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"Kathy boot? an analysis"
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ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"

03-14-04, 02:14 PM (EST)
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"Kathy boot? an analysis"
although I hate the thought of her going I want to know what you guys think about this, feedback from shakestheclown and krautboy are appreciated .

1. We know how lex likes to cut the throats off of snakes and how he will turn on an ally despite common logic that he needs them.

2. We know KO spilled the beans about her tribe.

3. We know Rob M. loves to stir up stuff and he can be diabolical and tell secrets.

So my theory is....lets just say it is an even merge for the sake of this theory (it works better that way, but works either way)

Rob M. needs to get the advantage for his tribe (or possibly get someone targetted other than himself if chapera has the bigger tribe) So he needs to get someone booted.

He goes to lex and says "KO told us alll your secrets about how you and shii and ko are an alliance...blah blah blah.."

So lex goes crazy and turns on KO, rob m and his little cronies also turn on her and she becomes the first member of the jury.

ok, so what do you think?

am i off my rocker?

come on shakes, I know you will have an opinion

I don’t really give a damn which one of the two goes, as long as it ain’t me."-Sandra Diaz-Twine

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 sorry ivory.... shakes the clown 03-14-04 1
   RE: sorry ivory.... ivoryElephant 03-14-04 4
 RE: Kathy boot? an analysis RealityRyan 03-14-04 2
 RE: Kathy boot? an analysis PelicanPete 03-14-04 3
 RE: Kathy boot? an analysis bobscure 03-14-04 5
 RE: Kathy boot? an analysis Krautboy 03-14-04 6
   RE: Kathy boot? an analysis jsanb 03-15-04 8
       RE: Kathy boot? an analysis KObrien_fan 03-15-04 9
 RE: Kathy boot? an analysis Brownroach 03-15-04 7
 RE: Kathy boot? an analysis Round Robin 03-16-04 10

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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03-14-04, 02:34 PM (EST)
Click to EMail shakes%20the%20clown Click to send private message to shakes%20the%20clown Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
1. "sorry ivory...."
...but I don't see this one happening at all, for a number of reasons.

>1. We know how lex likes
>to cut the throats off
>of snakes and how he
>will turn on an ally
>despite common logic that he
>needs them.
>
>2. We know KO spilled the
>beans about her tribe.


...first of all, there is a difference between being a snake and voting outside the alliance and being a dumb loudmouth who wasn't thinking.

Also, what did Kathy really tell Chapera? That her, Shi and Lex were voting together? As soon as she said that lamber responded taht Chapera had already assumed that. So, it was common knowledge that those three were voting together. No harm, no foul Kathy there. Plus, at this point in the game when your tribe only has 4 people in it plus 2 old Sabogas I don't think it is much of a secret who is voting with who.

Also, I'm sure Lex has Kathy pegged as his partner to the end in this game...with Shi riding third place. Survivor is a numbers game and at this point Lex knows that he can't get rid of ANYONE in his voting group, lest he end up being set up for a royal pagonging. This isn't Boran where Lex had surplus to play with and dispose of.


>
>3. We know Rob M. loves
>to stir up stuff and
>he can be diabolical and
>tell secrets.


..no way RobM rats out Kathy. First of all, he doesn't need to, they already ahve the numerical advantage going into a merge. SEcond of all, Chapera hasKathy targeted as a possible recruit so why would they try to get her booted? Thirdly, and most important, I get the impression that Rob likes Kathy a lot and Rob isn't the type of person to screw over his friends for no reason.

>So my theory is....lets just say
>it is an even merge
>for the sake of this
>theory (it works better that
>way, but works either way)

...how can you propose an even merge at this point???? Mogo is already down one and all spoilers point to Jerri and ethan going next two. You simply CAN'T hypothesize (sp) using an even merge as a controlled variable, despite the fact that it makes your theory more plausible. That's irresponsible spoiling.



>Rob M. needs to get the
>advantage for his tribe (or
>possibly get someone targetted other
>than himself if chapera has
>the bigger tribe) So he
>needs to get someone booted.

...see, that makes no sense unless we have an even merge....adn we all know that we won't.



>ok, so what do you think?
>
>
>am i off my rocker?


....completely....this one makes my "ethan quits" theory look as credible as the "second shooter Kennedy assasination" theory.


>
>come on shakes, I know you
>will have an opinion


...you asked, and you got. Sorry it couldn't be more favorable. I can't even give you credit for trying its so bad.

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ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings
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03-14-04, 07:03 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: sorry ivory...."
Thanks shakes, I knew it was flawed somehow but couldn't get it out of my head. I was so focused I couldn't come up with all the points you gave.

I guess i am just really paranoid thst she could go

I donít really give a damn which one of the two goes, as long as it ainít me."-Sandra Diaz-Twine

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RealityRyan 218 desperate attention whore postings
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03-14-04, 02:36 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Kathy boot? an analysis"
Well... certain spoilers have put Kathy going pretty soon after the merge and in the last episode, we were hit over the head with forshadowing about Kathy having to walk a fine/dangerous line between both tribes once they were merged... I can't really see Shii-Hag and all of Chapera voting against Kathy so early, so if she does get the boot, she must do something incredibly stupid.

Kathy must win !!! Down with THE RUPERT!
I heart America's Next Top Model

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PelicanPete 140 desperate attention whore postings
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03-14-04, 03:04 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Kathy boot? an analysis"
IE, I say this with love: I think your paranoid.

Kathy is defintiely secure for now. In her tribe, she is now behind Ethan, Jerri, and Shii Ann on the boot list (and maybe even Lex). At merge, likes shakes said, she is the recruit that Chappy has in the bag; so they would have no reason to stir up any thing that may trigger Lex's gut. If Lex finds out about her plan, instead of biting off Kathy's head, he may stay calm and work for a counter alliance with the Chaperian Sabogans (JennaL/Rupert) to form a block 'til the final 5, where Shii can go first guaranteeing them F4. Just my thoughts.

Don't worry about KO...for now.

-PP

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bobscure 217 desperate attention whore postings
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03-14-04, 07:12 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Kathy boot? an analysis"
I disagree too, if it matters. Just to keep you paranoid, I do think this may be the beginning of her story arc, assuming there are only 3-4 boots in front of her.

Bob

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-14-04, 11:04 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Kathy boot? an analysis"
Interesting idea IvoryElephant, but I have to agree with Shakes that it doesn't seem very likely at this stage of the game.

Lex, Kathy and Shii Ann had a solid alliance before Kathy was selected for the cruise. Kathy was selected by Chapera, so Lex has no reason to doubt Kathy's loyalty. Even if Rob had an opportunity to claim that Kathy was disloyal, Lex is not very likely to believe Rob over Kathy.

With Mogo Mogo behind in numbers, Lex will do everything he can to keep his core alliance together, going into the merge. Kathy is an integral part of his plan and Lex knows he needs her post merge.

In addition we have the Teddy bear spoiler that Snewser has confirmed as an indication Kathy makes it to the merge. If she goes before Lex, it's not because Lex wanted to "cut the head off the snake", but rather that Lex wins individual immunity and Kathy is the next logical target, as the Chapera start picking off the Mogo Mogo.

Lex will try to go into the merge with as strong an alliance as possible, in hopes of bringing Big Tom back over to reunite with him and Ethan. Kathy is part of that alliance until Chapera says otherwise...


Krautboy

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jsanb 178 desperate attention whore postings
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03-15-04, 06:07 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Kathy boot? an analysis"
>Lex will try to go into the merge with as strong an alliance as possible, in hopes of bringing Big Tom back over to reunite with him and Ethan. Kathy is part of that alliance until Chapera says otherwise...

If Lex really wanted a strong tribe Colby and maybe even Richard would still be around. Lex f***ed up, the editing tells us that, even JP slapped him for assuming when there would be a merge.

It will be too late for Lex now.....

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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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03-15-04, 06:40 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Kathy boot? an analysis"
Sorry JS, read the text again, KB didn't say a strong TRIBE going into the merge, he said a strong ALLIANCE. There is a huge difference between the two. Colby and certainly Richard could not be trusted.

KO lost 31 pounds during all stars, I think she is safe for a while still.


Surgeon General G.A.W.K.U.R's of OT

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Brownroach 15340 desperate attention whore postings
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03-15-04, 03:39 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Kathy boot? an analysis"
So my theory is....lets just say it is an even merge for the sake of this theory (it works better that way, but works either way)

Rob M. needs to get the advantage for his tribe (or possibly get someone targetted other than himself if chapera has the bigger tribe) So he needs to get someone booted.

I thought the point of inviting Kathy on the reward was that Chapera was hoping to swing her over *in the event* the tribes go into the merge at even numbers. Having made some inroads with Kathy in that regard, why would they try to get her booted first? More likely they'd want her to help get rid of Lex.

But it's moot because it's pretty obvious there won't be an even merge.


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Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-04, 00:35 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Kathy boot? an analysis"
The chances of KO going next are slim and none and slim's on a ship with a big hole in its hull. Besides everything others have said on here, the annoyance factor would make Jerri a better target for the next boot, merge or no merge. That would be true even if the tribes were still even. If the idea at the next TC is to get rid of immunity threats, Lex or Ethan would seem to be more likely targets than KO, maybe Jerri also. And if Lex's gut starts malfunctioning like it did in Africa, and he starts looking for somebody he can't trust, I would wager on Jerri or Shii Ann being more likely targets. For just about any reason you can think of for booting somebody, you can find somebody on MM other than KO, merge or no merge, tribes even or not. KO ain't going next. Bet the farm.
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