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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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I haven't been able to participate in much discussion this week, but here goes -- stealing a page from Lex, I'm going to go with my gut on this...

Reward Challenge

The reward challenge looks like a series of diving heat races, capped off by a heavy crate race -- the first one to drag a crate from the ocean to shore wins. Interestingly the skills need to succeed in the "diving" qualification races probably differ substantially from the main "beast of burden" skill that appears to be required for the final race -- creating a situation where a physically weak competitor or two who are excellent swimmers might be facing off versus a Rupert or Big Tom in the final round.

Working from that theory, it makes sense that if Big Tom or Rupert, the biggest oxen left in the game, make it to the final round, they'll win it handily. The only question is what are the odds they get to the final race featuring only 3 of the original 9 contenders? Given Rupert's well-known fishing skill, for Rupert, they are probably pretty good. Given that pervert Tom will probably be too distracted looking at all the "pruti women" to focus on swimming, not so good for him. Rupert seems like the favorite here.

REWARD CHALLENGE WINNER: RUPERT

Immunity Challenge / Bootee

Individual immunity is finally here... but way too late to help save the Chapera from themselves (or at least from Lex.) Immunity is some type of underwater sink-and-swim thing, so only loudmouth, big-lunged folks need apply. Few folks on the planet have bigger mouths than Survivor's resident construction worker from Boston, making him the most likely winner. Ya, Big Tom and Rupert are also in the running, but unlike them, Rob is actually in shape.

As far as who's going, Lex pretty much finished Chapera's tribicide with last week's ousting of one of their own rather than Amber in an attempt to pay homage to the Robfadda. If anyone thinks Rob's word is worth anything, I heard he's also selling some great land in Florida... why keep Lex, Chapera's only remaining male threat, over Kathy or Shii-Ann -- it makes little sense. As does the idea that somehow Amber actually suddenly has something between the ears and will do little more than whatever Rob suggests.

Lex is gone... the merge is here and Lesson #1 of Survivor 101 is once you merge, you immediately begin booting the immunity challenge threats whenever you can... starting with those not in the dominant alliance (which Lex isn't in -- despite what he might want to think.) Lex's gut is wrong once again -- maybe it's time to think about having that thing removed.

To sum it up:

RC Winner: RUPERT
IC Winner: BOSTON ROB
Bootee: LEX