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"Who's the "cute girl"?"
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-04, 05:19 PM (EST)
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"Who's the "cute girl"?"
In figuring out who the E4 boot will be, we need to pay attention to the Vanuatu newspaper spoiler regarding the "cute girl" who was voted off the island prior to the July 10 article. Dolly (who would qualify) was voted out on July 3. Mia (who would also probably qualify) was voted out July 4. This news appears in the paper nearly a week later. I'm not sure how quickly news traveled on Vanuatu, but I think it's at least within the realm of possibility to posit that the "cute girl" mentioned in the article has yet to be voted out.

If that's the case, who's left from Snewser's List? Julie and Lisa, that's who. However, Mickey Knocks' spoiler states that Julie "just misses the merge". In addition to that, Krautboy's confessional analysis, combined with the hype in the promo, would indicate that Lisa's a prime candidate to be "Brandoned" by the Burly Girls at Yasur.

The calendar seems to indicate that the E4 boot took place on the evening of July 6, and is the last one before the waterfall reward on July 8, where potentially a tribal restructuring occurred. It would make sense that the "cute girl" mentioned in the article was the latest cast-off before July 8. So the question is, does Lisa qualify as a "cute girl"?

Thoughts?

Fester

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Who's the "cute girl"? Brownroach 10-04-04 1
 RE: Who's the "cute girl"? Outfrontgirl 10-04-04 2
   RE: Who's the "cute girl"? PepeLePew13 10-04-04 8
 RE: Who's the "cute girl"? nailbone 10-04-04 3
 RE: Who's the "cute girl"? I_AM_HE 10-04-04 4
   RE: Who's the "cute girl"? volsfan 10-04-04 5
       RE: Who's the "cute girl"? Outfrontgirl 10-04-04 6
           RE: Who's the "cute girl"? donkeykong1390 10-04-04 7
 RE: Who's the "cute girl"? PepeLePew13 10-04-04 9
   RE: Who's the "cute girl"? FesterFan1 10-04-04 10
       RE: Who's the "cute girl"? Brownroach 10-05-04 11
           Lisa or Brady? Krautboy 10-05-04 12
               RE: Lisa or Brady? dabo 10-05-04 13
               RE: Lisa or Brady? KObrien_fan 10-05-04 14
               RE: Lisa or Brady? Bebo 10-05-04 15
               RE: Lisa or Brady? Brownroach 10-05-04 16
               RE: Lisa or Brady? FesterFan1 10-05-04 17
                   RE: Lisa or Brady? dabo 10-05-04 18
                       RE: Lisa or Brady? Brownroach 10-05-04 19
                   CBS Eye Mail Krautboy 10-05-04 20
                       RE: CBS Eye Mail emydi 10-05-04 21
                           EP4 Immunity Challenge? Krautboy 10-05-04 23
                           RE: CBS Eye Mail KObrien_fan 10-05-04 24
                               RE: CBS Eye Mail emydi 10-06-04 25
                                   RE: CBS Eye Mail Brownroach 10-06-04 26
                       RE: CBS Eye Mail Brownroach 10-05-04 22
 Fester! Brownroach 10-07-04 27

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-04, 05:43 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Who's the "cute girl"?"
I'm not inclined to give much thought to the Vanuatu Press item anymore, because it's so unspecific, and, as you note, two girls that could be considered "cute" are already at LL.

So even if Lisa (who I suppose someone might call "cute") or Julie got booted this week, there's no way to be sure which of the three the item is referring to.


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10-04-04, 05:44 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Who's the "cute girl"?"
Fester, I'm guessing Lisa does not qualify. She's neither cute nor a girl. Had the paper mentioned large freakishly disproportioned boobs, then yeah.

As I recall, the statement about the cute girl was not linked to any event. Just that she "has been" voted out. The rest of the article was within a time frame, but the statements are not linked together at all other than being in the same "report."

I have a feeling they were mourning Dolly's demise. She was such a knockout. Pacific Islanders get very enthused over fair-skinned blondes, because they rarely see them.

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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-04, 08:17 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Who's the "cute girl"?"
Hey OFG!

I'm in agreement about the likelihood that time is relative to these natives, so to them, 'last week' also means 'just recently voted out.'

However, if I'm to venture a guess on the identity of the 'cute girl' just voted out that isn't Dolly or Mia, I wouldn't be surprised if this is in reference to Eliza (with Julie a possibility). Why? Eliza has that dark look that the natives are more used to and they'd be more naturally attracted to. Dolly would seem so out of the ordinary to the locals with her skin colour and blonde hair striking such a contrast that I think they'd describe it more vividly.

I realize that mentioning Eliza flies in the face of several spoilers out there, but going on a pure speculation angle without knowing of outside spoilers in advance (such as Snewser's), I'd say Eliza is the greatest boot possibility of all the girls right now.

And if they're going to describe Miss E.T. (Mia) as 'cute' then well...



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nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-04, 05:47 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Who's the "cute girl"?"
So the question is, does Lisa qualify as a "cute girl"?

Well, "cute", yeah, compared to Twila and Scout. "Girl", at 44, not so much.

Julie's the best-looking one left right now.


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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-04, 06:21 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Who's the "cute girl"?"
Julie makes the most sense, as she's been consistently on the outside of the main alliance, but why not Eliza also? She switched back to the minority, and thus could be a target for the older girls.

I haven't been keeping up with spoilers, so maybe something says she does make the jury, but there's nothing to say any list is 100%

And are you saying a female is definitely gone this week?

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10-04-04, 06:51 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Who's the "cute girl"?"
HE,

I think that in case Dolly and Mia are not the cute girl that the newspaper references...Fester is trying to determine who is the cute girl. The article would have been written a week after Mia's vote out (that is correct isn't it?) and the article says that a cute girl has been voted off (with no reference to time). So, would the article reference something that happened a week earlier?

I hope that clears it up!


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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-04, 07:36 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Who's the "cute girl"?"
Well, as someone who has spent a very small amount of time in the South Pacific and who has read a lot about it ...

Time is extremely relative there ... news doesn't have to be brand new ... so sure, a week ago is hardly anything in island time and if it wasn't reported before, then it's still news.

I'm not aware of any conclusion that women go to TC this week. I think the spoiler is being debated as to whether it tells us they do.

I don't think the spoiler is useful because as it turns out it could reference prior boots and there is simply no way to know.

With Eliza on the SNN jury list and Julie rumored to go a bit later--I don't think Lisa fits, so I'm writing this spoiler off because it conflicts with more specific information from other spoilers.

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donkeykong1390 15 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-04, 08:11 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Who's the "cute girl"?"
Regardless of SNN, my pick is Eliza. She is playing the "snake" role way too early in the game.
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-04, 08:29 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Who's the "cute girl"?"
>If that's the case, who's left
>from Snewser's List? Julie
>and Lisa, that's who.
>However, Mickey Knocks' spoiler states
>that Julie "just misses the merge".

Just a thought, Fester... Mickey Knocks' episode 3 spoiler was kinda wishy-washy and the original declaration that John K was the third bootee turned out to be wrong. How much stock can we take from MK's comment that Julie "just misses the merge" in light of this, even if the first two bootees of Brook and Dolly were nailed?



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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-04, 08:53 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Who's the "cute girl"?"
Yeah, she was wrong about the male boot and unsure about the female boot (although she wound up being right) for E3, but she said as much. She said that her "information" was iffy regarding E3, but that she was sure it wasn't Julie in E3 because she had more solid info that she nearly makes the merge. I wouldn't treat it as gospel, but I'm not leaning toward a Julie boot anyway.

I do think that if Yasur goes to TC, that Lisa's a goner. MB would likely play up Eliza's flip-flopping as well, but we know from Snewser's list that she's safe.

Mostly, I'm trying to figure out who goes to TC this week, as well as to look beyond E4 to the potential redistribution of the tribes in E5, and how that might come about so that the power structures remain relatively intact.

I'm also inclined not to think that Lisa is the "cute girl", but wanted to throw it out there to see if anyone could make the argument that she is. I think, as OFG pointed out, that it's probably Dolly they were referring to.

Fester

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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10-05-04, 10:26 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Who's the "cute girl"?"
LAST EDITED ON 10-05-04 AT 11:00 AM (EST)

Mostly, I'm trying to figure out who goes to TC this week, as well as to look beyond E4 to the potential redistribution of the tribes in E5, and how that might come about so that the power structures remain relatively intact.

I was thinking about this last night, Fester. I'd been leaning toward Brady getting booted this week, guessing from the vidcaps that the men are going to TC.

But I think Lisa is the next boot from Yasur, and from what we saw of her last week, and with Eliza calling her a byotch in the previews, it seems more likely that she gets booted while the original Yasur tribe is still intact, rather than after a tribal switch, which might put her into a safer situation. If there is a reshuffling next week, she'd have to go this week by that logic.

Also, there was Probst's comment that Brady would be put into a position to make or break a situation that has a direct effect on how well he does in the game. The only thing we've seen so far that could remotely apply is when he got the stone off the pole in Ep 1. But that didn't have a "direct" effect on his chances; Brady just became one of four guys that the Fat Five planned to vote off in no particular order. In fact they seemed to regard JP as the biggest threat, and Brady is still around, two boots later.

So if Probst wasn't referring to that, something else must happen with Brady. I'm wondering if that comes next week, with a tribal reshuffling.


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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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10-05-04, 11:28 AM (EST)
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12. "Lisa or Brady?"
Yes the question is Lisa or Brady...

Lisa voted with the majority against Eliza and Julie. Eliza is the annoying one, Eliza is the pot stirer, and yet somehow Eliza survives. I'm thinking that Eliza would be next to go on the Yasur if they went to TC this week. It's Eliza who is more likely saved by a swap/reshuffle next week.

Featuring Bubba's homesickness so early in the game seems out of place, unless it's to draw attention away from the more obvious Brady boot. The audience will need to feel that someone other than Brady is vulnerable and the editing scraped the barrel to come up with Bubba's homesickness. Brady tries to become the provider (that may be what Jeff P was talking about), but the goldfish he spears fails to convince anyone...

Leaning toward Brady this week.


Krautboy

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10-05-04, 11:58 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Lisa or Brady?"
LAST EDITED ON 10-05-04 AT 11:58 AM (EST)

What we're not seeing is sometimes important to note as well. We're not seeing much from the Rory storyline this week, which has been the main Lopevi misdirection in previous weeks.

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10-05-04, 11:58 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: Lisa or Brady?"
KB, now that you are back it has made my job easier, all I have to do is stalk you and post in threads right after you and say "I agree with KB".


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10-05-04, 12:00 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Lisa or Brady?"
I'm thinking that Eliza would be next to go on the Yasur if they went to TC this week. It's Eliza who is more likely saved by a swap/reshuffle next week.

Gonna disagree with you here, KB. I don't think Eliza's being targeted because there are bigger fish to fry. What's the biggest threat to the Burly Girl alliance? Bowheads jumping ship to the men. Who is the least likely to successfully do so? Eliza. Oh, she might try, but as proven with her interaction with John K. this week, it doesn't take long for her to annoy new folks. Julie wouldn't have any trouble allying with any younger men who were left. And Lisa's an even bigger threat, since her age could provide false comfort to the older men. John K.'s information on the alliances would be some evidence that she's more of a bowhead in spirit, but the fat five might still trust her.

I put Eliza in the same boat as Rory - annoying to have around, but can be allowed to stick around since they are the least likely to successfully ally with the other tribe.

Featuring Bubba's homesickness so early in the game seems out of place, unless it's to draw attention away from the more obvious Brady boot.

I think you're right about the main purpose, and that there's one more reason - to start to lay the groundwork for a Travis pre-merge boot. If the list is correct, the Fat Five successfully pagongs the Young Guns and then has to cannibalize one of its own. Rory does seem like a good choice, even though he seems like a great choice to go up against in the final 2. So why would Travis be the one to go? If he's so homesick that they fear he might quit (preferring to ride out the remainder of his time away in LL rather than the harsh game conditions), then the others may get rid of him to protect themselves against that possibility. Since the boot lists suggest a 6-4 female/male ratio at merge, the last thing the men would want to do would be hand over a 6-3 advantage, which is what would happen if Travis wasn't voted out and later quit. After all, the Fat Five see the Burly Girls getting rid of the women and have reason for optimism that they can build some alliances with these women once they merge.

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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10-05-04, 12:02 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Lisa or Brady?"
Brady going this week still makes it difficult to fit Lisa's boot into the picture, imo.

If Brady goes in Ep 4, the only way I can see Lisa going in F5 after a tribal switch is if she is on a tribe with four of the Fat Five plus two out of Ami, Leann, Julie and maybe Scout. The male majority might boot Lisa first under those circumstances -- I don't think they'd boot her first over Twila or chatterbox Eliza. (And if JK is on that tribe, he would presumably vote with the women to take out one of the Fat Five.)

If she hangs on longer than that, it's likely because Travis and/or JK gets booted in the meantime; but by that time the women would be up in numbers and Lisa's having flipped to vote out Mia would be irrelevant to everyone but Eliza and Julie. So I don't know...



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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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10-05-04, 01:19 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Lisa or Brady?"
The main reason I can't get on board with a Brady boot this week is face time. Brady has been mum since the first episode. I think it would make more sense from an editing perspective that John K. would go if Lopevi goes to TC. However, from the Fat Five perspective, Brady's gotta be #1 on their hit list, unless John K. took over pole position with his individual immunity win. I think we'll see a spike in Brady's paranoia this week, leading to a boot in the next few episodes.

As for the Eliza v. Lisa debate, both are equally vulnerable, but the Burly Girls alliance of 4 has the advantage no matter whom they pick off. The difference between the two is that Eliza did what she did to save her own neck. What Lisa did was just preemptive backstabbing. I think Scout will recognize this and see Lisa for what she is...an opportunist who is quick to jump sides. I think last week's move put Lisa in prime boot position, a la Brandon in S3, moving Eliza to the back burner, where she'll likely be saved by E5's "Shakeup".

So for me it's a decision between John K. and Lisa. Right now, I'm leaning toward Lisa.

Fester

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18. "RE: Lisa or Brady?"
John K has potentially valuable information from his time at Camp Yasur. Sharing that info, proving himself a good team player, could help him survive an episode or two.

Of course, it remains to be seen what if anything he will do, and he already revealed at TC that the women didn't give him any problems.

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19. "RE: Lisa or Brady?"
And again, JK is missing from the previews this week -- I think his story has a little more time left to it. I'm wondering if he might be the last of the nine to go. If they merge with 10 left, he'd make a typical first merge boot.


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10-05-04, 04:46 PM (EST)
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20. "CBS Eye Mail"
>The main reason I can't get
>on board with a Brady
>boot this week is face
>time. Brady has been
>mum since the first episode.

Fester, you're right about the lack of face time, he hasn't had any confessionals in the last two episodes either, but the boot pattern used so far has hidden the bootee in the episode leading up to their boot episode, where they are featured. The previews certainly appear to feature Brady as does the recent Eye Mail...

This preview appears to be all about misdirection..."the tides are turning" making the suggestion that Brady may now be able to save himself while the vulnerability shifts to the Yasur tribe where the former alliance falls apart...

This is more exposure for Brady, as well as misdirection, probably leading to his boot this week.



Krautboy

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21. "RE: CBS Eye Mail"
LAST EDITED ON 10-05-04 AT 05:14 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 10-05-04 AT 05:10 PM (EST)

Hey KB, do they use old footage in EyeMail?? When were Lisa, Twila and Eliza ever that close and at those angles and balancing??? Could this be the IC??? I'd like to know if Twila's hair is braided, if so, its Ep. 4. And if it's episode 4 and balancing is involved, it is likely another IC win for Yasur.

ETA: I checked the old challenge vidcaps and I could not find any with Twila, Lisa and Eliza like this. Also, Twila's hair is back in the shot and we know she gets her hair braided. I think the eyemail is showing us a shot from IC in Ep 4 (we may see more on TES on Thursday a.m.) Balancing = Yasur win. Brady out....



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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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10-05-04, 06:19 PM (EST)
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23. "EP4 Immunity Challenge?"
Nice catch emydi! I completely missed the fact that Twila's hair was french braided! This must be na new vidcap and a new challenge. Since the RC is the puzzle this could very well be the IC! It certainly does look like it has another balance component to it, which as we've seen favors the women.

This is probably worth it's own thread...why don't you have the honor since you spotted it?


Krautboy

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24. "RE: CBS Eye Mail"
LAST EDITED ON 10-05-04 AT 07:19 PM (EST)

Sorry Emy, no spoiler for you. That picture in eyemail was from the balancing challenge for RC in episode 2. If you look closely on Twilas shoulder you can see a number, plus on Lisa too. This is old footage not new.

Twila had her hair in a bun:


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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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10-06-04, 09:42 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: CBS Eye Mail"
Well, I tried.... the angles looked off like Eliza was too far away to be on the balance beam...


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I still think Brady is out though

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10-06-04, 10:18 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: CBS Eye Mail"
Did Eliza fall backward into the water during the challenge? That must be what is happening here -- she's so much lower than Twila and Lisa, she can't be on the beam.


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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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10-05-04, 05:23 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: CBS Eye Mail"
the boot pattern used so far has hidden the bootee in the episode leading up to their boot episode, where they are featured.

Both John P and Mia got a fair amount of air time in both Eps 1 and 2.

But it does seem dumb to have the "Turning the Tide?" header if the men aren't going to TC -- i.e. we wouldn't find out if the tide has turned or not.


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10-07-04, 01:00 PM (EST)
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27. "Fester!"
Check your PM's.


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