LAST EDITED ON 02-29-12 AT 11:24 PM (EST)
That's a WHOLE lot of conjecture right there.
If Parvati goes, Cirie's game is TOTALLY different. Parvati formed the BWB thanks to her connection with Batalie and Alexis. Take her away and there is no BWB. If she plays the same game as EI and sticks with her 5, then Eliza and Ami certainly choose to take each other to the Finals rather than her.
In the end, she is still stuck with the same problem: she's too likable to take to the Finals and can't win a challenge to get there herself. Really, she's similar to Russell in that regard: one fatal flaw, can go far but can't win.
EI - Can't say that. Cirie isn't wining that FIC. So, that assumes Aras beats Terry. Can't assume that just because it happened once. If you did that challenge 10 times, Terry probably wins it 7.
FvF - That assumes Cirie wins the vote. I don't see it. Parvati still gets her buddies Batalie, Alexis and Jason's vote. Cirie gets James and Eliza, and Amanda still gets Ozzy and Erik. Jason was never on a tribe with Cirie and had no reason to vote for her. And really, I don't necessarily buy that Eliza wouldn't have voted for Parvati either, but I'll give her the benefit there cause it wouldn't change the result anyway.