LAST EDITED ON 04-06-12 AT 04:10 AM (EST)

We have seen this 100 times: lots of misdirection and smoke and mirrors meant to build fake suspense for what is really an extremely predictable boot.

Based off Aruba's list, he appeared to buy the smoke and mirrors.

I said to my wife one second after Jonas was booted: Michael will be targeted next. I also stated that in this forum several times. With both the women having the majority and Salani having the 7-4 advantage, Michael was toast as soon as he didn't win immunity.

1. Kim - It was clearly her episode, and this is her season to lose. The only question remains: does she get the BLAME for her duplicity or the CREDIT? Mike said in his exit interview that he didn't appreciate all the lying, but he also said his ouster was "well-crafted." She might become a victim of playing too hard. The lie to Troy was unnecessary. She had the votes to boot Michael without him, and Troy didn't like him anyway. The "suspense" with Jay was also unnecessary. He voted for Michael in the end. Like I said, all smoke and mirrors for nothing. It COULD cost her votes in the end. However, we have seen since the days of Todd that you can lie and backstab all you want as long as you are LIKABLE.

2. Chelsea - Still clear #2. Sorry. Everyone else's story has completely taken a backseat. Troy looks like an idiot. Jay hardly better. Sabrina has regressed to the shadows. Chelsea still gets a prime chunk of the story, though much of it still centered on her issues with Tarzan. Why? Is his vote the one that costs her? Perhaps. Her asking Jay about voting for Michael in the shelter was just more smoke and mirrors. It meant nothing. Christina and Alicia would have been 100% down with voting for Michael, who was never with them, and in the end, Jay voted for Michael himself. So, meaningless. That is how Chelsea plays- straightforward. It is a strategy just as sound as Kim's deception. It is often appreciated by juries. Chelsea said afterwards that she had gotten every reward up until then, so she didn't mind that some other people got to eat. She just hates losing. Just another thing I respect about her. Lastly, they're not "fake," they're enhanced, and though she certainly didn't need it, she'll get no judgemental BS from me. Thumbs up.

3. Sabrina - Got her confessional, got another reward, and to me, per the edit, a Sabrina, Kim and Chelsea F3 seems very possible.

4. Jay - Great immunity win. Since he doesn't have the HII, he had no choice but to acquiesce to the women. They had the numbers with or without him. I make him a heavy underdog to turn the tables on the women. It isn't in the edit, and the previews suggesting it make it even less likely.

5. Troy - Mike made it clear that he and Troy never cared for each other. This explains why he bought Kim's story so easily. For all we know, it wasn't even a story. Maybe Mike really was floating the idea of going after Troy. Regardless, there is nothing wrong with getting rid of Michael, but it doesn't cure the problem that started with voting out Jonas. He is going to have one shot to play his HII right. I bet he goes home with it.

6. Christina - I was really glad she got a reward. She is in big trouble now that the big target is gone. Don't buy the edit next week either. Her getting the boot doesn't mean the guys are making a comeback. The guys being down to four makes her expendable.

7. Kat - Could finally get some play next week. We will see. She has a very quiet and yet impactful edit.

8. Lief - Congrats on the reward. I'm glad he got it. The fact that he voted for Michael shows that only Tarzan was on the outs. The women likely voted for Tarzan as a charade to throw off the men from believing the women are united. Again, unnecessary.

9. Alicia - The amazing vanishing edit. Her best kind.

10. Tarzan - Social boob completely left out of the circle but again. A woman doesn't like you so you confront her about her boob job. Good thinking.

PONDEROSA participate #2-

Jonas - Props for no eye-rolling and no hysterics. Good man.

MICHAEL - Don't these people watch Survivor? Yeah, I say it every season. If you are the biggest threat in challenges, and you aren't wearing immunity, and it is post merge, YOU are not safe. Pretty simple equation.

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