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ManateeBob 38 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-26-04, 11:01 AM (EST) "Sorting Alliances" LAST EDITED ON 03-26-04 AT 11:03 AM (EST) The Robfadda is a lightning rod character, you either love him or hate him, but with the exception of the fishing incident I think hes played an excellent game so far. Which set me to thinking about how many votes he has "for sure" or "likely" and that is of course dependant on how his (and everyone elses)alliances stack up. no star= sure vote (to the extent anything can be "99.999" sure) 1 star= likely vote 2 stars= iffy vote My take: Chapera Rob: -Amber-Tom*-Jenna*-Rupert** (a bit of ill will editing in) Amber: -Rob-Tom*-Jenna*-Rupert* Jenna: -Rob**-Amber**-Jerri** (recall Saboga camp)-Rupert** (recall the girls got rid of Rudy against his wishes) Rupert: -Jenna** (shelter and raft resentment)-Rob**-Amber** (Ramber have their own agenda)-Tom** (only possible alliance for Tom outside the Robfadda circle) Alicia: if she has any personal alliances above the general "chappy" commitment, I dont remember them Tom: -Rob*-Amber*-Rupert** (the Robfadda makes the decisions for the original 3 person core here, recall BT was reluctant to get rid of Cesterweenie, also Tom was not party to Ramber-Sabogans alliance) Mogo Mogo Lex: -Jerri (totally dependant on Lex to stay in game)-KVO*-Shii* Kathy: -Shii-Lex* (gut willing) Shii: -Kathy*-Lex** Jerri: -Lex**-Jenna** (obviously she doesnt get to actually make decisions, but theres some small chance Lex or Jenna might want her vote) So on my scorecard, if Amber can get through whatever "screwed" scenario we have this week and depending on who is booted, she is sitting on 5 votes that are at least "likely" (also consider the edits from this weeks recaps where you had Robfadda saying "worst case, were spending her million" and Amber with "I have Rob wrapped around my little finger") On the flip side, to this point I dont think we have seen any personal alliances for Alicia, and all her tribemates comments after the ole' log roll werent too fond either. Then you have Jerri, who can only get further into the game as a tool for someone elses agenda.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Sorting Alliances Get Bent 03-26-04 1    RE: Sorting Alliances ManateeBob 03-26-04 2        RE: Sorting Alliances Get Bent 03-26-04 3            RE: Sorting Alliances ManateeBob 03-26-04 4

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Get Bent 293 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-26-04, 12:49 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Sorting Alliances" I am a little slow today. So this thread is how current alliances would play out if the person made it to the final two and the others would vote, correct? To add a little. Lex and Rob are buddies in real life, so they would be likely to vote for each other. Rupert has commented previously that he only trusts Jenna. He would definately vote for Jenna. They did vote for Rudy, but I believe Rupert agreed to it, but was emotional and didn't want to write down Rudy's name. Jenna mentioned that Rob, Amber and she were good friends. I got the impression she meant out of the game. So they might be more solid votes in Jenna's favor as well. Of course it almost goes without saying that it would depend on how people got voted out on how they would vote for the winner. Plus, these are more seasoned players. I would think they would also be more likely to vote for the player they think is most worthy, who played the game the best. This may not just be a final vote for alliance partners.   Top

ManateeBob 38 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-26-04, 01:01 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Sorting Alliances" Actually I was approaching it more from the perspective of who is likely to get voted out before it devolves to F2 scenario. Once you backstab someone in a multi-party alliance as has to happen in the latter stages of the game, theres little chance you are going to get their vote for "sole survivor". Im just not enough of a Survivor junkie to know all about their interconnections outside of the game, so I just have to rely on what they slap on TV. Admittedly this is subject to misdirection.   Top

Get Bent 293 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-26-04, 01:36 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Sorting Alliances" So your first list above then shows the more vulnerable players have fewer names with stars in thier alliance. Do I have it right now?   Top

ManateeBob 38 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-26-04, 01:46 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Sorting Alliances" Sort of, fewer names is fewer allies, but the fewer stars the more solid the alliance. At least from what I have seen watching the show. Perhaps my post was more confusing than I had imagined... alas.   Top

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