Lisa. There's the theory that the boot is 'hidden' in the episode before he goes with a corresponding spike in face time in the final episode -- Brady was invisible in the last episode, while Lisa wasn't. Brady was not a main focus of the previews for this week while Lisa was in a spat -- OFG theory suggests that Brady would be the better boot possibility in this situation. Ciao, Brady. Lisa's a very close backup boot choice here.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-06-04, 06:14 AM (EST)
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18. "Brady" |
I am Krautboy's lemming this week! It's a darn shame to see him go, what a looker!
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justwrong 63 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-06-04, 07:08 AM (EST)
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19. "brady-less bunch" |
i was going to vote for john k again this week but kb swung me.
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Draco Malfoy 10525 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-06-04, 08:08 AM (EST)
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20. "Brady" |
The Fat Five continue to pagong the young'uns.
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ohboy 168 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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10-06-04, 08:23 AM (EST)
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21. "Rory" |
I vote for Rory the older gusy are very strong . Rory is going down
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LeftPinky 4150 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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10-06-04, 09:32 AM (EST)
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23. "Brady" |
*bows* to KB
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JazzyJax 531 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-06-04, 10:02 AM (EST)
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25. "Brady" |
Jumping on the Brady Bandwagon
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-06-04, 10:47 AM (EST)
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28. "Brady" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-06-04 AT 11:08 AM (EST)As KB said, it's between Brady and Lisa. The only thing that bothers me is that it looks like we are being prepared for Lisa to get voted out by original Yasur as untrustworthy. If there is a tribal switch next week and Lisa's still around, her demise must come by other means. But anything can happen. Brady looks more solid for the boot this week. I think in addition to assuming a wannabe-provider role, he will continue to work on Sarge as he and John P did last week. To no avail. (But I won't be shocked if Snewser posts that it's Lisa). ETA: To add to Krautboy's stellar logic above, here is Jeff Probst's initial quote about Brady in his 9/14 media conference: Brady, he's an FBI agent. His whole thing was, should I tell them or not? Should I reveal that I'm an FBI agent or will that put me in danger? People are comparing him to Colby. He's definitely a hero role. Good looking guy. But Brady is a target and he's going to have his work cut out for him. He's going to have to find a way to integrate in a way that's not threatening or they will chop his head off soon. I almost think guys like Brady anymore have to come on and go for it in the beginning because you might as well. Sooner or later the bad news bears are going to get you if you don't. It sounds like Brady turned in a disappointing performance and got his head chopped off pretty quickly.
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Gingerman28 380 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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10-06-04, 11:00 AM (EST)
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29. "LISA" |
I am going out on a limb against all odds (and everyone on top of me.) But there has been too much misdirection that the men lose whatever challenge we have been seeing previews of. There is a shot after we see the men struggling (and Jeff helpfully saying: you have to work together, guys) of the men standing in a group looking dejected. But this is a real misdirection since you can see that JohnK is wearing a different headband from the one he is wearing just before during the puzzle task. So me thinks that the men win the challenge which is a reward challenge and then they also gain immunity from the "stranger" who brings them the power of the volcano that night!! The gals go to TC again and Lisa is a goner.
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blacknwhitedog 6532 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-06-04, 11:03 AM (EST)
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30. "a very Brady survivor" |
darn!
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Monicanada 532 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-06-04, 11:26 AM (EST)
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31. "Brady" |
Thanks KB!
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PenMike 95 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-06-04, 11:35 AM (EST)
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32. "Brady" |
But I don't feel as confident as I would like to........
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nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-06-04, 11:38 AM (EST)
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33. "John K." |
NB
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volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-06-04, 11:54 AM (EST)
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34. "Brady" |
As much as it pains me to type it...
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jackandjill 204 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-06-04, 12:22 PM (EST)
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35. "Brady" |
He's the cute girl.
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wendyp 2081 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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10-06-04, 02:21 PM (EST)
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38. "Brady" |
Spoilers have been wrong before ~ but this one looks pretty good
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Dregar 75 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-06-04, 02:48 PM (EST)
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39. "Brady " |
Bye Brady, report back to your superior for your next mission. (Operation Vanuatu is officially Terminated)
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Jayzzzy 88 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-06-04, 03:02 PM (EST)
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40. "Brady" |
just a daw
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redbeard103152 466 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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10-06-04, 03:09 PM (EST)
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41. "Brady" |
The story of the man called Brady comes to a close. You cant feed a tribe with a goldfish.
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I_Got_Nutn 897 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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10-06-04, 05:54 PM (EST)
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43. "Julie B." |
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-06-04, 07:41 PM (EST)
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44. "John K" |
Well, with Snewser's memo, we know that its between Travis, John K, Brady, Julie and Lisa.I personally don't think Brady nor Julie nor Lisa have been given enough of a storyline yet to get the boot, as well as JP's comments about Brady having a choice early on in the game that could make him or break him. We haven't seen that yet. We see Brady trying to fish for the camp, and yes, strategies shown do not succeed, but they don't succeed long-term, they may succeed short-term. Typically this season, the bootee was missing in the episode prior to boot, except John K won immunity. This is a pivotal story arc, so they couldn't keep him hidden. Also, by winning immunity, he moves to the top of the "threat" list, especially having possibly made friends in the "female camp", and even moreso for telling the other men what went on over there. He should have held that card tightly. There also appears to be an emphasis on Lisa this episode, so her story could be said and told in one episode. Alternate: Lisa
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greg2557 166 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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10-06-04, 11:15 PM (EST)
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46. "Brady" |
sounds good
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Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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10-06-04, 11:48 PM (EST)
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47. "HEY BRADY..." |
...it's time for you to go!
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LookeeLoo 1169 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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10-07-04, 00:18 AM (EST)
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48. "Brady" |
Yep, Brady...
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kelli_blue 301 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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10-07-04, 08:23 AM (EST)
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51. "Brady" |
Going with the majority here.
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Rollover 31 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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10-07-04, 09:34 AM (EST)
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53. "Brady" |
I think you may see Brady be aggressive and therefor he is targeted next.
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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10-07-04, 09:53 AM (EST)
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54. "Brady" |
Sigh. If only he had told them he was a car salesman. -
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ssshaw 548 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-07-04, 10:08 AM (EST)
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55. "Brady" |
Go with the flow.
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-07-04, 11:07 AM (EST)
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57. "Lisa" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-07-04 AT 01:20 PM (EST)This is me, out on the limb. Krautboy has a lot of good logic, as usual, and I agree with most of it, right up to the point where he narrows it to Brady and Lisa. Here's why I think Lisa, and not Brady, goes tonight... MISDIRECTION Eliza is seen in the preview that immediately followed E3 as being alienated and pissed at Lisa. Julie is shown in the commercial that aired all week as being frustrated and on the outs. Lisa is shown in a position of power, telling Eliza off, repeating Eliza's refrain of "I did what I had to do". All of this points to Eliza and Julie being the ones in danger, and Lisa taking Eliza's spot with the Burly Girls. However, history tells us that individuals who preemptively backstab their alliance get the axe pretty much immediately. EDITING Brady's story arc hasn't gotten off the ground, let alone come to completion. It could be that he was just a dud, but the guy's been MIA since E1. I just don't think his story gets told in one episode like that. John P.'s boot was set up in E2 during his conversation with Travis showing how the Fat Five feel about him. This led directly to his boot in E3. Lisa's editing follows this pattern more than Brady's. In E3, Lisa's lone confessional was about her 'B' plan. It wasn't the focus of E3, just like JP wasn't the focus of E2, but it set the stage for the next episode. Likewise, I think Lisa's jump to the Burly Girls will be her undoing. They don't need her, and now they can't trust her. Brady still gets another week to wriggle on the hook, IMO, trying to improve his status in the tribe (unsuccessfully) by fishing. VIDCAPS We have lots of vidcaps showing a dejected Lopevi, but no shots of the IC. The focus of this episode is the RC and the subsequent reward. It's in the title. It's the focus of the commercial. I believe that all of those dejected Lopevi shots (and Sarge, in particular) are post-RC. Whatever the reward is, Yasur will be ecstatic to win it, and Lopevi will be down in the dumps to have lost it. This feeds back to misdirection. No visual evidence of the IC likely means a visually boring IC. I don't think there's any substantial evidence that Lopevi goes to TC, unless they just can't rally after losing that big reward, or unless the reward is somehow tied to immunity (but I doubt they'd do that 2 weeks in a row). BRADY'S FUTURE Additionally, we're likely looking at a tribe redistribution in E5. I think Brady's a more likely post-redistribution casualty than Lisa would be. If the tribes get divided in a manner that keeps the Burly Girls and Fat Five more or less together, Eliza and Julie would be more likely targets than Lisa for the Fat Five, while Brady would likely be at the top of Yasur's hit list. Here's to flaming out in a blaze of glory... Edited to rearticulate thinking after a couple mistakes on my part came to light.
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Roobean 155 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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10-07-04, 11:19 AM (EST)
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58. "Brady" |
RooBean
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westgirl98 92 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-07-04, 01:39 PM (EST)
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61. "BRADY" |
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bobstew617 723 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-07-04, 02:23 PM (EST)
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64. "Brady" |
Logic sounds good to me...only question I have does this affect the spirit stone he won for the guys in Ep1?
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-07-04, 04:01 PM (EST)
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65. "Brady" |
I want to be wrong. This is getting sad.
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npond 13 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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10-07-04, 04:43 PM (EST)
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66. "Lisa" |
I'm skeptic about the absense of Snewser's green checkmark.
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-07-04, 05:02 PM (EST)
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67. "Brady..." |
another young man out of the picture.
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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-07-04, 06:47 PM (EST)
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68. "Brady" |
Gee, I'd like to vote against Brady getting booted. I'd also like to discover a cure for cancer. But Brady's gonna be gone, and cancer's still gonna be here, 'cause I am a SHEEP.
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bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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10-07-04, 07:29 PM (EST)
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69. "Brady" |
Brady
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-07-04, 07:39 PM (EST)
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70. "Brady" |
Had to go with the rest of the bunch
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flygirl 159 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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10-07-04, 07:59 PM (EST)
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71. "Brady" |
Bye!
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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