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"What I've learned watching basketball on CBS all weekend"
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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03-27-04, 05:31 PM (EST)
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"What I've learned watching basketball on CBS all weekend"
Here's what I've gathered from seeing about 1000 Survivor promos so far this weekend.

Rob and Jenna definitely end up on Mogo Mogo. During today's game there is a promo shot of Rob and Jenna arriving at the trivia challenge. Rob is holding the MM flag.

Tom and Rupert end up on Chapera. Another promo shot taken of Rupe and Tom appears to also be from the arrival at the trivia challenge. The lighting and foilage are identical. The difference is that Tom and Rupe are standing with their bodies turned in an opposite direction of Jenna and Rob, as if the MM tribe arrives on our left and the Chapera tribe arrives on our left.

Also, Kathy and Amber end up on Chapera. Shot of Amber and Kathy on a beach with Amber reading tree mail. Since we know kathy ends up with a red buff and we are 99% sure that Amber and Rob are on differnt tribes we are left with the conclusion that Kathy and Amber are on Chapera. Also, the tree mail for Chapera is located on the beach. Plus, it looks like someone is standing behind Amber AND after she reads the tree mail the camera starts to pan to the right as if to catch the reaction of a tribemate standing off to the side. Since we think that Chapera ends up with more members this would fit since the promo shot seems to suggest a large group gathered around Kathy and Amber.


The things we don't know and what I find teh most confusing is why the contestants remove their buffs more than once at the swap??? We see Rob showing up with his buff around his neck, but when he is in the lineup and told to remove his buff it around his right arm. Also, I saw a shot of Rupert with the red buff around his neck which is different from when he is in the lineup.


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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: What I've learned watching bask... LeftPinky 03-27-04 1
 RE: What I've learned watching bask... Markopolo100 03-27-04 2
   RE: What I've learned watching bask... JazzyJax 03-28-04 3
       RE: What I've learned watching bask... Markopolo100 03-28-04 4
           RE: What I've learned watching bask... KLicK 03-28-04 5
               RE: What I've learned watching bask... Markopolo100 03-28-04 6
                   RE: What I've learned watching bask... Scarlett O Hara 03-28-04 7
           RE: What I've learned watching bask... Spidey 03-28-04 8
               kind of funny Spidey.... shakes the clown 03-28-04 9
                   RE: kind of funny Spidey.... Markopolo100 03-28-04 10
                   RE: kind of funny Spidey.... Spidey 03-28-04 11
               My weird theory. TeamJoisey 03-28-04 12
                   RE: My weird theory. Spidey 03-28-04 13
           RE: What I've learned watching bask... Brownroach 03-29-04 14
               Alternating theory ilovedarrah 03-29-04 15
                   RE: Alternating theory RyrieRae 03-30-04 16
                       RE: Alternating theory SqueezedRabbit 03-30-04 17
                       RE: Alternating theory justwrong 03-30-04 18
   RE: What I've learned watching bask... silentJ 03-31-04 19
       RE: What I've learned watching bask... SqueezedRabbit 04-01-04 20

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Messages in this topic

LeftPinky 4150 desperate attention whore postings
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03-27-04, 09:56 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: What I've learned watching basketball on CBS all weekend"
Perhaps they only swap tribes for the RC and return to their original homes for the IC? That would explain multiple switches of buff location...

created by the amazing JSlice!
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Markopolo100 218 desperate attention whore postings
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03-27-04, 10:05 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: What I've learned watching basketball on CBS all weekend"
LAST EDITED ON 03-27-04 AT 10:22 PM (EST)

>Here's what I've gathered from seeing
>about 1000 Survivor promos so
>far this weekend.
>
>Rob and Jenna definitely end up
>on Mogo Mogo. During
>today's game there is a
>promo shot of Rob and
>Jenna arriving at the trivia
>challenge. Rob is holding
>the MM flag.


Do we have a pic of this? And I agree that Rob, at some point of the episode, is a member of Mogo Mogo. But how do we explain his Red buff in the supposed challenge cap?

>
>Also, Kathy and Amber end up
>on Chapera. Shot of
>Amber and Kathy on a
>beach with Amber reading tree
>mail. Since we know
>kathy ends up with a
>red buff

Are we sure Kathy has a red buff? To me, this pic COULD look like the Chapera flag is behind her (Or something else?).

Kathy usually wears her buff straight.


ad we are
>99% sure that Amber and
>Rob are on differnt tribes
>we are left with the
>conclusion that Kathy and Amber
>are on Chapera.

I agree that there seems to be some type of switch, but why don't we see Amber in any of the challenge caps?

Jerri and (supposedely) Kathy are competing among Mogo Mogos.


--------------------------------------------
MARKOPOLO'S ANALYSIS
--------------------------------------------

Let's say Shakes is 100% correct.

NEW TRIBES

NEW MOGO MOGO
Shii Ann (numerous shots everywhere of her in Green)
Alicia (because she makes a shell necklace for Shii Ann?)
Rob (Green buff on lap while sitting at Mogo Mogo)
Jenna (according to Shakes' Saturday vidcap analysis)

NEW CHAPERA
Lex (beach shot of his red buff)
Jerri (because of challenge cap)
Amber (pic with Kathy, opposite of Rob)
Kathy (pic with Amber)
Rupert (according to Shakes' analysis)
Tom (according to Shakes' analysis)


So what are the problems with this scenario?

PROBLEM: Jerri is the next boot. How does this happen.

POSSIBLE EXPLANATION: She gets voted out in a 3-3 tie.


PROBLEM: Rob and Jenna have red buffs and are competing with Chaperans at the challenge.

POSSIBLE EXPLANATION: Tribes compete at challenges with their regular tribe.


PROBLEM: Chapera would have to sit two people out, but five Chaperans are seen competing at the challenge. Amber is nowhere to be found.

POSSIBLE EXPLANATION: Perhaps the switch makes the tribes even at 5-5. In that scenario Amber would have to be permanently a member of Mogo Mogo. But then switched to Chapera. She would then sit out the challenge for Mogo Mogo.


PROBLEM: This is way too complicated for normal TV viewers to understand. Plus, we see Rob in a red buff at the supposed challenge and a green buff at Mogo Mogo.

POSSIBLE EXPLANATION: Perhaps the challenge vidcaps aren't really at a challenge. Maybe they are the tribes reading treemail. That would solve the Amber sitting out problem. But doesn't explain the Jerri red buff in the Mogo Mogo cap.


CONCLUSION: I have absolutely no clue what is going on and we need more vidcaps and CBS teasers to explain. I think we might not know for sure until Thursday's Early Show.

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JazzyJax 531 desperate attention whore postings
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03-28-04, 00:08 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: What I've learned watching basketball on CBS all weekend"
>Let's say Shakes is 100% correct.
>
>
>NEW TRIBES
>
>NEW MOGO MOGO
>Shii Ann (numerous shots everywhere of
>her in Green)
>Alicia (because she makes a shell
>necklace for Shii Ann?)
>Rob (Green buff on lap while
>sitting at Mogo Mogo)
>Jenna (according to Shakes' Saturday vidcap
>analysis)
>
>NEW CHAPERA
>Lex (beach shot of his red
>buff)
>Jerri (because of challenge cap)
>Amber (pic with Kathy, opposite of
>Rob)
>Kathy (pic with Amber)
>Rupert (according to Shakes' analysis)
>Tom (according to Shakes' analysis)
>
>
>So what are the problems with
>this scenario?
>
>PROBLEM: Jerri is the next boot.
>How does this happen.
>
>POSSIBLE EXPLANATION: She gets voted out
>in a 3-3 tie.

IF we say Jerri is the next boot, I can definitely see Lex and Kathy "switching sides" and voting to get rid of Jerri. Those two are smart, and definitely know they are in the minority overall, expecially with constant reminders of Chapera's solidarity. What better team to be temporarily situated with than on a team with freind Amber, newcomer Rupert, and easygoing Tom, especially with the two Chapera power players over on Mogo for the time being? I think those two have to know they need to make some future alliance pals someplace, and though Amber is maybe out, Tom and Rupert could be possible candidates.

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Markopolo100 218 desperate attention whore postings
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03-28-04, 00:42 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: What I've learned watching basketball on CBS all weekend"
LAST EDITED ON 03-28-04 AT 02:20 AM (EST)

Figuring out how Jerri goes is the least of our problems.

The buff colors make no sense.

I've put together my preliminary speculation.

http://www.londyscreations.com/survivornetwork/spoilers.asp

Check it out and poke holes.


Right now I am leaning towards a DOUBLE SWITCH.

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KLicK 316 desperate attention whore postings
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03-28-04, 07:05 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: What I've learned watching basketball on CBS all weekend"
Playing Devil's advocate...

When the pieces don't fit it's usually because one of the original "truths" is wrong.

How certain are you that Jerri IS the next boot? Isn't it possible that it is that premise that is leading everyone astray?

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Markopolo100 218 desperate attention whore postings
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03-28-04, 07:18 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: What I've learned watching basketball on CBS all weekend"
The boot really has nothing to do with the twist.

It's just one thing to consider.

The real problem is figuring out how Rob and Jerri BOTH have RED buffs, yet are competing for two different tribes. Especially when we have a pic of Rob with a GREEN buff that is at Mogo Mogo camp.

I'm not even worried about the boot.

Marko

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Scarlett O Hara 3430 desperate attention whore postings
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03-28-04, 01:49 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: What I've learned watching basketball on CBS all weekend"
Excellent spoiling Marco -- I liked your theorey except for one thing . . . why would one tribe have four and one tribe have six -- that is what does not make sense to me. I wonder if one tribe receives a GUEST Tribe member for a day? This to me, is what we need to determine first.


Scarlett

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Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings
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03-28-04, 02:13 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: What I've learned watching basketball on CBS all weekend"
LAST EDITED ON 03-28-04 AT 02:15 PM (EST)

The buff colors make no sense.

Agreed. Assuming the time sequence is correct:
First: Lex- with red buff on standing next to Kathy & Jerri
Then: Rob with green buff in confessional
Then: original Chappy (minus Amber) & Mogo competing in what appears to be hyped as the IC.

Either there must be double switch (back to original tribes) or the at least some of the colors have been digitally altered.

When there are team ICs (and doesn't this look like one?), the losing team is vulnerable. As many have said, it simply couldn't work any other way. Plus, hasn't MB or Jiffy said there are no real NEW twists?

The simplest explanation for me is after a buff-draw-gone-wrong, the only change is Amber is now a mogo. And Shii and Robs IC pic buffs have been photoshopped.

Double switch/swap or not-really new tribes just seems way too weird for me.


Edited to employ the proper usage of the word "too."

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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03-28-04, 03:28 PM (EST)
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9. "kind of funny Spidey...."
>Double switch/swap or not-really new tribes
>just seems way too weird
>for me.
>


...that you chose the word "weird"...isn't that the exact reaction Lex has as well? A regular swap or somethign we've seen before wouldn't be weird, so it has to be something totally out of the ordinary.


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Markopolo100 218 desperate attention whore postings
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03-28-04, 04:18 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: kind of funny Spidey...."
>Excellent spoiling Marco -- I liked
>your theorey except for one
>thing . . . why
>would one tribe have four
>and one tribe have six
>-- that is what does
>not make sense to me.

Right now Chapera has a 6-4 advantage in tribe members

All past Survivor switches have ept the tribe numbers the same.

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Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings
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03-28-04, 04:56 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: kind of funny Spidey...."
"weird" is also what I think of when I consider a random buff draw that ends up with tribes almost identical, just with the opposite buff colors.

Another option is a fake swap. Get new buffs, spend a night a your "new tribe" in a mad scramble to forge new alliances, only to show up to IC and have Jiffy say "psyche! Back to your original tribes." It could reveal who is willing to bolt on their alliance partners. Also very weird.


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TeamJoisey 3558 desperate attention whore postings
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03-28-04, 05:04 PM (EST)
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12. "My weird theory."

>The simplest explanation for me is
>after a buff-draw-gone-wrong, the only
>change is Amber is now
>a mogo. And Shii
>and Robs IC pic buffs
>have been photoshopped.
>

But this doesn't explain how Rob comes to be sitting in front of the Mogo treemail canister-of-doom, with a green buff on his left leg.

Rob ends up a Mogo... and Amber "I'm screwed" doesn't.

So here's a "weird" idea: Jeff invites them all to draw new buffs from an urn holding five red and five green. Through some bizarre coincidence, each of the four Mogos draws red, as does Amber. And they have to go live at Chapera.

Rob, Tom, Alicia Jenna and Rupert all draw green and go live at Mogo. Statistically, it may be extremely unlikely. But hey, people win the Powerball with worse odds. And this seems to be Burnett's snakebit season.

Knowing Ambuh is an obvious target, Rob considers throwing the IC. Of course he can't really talk his team into that, because it means they'd have to sacrifice themselves to save Ambuh. They win the IC.

Expecting an imminent Chapera-dominate merge, Kathy protects Ambuh to please the Robfadda. Kathy & Shii-Ann join with Ambuh to target Jerri.

Maybe Kathy explains this all to Lex, telling him that it's a done deal, and he can join them. Maybe she doesn't. But with the numbers, Lex won't be much use to her after a merge anyway. That's why she has been ingratiating herself with the Robfadda's Rat Pack.

So Jerri goes, 4-1.

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Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings
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03-28-04, 11:14 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: My weird theory."
My bad. I meant to say Amber is now WITH the Mogos, only they all have red buffs. All of the rest of the Chappys are now "greenies"

We totally agree.


I should really review my posts for clarity....

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Brownroach 15340 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-04, 12:58 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: What I've learned watching basketball on CBS all weekend"
Marko, the problem I see in your spec is Amber's comment about being *the one* who got screwed. True, she wouldn't be with Rob anymore, but is she really "screwed" on her new tribe as you have it? She's still with Tom and Rupert, and Kathy may be available to pull in. Amber's hardly in a terrible position there.

Saying she's *the one* who got screwed suggests to me that something relatively unique happened to Amber that didn't happen to anybody else.


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ilovedarrah 1 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-04, 07:01 PM (EST)
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15. "Alternating theory"
Hey all! First time post here, so bear with the newbie...

So here's how I think things may go down. RC, tribal switch, Ambuh goes to Mogomogo (or she is left alone) or what not. She has a chance to interact with the opposing tribe, (Burnett does this to counteract with Kathy's friendliness with Chapera.)

At IC, however, the tribes reconfigure and merge. The twist? The tribe that wins will snag immunity for the entire tribe. Which is why our vidcaps of alternating colors on each buff is so darn confusing.

In easier terms, 2 tribes living together, winning tribe gets immunity, but also gets too attend tribal council with the losing tribe. A variation off the thailand twist, and compliments the SNN merge-at-day-10 theory they've got going on.

I could be totally off, just something to think about.

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RyrieRae 416 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-04, 01:12 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Alternating theory"
MogoMogo: ROB, JENNA, Shii, Alicia
Chapera: Kathy, AMBER, Tom, Rupert, Lex, Jerri

I too was wandering how this situation would leave Amber "screwed." Sans Rob, she is still with two other people she has a semi-alliance with (Tom through Rob, and Rupert when she and Rob approached he and Jenna.)

I don't think her feeling screwed is a vulnerability to being voted out, but instead maybe she is referring to the three-some that has developed bewteen Rob, Jenna, and herself. Now that Jenna and Rob are together and separated from her, she feels screwed, socially? romantically?

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SqueezedRabbit 2 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-04, 02:13 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Alternating theory"
LAST EDITED ON 03-30-04 AT 03:47 PM (EST)

how's this for a scenario?

They meet, and are told one Chapera has to become a Mogo Mogo for good...that is Rob. Explains his green buff and sitting at Mogo.

Later, they have to drop their buffs and all pick new tribes...
The trivia challenge shows 5 Chapera, which means there has to be 5 mogo
new tribes are:

Red: Lex, Jerri, Amber, Kathy, Jenna

Green: Rob, Shii-Ann, Alicia, Rupert, Tom


This lineup explains all the buff colours with the exception of Rob(it doesn't explain how he has a red buff later on). However, a new twist comes, and as a bonus to the original Chapera that had to permanently switch to Mogo(Rob), he gets to choose someone to switch places with. Hence the reason for his BIG DECISION!! He decides since he has to switch, he would do well with a spy on green team, so he choooses Amber to switch. Rob is now Red and back on Chapera. Amber is now permanently a Mogo and has a green buff.

Come trivia challenge...and they find out that while they may have new tribe colours,(and living as a new tribe) they still belong to their old tribe and must compete as their original tribes *except for Amber, who is now permanently Mogo, therefore she must compete as a Mogo*. This explains how Jerri can be in a red buff, but sitting with her original Mogo tribe at the challenge. If the red we saw on Lex's arm was a buff, it would explain why he's sitting with Mogo as well.

Two ways for Jerri to get voted out:

Chapera loses IC and even though Jerri is now red, she WAS/IS Mogo, thus they vote her out.

Mogo loses IC and they end up having to go to TC with their old tribe. Since Jerri is now "sleeping with the enemy" (red buff of Chapera and living on their beach) then she is voted out.

I know it's a convoluded explanation, but it *does* explain all the previews.

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justwrong 63 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-04, 04:27 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Alternating theory"
i really can't see her having the emotion she showed in the preview if all she is talking about is that rob might end up banging jenna now instead of her. then again, she is a bit of a drama queen. i really hope there is more to it than that though. only a couple more days now, i guess we will see.
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silentJ 336 desperate attention whore postings
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03-31-04, 07:15 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: What I've learned watching basketball on CBS all weekend"
"but why don't we see Amber in any of the challenge caps?"

Burrnett has fixed his error of including her in the first place and had her quietly removed while Mogojojo was at TC. It willl not be addressed at all, much like the Darrens on "Bewitched".

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SqueezedRabbit 2 desperate attention whore postings
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04-01-04, 00:51 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: What I've learned watching basketball on CBS all weekend"
ROFL!! too funny! I think Amber is sitting just off camera to Kathy's left.
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