LAST EDITED ON 12-10-12 AT 07:08 PM (EST)I don't think my opinion is the only one that matters but, on the subject of Survivor strategy, I've exchanged with many people including some that went on the show so I do have an idea on the best course of action.
Overcoming a pagonging situation is not easy but it isn't impossible and this doesn't even apply to Jonathan in this iteration of the game.
I'll use that situation though to say that some players have won despite entering the merge down in numbers. They all had one thing in common: They took every opportunity to make new bonds instead of making enemies.
I don't know how Danni managed to get production's agreement for her birthday party but that was a stroke of genius.
Chris wouldn't have won if he hadn't made Final 2 deals with Julie and Twila when they were on Lopevi.
JT managed to charm everyone.
Natalie became friends with most of Galu.
The first one to show us the importance of making friends was Tina. She was in Jerri's five person alliance from the start but she still was very close to Mad Dog and Keith. After the merge, she made new bonds with Lis and Rodger.
More recently, Kim was able to be friends with everyone. Not just her women's alliance or Troyzan and Jay but also Colton, Monica, Christina and even Michael. There would have been very few rearrangements of tribes that would have put her in danger.
These people (and I'll add Brian, Tom, Danni, Yul, Earl and Todd) were unifiers: They tried to work with everyone on their tribe. They didn't create divisions until it was time to vote someone out and then, more often than not, they decided who went. All played the game with an appearance of calm, of composure: The others saw they had a plan and that they weren't affected by the conditions. Needing security, the others joined in.
Jonathan is a divider. We learned that from his title quote in his very first episode: "I can forgive her but I don't have to because she screwed with my chickens." Right there and then, we were introduced to a marvelously entertaining but polarizing player.
It continued when he argued with Adam about the shelter and it culminated when, on an impulse, he mutinied. Dumb Player.
Micronesia was more of the same when, in episode 1 he said: “I think we should take Parvati out first. Parvati is a much bigger threat as a social player than Ozzy is..."
That, right there, created an unnecessary fracture in Malakal and his allies, Yau Man, Ami and Eliza never recovered.
This season, he should have known that there'd be an anti-returning player sentiment. It came up the first time returnees played with newbies when the new players said that BJ and Steph didn't deserve a second chance. Penner should have gathered his tribe on Day 1 and told them that they needed to play as a unit: Kalabaw first. Coach thought of it and, strangely, that sort of message could have worked on Kent.
I laughed when you wrote this about Jane: "She just never had a solid alliance in the game, completely misunderstood some crucial aspects of Survivor." I laughed because that is exactly my reproach of Penner's game.