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Chez 777 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 04-03-04, 10:47 AM (EST) "Was the buff pull rigged?" I did not see a discussion of this anywhere else, so thought to start a thread. At first when the tribes pulled their buffs in such perfect order to end up on the opposite side, I thought it was just chance, even though I knew the odds were low. After all, we saw them pull the buffs, right? So it couldn't be rigged, right? Wrong. A friend of mine at work reminded me that magicians have all sorts of props that can let them do stunts like this, and it would not necessarily take a skilled magician to carry it off. MB could easily have set up the urn to give each person exactly the buff color he wanted them to have. Wouldn't it be more interesting to the show, for a tightly bound alliance (Rob and Amber) to be separated? Wouldn't it bring new vitality into the underdog team to move into a better home? Wouldn't an interesting dilemma come into play when the underdog (losing) team has to make this choice (does avoiding the wrath of the RobFather prolong their life on the tribe better than just saving their dwindling numbers?) After the players chose their numbers, 1 through 6 (Chapera) or 1 through 4 (Mogo Mogo), the producers had plenty of time to set up the urn before the buffs were pulled. But the convincing piece of evidence comes when I figure out the odds of this buff-pull happening by chance. Here's how it works: If this were to happen entirely by chance, person #1 (former red) has 10 buffs to choose from, of which 5 are green. Odds of him pulling green are 5/10, or 1/2. Now, assuming this happened, person #2, former green, has 9 buffs to choose from, with 5 being red. So odds of this happening by chance are 5/9. To get the combined probability of the 2 events you have to multiply the individual probabilities together. Therefore, for person #1 and #2 do choose first green, then red, the odds are 5/10 x 5/9 = 5/18 , about 28%. Not unreasonable at all for this to happen entirely by chance. The problem is that for each successive person to pull the "right" color, the odds start diminishing fast. Each time the percent is multiplied by a number of either 1/2 or slightly higher. Here's how the whole thing works, from person 1 to 9. (#10 is irrelevant, since there is only 1 buff left). 5/10 x 5/9 x 4/8 x 4/7 x 3/6 x 3/5 x 2/4 x 2/3 x 1/2 = 0.4%, or less than 1 chance in 200 Now it's not impossible this could happen by chance, but do we really think it did? I'd be interested in some debate on this, and also whether Jeff P has been asked this question.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Was the buff pull rigged? emydi 04-03-04 1    RE: Was the buff pull rigged? Chez 04-03-04 2  RE: Was the buff pull rigged? TeamJoisey 04-03-04 3    RE: Was the buff pull rigged? redefine_perfection13 04-03-04 4        RE: Was the buff pull rigged? dav8515 04-03-04 5  RE: Was the buff pull rigged? Molaholic 04-03-04 6    RE: Was the buff pull rigged? toddE 04-03-04 7    RE: Was the buff pull rigged? Order... Ra_8secs 04-05-04 20  RE: Was the buff pull rigged? dabo 04-03-04 8  RE: Was the buff pull rigged? sondral 04-03-04 9  RE: Was the buff pull rigged? Crash Thompson Jr 04-03-04 10    RE: Was the buff pull rigged? cdlafl 04-05-04 15  RE: Was the buff pull rigged? Loree 04-04-04 11    RE: Was the buff pull rigged? ohboy 04-05-04 12  RE: Was the buff pull rigged? Estee 04-05-04 13  RE: Was the buff pull rigged? KObrien_fan 04-05-04 14  Any order... udg 04-05-04 16  RE: Was the buff pull rigged? Brownroach 04-05-04 17  RE: Was the buff pull rigged? raidersfantom 04-05-04 18    RE: Was the buff pull rigged? managerr 04-05-04 19  RE: Was the buff pull rigged? BrykMantra 04-07-04 21  RE: Was the buff pull rigged? FSUGUY 04-07-04 22  RE: Was the buff pull rigged? BrassFan 04-07-04 23    RE: Was the buff pull rigged? katethegreat 04-07-04 24  RE: Was the buff pull rigged? implode 04-08-04 25

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-03-04, 10:59 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" from Jerri's Webchat: http://www.survivorfever.net/chat_s8_jerri.html Question: When you selected buffs from the vase, were you allowed to take any one you wanted? Or did they instruct you to take the top one only? Jerri: We were allowed to grab whatever buff we wanted to. It was a complete coincidence that it happened the way it did. In order to prevent a simple pagonging, I think MB would wanted anything else to happen but what happened. No rigging EMYDI   Top

Chez 777 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 04-03-04, 11:02 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" I dunno. When magicians do these tricks, they allow the audience member to pull "whatever item they want", but the "urn" is set up so that just the desired item is accessible to grab. The contestants would not know they were being duped.   Top

TeamJoisey 3558 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 04-03-04, 11:23 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" LAST EDITED ON 04-03-04 AT 11:23 AM (EST) From the producers point of view, the eventual outcome was the least desirable of all possible consequences. If it were rigged, the tribes would have been shuffled. Anything less is a complete fizzle. He was looking for drama and got... bleh. Not rigged. Unless you suspect Mark Burnett is trying to produce the most boring Survivor ever. If that's the case, he's doing a great job.   Top

redefine_perfection13 114 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-03-04, 11:59 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" Unless you suspect Mark Burnett is trying to produce the most boring Survivor ever. given the entertainment level of this season that could be a definite possibility   Top

dav8515 21 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 04-03-04, 02:23 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" Y would he do that, that makes no sence, not everything is a conspiricy   Top

Molaholic 9015 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-03-04, 02:43 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" My suspicions were raised just the same. This was just way too much of a coincidence. I think the outcome was rigged. Not just nearly everyone going to the opposite color, but the dramatic turn that Amber gets separted from her Beantown Squeeze. Funny, too, that she was the last to draw! FLUFFLYPILLOWS (RED POINTS)TRIBE LEADER sigpic a GeorgiaBelle creation MMIV   Top

toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 04-03-04, 03:03 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" Something to think about, for sure. Both pro and con have valid points. The odds of this happening randomly are so low, and for the one Chapera switched to be Amber? Because if it had been Mariano, he would have been toast. So I can see a possibility of rigging. Maybe MB really wanted to play up the romance, disregarding all else. OTOH, why would the producers want to make such a boring show? And would it really be that easy to rig? Hmmmm.   Top

Ra_8secs 1081 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 04-05-04, 11:19 PM (EST) 20. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged? Order of drawing" But the order of the drawing was arbitrary. Jeffy asked them to line up (I think he even said "in any order"), but they maintained the heirarchy and pairings that they used to get acquainted. How could MB have known they'd keep that order? -- Ra, Spinning in geo/helio eccentric orbit   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-03-04, 07:58 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" LAST EDITED ON 04-03-04 AT 07:59 PM (EST) In Survivor you don't get to see everything that happens. For example, in S1, the first Individual Immunity, the three who eventually raced (swam) for immunity were determined by a holding-your-breath contest. The way it played on TV it would have seemed there was only one round in the breath-holding contest with the three being those who won-placed-showed. Not so. After the first round the winner sat out, another round was held. After the second round the two winners sat out, another round was held. After three rounds of holding-their-breaths the results were the same as if they had simply been decided by who won-placed-showed in the first round, so to save time that's the way the episode was edited. (Sue me, CBS, go ahead, Burnett revealed these things in his first Survivor book, go ahead get on my case I dubble dare ya!) If the idea in the buff-drawing in ASS was to split up everyone who had had lunch together, then there were never more than two buffs in the urn at a time, one green and one red; and indeed the castaways drew in lunch-buddy groupings. The outcome of all of Mogo ending up Chapera and all of Chapera except one ending up Mogo is then much more likely than if all ten buffs were in the urn from the outset. It was still weird, but not so magician-necessary weird as it appeared. (Better yet, sue Burnett, don't let him go to the ASS live finale! Jerks.)   Top

sondral 17 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 04-03-04, 08:41 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" Although it seems almost impossible and highly coincidental that it ended up the way it did, I would think that if the buff pull was rigged they would have mixed it up a little less obvious. Therefor, I honestly think that, however bizarre it turned out, it was legit.   Top

Crash Thompson Jr 63 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 04-03-04, 09:21 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" Even though Jeff kept saying crap like "Maybe it was meant to be!" I still think it was indeed by chance. Jeff even told them, you can stand where you want, no particular order. Though MB could have hoped for a certain order and took it from there.   Top

cdlafl 26 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 04-05-04, 12:34 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" i would disagree...i thought i heard jeff tell them to line up in lunch pairs...   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-04-04, 09:14 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" I believe the buffs were put in the pot in alternating order hoping to keep them all from being bunched together by tribe. They probably assumed the players would mix them up when they grabbed them. But they all just grabbed the buff on top. Jenna was the only one that looked like she mixed up the final 2 buffs. So it could have happened this way. I doubt MB wanted this result.   Top

ohboy 168 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-05-04, 11:54 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" Did you see how Narrow that holder was? They were stacked on top of each other there was no room to go digging around they all took the top one. And they were one red, one green etc. They knew what they were doing. WAS RIGGED   Top

Estee 57126 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-05-04, 12:13 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" Coincidence. Or, to pull out the old line, one in a million chances crop up nine times out of ten -- so a 1:200 coming through as boringly as possible doesn't even force a blink. Just remember, the next one's happenstance. After that, we get to conspiracy.   Top

KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-05-04, 12:32 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" This was the buff pull order: Lex- red Rob- green Tom- green Jerri- red Shii Ann- red Rupert- green Kathy- red Alicia- green Jenna- green Amber- red The groups that came back from their lunch chat came back in ALMOST the same order as what they were when they were picked. Lex picked Rob, then Tom picked Jerri, then Shii picked Rupert, next Alicia picked Kathy (but these two were swapped in the lineup), and finally Jenna and Amber were paired since they remained. So when picking from the buff pot, Kathy should have picked after Alicia not before. In other words if it was rigged then Kathy was supposed to end up on Mogo and Alicia on Chapera. The only way MB could have predetermined the exact buff pull, he would have had to have had Jeff announce that they should stand in the exact order in which they were chosen. Otherwise it is just up to fate and luck. Did you notice that the buffs were folded? They may have been stacked but it isn't hard to reach your hand down a couple and pull up one besides the one that was on top. In my opinion this wasn't rigged, it was just odd.   Top

udg 3381 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-05-04, 12:57 PM (EST) 16. "Any order..." If you didn't tape the episode, you can watch the buff swap online via the Survivor Insider. About 4 minutes and 15 seconds in, as they're coming back from their lunch dates, Jeff says, "Fall in, right in here. Any order." --- UDG   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-05-04, 05:40 PM (EST) 17. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" I don't think it was rigged for the simple reason that if MB wanted this to happen, he would have just had Jeff tell everyone they were being switched to the opposite tribe and hand them new buffs; except Jenna and Amber as numbers 5 and 6 would have to select new buffs in order to even out the tribes. I think the twist would have been much better if it were planned that way. Instead it was just the same old tribal reshuffle -- how shocking (yawn).   Top

raidersfantom 137 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-05-04, 05:45 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" No, they lined up in random order. So, uh, no.   Top

managerr 1959 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 04-05-04, 06:52 PM (EST) 19. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" Agreed. There was at least a 50% chance of Rob and Amber being separated. There were tons of potential storylines that they could have used depending on how the buffers were drawn.   Top

BrykMantra 49 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 04-07-04, 09:23 AM (EST) 21. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" It doesn't matter if they lined up in random order -- as long as the production people had whatever time they needed *after that* to rig the urn, and then that gap was edited out; the buff pull looked instant. The tribe members are probably used to countless production delays, so when told to line up and then having to wait for God-knows-what, they had no cause to be suspicious. Maybe more film was loaded into a camera, for all they knew. That said, though, I'm probably more in the not rigged camp. Somebody said the urn was too narrow to "dig around in", but ... what digging??? It's cloth, for pete's sake, not stacked bricks. You lift up a buff with one finger, and use your other fingers to grab the one below, or the one below that. I think if you reached in and could only grab one buff, a control freak like Jerri would not be saying that it wasn't rigged. And like others have said, if MB was going to rig it, he'd try to bust up not just Rawmber, but also Lex and his minions -- shake things up a little. (P.S. Sorry, folks, that I've been mostly lurking for the past three seasons ... this is the first time in a while that I've thought of something that hasn't already been said!) --------------------------------------- http://brykmantra.blogspot.com   Top

FSUGUY 447 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 04-07-04, 11:23 AM (EST) 22. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" what's next? accusing MB of setting up renters for apartments or for an expensive penthouse..... oooopppps...wrong board.....   Top

BrassFan 326 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 04-07-04, 12:04 PM (EST) 23. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" While I don't think it was rigged...as a fan and (horrible) practitioner of magic tricks....it wouldn't be hard to do...and wouldn't require any type of delay. All that it would take is an urn with a mechanical device inside. It's simply a hinged door, attached to the middle of the bottom of the urn. It can cover either the left half of the bottom or the right half of the bottom....and with a simple button press of a hidden button under Jeff's hand, it flips to the other side. Put green buffs on one side, red on the other, and let Jeff know which ones are up when he picks up the urn. (Let's assume that the red buffs are on top) If he wants the next person to choose to get a red buff, he lets them reach in and grab a buff. Every buff that is available to them is red, so they'll have to pick a red one. If he wants them to get a green buff, he hits the button, and the door swings to the other side. This covers all the red buffs, and leaves only green buffs available to pick.   Top

katethegreat 207 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-07-04, 09:11 PM (EST) 24. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" Thanks - I was thinking there would be a simple way to do this, IF MB wanted to. I just question whether or not he would want to . . . Sure, splitting up Rob and Amber was fun, but lots of scenarios would have been just as fun, and I would think that MB is against a simple pagonging, which is boring for weeks on end! Anyway, I appreciate the knowledge of a pro!   Top

implode 10 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 04-08-04, 06:44 PM (EST) 25. "RE: Was the buff pull rigged?" Its very possible it was fixed...they make jars/vases with a button on the bottom that switches the side you can acess (for magicians). IF it was one of those, it would be no problem at all to rig the order--push the button at the apropriate time, and the side with the apropriate color buffs opens.   Top

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