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"Lex Phenomenon Rears Its Ugly Head...Again"
Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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09-28-04, 01:07 PM (EST)
 
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"Lex Phenomenon Rears Its Ugly Head...Again" |
Unless MB can shake things up a bit, it appears as if this season is coming down to two tribes of old farts and burly girls. First of all, at Lopevi, we see the Fat Five (Lea, Chris, Travis, Chad and Rory) following Lex's lead of eliminating the strongest in their tribe first. IMHO this will lead to a weaker tribe come merge time and a possible pagonging. As we saw in A$$ last season, the tribe that has the best chance of making it is the one that can maintain solidarity and win challenges early on. Winning challenges builds tribal strength, solidarity and perhaps most importantly, momentum... When MogoMogo booted off its strongest members early on, it allowed Chapera to win even more challenges and ultimately, pagong the tribe after the merge. At Yasur, it appears that the Burly's, even though they are outnumbered by the Bowheads, will pick the Bowhead's off, one by one. Will this leave us with nothing but Fat Five v. Burly Girls? I would hate to think of it but this is exactly what MB is setting the stage for -- Vanuatu, where only the weakest survive? 
Scarlett
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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09-28-04, 01:21 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Lex Phenomenon Rears Its Ugly Head...Again" |
I think they need to mix up the tribes quickly. If they keep it men vs women this is exactly what will happen. And I remember how Thailand got boring when all the older players were left.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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09-28-04, 03:03 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Lex Phenomenon Rears Its Ugly Head...Again" |
Yes, I agree with the consensus here. If the fat five and the burly girls make it to the merge, and the burly girls outnumber the fat five(?four?), then what will happen post merge....Well, I can see most of the guys still winning IC's. But, as the burlies are in the majority I can see them picking off the most abrasive types of the fat five/four first. I could see Rory and Lea leaving quite early on post merge. Then perhaps Twila or Scout. I could see Chad as appearing non threatening enough in the challenges due to his handicap and also non threatening with his mild personality. I could see him making it far into the end game, as some peeps are speculating. 
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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09-28-04, 03:50 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Lex Phenomenon Rears Its Ugly Head...Again" |
IMHO, at 9 (speculated to be 5-4 women v. men--Scout, Twila, Leann, Ami and Eliza v. Lea, Rory, Chad and Chris)I could see a new alliance forming of the 30-somethings (Chad Chris, Ami and Leann--with Eliza as the 5th one in their majority--remember old alliances are supposed to crumble) I could see the CCAL Alliance going first after Rory, Lea, Scout or Twila as the first two jurors then pick off Eliza at 7 when they'll have a 4-2 majority and then get rid of the remaining two of Rory, Lea, Scout and Twila. Then its every man/woman for him/herself at f4 sort of like Allstars.
Courtesy of the Amazing Slice & Dice Chop Shop 2004
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lovwigglesworth 239 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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09-28-04, 07:48 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Lex Phenomenon Rears Its Ugly Head...Again" |
I agree with Blows. This is a totally different situation. They do not have to compete with Rob & Rupert or any other strong guys, so even the "fat five" could beat the women in a physical challenge.
As for the women, well the two best-looking (IMO) ones there are in the "burly" group and with the exception of Scout they are keeping the strongest ones.
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tamarama 1785 desperate attention whore postings
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09-28-04, 06:10 PM (EST)
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12. "Middle Aged not so bad..." |
I've gotta throw in 2 cents about the Fat Five & Burly Girls.They don't look so bad to me. Remember Rupert? 40-ish, non-svelte, and a challenge machine!! OK, Scout has been pretty pathetic at the challenges so far, but aside from her...what's the problem? I think Twila, Ami & Leann could pretty much kick any of the bow-heads butts. Some time ago on this board (I think...may have been elsewhere), there was a discussion about who makes the best contenders, and most agreed that mid-30's to early 40's had the maturity to play with game-sense while still being physically fit enough to hit challenges. I think, particularly, the 'Old' men have little to worry about in booting younger, more 'physical' men. Besides, the age range is really pretty tight -- excepting John K, there's only 9 years separating oldest (Lea, 40) and youngest (JP 31). Brady, Chris & Travis are all 33, and Chad & Rory are 35. No one is in the Clay/BB/Rudy age range. Are the "studs" in better shape? Well, they LOOK better, but didn't Osten look pretty good? Does that mean they're better at all types of challenges? No. The 2 challenges the men lost were balance/agility. The men were probably going to lose those anyway -- old, young, fat, fit -- whatever.
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lizardo99 9 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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09-28-04, 07:42 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Middle Aged not so bad..." |
Speaking of Nancy Boy Osten, who kicked the crap out of him in the sandbag weight challenge? I believe it was a 40 something lawyer by the name of Andrew Savage. Would the game have been more entertaining if he hadn't gotten run because of that ridiculous Ghost Tribe twist? Absolutely. So I don't buy this "old people make the game boring" line. What makes the game interesting is a mix of demographics - different ages, sexes, upbringings, and personalities. For every Paschal and Rudy there's a BB, but for every Colby there's a Silas or Insano Lindsay too. Personally, I can't wait for more of those high maintenence bowheads to get run. If I want to look at attention starved, self-absorbed little girls I'll borrow my buddy's Maxims and FHMs.
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MattyMax 515 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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09-28-04, 09:25 PM (EST)
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15. "Ratings" |
Also, the ratings drop once all of the pretty people are gone... remember Thailand? Kinda? exactly.I think the show might suffer once JP, JK, Brady, Mia're gone, and Dolly, perhaps the most truly beautiful person on this show, is already gone. Eliza's a little too annoying to be thought of as hot... Still, I think they may be saving Leanne and Ami for us. I told my friends that there was no way that LeAnne coulda gone last ep, she's had NO screen time! So I guess the men and the lesbians lucked out, while the women and the gay men will be left wanting. 
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daisy01 6 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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09-28-04, 11:33 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Lex Phenomenon Rears Its Ugly Head...Again" |
not really spoilerish, but from my perspective it seems that strong alliances are build on differencesseason one: Hatch, Sue, Kelly and Rudy
two: Colby, Tina, Keith
three: Lex, Ethan, Tom
four: (didnt get in Australia, cant comment)
five: brian and his band of followers (Clay, Jan, Helen) they didnt always get along with each other all the time, but they knew that to progress in the game they had to trust their alliance
if the tribes stay together long enough to bond then the alliance to the tribe remains when they are split
see Africa when the tribes were split and Ethan threw the challenge to protect their tribe mates on the other team because Kelly told them who had the votes All-Stars - Rupert and Jenna against Rob and Amber
Rupert remained loyal to his tribe long after the game switched to individual immunities Amazon, I put that whole season out of my mind, but Jenna and Heidi were loyal to each other to the almost end
my point - I think - alliances of people that are too similar dont seem to last too long
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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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09-29-04, 07:14 AM (EST)
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18. "Brook - weakest of the young ones" |
I think that the older guys got wise when they realized the young ones blew it by showing their hand. Several of the older guys wanted JP gone - but Lea was the one that said - no way he's the strongest one. ie. We have the numbers but we must stay as strong as possible - hence boot the weakest of the young. You cant afford to get rid of the weakest player if it will screw your own game over.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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09-29-04, 11:59 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: Brook - weakest of the young ones" |
LAST EDITED ON 09-29-04 AT 01:02 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 09-29-04 AT 12:18 PM (EST) I like your thinking BR and Katie. Why not show a disgruntled Kenney ? But the "action" shots of the immunity challenge seem to show Chad somewhat ahead with their ladder building. I keep looking at the vidcaps and I just cannot get a firm hold on who the heck wins it. But why couldn't Chad win immunity but the "old bunch" still chooses to pick off John P NOW rather than later because they perceive him to be the biggest playa (esp. if Travis tells the old bunch of his talk with JP last week)and keeping strength is not as crucial any longer bc of an impending tribal switch (which I do not think will happen) and the fact that they still would have Brady and John K's strength, but not John P's "drama." If this is the way it actually goes, I agree, Katie, Chris is the mastermind behind the choice.
Some interesting tribal dynamics from Brook here
RNO: As Chris was trying – and failing – to cross the balance beam, what was running through your head? Brook: Well until then I hadn’t figured Brady out and as Chris fell over and over, Brady said this guy’s the weak link and he's got to go... I started thinking to myself cool... all I gotta do is convince one of these old guys it’s smarter for them to let us hang around and vote out Chris! Personally at that point I wanted to vote Rory out but I decided it would be smarter for me to tag on with the other guys (Brady and John K.) because they were so fired up about trying to get rid of Chris... J.P. at this point was surprisingly very quiet also, which saved him in the end! RNO: We know why you targeted Chris, but what do you think made the older men target you, in particular? Brook: I thought Chris was a hoot and actually tried to get J.K. and Brady to change the vote to Rory. They were like no, Chris... and I just went along with it. I don't think any of the older men targeted me but I do think Lea had to do something to save J.P. because J.P. was the one who always spoke so highly about Lea all around camp... Lea made a move to change the vote from J.P. to me!! Just as I went with Brady and J.K. to vote for Chris, they all went with Lea to vote for me! Smartest move those fools ever made!! If I didn’t go first I would have created some serious drama on Day 4! I wasn’t going out without a fight!! RNO: Did you go to Tribal Council thinking you had enough votes to send Chris home, or were you still up in the air when you got there? Brook: Yes, Bubba said he was going to vote with us!! He didn’t! RNO: You still would have needed one more vote, but were you surprised to see that Brady, in particular, didn't follow the agreed-upon plan to vote out Chris as the weakest link? Brook: Someone told Brady we were changing the vote and he... being the gullible knucklehead we all love... decided that it must have been Rory!
Aw, shucks, Katie and I was going to be all mean to you  ETA link to Brook's interview, interesting stuff!!
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