This week's explanation brough to you via Bebo:

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/5380.shtml#54

The women will definitely target a bowhead, with Mia and Julie as the most vulnerable. I suspect little Miss Eyeroll will shoot off her mouth about Twila's remarks and put a target firmly on her back. Julie's a little lemming, so they'll keep her over Mia.
As for the men, well, gotta go with the editing here. The misdirection is the Rory/Sarge fight. Sarge is not stupid enough to put his numerical advantage on the line by getting rid of Rory. Besides, should the men go into a merge at a numeric disadvantage, Rory would be the first man targeted, since the women would probably find him just as annoying as the men do.

The old farts will stick together and vote out a young gun, and we've been guided right to their target. In the first episode, Sarge argued to keep JP instead of Brook because he was their best chance to get fire. Well, now that they've won their flint, the fire starter is expendable. Then during the second episode, we saw Plinko telling JP what a big threat he was (the better to eat you with, my dear). Pepe's done editing analysis in the past focusing on exposure during the previous two episodes, and using that formula, all signs point to JP getting snuffed at TC.

Bootees: Mia, John P.