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PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
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"contestant interaction"
JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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03-22-04, 02:10 PM (EST)
 
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"contestant interaction" |
Since this is kind of a dead week, I thought I'd throw this out there in terms of "strategy determining spoiler." I might be off base, but I don't think so. Of the remaining 10 players, who has had the most interaction with the other 9? Original Chappys - Rob, Amber, Alicia, Tom Tom also knows Lex from Africa. Those two went a full 37 days together before Tom's boot, and Lex's was the next day.
Rob knows Kathy from Marquesas, but they only played 3 days together on the same tribe.
Amber and Alicia know Jerri from Australia. Boot order back then: Alicia, Jerri, some guy who doesn't stand out (Nick), Amber. Chap/Sabogas - Rupert, Jenna Both of them are the only ones left from their series Original Mogos - Lex, Kathy, Shii Ann Mogo/Saboga - Jerri See above for prior season ties. The disolution of Saboga does give a small tie to the other tribe. Jenna and Jerri were pretty tight prior to the dissolution, and they did vote together to vote out Tina and Rudy. Rupert didn't want to vote out Rudy, and he doesn't like Jerri anyway. (And why would he? I mean, she only tried to help him build a shelter that wouldn't drown everyone. Qualifies as a beyotch in my book!) Two other events took place so far that allowed for a little intertribal dialogue. One was Kathy's boat trip with the Chappy's. Supposedly there was bonding, and she really fit in. However, then let's go to the next event: pillaging the other tribe. Kathy and Jenna were the "ambassadors". So one day Kathy is tight with the Chaps, and the next she is asked to scout out stuff to take. Hmmm..., are they still as happy with Kathy knowing that she was going to take a tarp and their parachute? Jenna, on the other hand, was able to be a diplomatic ambassador. She made a small, noble peace offering, and she let the Mogos keep some of their rice. At this point, in terms of simple interaction over the course of the game, Jenna has a lot of very subtle ins with everyone. She's been in Chapera long enough to really be one of them. She was with Saboga enough to have a tie with Rupert and Jerri. And her trip to the Mogos displayed a Rupert-S7-like generous spirit in rice giving so that they could physically survive. Right now, Jenna is in the mega-power playing position right now. Not only is she UTR in her own tribe, but she is tighter w/the Mogos than Kathy is w/the Chaps. Should she have to defect on the Romber alliance, she and Rupert will be welcomed quickly by Jerri and the Mogos. I think this becomes especially important with the swap coming up. Alliances will reform, but Jenna is in a power position right now.
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Dakota 5819 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-22-04, 02:49 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: contestant interaction" |
I agree. Jenna has options open to her - Rupert, Kathy, Jerri, Lex, possibly Tom via Rupert. Also, Ramber might keep her before anyone else because she stinks at challenges; she even screwed up the mental one of rock/feather/driftwood.
Kathy may fit in, but she's seen as mentally smart and strong -- thus a threat. I could see Kathy/Shii teaming up with Rupert/Jenna to vote out Rob if there was a merge; Lex/Jeri would join in. Or Kathy could go with Rob, like the old days. I wouldn't be surprised if Ramber didn't approach Kathy after the merge because his alliance with Rupert/Jenna is as solid as the one he had with RobC. Once Alicia's gone, the tribe doesn't seem to have a consenus as to who should go, so Ramber will need support. Also, Ethan planted the idea in Kathy's head that Lex will go after Kathy before Jeri. And let's not forget Tom's words "The girls are loosening her up" to get information. So her acceptance by the whole tribe is doubtful. She may not be in as strong a position as she thinks there. What I can't fathom is Lex having any kind of alliance once Jeri goes, unless Kathy/Shii stick with him. He may get people to vote his way, but I don't see any other strong alliances in his future.
In any case, I agree that Jenna is in the power position right now.
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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03-22-04, 03:24 PM (EST)
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2. "the big problem with your theory...." |
...is that you can't just look at past Survivor seasons to determine who is friends with who in this game. Remember, these whores are always showing up at the same fundraisers/survivor finale parties/etc for each season so there are a lot of relationships we don't know about.For instance, did you know that Lex and RobM are good friends? You wouldn't if you just went on your analysis. Also, Rob and Kathy only played together for 3 days, but I get the feeling that they became friends from all the post show stuff. Jerri and Alicia went shopping together in Australia after S2, but there are rumors of a falling out in later years. Same goes for Jerri and Amber. Colby and Alicia were rumored to have sex in a NYC nightclub bathroom...don't know if its true, but it was reported on Page 6. Unless you have been to the finale parties and heard/seen all the first hand gossip there is no way of knowing who is friends and who isn't. 
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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03-22-04, 06:13 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: the big problem with your theory...." |
I have to start by saying that I have never had the clown reply to any of my posts before. I am honored, Sir Clown.*bows in reverence* So back to the business at hand *gets back up, brushes dirt of knee, and looks at Shakes straight in the eye* Ok, ok, I get your point. It's not just who they played with in the former season, but it's also who they played with on the circuit and after the game is over. That whole Rob/Lex alliance has a real Brian/Clay feel to it. I hope someone breaks that pair of lovebirds up! (Wait a minute... Boston Rob... gay marraige in MA... Rob and Lex... ARGH! SOMEONE SCRATCH MY EYES OUT!!!) But the real issue is how they are interacting with each other in the game. If Rob and Lex had some alliance going into the game, then there's no way for us to know that until the whole thing unfolds. But what we are shown are some of the more obvious things, such as intra-tribal alliances, the dissolution of Saboga, Kathy's free immunity pass, and the ambassadors. So my call on this situation as it exists, some 2 weeks before watch it all get thrown to h311 in a swap, is that Jenna is in a major power position right now. She's UTR enough to not be noticed, but seen enough for people to get her Sandra vote. If the majority wants her vote, they can't vote her out.
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Get Bent 293 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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03-22-04, 04:17 PM (EST)
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3. "Agree w Shakes, and Rob Lex theory" |
I agree with Shakes 100%. If we base a theory on what we know to be all the current relationships, we will be wrong. What we can do is come up with smaller theory's based on what we know to be trued based on recent information.
I posted this theory in another thread, but it now seems more appropriate here. Mitch recently confirmed that Rob and Lex are very good friends (and Rob and Amber are still dating).
So my Lex / Rob F2 theory is:
If Lex and Rob were good friends, they could have hatched an excellent plan to succeed as a F2 pair if on other tribes. Their plan would be to vote off the most conniving and/or strongest challenge players. Which explains why Lex is planning the downfall of MM, and why Rob M got rid of Rob C (instead of Alicia, who he obviously hates). It wouldn't matter that Lex appeared to be a threat to the dominant tribe, because Lex and Rob are partners, and they would pair up (with their strongest alliance partners Amber, Kathy, Jenna?) and pick off the remaining players as they see fit (assuming they use the same ideas of eliminating based on a threat). Plus they surrounded themselves with women, which should ensure one of the men winning the final immunity (usually strength and endurance) and taking the other man with him. So, just another contestant relationship theory FWIW! 
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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03-22-04, 04:33 PM (EST)
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4. "just a quick point" |
>
>I agree with Shakes 100%....nothing to say here, just wanted to point out to the board that someone has been drinking the kool aid.
Plus they
>surrounded themselves with women, which
>should ensure one of the
>men winning the final immunity
>(usually strength and endurance) and
>taking the other man with
>him.
>
S1 = young athletic woman beats old, still functioning man in final immunity. Other contestant quits on purpose. S3 = old decrepid lady beats two strapping young men in final immunity. S6 = young swimsuit model beats one strapping young man and one not so strapping young man in final immunity challenge. S7 = old, whinny, useless hag beats young not at all strapping young man in final immunity.
S2 had fallen comrades as the final IC so no relevance there. S5 is the only example of a strong male winning a final endurance challenge.
In other words, you better go back to the drawing board with your "theory" Get Bent. Also, this doesn't even take into account that Lex has already screwed over a good friend in this game and has made a point of stating how friendships aren't important this time. Therefore, why should a friendship with Rob be any more important than his other friendships outside the game.
Bad theory, good try.
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The post directly above, that is. ETA: well, actually I agree with both posts, but this concerns the second one.
