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"Confessional Analysis"
Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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10-03-04, 00:24 AM (EST)
 
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"Confessional Analysis" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-03-04 AT 02:22 PM (EST)S9 CONFESSIONAL ANALYSIS Confessional analysis is a spoiling tool that should be used in conjunction with other spoiling activities. It was used with mixed results during S8, because the need for normal character development was not necessary; we already knew the all-star cast. The same was true when the Ghost Tribe was introduced into the mix. A character could get the boot without the normal face time because the editors knew the characters would be back later in the show. This season appears to be following a more normal format and the confessional analysis may once again be worth considering. The confessional count below does not factor in face time during the show outside of confessionals, which should also be considered in any analysis. A great resource for detailed discussion of the editing is Verucasalts wonderful thread found here:
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=5313&forum=DCForumID2&omm=0
This is a Sblows exclusive that should not be overlooked
CONFESSIONAL COUNT
YASUR TRIBE.
EP1
EP2
.EP3
TOTAL Scout.
..3
..1
.0
..4
Twila
2
.2
.2
..6
Leeann
3
.1
.1
..5
Ami
.1
..1
..0
.2
Lisa
.1
..0
.1
..2
Eliza
6
.3
..3
.12
Julie
1
..1
.0
..2
Mia
.3
.1
..4(Boot)
*
Dolly
1
.4(Boot)
*
* Eliza has emerged as the primary narrator for the Yasur tribe, although somewhat irritating. Her narration has been complimented by the more thoughtful confessionals of Leeann and Scout. Traditionally the narrator lasts at least until the merge. Based on confessional count Julie, Lisa and Ami have had a secondary role so far but Eliza and Lisas flip-flopping will cause their minority alliance to fall apart in the coming week. Ami is flying under the radar so far, in both confessional count and story line.
LOPEVI TRIBE.
..EP1
.EP2
EP3
TOTAL
Chris
4
.2
.0
..6
Chad
2
.0
.0
..2
Lea
..4
.0
..2
.6
Rory
3
..2
.1
..6
Travis
.3
..2
..0
.5
John K
1
..0
.4
..5
Brady
..4
.0
..0
..4
John P
.
2
..1
.4(Boot)
*
Brooke
5(Boot)
*
.*
*
The narrator responsibilities have been shared on the Lopevi by Chris, Lea and Rory. John K. was given a temporary narrator role in EP3 because of his visit to the Yasur camp.
Chad is flying solo under the radar at Lopevi. The other characters have all had some development after EP3.
ANALYSIS
Under the Radar:
Chad and Ami are both positioned to go far. They have both received a positive edit and the confessional count indicates there is still plenty of time for their character development. They are both safe for a while.
Narrators:
Eliza has emerged as the Yasur narrator, while that role is shared at Lopevi by Chris, Lea and Rory. As such this group is most likely safe until the merge. MB likes the continuity of a pre-merge story teller.
Boot Pattern:
Looking at the confessional counts of the bootees so far, we see a pattern emerging
The bootee has had a spike in the number confessionals during their boot episode. In addition notice that the bootee has been somewhat hidden by the confessional editing in the episode prior to their boot. Based on this pattern, the most likely boot candidates are: Yasur Lisa and Julie.
Ami appears to be safe based on her position in the majority alliance. Lopevi Travis and Brady.
Both with zero confessionals in EP3, and both featured in the previews for EP4. Brady is shown in a confessional explaining his provider strategy, which could be indicative of the telltail spike in confessionals associated with a boot episode. You might argue that this analysis is a bit contrived, forced to fit the spoilers and other information we have already gathered, but the pattern seems to fit. As I explained earlier, the confessional analysis is intended as a supplemental tool to check our other more reliable spoiling tools. If it confirms our other speculation, then we are probably on the right track
(edited to correct Scout's total...thanks Strid333) 
Krautboy
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-04-04, 11:28 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Confessional Analysis" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-04-04 AT 05:09 PM (EST)I'm getting the sense that Chad's story in Survivor Vanuatu IS his leg, and that's it. They set the stage for this in Ep 1 -- he shows the guys his prosthesis, Brady comments, "the guy with the mechanical leg will win..." Now he's completely UTR. He's functioning well, he's in the dominant alliance, to which he appears loyal, and he probably has the least abrasive personality of everyone on Lopevi. I don't expect to see him get any focus at all until it's close to the time he's considered for voting out -- which, again, will be about his leg and how he can't be allowed to go any further because he will win on a sympathy vote.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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KLicK 316 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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10-04-04, 05:00 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Confessional Analysis" |
I thought it was interesting that the last two female non-##### winners had big episode 1's despite neither of their tribes attending the first TC. (confessional statistics from Fantasy game at survivoraddicts)Sandra: 9 - 2 - 2 (for the first three episodes)
Jenna M: 8 - 2 - 0 Eliza is the only one with a similar pattern (6 - 3 - 3). Brian: 1 - 2 - 3 (and they did go to TC in episode 1) It probably doesn't mean anything. I just thought it was interesting. I can't find the data on Vee or Ethan in the archives, but I'll see if I can dig it up.
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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10-07-04, 09:04 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Confessional Analysis" |
KB this indeed is a very useful tool and helps consistently with the editing and stories for each player that we love to ponder (me a little too much )I am now seeing your familiar face more recently and so glad. BR I understand completely your "take" with Chad (though in terms of my writings you know I can't agree with it since i have him destined to the end lol) I find with the low level players there are two set ups 1. The true low level player where they are merely going along to get along. They hitched their wagon to a solid alliance, they are used for a vote as opposed to making any key decisions and usually end up in a fourthish place finish. Key example is Butch who had no impact or strategy and was only highlighted at times briefly but positively 2. The "edited" low level player who, in term of editing, is not being shown but is playing the game. I am not talking about Vecepia as Mark Burnett clearly turned a new page in his editing and wanted to completely hide her. This edited low level player is a factor in key decisions, is important to the progress of the tribe and his/her alliance and has a strategy but is underdeveloped until Mark Burnett feels it is time to capitalize on that player because of the circumstances in the story and the outcome. Example of this person is Amber from last season and I would also say Tina. Though some may feel that Tina was not shown at all I would argue that she was shown and we did hear her albiet only at certain times and Colby was "their" mouthpiece as Rob was to Amber. These are broad examples but I'm inclined to feel that in terms of what we are seeing moreso then what we hear from them is just as key. Like I have posted in the The Players.... thread, it appears that Chad, Ami, Leann have seem to "pop up" during key moments though they are not the featured characters in that moment. You could be right in that Chad's "story line" is the inspirational story of his leg but I guess for my purposes I would then expect (outside of the first episode) for that impairment to have been discussed a bit more. After his showing them his leg, the story was over. If it is to be featured at the time of his boot with nothing since the first episode, it picks at me whereas I recall other players who had issues dealing with health in some aspect were played out a bit more such as someone so tired or sick from being on the island or someone who can't perform like Osten's swimming. Those pitfalls seemed to be shown to us then be referenced almost every subsequent episode until their boot. I "guess" that I would (for lack of a better description) expect Mark Burnett to give Chad's impairment more respect by developing it instead of waiting until he goes but that is just my storyline way
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-07-04, 12:53 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Confessional Analysis" |
it appears that Chad, Ami, Leann have seem to "pop up" during key moments though they are not the featured characters in that
moment.
VS~I would add Chris to the above three "playas" Sarge is his mouthpiece ane the featured character (at least last week when he was talking to Chris about voting out Rory. To the average watcher-he/she sees this as Sarge's moment, but it really it was Chris'~he's the decision maker for the Fat Five.
IMHO, I think these four will be the final four~they all seem very smart and know how to play the game (I'd put them in order of "playas" as 1. Chris 2. Ami 3. Chad 4. Leann) Although Chris would like Rory to be sitting next to him at F2 (like Brian got Clay there) Rory will continue to carry that chip around on his shoulder and the group will get rid of him asap after the merge, (imho he will be the 1st juror) Chris will have to go along at that point--something akin to Roger's ouster at F10 in Amazon because of his attitude towards women etc. After Chris' Rory F2 plan is foiled he will have to reevaluate his strategy. I think also after Rory's ouster, Ami will approach him and get a cross gender alliance going with Leann and Chad--they are all about the same age and this will get Ami away from Scout and Twila-who I do not think her and Leann are that tight with anyway. She will bring Eliza with her at F8 and the 5 of them will take out one of the strong personalities of Lea/Scout/Twila. At 7 if they are smart they get rid of Eliza the conniver and then they are F4, every man for himself. Chris will want to steer clear of Chad but I think Chad makes an immunity run (what a story there!!!) and he takes Chris to F2 for the same reason as Chris wanted to take Rory, he is not as well liked as Ami or Leann. Voila, there is your Chad win VS.
Courtesy of the Amazing Slice & Dice Chop Shop 2004
Wow, now you know this is not really going to happen right????
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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10-07-04, 09:01 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Confessional Analysis" |
This analysis is great. The only thing is that Eliza's # of times in the spotlight and her flip-flops have irritated everyone. If Yasur is speculated to get immunity and all of that, then Eliza is not going anywhere. But I cannot see any of them, esp. the older ones letting her hang around long, and Lisa does not seem to be her friend anymore. Julie is still bitter about Dolly being voted off and she somehow holds that against Twila, but Eliza caused her to go. Keep in mind that Eliza suggested the votes against Leeanne the first time, and then suggested Scout last week as they were talking. I am guessing that Eliza is not long in the tooth with the tribe, and if she ends up on the jury, she is unpredictable, so who cares if she does. She won't make up her mind until the last minute anyway.
But something that Tribephyl pointed out or rather had a weird feeling about is something that I see happening. Leeanne's tc reasoning or comments were kind of telling. I have this feeling that Scout or Ami are going soon, or Leeanne and Ami have an alliance within an alliance. But about now, some of these guys have got to be thinking of the people who will be hard to go against at tc and will try to weed out a couple of them before the merge, which takes some of the total control away from any alliance till the numbers get smaller.
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