State of the SpoilingEpisode Two |
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The spoilers and speculators have been busy studying vid-caps and pawing through information to try and spoil this week’s episode in its entirety. I think they have done a pretty thorough job if I do say so myself. Before we get to the State of the Spoiling however, here is a friendly reminder to read the site guidelines. Also, in case you missed SurvivaBear’s last week, you can find it HERE, he did a standup job (as usual) and there is a lot of great information about the 18 players in it.
In Episode 1 we learned that the men in Vanuatu are revered and the women are treated worse than pigs. Therefore, the tribes were naturally split by gender into the all male Lopevi tribe and the all female Yasur tribe. This week we see a further natural division within the tribes as the episode title indicates:
Burly Girls, Bowheads, Young Studs, and the Old Bunch
Let’s consult the Survivor Dictionary for some assistance here, shall we?
bowhead
\Bow"head`\, n. (Zo<"o>l.)
1. The great Arctic or Greenland whale.
2. Slang for a pretty prissy sorority type girl. A lazy frilly sweet little thing that thinks she can get through the game of Survivor by doing nothing except smiling and piling on the charm and letting all the old ugly women do the work.
See also:
bur·ly girl
(bûr l-e gûrl)
1. Heavy, strong, and muscular; a husky woman.
2. A strong woman who does all the work around camp and does nothing but complain about the young whiny pretty girls. Burly girls will feed the bowheads, support them, comfort them when they cry (as a team bonding thing) and eventually get voted out by them if they don’t watch their backs.See also:
young stud
\Young stud\ (yung stud),
1. Vigorous or fresh; youthful, a man who is virile and strong.
2. The most threatening Survivor species known to man. Cocky and sure of themselves they try to downplay the target on their back by acting stupid and impetuous. Their brain can’t function and they will melt to putty in the presence of a bowhead.
See also:
old bunch
\Old bunch\
1. Having lived or existed for a relatively long time; far advanced in years or life.
2. A group of older men, sometimes fat and out of shape. Threatened most by young studs. (See also: fat five)
3. Bananas that are past ripe, spoiled.See also:
The old bunch comprising of the "Fat Five" at the men's camp drew first blood as they sent Brook packing. Brady is sitting in a precarious position in the tribe since he neither voted with the young studs nor with the old bunch. There was much discussion about why he would have voted for Rory.
One plausible theory was posed by Brownroach: Lea is the head of the old bunch targeting the young studs to pick them off one by one. Brady asked Lea who he should vote for. Since Lea knew he had enough votes on his side to get rid of Brook, he told Brady to vote for Rory (since Rory was shown as bossy). This way, Brady would not have a clue about the "Fat Five" alliance until it was too late. You can find complete details about this and other possible voting strategies here. If you want your fill on bowheads and burly girls, just click this link.
The Reward Challenge
The reward challenge this week is similar to the “Walk The Plank” challenge used in S1 Borneo, but looks a lot tougher. It is speculated that the Survivors will get to choose their order 1 through 8 and then are marked with large black numbers on their forearms. They start off standing on the uppermost level of a balancing plank that appears to be about 8-10” wide, and about 24-30” higher than a platform below. This platform structure for each tribe is in the ocean, so the water will break their fall. (Great call by John K who predicted there would be more challenges with balancing involved in them)
We have several clear vid-caps of the Lopevi lineup and numbering. Chad is #5, John K is #7, and Brady is #8. We can deduce that from right to left the numbering of the rest of them is as follows:
1. Chris 2. Rory 3. Bubba 4. Lea 5. Chad 6. John P 7. John K 8. Brady.
The only Yasur with a number that we see (from the intro clips) is Ami with what looks like a 4 on her arm.
What the players need to do is start with #8 and have that person work their way by everybody else in line to get off the plank and down to the lower platform. If the person falls off, or if the person they are trying to get by falls off, they need to go back to the beginning and start over. In the vid-cap which shows #7 John K falling, we see that #8 Brady has already made it to the end and is on the lower platform. On the Yasur platform in the background we can see Lisa and either Eliza or Dolly on the lower platform, and Twila standing on her tribes plank. The first tribe that can get all 8 players to the lower platform in reverse order, will win reward.
Who wins reward and what is it?
We have several indications that Yasur wins and that the reward is food. First, we know that Scout is the female that sits out the challenge. (She is dry, on the beach cheering, and in different clothes than the IC pics) Her cheering with arms in the air tends to indicate victory. Second, this challenge favors the smaller more agile females. Can you imagine trying to get around the fat bellies of Lea, Bubba, Rory, and Chris in that order and without losing your balance or causing them to lose theirs? On the other hand the women have to deal with Lisa’s fake gazumbas, but even still, the women have the clear edge.
For more pictures and in depth discussion about the reward challenge you can find it on this thread.
Also, from SeeBS misdirection we know:
- A tribe deals with very grim conditions as one castaway has a tearful meltdown after finding maggots in the tribe's food.
- A wild chicken wanders into the Yasur camp and sends the hungry tribe into a frenzy as they try to catch the chicken with a machete.
- One Survivor tries to take advantage of tensions between two tribe-mates after a loss at the Reward Challenge.
- Two castaways think they are the swing vote, leading to a very unpredictable Tribal Council.
1) If the women in fact win food in the reward challenge, it would take roughly 8-20 hours in warm conditions for maggots to emerge from eggs. (Thanks Witless for this info) What is odd here is that usually a reward challenge food prize is something that can be quickly consumed (steaks that must be grilled immediately) or naturally preserved (like rice for example, if kept dry). My guess is that they win a basket of fruit and they don’t eat it all right away.
2) Could be any of the women, but sounds like it will be funny to watch!
3) A few theories abound about whether the “tensions between two tribe-mates” was due to something that happened at the RC, or in fact from the previous votes at Tribal Council. There is mention of Lea or Rory being the instigator, but more think it is Brady that tries to take advantage of the tension he sees between those two. Since Brady now feels that he is on the outside looking in, he could be trying to create a diversion this week and play on Rory’s anger.
4) I’ll get back to the swing vote comment after telling you about the IC.
In the mean time, check out the thread that Fester started here.
The Immunity Challenge
The immunity challenge is a beefed up version of “The Blind Leading The Blind” challenge that was seen in S8 All Stars. We know that this is the IC because of this picture that shows Mia, Scout, and Dolly walking in with the II. They are in the same clothes shown in the challenge caps:
This time the players are not only blindfolded, they are tethered to each other with rope in groups of 2 or 3 each. The pieces that they are searching for are not blocks, they are flat pieces to a puzzle. Each tribe has a caller that is not blindfolded, Lea for Lopevi and Scout for Yasur. They need to direct the blindfolded tethered groups to each puzzle piece, and have them bring it back to the raised platform base. Once all of the players and pieces are back at the base, they can remove their blindfolds (and ropes?) and work on the puzzle. The first tribe to construct their puzzle will win immunity.
From the vid-caps we can determine that the groups are:
Lopevi: Caller- Lea 1. Chad-Rory-Chris 2. Brady-Bubba 3. John P-John K
Yasur: Caller- Scout 1. Ami-Twila-Leann 2. Julie-Mia 3. Lisa-Eliza (Sitting out: Dolly)
In the first picture you get a good shot of Lea the drill sargent doing what he does best, yelling at men to follow his instructions. In the background of the 2nd picture you can see Dolly sitting on a bench, Scout is standing on the platform, and the group of three Ami-Twila-Leann are standing near Scout. In the foreground you see Chad-Rory-Chris on the way to the platform. The platform looks like it may have 2 levels to it, and the puzzle may have an upper and lower solution.
Why wouldn't Yasur let Dolly be the caller?
Because then it would be the "blond leading the blind" (ba-dum-dum)
Who wins Immunity, and who is booted?
The ladies so far have not been able to hide when they are happy, neither here can they hide the fact that they are sad. By the looks on their faces alone this points to bad news for the Yasur tribe.
Let's get back to the 4th part of SeeBS misdirection. The division between "Bowheads" and "Burly Girls" favors the bowheads 5-4, or does it? The quote from SeeBS- Two castaways think they are the swing vote, leading to a very unpredictable Tribal Council caused much speculation as to who would consider themselves a swing vote.
Lisa is 44 years old, and though she is youthful in appearance and hangs around the bowheads, by age alone she might feel obligated to the burly girl alliance. Dolly is young and attractive, but hardly fits the prissy sorority girl catagory, and she has been seen hanging around with Scout. If these two are the swing votes, that could explain why Dolly ends up being booted. Fence sitters and non-committers end up on the chopping block.
Other evidence for a Dolly boot:
1) Mickey Knocks and Snews both say so.
2) OFG theory as posted here.
Quick recap:
RC: Yasur wins, Scout sits out
IC: Lopevi wins, Dolly sits out
Boot: Dolly
Long Term Spoiler/Speculation Threads
Much of MB's success with Survivor is that he knows how to tell a story with the editing. Keep an eye on VerucaSalt and "The Players, the Game, the Editing" thread
Confessionals, especially those said early on in the game can usually give away who may eventually win. If you want to toss around this idea you can have a heyday in this thread.
Show me the money! Many times the gambling sites lead to good spoiler information. Let's keep this handy for quick future reference.
Often the opening theme has something in it that gives away the winner or the F2. That discussion can be found here
Next week is titled "Double Tribal, Double Trouble" and discussion is well on the way here. Will we have our first big surprise of the season?
Last but not least
Big thanks to MarcoPolo who in the past has done a terrific job of posting the insider transcripts here for us. Your absense is noticed. Tribephyl was kind enough to fill in and give us Episode 1.
And that is it! It was a great week of spoiling, kudos to all the folks that shared their ideas and brainstormed so that we could come up with all of this, nice job!
2004 A S S Trivia Champ
S9 PTB is Here, It's hot!!!!!
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