As for early moves being remembered, he probably knew he couldn't win the moment the twist was announced.
I'm not following why everyone living on the same beach means an automatic defeat for Colton. Is it because there will be women around, making it tempting for Colton to defect? Because if that's the case, then it's Colton's fault for being a whiny four year old without impulse control.
If you're talking about the men/women twist, then again, this is Colton digging his own grave with his very first comments in the game. I don't know how anyone can justify what Colton did right there as a good move, gendered tribes or not.
Honestly, I'm not even going to give him credit for getting the immunity idol either. I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but it's just a little too much to buy that Colton goes around asking people for an idol and Sabrina just happens to have one she can't use herself. Give me a break. If I had a producer asking me, "Why don't you start asking the girls?" then I'd look like a manipulative genius too. Ah, the magic of hinting.
Colton's obviously going to go far in the game but it's not because he knows what he's doing.
A 2003 IceCat original