1. Troy (5, 9, 1, 5, 5, 3)
I think we can reduce the number of potential winners down to two, possibly three. Troy remains to be the only guy with a decent shot at winning, but I think his game now largely depends on how Kim, Sabrina, and Chelsea vote next episode. He now has the HII, but even that can only save him in one TC. Still, good performance in both challenges, and appears well-liked by both original tribes.

2. Kim (10, 3, 2, 3, 1, 1)
I think it’s safe to say that Kim is going to make the end-game. She remains in the center of a number of potential alliances and has an HII as a just-in-case. She and Chelsea should play a crucial role in how the season will progress.

3. Chelsea (1, 4, 4, 6, 2, 6)

4. Michael (6, 6, 10, 7, 6, 10)
The guy doesn’t have an alliance (at least not one that’s visible to us), but he’s already destroyed two, and I think that deserves a mention.

5. Kat (12, 15, 12, 9, 10, 7)
For someone who’s been labeled as “weak”, she sure did well in both challenges this episode.

6. Sabrina (2, 1, 5, 1, 3, 2)

7. Jay (7, 10, 6, 4, 4, 5)

8. Christina (3, 7, 8, 8, 12, 4)
Moves here by default. She did get a new lease in life with the merge, and she can now try playing under the radar, at least until one solid alliance emerges.

9. Leif (8, 8, 9, 12, 7, 9)
I think Kim’s best move right now is to get rid of another NuManono member, and Leif should fit that bill quite well.

10. Alicia (17, 14, 13, 10, 11, 12)
There’s very little reason to move her up.

11. Greg (11, 13, 14, 14, 13, 11)
He’s Phillip part deux, down to the disgusting underwear.

Out:
Jonas (4, 5, 3, 11, 9, 8) – Jonas did not handle the Greg situation well, and it eventually led to his demise. He knew that Greg was a loose cannon, and he should have known that a little finesse would have gone a long way with dealing with Greg.

Colton (15, 16, 11, 13, 8)
Monica (9, 2, 7, 2)
Bill (13, 11, 15)
Matt (16, 12)
Nina (14)
Kourtney