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RyrieRae 416 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 05-04-04, 08:10 PM (EST) "Jenna and Tom are Swing Votes" As far as we've seen, here are the variations of the remaining alliances: 1)Rob and Amber 2)Jenna and Rupert 3)Rob and Amber with Rupert and Jenna 4)Rob, Amber and Jenna 5)Rob, Amber and Tom 6)Rupert and Tom If this week we see a 2 against 2 vote, there will be someone as a swing vote. In both alliance speculations involving only 3 people (4&5), Tom or Jenna would play the role of a swing vote. To further explain, here are some variations of what we may see this week: 1)Rupert & Jenna + Tom(as the swing vote)will vote out Rob or Amber. 2)Rob & Amber + Tom(as the swing vote) will vote out Rupert or Jenna. 3)Rob & Amber + Jenna(as the swing vote) will vote out Rupert or Tom. No one else other than Tom and Jenna could be a swing vote based on the alliances we have been shown. So, we will either see a 4-1 vote eliminating Tom (assuming he does not win Immunity) or a 3-2 vote using one of the swing votes as mentioned. There is the possibility of a 2-2-1 tie vote, but I don't see this as likely at all. The significance of my posting this is that I believe of the three possible 3-2 votes, Rob and Amber will be kept safe, because at this point, Tom and Jenna believe they could beat either of them in Final 2. If Tom and Jenna play smart they will recognize this moment as one where they can take control of the game as a swing vote.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Jenna and Tom are Swing Votes RyrieRae 05-04-04 1    RE: Jenna and Tom are Swing Votes dabo 05-04-04 2  RE: Jenna and Tom are Swing Votes Scarlett O Hara 05-04-04 3    RE: Jenna and Tom are Swing Votes mom04 05-04-04 4        RE: Jenna and Tom are Swing Votes RyrieRae 05-05-04 5  RE: Jenna and Tom are Swing Votes JohnMc 05-05-04 6    RE: Jenna and Tom are Swing Votes big tom fan 05-06-04 7        RE: Jenna and Tom are Swing Votes JohnMc 05-06-04 8

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RyrieRae 416 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 05-04-04, 08:54 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Jenna and Tom are Swing Votes" ... Just wanted to add... Rob and Amber would most likely bring in Jenna as the swing vote because of her, Tom, and Rupert, she is the one they can most likely beat (and will)   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-04-04, 08:59 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Jenna and Tom are Swing Votes" I agree, Rob would definitely prefer to keep Jenna over Rupert, and Amber wanted to take out Rupert several episodes back.   Top

Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 05-04-04, 09:54 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Jenna and Tom are Swing Votes" RR my dear, You are forgetting to factor in one simple thing to the mix -- Immunity and whose got it. If Rupert has Immunity (which I believe he will have): Rupert/Jenna/Tom could vote out Amber or ROB (It would be Rob) Rob/Amber/Tom could vote out Jenna (Rupert won't vote for her) Rupert/Rob/Amber/Jenna could vote out Tom. If Rob wins Immunity: Rupert/Jenna/Tom could vote out Amber Rob/Amber/Tom could vote out Rupert or Jenna (it would be Rupert) Rob/Amber/Jenna/Rupert could vote out Tom. IMHO, Tom will be the next survivor voted off. Scarlett   Top

mom04 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-04-04, 11:36 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Jenna and Tom are Swing Votes" THis discussion is pointless. Remember that Rupert said he doesn't care who goes, as long as its not him. That will hold true this week. Tom is the outsider, he will go, and the Final four will be the 2 couples. THen it will just be a matter of immunity and who gets it! THis is so fun!   Top

RyrieRae 416 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 05-05-04, 09:26 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Jenna and Tom are Swing Votes" Scarlett, Okay, so it seems the two likely contenders for Immunity this week are Rob or Rupert. It is quite obvious that Tom is an outsider and will be voted out. But let's get back to my original thread about swing votes and how this will come in to play in THIS EPISODE ONLY. In almost every variation, it seems that Tom will go unless he wins immunity. Then what? This is where the swing vote comes in to play. Will... 1) Romber vote out Jenna or Rupert? 2) Rupenna vote our Rob or Amber? 3) Jenna jump ship and vote with Romber and Tom against Rupe? Or if Tom does not win Immunity, will Jenna play her "swing vote" card, join Romber and ensure a F3 spot versus a shaky F4 spot?   Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 05-05-04, 03:50 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Jenna and Tom are Swing Votes" LAST EDITED ON 05-05-04 AT 03:54 PM (EST) Great analysis of the swing vote, Rae. Someone had mentioned that immunity could throw a wrench into this mix. I have to say that I disagree with that. Immunity only changes the permutations, but not the swing votes. The alliances mentioned by Rae are still intact, and it doesn't change because of immunity. The swing votes are still Tom and Jenna. All of your scenarios show that Rupert is the most vulnerable. Rob and Amber only need either Tom or Jenna, and not necessarily both, in order to vote Rupert out. The only situation that allows for Rob or Amber to be voted out involves Rupert and Jenna and Tom all working together. The thing that prevents this from being likely are all of the ties that Romber has to each one of them. Rupert and Jenna, on the other hand, have to agree to break their alliances with Romber and have Tom break his alliance. Now for any of the 3 of Rupert/Jenna/Tom, they can actually benefit a little longer by sticking around with Romber. Jupert can stay till F4 at least, and one definitely makes F3. And Tom can stick around at least one more round if he sticks with Romber. (The problem, though, with any of this is that Romber can vote any of those three out right now, too, meaning that instead of F3, they get booted at F5!) The best move for R/J/T is to take out Romber now, whichever one doesn't win immunity. Period, dot, end of discussion. The best move for Romber is to decide who they want to take out, and make sure that they have 2 people in their corner, in case one backs out. So their best move is to get Jupert to take out Tom in case Rupert decides he wants to side with Tom. It's really not much more than a chess game at this point. Each move creates a different scenario for what is the best next move to make. But that's how I'm calling it for strategy. Not necessarily spoiling, but definitely a strategy discussion. edit to add: <<There is the possibility of a 2-2-1 tie vote, but I don't see this as likely at all.>> While this is a possibility, the second vote will break the tie. The second vote requires voting for one of the two that is tied, and thus the tie is broken. Someone is still a swing vote.   Top

big tom fan 15 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 05-06-04, 11:05 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Jenna and Tom are Swing Votes" john mc if it was 2-2-1 what would the votes most likely be?   Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 05-06-04, 11:37 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Jenna and Tom are Swing Votes" I just don't see it as a possibility. Let's look at all the configurations of winning immunity: Rob wins IC: Rob - Tom or Rupert Amber - Tom or Rupert Rupert - Tom Jenna - Tom Tom - Rupert Amber wins IC: Rob - Tom or Rupert Amber - Tom or Rupert Rupert - Tom or Rob Jenna - Tom or Rob Tom - Rupert or Rob Rupert wins immunity Rob - Tom Amber - Tom Rupert - Tom or Rob Jenna - Tom or Rob Tom - Rob Jenna wins immunity Rob - Tom or Rupert Amber - Tom or Rupert Rupert - Tom or Rob Jenna - Tom or Rob or Rupert Tom - Rob or Rupert Tom wins immunity: Rob - Rupert Amber - Rupert Rupert - Rob Jenna - Rob or Rupert Tom - Rob or Rupert (probably Rupert) In any case, the girls are definitely safe. And there really isn't even a third person to vote for. It's against smart playing. The guys are targets this time, and the girls need to team up with one of their alliances and vote along with them. Anything else is just stupid.   Top

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