The biggest bit of evidence I've had thrown in my face when I stated that throwing a challenge is always a bad idea is Ethan and Mama Kim. The difference? This was to get rid of an enemy from another original tribe, a.k.a. it was post-swap. Throwing the challenge was useful to gain numbers.

In this case? Absolutely a dangerous move. For one thing, as spotty as Russell's performance is at camp, his performance in challenges is pretty solid. Also, on the other team? Oh yea, this guy called Boston Rob. What's to say Ometepe doesn't get back into it? Morgan did. Old Aitu had NO jurors and only got Ozzy to the end based on his inclusion in what might be the most successful underdog alliance ever.

Also, Russell may be a dangerous player, but he's a paper tiger who's playing the same game he did in both Samoa AND Heroes vs. Villains. He's predictable. Getting rid of him removes a constant from the equation. It also keeps him from being forced to play in a situation in which he's unfamiliar - that of a dominant tribe. Foa Foa merged down 8-4 and dominated. The Villains merged even with the Heroes and walked all over them. If Zapatera merges with a four-player advantage over Ometepe, all of a sudden, Russell's lost in a sea of tribemates with no idol to save him. Especially with Ralph holding the idol. Better to toy with him and cut him loose when your tribe's strength doesn't depend on numbers than to throw a challenge and risk your advantage, all the while keeping seven other possible wild cards whose game is somewhat unfamiliar around.

Zapatera's going to regret voting off Russell. If Drake keeps their boot on Morgan's throat, they may merge up 7-3 or 8-2 and even partially prevent the debacle that was the Outcasts, Osten is even more pathetic, and the final is all Drake. If Aitu decides to let Billy live and cut his throat later, Hiki likely has to ditch someone, Billy eventually digs his own grave, and the original Aitu make their way into a few higher places. Also, they may not have to deal with Yul quite as much. Also, almost forgot Sook Jai - could have kept stomping on the old guys. But they screwed it up, and the repulsive Chuay Gahn tribe dominated.

Make a note for future winning tribes: Koror didn't throw challenges.