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"Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week"
shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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04-05-04, 03:55 PM (EST)
 
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"Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
In the previews we know that the ep starts out with Rob making an alliance with Alicia. Rob now has an alliance with everyone in the game EXCEPT Kathy and ShiAnn. Notice I left Lex out because I do feel that Rob has a limited alliance with Lex that will allow Lex to avoid at least the first post-merge boot.We also know that tehre will be a spirited convo post-merge between Kathy/Lex/Rob where Rob basically tells them that they don't have an alliance. At one point, Kathy even starts to cry (what a baby). The question I have is when does the merge take place....if the merge takes place at the IC then this convo has to be during the scramble leading up to the TC. Could this convo be Rob letting his "friend" Kathy know in advance that she is getting axed that night, at which point she and Lex try to accuse him of backstabbing and Rob counters that he only had promised to protect Lex and no one else. Remember, it was Amber who made a deal with Kathy, not Rob...and then in true MB fashion we saw a confessional with Amber saying that she may have to break her word to those people right away but at least she bought herself 3 more days in the game. Like others, I think the only possible boot candidates this week are Shi/Lex/Kathy. I don't think Alicia is goiing anywhere for a couple of reasons....one, not enough screen time yet and no story and secondly, I don't think old Chapera is going break its full tribal alliaice so early in the game while there are still Old MM's to pagong. Alicia will probably be the first OC to get the boot, but that won't be for at least two eps in my opinion. I don't think lex is going anywhere for a couple of reasons...one, what I said earlier about Rob honoring his word to Lex and also, I believe the spoilers about the mohawk and the family visit. We also have the spoiler about Lex and Shiann winning a reward. So, that leaves Kathy and ShiAnn. Of the two, Kathy is clearly the one to be feared in this game. She is the only one of the two that has shown any ability when it comes to forming alliances and politicking. Shi Ann's only attempts at politicking look like this..... 3 people sitting around a fire... ShiAnn: "Wow, Jerri is such a jerk and does no work around here...it sure would be nice if she wasn't here anymore" (then shi looks around at her tribemates to see if here little hint registered) That is the extent of ShiAnn's "powers" in this game.
Additionally, ShiAnn has gotten next to no screen time. I know, I know, she hasn't done anything to warrant screen time, but she's even getting out-whored by the pelican at this point so I don't think she goes anywhere yet.
Plus, we have the teddy bear pic and the rumor that Shi shares a reward with Lex. Plus, the long standing tradition of eliminating threats right after the merge. The only thing that gives me pause is that convo with Lex/Shi/Rob. If this comes during the pre-TC scramble this is alwasy the time when MB hits us with the misdirection boot...so if this convo points to a Kathy boot it could be misdirection. Remember Rich's "colby you must go bye bye" quote...a typical example of pre-tc misdirection. But, I can also argue against this poiint with the logic that this episode will be so full as it is there might not be time to set up the boot for a full hour and MB might skip the misdirection and instead concentrate on the scramble. For instance, even if Rob tells Kathy to her face that she is gone, it migh be such great TV that MB wants to leave it in there anyway even if it detracts from the suspense of TC. Also, that convo with Rob/LEx/kathy could lead to a Kex scramble where they try to convice members of OC to get rid of Rob...then MB could use Rob as the misdirection boot. Additionaly, the previews all set up the ep with the question of whether Rob will betray Lex...it says nothing about betraying Kathy. So, the Lex/Rob thing could be the misdirection used to cover up the Kathy boot.
All in all, at this point I would list the boot possibilities as...
Kathy = 80% chance of boot
Shi Ann = 10% chance of boot
Lex = 5% chance of boot
Alicia or someone else = 5% chance of boot.
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ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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04-05-04, 04:03 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
"I don't think Alicia is goiing anywhere for a couple of reasons....one, not enough screen time yet and no story and secondly, I don't think old Chapera is going break its full tribal alliaice so early in the game while there are still Old MM's to pagong"um shakes, remember erin? Very UTR and no story line, yet she was the first jury member and where are we now in the game... oh thats right the first jury member is about to be booted. as far as chapera booting one of its own, we have seen this happen post merge with boran and with drake. so those aren't good points for saying alicia is safe. in fact I would say she is in danger. KO is definately safe this week 
 "I've been thinking about it, but the suns gone down, I don't have much time "-Kathy O'Brien
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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04-05-04, 04:24 PM (EST)
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7. "please expound.." |
>um shakes, remember erin? Very UTR
>and no story line, yet
>she was the first jury
>member and where are we
>now in the game... oh
>thats right the first jury
>member is about to be
>booted. ...I don't see how that is relevant. First of all, you're talking about S5, the worst sesaon of Survivor ever where only about 2 people in the whole cast had ANY storyline...so I don't really think its relevant to bring up Erin's lack of pre-boot story. After all, this is allstars, all these whores have something to say.
>
>as far as chapera booting one
>of its own, we have
>seen this happen post merge
>with boran and with drake.
...I don't really remember, who did Boran and Drake get rid of first boot post-merge? I thought Andrew was the first post-merge boot in S7? Who was booted first post-merge in S3, I don't remember.
..so, basically you have one example to counter my point, one out of seven. On the other hand I have the following examples to back up my point.......Gretchen, Colby, RobM, Roger, Andrew.
>so those aren't good points for
>saying alicia is safe.
>
>in fact I would say she
>is in danger.
...additionally, Alicia has something none of those others had...an alliance with the dominant alliance. That was already clear the ep where OC agreed to stick together to the end and will be reinforced this ep with Rob making a deal with Alicia.
>
>KO is definately safe this week
>
...and so is Tom
>
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-04, 04:10 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-04 AT 04:13 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 04-05-04 AT 04:11 PM (EST) Shakes, judging by this pic I'm guessing that the merge is announced when the two tribe assemble for the IC....
If this cap does not turn out, here's the link: 
Note Rupert's necklace 
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kelli_blue 301 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-04, 04:26 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
Is that one of the Immunity necklaces? If Rupert has one, who gets the second one? Hopefully NOT Rob!
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bdemoney 745 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-05-04, 04:36 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-04 AT 05:20 PM (EST)I am still up in the air about this weeks boot. I feel that it will either be Kathy or Lex (as I don't think Rob will see SA as a challenge threat) and think he will keep Alicia around for a little while longer. Now if it will be Kathy or Lex this week I am just not sure. It seems that both of them have gotten increased screen time (unlike SA or Alicia) and their story arcs are coming to a finish. I just keep having this feeling that Lex will be given the boot this week if he doesn't win immunity. I am tending to lean towards a Lex boot since, I am sure Rob would see Lex as a much bigger challenge threat. Also with the possiblity of a Tom and Lex alliance he might be worried that if he lets Lex stay the others may finally try and get rid of either he or Amber. For instance Lex would still control SA's vote and with the two of them Tom, and then perhaps Rupert and Jenna (via Tom?) they could easily vote off Rob or Amber. With Kathy being left I don't think that would be possible, as she would not have an alliance "in" that Lex would. I don't think she could get Tom, Rupert, Jenna or Alicia to side with her or SA, so therefore she and SA will be picked off right after Lex, unless they win immunity. Actually having typed this I now feel that it will be Lex to go this week instead of Kathy (unless of course he wins immunity) in which case, Shakes, I think you are 100% correct and Kathy will be gone.
What do you guys think of this reasoning?
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MattyMax 515 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-06-04, 03:43 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
Woah, I don't know about that other d*ck but I was also thinking about the LEX boot while reading your post, bdemoney. It kinda makes sense. Watch the whole 'broken alliance' story line happens when Rob tells Lex that he's the next to go! IRONY IRONY it would be AWESOME. Lex has been shown driving his tribe into the ground, and we all know that it's gonna hurt him once the merge hits, of course. He voted out all the other MEN in his tribe!!! Unless you've got Alicia standing next to you, you're SCREWED if you don't have a majority at 10 and you don't have a strong guy scapegoat/scarecrow. Rob made the deal with LEX because Rob knows that Lex is in trouble. and that's not good news, especially since Shakes, do you really think that Rob is gonna break his word with Kathy and keep his word with Lex? why? the point of the game is to take out your competition, and Lex is competition and has no loyalty to Rob. If Rob wants to make it to the end, he's gonna need to inspire loyalty from his people, be a good king and kill all the infidels and all that. Mini-bash!
Lex was fooled by his own season, where his loser moron tribe lost tons of challenges, made awful survivor mistakes (dumping the water!) and voting mistakes (Snake in the GRASS!) and still made it to final 3 playing with an open hand. Where was this reward challenge spoiler that shii and lex go out together. dude it's totally lex. at least if the survivors act intelligently and rationally. MM
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pinchy 200 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-05-04, 04:59 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-04 AT 05:27 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 04-05-04 AT 05:06 PM (EST) I agree that Kathy is the most vulnerable this week.
1) Lex either gets immunity or Rob keeps his promise for ONE TC.
2) If Rupert and Jenna (Saboga pagonging will be out, plus Jenna is "in" with Rob and Amber) get immunity, for sure Kathy will be next.
3) Shi Ann is not considered a threat and will be easy pickings later (theoretically they start the pagonging with the strongest old Mogo-Kathy or Lex)
4) the teddy bear thing. We don't know that she hasn't gotten her bear yet, she could get it at the merge from one of those big boxes. we only know that she and it made the merge, not necessarily the jury. (a spoiler for last season, Andrew's clothes on auction at brother's website was considered a reason for determining the first boot after merge, jury members at one time wore their original clothes for the finale kept safe for them by CBS, they may not bother with this anymore) eta: pointed out to me that I was including the F2 in the jury (oops!) so no teddy bear jury thing unless they cut the jury to 5. and it's not clear that there will be a jury of 9, or that if there's a merge, then everyone is on the jury (SPearl Islands, Andrew first boot after merge, but not on jury, let's face it their tribe was about to starve!)
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-04, 10:56 PM (EST)
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20. "Misdirection in Bball commercial?" |
Another commercial... VO"Will Rob's and Lex's SECRET pact hold up?" Lex: "It's about a knife in the back" Rob: Pointing at Lex "If you want to put our friendship on the line, I will" In the middle of Rob's statement quick shot to Kathy.... Query: Is this pact "secret" and is Lex talking about a knife in his back or Kathy's?
 emydi
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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-06-04, 03:35 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
...and Rob's certainly never been known to make hideous moves, now has he? I think we also make a mistake if we think Rob has any kind of loyalty or honor could be a Kathy boot, but if so, I'd say it's more likely because Lex wins immunity than a sense of honor on Rawb's part. or because he is given the second immunity, but by whom? maybe Rawb, but again, I doubt he's smart enough - or maybe he is smart enough to at least realize this may make Chapera suspicious. and again, the no honor thing. maybe SA, but I think she'd give it to Kathy over Lex - unless she figures Lex has a better chance at winning future immunities, and so could keep her in the game even if she can't win another immunity. And since it sounds like this will be a very physically demanding challenge, I think we can rule out SA winning even this one. Tom would be most likely IMO, but Tom is a smart player and probably wouldn't want to rock the Chapera boat yet. this all assumes the 2nd immunity is given rather than won, or course
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-04, 05:08 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-04 AT 05:59 PM (EST)I can see this too after looking at the preview vidcaps, despite my spec about the family visit spoilers. It could be that there is some off information in one of those spoilers. I tend to think the tribes will merge before IC though, since See BS misdirection gives us these two separate items: The tribes finally merge, prompting a new and explosive dynamic among the tribe members. then later Total chaos erupts when the castaways prepare for Tribal Council. I expect the Rob/Lex/Kathy confrontation to come after the merge but before the IC. Lex would feel comfortable enough to talk to Rob at that point about their deal, since he saved Amber as Rob requested. The Rob whams him, telling him "you didn't really believe that, did ya?" The focus would then be on Rob wanting to get Lex out. I don't think Rob would feel any need to protect Lex for three more days -- why bother? But Lex will realize he needs to win the IC. From the vidcaps I think he and Rupert are the IC double-winners. Chaos would then erupt as Rob's target shifts to the well-liked Kathy, and, as you say, perhaps Rob also becomes a boot candidate as Lex and Kathy try to turn the tables on him. But in the end, Kathy goes. Not committing to it yet, but it looks very plausible. I must repeat what others are asking, Shakes -- whence the Lex/Shii Ann reward spoiler? Never heard/saw anything about that.
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Dapper 29 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-05-04, 09:20 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
I think we should ban Shakes for fabricating information...LOL
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-04, 06:14 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
The problem I have with this is that Rob et al. would seem to have some sort of deal with Reward Captive Kathy Spiller of Beans; I'd say ShiiAnn is probably in the greatest danger. So, basically, what are the odds of ShiiAnn winning the coveted Immunity Necklace? That's the only scenario I see where Rob would have to turn the guns on Kathy, Lex, or one of his own.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-06-04, 10:59 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-06-04 AT 11:00 AM (EST)I'd say ShiiAnn is probably in the greatest danger. I don't think so, Dabo. Chapera was only courting Kathy on the yacht in case they might need someone to flip after the merge. But no concrete deal was struck, and now they don't need her. Rob's quickie deal with Lex was just to get him to save Amber, and he is going to align with Alicia out of fear that Amber got booted, probably to keep Alicia from flipping to the other side. But once it's clear Amber is safe, I think Rob will want to cut off anyone who feels that Rob owes them something, before they can cause trouble. Therefore Lex and Kathy are in the biggest danger, and I think Alicia may be in more danger than Shii Ann. Shii Ann is the only person who doesn't have a connection, real or perceived, with Rob, so I don't think he'd be worried about her right now. (Though Shii Ann may have designs on aligning with Rupert, after their reward lunch conversation, Rob is not privy to that at the moment.) From how Shii Ann played in Thailand, Rob probably doesn't think she's a strategy-minded threat, whereas Lex and Kathy are.
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LookeeLoo 1169 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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04-05-04, 07:32 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
I can see Kathy getting the boot only if Lex looses immunity. If he does not, then I believe Rob wouldnt hesitate in getting rid of Lex.I can also see that Lex's gut may start working and he may realize he cant trust Rob. He'll then work on Tom to figure out how to get enough votes to get Rob off. I can see Rob, Rupert and Lex in the running for II. It may be that the loser of that trio is the one actually voted out to get rid of some strength. It's really hard for me to pick a Kathy boot over a strong guy boot here... I can also see that Jiffy may say that they go straight to TC immediately after the IC, and that would cause all of them to scramble. 
A Slicey original
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Get Bent 293 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-06-04, 03:04 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
Shakes,To answer one of your questions, I believe the merge happens just before the IC. Check out this vid cap, and notice two tribal colored mats, and more importantly, what looks like discarded buffs on the ground in front of the mats. 
So the Rob screwing over Lex and Kathy discussion must take place in the scramble before TC.
I am also leaning toward a Kathy boot. It looks like two water challenges. With the IC being what we think is a hold your breath type of challenge, Lex should at least place second. So he has immunity. And Rob already screwed up his alliance/promise/relationship with Lex and Kathy as we saw with the fight. Why would he not continue with that, since the damage was already done? If he didn't vote one of them off after that, they wouldn't trust him anyway, and would therefore both be a threat, instead of only one of them.
KO Fan (I believe) talked about the citris issue. Well, we know the Chapera camp also had limes or lemons. So more than one camp may have and we just didn't see them. And Saboga boasted Bananas, no citris in the episodes. So I don't think that is any certain proof she stays longer. 
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HuskiesFan 54 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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04-06-04, 08:37 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
Also, that convo with Rob/LEx/kathy could lead to a Kex scramble where they try to convice members of OC to get rid of Rob...then MB could use Rob as the misdirection boot.
I had thought exactly the same thing. Rob tells Lex and Kathy that Kathy is going tonight at TC.
Now the scramble begins...I would guess that they would have no problem getting ShiAnn and Rupert on board to vote out one of the Rombers. Assuming that Rob wins one of the INs, the vote may turn towards Amber, just to split the 2 up. A second chance to do what they should have done in the first place. So who do they try to sway, Tom or Alicia, toward a Romber vote? After that whole "Friendship speech" by Rob at the Convo, if it is all about voting Kathy out, then I think that Lex would have no problem giving it back to Rob....Friend, or no friend.
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ManateeBob 38 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-06-04, 10:40 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: Robfadda-Ambuh, brains or no? (kinda long)" |
Well its obvious to all of us that at some point the rest of the players have to try and break the Romber unit in half. We may not have been privy to all the various private conversations but it has to be obvious to all of the Chappys at least that Rob will throw any of them overboard to keep Amber. I havent been fanatically watching basketball so I dont know the full context of the comments but perhaps the Chappys become suspicious over the "take care of her and Ill take care of you later" message Rob passed to Lex, forcing Rob to tell the other Chappys "you guys didnt really believe that did ya?"It only makes sense for Rob to make "formal" alliance with Alicia while uncertain about Amber because at that point he could be facing a "united" Lex-Kathy-Shi-Jerry front while he has only "full" alliances with 3 members of Chappy, making Alicia a possible swing vote against him. Then after consumating an aliance with Alicia he clearly must get rid of one of the Mogos at TC to firm up the faith of his fellow Chappys that the Pagong is on as planned. The most obvious candidate would be Lex, since that is who he made his surreptitious pledge to. However, there is a *very great* danger in leaving Kathy in the game after Amber told her a final 5 would be R-A-T-L-K which would allow Kathy to spill the beans to Rupert, Jenna, and Alicia that they simply are not in the Robfaddas real long term plans. *Assuming* Amber did not make this same promise to Lex, and that she and Rob actually do have a brain between them they absolutely must get rid of Kathy if she is not immune. However thats is an assumption, and we all know about those. OTOH, perhaps it is a straight up Alicia boot, she clearly has to be the agreed upon target amongst the core Chappy alliance, and honoring the Amber promised F5 to Kathy solves Rombers problem of what to do about the fact the "other" core Chappys will have them outnumbered 4 to 2 if it finally dawns on them that Romber is an inseperable unit which will sacrifice any of them as needed. This also has risks because it will expose the inevitable disloyalty to their fellow Chappys by Romber. Unless of course all the other Chappys agree to it as well. (Obvious tie-in with "promise means nothing" after shot of Rob-Alicia alliance) But what if Romber is really a fairly ingenious playing unit. Ambers promised F5 could work. This week they get rid of Shi-Ann (notice Kathy had no real objection to a F5 without her, knife in back, its brutal commentary from other Mogos) now so long as the Amber F5 stick together they can easily dispose of Alicia, Rupert, and Jenna. If Lex really believs he can count on swaying Big Tom, you have a Lex-Kathy solid alliance against Romber, with Big Tom as the crucial swing vote, and both pairs convinced he will ultimately side with them. (Rawb swears "omerta" with Lex to convince him of need to dump Shi-Ann "if you want to put our friendship on the line Ill do that", ties into Robfadda theme and all the Mariano works on favors, we can trade on this favor, from Lex and Kathy last time, Ambuhs *I dont know* if I can keep my promises)
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anninvt2002 86 desperate attention whore postings
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04-06-04, 10:49 AM (EST)
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27. "Kathy's Viewer Evenings" |
This may or may not be significant but KO mentioned Kathy has "thurs watch" parties. How are these run? Is Kathy in attendance? Has she made plans NOT to be there this THurs? Just a few questions and maybe the answers can spoil if she is safe.
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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04-06-04, 11:16 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: Kathy's Viewer Evenings" |
To answer your questions Ann.1. Kathy is in attendence during the viewings. She arrives 2 hours before the show and signs autographs, then she speaks for 45 minutes about different things (life on the island, challenges, etc), then they run 2 challenges 1 for kids and 1 for adults, then she answers questions for the last 15 minutes up to the show. About 250 people attend. She also says stuff during commercials, then wraps up with a little bit at the end, signs more autographs and is done by 9:30pm. 2. She has only missed one thursday so far, that was the recap episode. 3. Because I was away on business I was not at the one on April 1st, (She did have one) so I don't know what she said to everybody about the upcoming episode. During her question and answer period she is very careful not to reveal details of upcoming episodes, however, someone like myself who spoils and reads alot I have been able to pick up on a few things that have been helpful. One thing she said is that she lost 31 pounds this time around, and that she had to go to the dentist because of sucking on the limes- it deteriorated the enamel on her teeth. They don't have limes at Mogo Mogo or Chapera. Saboga has the fruit, so if it is the merge island, can you ruin your teeth in 1 or 2 days of sucking on limes? I don't think so. Has she lost 31 pounds yet? She didn't have as much meat on her bones this time around. She is still very thin and looks great. If she did get booted early jury, she would have had better food and the weight loss wouldn't have been as drastic as if she lasted longer in the game, IMO. Personally I can see the points all of you are making, but I think Kathy is safe this week. 
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ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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04-06-04, 12:00 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Kathy's Viewer Evenings" |
There's nothing to say she couldn't have been sucking on limes after her boot -- you know they go awfully well with Margaritas I'm beginning to think that the ONLY way it comes down to either a Kathy or Lex boot is if Shii Ann wins immunity -- in my earlier post I posited that it really didn't make game playing sense for Rob to stab Lex in the back immediately after Lex played a key roll in saving Amber. Of course, Rob can be a big tool, and we all know his "promise" to the Mogos is not going to override his alliance to the Chappys. We know he will back down on the promise to Lex, and I think it's either this episode or the next one. The question is, when and why does he break those promises?At first thought, it seems logical that Kathy might be the one to go, especially if Lex gets immunity. Yet, why wouldn't he target Shii in that situation instead? He has some bond with Kathy due to their prior season together, and the yacht challenge. But, what if Shii Ann gets immunity -- then Rob would seem to be limited to either a Lex or Kathy boot -- unless Kathy is the second immunity holder. Then, he's down to a choice between Lex or Alicia, and we KNOW he's going to make a "pact" with Alicia this episode -- it would seriously be cutting off his nose to spite his face to take out Alicia, one of the original Chappys, only days or hours after making a pact with her . . . leaving his only option to be Lex. This is a tough one, but I think I'm leaning back toward a Lex boot, with Shii and Kathy as the ones immune. It's the only thing that would seem to put all the pieces of the puzzle together.
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-07-04, 03:58 PM (EST)
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58. "RE: Questions for KObrienfan" |
Answers for BR:1. No, she has not ever mentioned MB allowing/not allowing the parties. 2. I checked the flight times of commercial jets and there is not a real convenient late evening flight or early morning flight that would get her to NYC on time if she stayed for the whole evening viewing session. So unless she flies via CBS private jet, I don't see how it would be possible. 3. I know that tomorrow nights viewing has not been cancelled (although it could be run by her colleagues with her not there, but that wouldn't be as much fun). I do know that for the recap week she didn't have a viewing and made the announcement about not having it at the end of the show the week before, she just said "I will be traveling next week so I will see you all again on April 1st" She didn't tell us it would be the recap. My guess is she did that so that folks wouldn't get suspicious if she ever had to not be there again due to "traveling".
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-07-04, 11:48 AM (EST)
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52. "RE: Robfadda-Ambuh, brains or no? (kinda long)" |
FlowerPOWER has a new thread about possible Shii boot this week:http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/5052.shtml My problem with the conversation between Lex Rob and Kathy being about a Shii boot is that Kathy is way too emotional for it to be about Shii and not her. IMO, she wouldnt say "It's brutal" about Shii. She easily agreed to the Final 5 scenario with Ambuh last week w/o even saying "What about Shii" even in a confessional.
emydi
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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04-07-04, 01:51 PM (EST)
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53. "exactly" |
>
>My problem with the conversation between
>Lex Rob and Kathy being
>about a Shii boot is
>that Kathy is way too
>emotional for it to be
>about Shii and not her.
> IMO, she wouldnt say
>"It's brutal" about Shii.
>
>She easily agreed to the Final
>5 scenario with Ambuh last
>week w/o even saying "What
>about Shii" even in a
>confessional.
.....the theory that this convo is about Shi is one of the dumbest theories I've ever heard on the spoiler board. I would bet my life and the life of everyone on this board that Shi Ann isn't even so much as mentioned in that convo. Have you people even been watching the show????? Kathy hasn't even included Shi in her plans back when they were still in MogoMogo...it was always about her and Lex, NEVER about her, Lex and Shi.
To suggest that Kathy would start crying over Shi is absolutely laughable and ludicrous. Also, just look at it logically...even if Kathy and Lex thought they had a deal with Rob do you really think that Kathy and Lex would be dumb enough to assume that Shi was part of that deal as well? Cmon people, I know you're not that stupid!
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ManateeBob 38 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-08-04, 03:22 PM (EST)
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61. "RE: exactly" |
time will tell but i would not be so quick with the hyperbole my overwrought friend
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Tinman 166 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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04-06-04, 01:51 PM (EST)
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44. "RE: re: agree" |
But, Shakes, we're still looking for that spoiler about Shii and Lex sharing reward.....
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-06-04, 05:20 PM (EST)
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46. "More reasons to agree....." |
>>Like others, I think the only possible boot candidates this
>>week are Shi/Lex/Kathy. I don't think Alicia is goiing
>>anywhere for a couple of reasons....one, not enough screen
>>time yet and no story and secondly, I don't think old Chapera
>>is going break its full tribal alliaice so early in the game
>>while there are still Old MM's to pagong. Alicia will probably
>>be the first OC to get the boot, but that won't be for at
>>least two eps in my opinion.To me, the key to why Kathy is a very likely boot this week lies in this paragraph of Shakes. I firmly believe that the 3 old MogoMogo's are clearly the group at risk this week, even with Rob's promise that we can all feel likely will not come true. It is my personal opinion, that Lex would be the biggest target of the three, however, due to the fact that Robfatha seems to like ridding himself of the other alpha males in the group. I believe that he would have ridden himself of Rupert by now, had the chance arisen. So, that being said, I think Lex is the primary target, followed by Kathy, followed by Shi-Ann based solely on their level of danger to Rob in the game. So, on to the challenge. If the challenge holds true and is a very grueling and difficult challenge as CBS is making it out to be, which of the three old Mogo's has the most likely shot of placing in the top 2 at immunity? Clearly the answer to that question is Lex. He has shown himself to be very good with water challenges, he is an excellent swimmer and a good fisherman. One would suspect that he has a very legit shot at placing top 2 in this challenge, and certainly he has to be one of the top 3 favorites (along with Rob and Rupert). So, that being said, I would also leand towards a Kathy boot this week, since I have no other good spoiler information at the moment to base my pick on. I think it is highly likely that Lex and Rupert will win immunity and Rob will take out the old Mogo's next biggest threat in the game..Kathy. Let me add, however, that I also feel that there is a strong chance that Rupert will get the boot this week. Again going back to Rob not wanting to keep the other alpha males around, I think that whenever he gets the chance, Robfatha is going to do his best to get Rupert out. So, if immunity goes to Lex and Rob and not Lex and Rupert, my second pick for the boot as of right now would be Rupert.
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-07-04, 09:24 AM (EST)
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49. "RE: More reasons to agree....." |
Marko,Even though I agree with Shakes and am currently leaning toward a Kathy boot this week, I think you make a very good point here. There is definitely no clear cut boot this week, as there has been in past weeks. Far from it. In my jumbled post I mentioned four different people that I felt could be targets this week in Lex, Kathy, Shi and even Rupert (though I am probably the only one who sees him as a target). So I definiteyl agree with you here. It just seems to me that there is a solid chance that Lex and Rupert will both win immunity, given the nature of the challenge, and I think that Shi is defininitely less of a target than Kathy would be, simply because Kathy is a better player and more dangerous in the long run. Given that, I lean towards Kathy, but clearly in order for me to lean that way, many things have to fall into place. I am certainly not going to be voting this week until after I see where the rest of the spoiling world goes, put it that way.
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NTK 109 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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04-07-04, 10:06 AM (EST)
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51. "RE: Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
I'm leaning towards Kathy because she seemed to "jump" into saving Amber, even though Rob communicated with Lex to take care of Amber. She had no assurance of any kind from Rob.In Kathy's favor, Lex did seem to have a hard time voting off Jerri. Amber may realize how much Kathy contributed to her remaining in the game. If she conveyed this to Rob, it might help Kathy. If Lex wins immunity, it probably won't help enough. I think Rob wouldn't mind ditching Alicia. But, if he just made a deal with her, the timing would be wrong. Even though Alicia is strong, one of the other males could win a challenge and there would be another chance to ditch Alicia. The spoiling vibes seem to be that Rupert stays a bit longer.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-08-04, 11:16 AM (EST)
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59. "Saucers?E: Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-08-04 AT 11:19 AM (EST)
Just Posted by Orangeena over at Sucks:
Oops! I meant the ORIGINAL Mogos a go-go-ing. Or continuing the PAGONG show. It's one of the two GO GO GIRLS. But which witch is witch? Kathy gets to sleep with her Teddy bear and put rice in it. But that could happen THIS episode, couldn't it? The Teddy and the rice could be in those big reward crates.... And Shii has no allies at Chapera....This may be the most important point of all. The Saucers are being, well, very saucy this week. Maybe they'll check in again. emydi
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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04-08-04, 03:49 PM (EST)
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63. "RE: Saucers?E: Why I'm leaning towards a Kathy boot this week" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-08-04 AT 03:51 PM (EST)I believe Lex was "outed" by marko who relayed that DarkRivers announced it was Lex. Tsk Tsk Rob  shakes and flower for SA's thread make absolutely essential points. This apparently was quite of a toss up for the big guns to decide whose promise they have no problem in breaking And SA gets to be pawn again............ 
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