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magic_star 2400 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 06-08-03, 03:48 AM (EST) "Do the Previews Mean Anything? Maybe so..." LAST EDITED ON 06-12-03 AT 11:44 PM (EST) I've looked through all of the previews from TAR 2 through TAR 4, episode 2, to see if they mean anything when a team is shown. And here are the results... I don't have season one taped, so I can't do those ones. But I think it's better to do the more recent ones anyways. I've also excluded the episode ones since we only get commercial previews on those episodes. The Amazing Race 2 Episode 2: Blake/Paige Argue, Peggy/Clair express concerns over hang gliding, Shola/Doyin gets foot ran over. Eliminated Team: Hope/Norm Shown and Eliminated(SE): 0, Not Shown and Eliminated(NSE): 1 Episode 3: Peggy/Claire oversleep and Blake doesn't wake them. Wil has problems with their alliance with Chris/Alex. Eliminated Team: Peggy/Claire SE: 1 NSE: 1 It's a tie! Episode 4: Shola/Doyin's car gets stuck in the sand, Alex says his team is screwed, Gary jokes around with Tara/Wil, Tara slides down the sand. Eliminated Team: Shola/Doyin SE: 2 NSE: 1 Being shown takes over the lead! Episode 5: Wil/Blake argue, Blake/Paige go to the wrong temple in Bangkok, Gary/Dave kick Chris/Alex from cart to cart, Cindi yells in bat cave. Eliminated Team: Russell/Cindi SE: 3 NSE: 1 Being shown is starting to break out! Episode 6: Mary/Peach argue, Gary/Dave argue, Gary/Dave and Mary/Peach face off on rafts, Wil wants to separate from Chris/Alex. Last: Chris/Alex Not an elimination, so it won't count. Episode 7: Gary yells at Dave, Peach gives up in Hong Kong, Blake makes a mistake at the roadblock. Eliminated Team: Mary/Peach SE: 4 NSE: 1 Episode 8-9: Danny/Oswald go shopping, Gary/Dave complain, Tara/Wil and Blake/Paige mess up the Roadblock. Eliminated Team: Gary/Dave SE: 5 NSE: 1 Episode 10: Blake/Paige in boat, Oswald and Chris herd sheep, Wil faces fear of heights. Last: Oswald/Danny Not an elimination, so it won't count. Episode 11: Wil makes a decision about his future with Tara. Chris/Alex chase Danny/Oswald down repel. Paige battles on four-wheeler. Eliminated Team: Danny/Oswald Won't count since all of the teams were shown. Episode 12-13: Varied Previews, Final Episode No Elimination So right now the count is... Shown and Eliminated: 5, Not Shown and Eliminated: 1 The Amazing Race 3 Episode 2: Derek/Drew have navigation problems and argue, Aaron and Arianne loosen up(Arianne takes off her clothes), Teri/Ian fall off of ski doo. Eliminated Team: Tramel/Talicia SE: 5 NSE: 2 Episode 3: Derek/Drew unwind, Ken/Gerard fall in creek and lose their paddle, Dennis/Andrew on army tank. Eliminated: Dennis/Andrew SE: 6 NSE: 2 Episode 4: Teri/Ian yell, Aaron makes fun of Ian, Andrew/Damon yell "Watch out, American Driver", Heather/Eve wreck, Ian says this is when they need to suck it up. Eliminated Team: Heather/Eve SE: 7 NSE: 2 Episode 5: Flo crys on the Portugal cliff; Michael/Kathy, Flo/Zach, Aaron/Arianne, and Teri/Ian get the wrong gas. Eliminated Team: Michael/Kathy SE: 8 NSE: 2 Episode 6: Ian and Flo argue, Aaron crashes on motorcycle vehicle; Ken, Derek, and Jill running in Roadblock. Eliminated Team: Aaron/Arianne SE: 9 NSE: 2 Episode 7: Flo trys to make sure Andre/Damon don't get on a flight, Derek/Drew argue, Ken/Gerard's car breaks down. Eliminated Team: Andre/Damon SE: 10 NSE: 2 Episode 8: John/Jill lie to Teri/Ian, Ken questions Flo/Zach's relationship, Teri's pants fall down. Last: John/Jill Not an elimination, so it won't count. Episode 9-10: Teri crashes bike, Flo yells at Zach, Derek/Drew argue. Eliminated Team: John/Jill SE: 10 NSE: 3 Episode 11: Derek/Drew run in the rain, Flo and Ken are in their raincoats, Ian asks for nook nook, Flo yells at Zach, Ken/Gerard fall off cart. Eliminated Team: Derek/Drew Won't count since all of the teams were shown. Episode 12-13: Varied Previews, Final Three No Elimination So right now the count is... Shown and Eliminated: 10, Not Shown and Eliminated: 3 The Amazing Race 4 Episode 2: Chris/Amanda go down raft hill, Kelly/Jon leave equiptment behind, David/Jeff must go backwards on gondolas, Monica in trouble on Roadblock. Eliminated Team: Chris/Amanda SE: 11 NSE: 3 Episode 3: Mille has an asthma attack, Millie/Chuck miss a train, Millie calls Chip a jerk, Tian bungee jumps. Also shown but not featured: Jon/Al, Steve/Josh Eliminated Team: Russell/Cindy SE:11 NSE: 4 Final count so far... Shown and Eliminated: 11 Not Shown and Eliminated: 4 Episode 4: Chuck has a panic attack at a highspeed Roadblock. Tian/Jaree cause a showdown. Steve/Dave negatively inform Tian/Jaree to check their tires before they leave. Also Shown, but not featured: David/Jeff, Reichen/Chip, Monica/Sheree, Jon/Al Not Shown: Kelly/Jon, Steve/Josh Not going to be much of a help at all this week since practically all of the teams were shown except two. But I guess it depends if you count unfeatured teams or not. I was actually only looking for teams that were doing things in my original look at all of the previews. So if they're shown, it's a bad thing. Not a good thing! In addition, nine of the shown eliminated ones were previewed in a negative way. The only ones that were somewhat positive were Dennis/Andre on the tank and Chris/Amanda on the raft. So they're not trying to trick you when they show someone in trouble. I'll try to update this later in the season or maybe we can keep track of it each week. T-Mac hits the three! Magic Win! Magic Win!   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    Nice Work Star... IceCat 06-08-03 1  So if I understand this correctly..... sleeeve 06-08-03 2    RE: So if I understand this correct... magic_star 06-08-03 4  You rock!!!! GTmike 06-08-03 3  RE: Do the Previews Mean Anything? ... Jims02 06-08-03 5  Nice work! TeamJoisey 06-09-03 6    RE: Nice work! Survivorerist 06-09-03 7        RE: Nice work! managerr 06-09-03 8            RE: Nice work! magic_star 06-09-03 9  RE: Do the Previews Mean Anything? ... magic_star 06-12-03 10    RE: Do the Previews Mean Anything? ... railfan 06-13-03 11        RE: Do the Previews Mean Anything? ... magic_star 06-13-03 12

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 06-08-03, 06:23 AM (EST) 1. "Nice Work Star..." It's sort of like the TAR version of the OFG theory!   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 06-08-03, 12:22 PM (EST) 2. "So if I understand this correctly..." LAST EDITED ON 06-08-03 AT 12:24 PM (EST) With just a few exceptions, the eliminated team is shown in the preview... So star, since you did all of this work... according to this week's previews, who could be eliminated, and who is your most likely candidate (based on preview alone)?   Top

magic_star 2400 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 06-08-03, 03:33 PM (EST) 4. "RE: So if I understand this correctly..." LAST EDITED ON 06-08-03 AT 03:35 PM (EST) Based on this week's preview, I would say either Tian/Jaree or Millie/Chuck will be eliminated. Most likely Millie/Chuck. But three other teams(Steve/Josh, Jon/Al, Reichen/Chip) were also shown, so it could be them. T-Mac hits the three! Magic Win! Magic Win!   Top

GTmike 1255 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 06-08-03, 01:21 PM (EST) 3. "You rock!!!!" Hey magic, you rock!! GREAT analysis. This should make spoiling more fun and make the AE game more challenging!! Thanks for all your hard work! Could you edit to add the previews for ep.3 so that we can kinda look at what to expect this coming show and see how this summary compares with the others? m_s rocks!!   Top

Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 06-08-03, 10:11 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Do the Previews Mean Anything? Maybe so..." I just wanted to come out of lurkdom for a sec to congratulate star on his great post! Have you noticed that when the eliminees are shown in the previews, in many cases CBS misdirects us away? Well, yeah, we knew that already. I'm thinking that maybe we should consider picking the team that looks like they're in danger, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS ANOTHER TEAM. Since Reichen/Chip meets up with Millie/Chuck, you can tell there's going to be some bunching, as usual. I think the main focus of the preview is "OMG, Millie/Chuck are in trouble!!!" But we don't necessarily know where/when this happens. So, I'm going against all reasonable logic and assuming they're safe. It's curious that Tian/Jaree are in the previews. I'm betting on them this week. Or maybe Reichen/Chip. In Honor of Summary Writers... 9. "Matthew: DINNER!" -Anotherkim 10. "Janet misplaces her granola bar. Granolagate!" -Swami 11. CARLA: "C'mon...do something! They just do jackbleep" -dabo 12. "Christy-Ella!!! Come over here and trust us." -GuessItRains 13. Butch: "I guess I’m just a wood crazy nut" -Supes   Top

TeamJoisey 3558 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 06-09-03, 00:05 AM (EST) 6. "Nice work!" Star, I can't believe you did all this analysis. (Maybe YOU need analysis!) This is very interesting. The running assumption has always been that teams featured in the commercials are safe. You prove just the opposite. This is what spoiler boards are all about. You rock! And, uh, get a life man, willya? TJ These reality show contestants need a reality check!   Top

Survivorerist 4103 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 06-09-03, 00:11 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Nice work!" First of all, excellent work star! And secondly TJ... >>>This is very interesting. The running assumption has always been that teams featured in the commercials are safe. You prove just the opposite<<< I did notice that 2 out of the 3 times that the shown teams were all safe, it occurred when pure probability dictated it would happen (i.e. more than half the teams weren't shown) I did do an entire mathematical analysis of it and had the probability that the 11 Shown eliminees (and possibly more) would all be eliminated by chance was about 2 hundreths of a percent, but then I realized that I made a calculation error. Maybe if I have enough time I will try and recalculate it again. I also have a hunch that the probability of a shown team getting eliminated 11 out of 14 times will be decently higher than .02%, but I'll have to redo the calculations to check that out. (Another IceCat original )   Top

managerr 1959 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 06-09-03, 11:11 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Nice work!" I really really think Millie and Chuck are safe for awhile. On the Early Show, when talking about Millie and Chuck, Phil said they had problems with their relationship due to the race. So far we haven't seen anything. Unless this happens all in one episode, I don't see them going for awhile. Plus they were one of the teams spotted in the Malaysia Airport Usenet spoiler. Phil's comments on Tian/Jaree also made me think they were safe last week.   Top

magic_star 2400 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 06-09-03, 12:01 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Nice work!" Well if everything goes as it appears it is, Millie/Chuck will probably face alot of tests this week. As for the Malaysia spoiler, the blonde could always be Tian. It said they were a couple team, so maybe she just happened to be near, say Jon at the time and the person thought they were a team. T-Mac hits the three! Magic Win! Magic Win!   Top

magic_star 2400 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 06-12-03, 09:59 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Do the Previews Mean Anything? Maybe so..." Updated list above. T-Mac hits the three! Magic Win! Magic Win!   Top

railfan 450 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 06-13-03, 06:28 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Do the Previews Mean Anything? Maybe so..." Thanks for the update. Shouldn't we count any new promos that run through the week? Knowing you didn't have those available for your research, bet that would boost the probabiliities even more. It wasn't until the weekend promos that we saw Team ATC in trouble, with the train issue out of Venice. As the research shows, it's generally about 3 of every 4 times that the team in trouble in the promo is eliminated. Last night was apparently the odd time.   Top

magic_star 2400 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 06-13-03, 02:38 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Do the Previews Mean Anything? Maybe so..." Yeah, I was only doing the research with the end of episode previews. I'm not really sure if the week ones would make a difference or not. But there's a chance that every team might be shown at some point in a preview this week, so I'm just going with the end of episode previews. I guess it really depends if you want to count teams just standing with the crowd, which I didn't do in the earlier research. T-Mac hits the three! Magic Win! Magic Win!   Top

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