"How long would Tom have survived if Ian had wanted him gone as soon as the game became individual?"

When Palau merged and the game became an individual contest, Tom won the first two ICs post-merge...so Tom initially survives on HIS OWN doing. I will never dispute his charismatic personality contributed to his victory, but the PRIMARY (not to be confused with ONLY reason) Tom emerges as the sole Survivor in Palau is because he won 5 out of the 7 individual ICs that season.

"F6. Brian wouldn't have won if Helen, Jan and Ted had decided to get rid of Clay. They won because they had made the right alliances."

I know you meant to say they got rid of "Jake" in the F6. Jake's elimination was all about "pagonging." His boot completed a run of seven straight TCs where a Sook Jai member was voted out. This was more a case of Chuay Gahn using its numbers advantage than "making the right alliances." But once the pagonging was complete and Chuay Gahn was forced to "eat their own" in the F5, what did Brian do? He went on to win the last three ICs to put himself in the Finals, take the perfect goat with him, and win the game.

I can understand why Manono's decision to go to TC even though they won IC will be talked about because the FIRST of anything generally gets remembered the most. Some have even dub it the "dumbest move ever." Personally I don't think it was even the dumbest move of the season. A much dumber move IMHO was the Frat Pack 4 NOT recruiting Troy immediately to give them the one-man advantage in the original nine-man tribe. And why didn't they---the greatest divide in reality show history: AGE!

Yes we all know now Troy does not act or look 50, but guess what...he IS 50. There's absolutely, positively, and indisputablly NOOOO doubt in my mind if Troy was 20-25 years younger the Frat Pack 4 jump all over him like a hungry dog on a T-bone steak...or as Sabrina would say, like a "fat kid on cake." But once again the greatest divide in Reality Show reared its ugly head. As a result, Matt, Bill, Michael, and probably eventually Jay will pay dearly for that oversight.