Okay... having taken a few seconds to find out a little more about these people...

Lance Bass: Well, he used to move fairly well, but we've watched a number of rock stage dancers transition over to ballroom by now -- enough to know that instant translation of skills isn't always a sure thing, and your rock beat can trip you up with the judges. I'm a little disappointed that we're not looking at a male/male dance pairing, mostly because I wanted to see Len's head explode. There's no such thing as a monolithic gay community voting block: he'll pick up some votes from that sector, others from fans of his music, and yes, the protests from the AFA and PTC have already started: thank you for asking. Too much support to go out early, but not enough to advance beyond midgame.

Toni Braxton: This could actually be the health issues removal: she had heart problems very recently (had to cancel part of a tour) and while she may feel she's recovered enough to do this, the training routine could put her back into the hospital very quickly if she's wrong. As far as popularity goes, she's got some name recognition and her music still gets a bit of airplay, so the fanbase will be there: what she needs is enough performance to balance it out. Should get at least a third of the way through.

Brooke Burke: It's a dog-eat-dog world on the dance floor... I think part of the problem with prior models isn't just the rumored 'People think she's pretty, so I won't vote for her' female casting priority: it's the way they move. Model movements tend to be very regimented: with limited exceptions, they don't have a lot of flow to their rhythms -- and that kills them as dancers. Brooke's a little looser than most of her occupation, which helps her -- and doesn't seem to take anything too seriously, which probably won't. She could go fairly far if her fanbase shows up in repeated-dialing numbers -- but Brooke's biggest fans wouldn't watch DWTS for fear it might somehow make them feel attracted to Lance. She might get as far as two-thirds in if everything breaks right for her, but I keep seeing her as an early elimination.

Rocco DiSpirito: Get. Off. My. Screen. Haven't you had enough chances at reality television by now? You can't hold your own show, you can't serve as a decent guest-star on someone else's, gawds only know if you can actually cook because your number of closings isn't exactly a helpful hint, and your mother isn't throwing meatballs at you as you oil your way around the floor. What are you, Mark Burnett's revenge for Jeff having hosted five whole minutes? Sadly, there are women and men who consider him cute (mostly because they haven't gotten to know him), so he'll get past the first vote, possibly the second, could skid through the third... Well, maybe he won't win. Maybe. Let us hope.

Maurice Greene: What fanbase? Point to the rabid track followers. Oh, there you are. All -- twelve of you. Well, at least he won't go out on zero... He'd better be good, because it's going to be the judges' scoring saving him until he builds up enough appreciation for any talent he might display to get a few votes flowing in his direction. As such, he's a wild card: if he comes up deuce first thing, he's out early (and possibly first): show a face value, and he just might manage to get close to the finals. But it's all about how much natural talent he has and how quickly he can develop it -- not to mention personality. He'd better have one.

Kim Kardashian: You'd think this would be her great chance to make America think good things of her. And you would have thought that about her reality show, too. And look what happened there. Well, she can spin from partner to partner, we all know that, but it's not going to help her here... If she comes in with her sense of humor on full display, laughs off her image while simultaneously playing it for jokes, chooses a few self-mocking songs to get started with, and basically plays the Pamela Anderson 'I'm not only in on the joke, I'm writing it!' card, she could push herself all the way to midgame. One diva fit and she's out within three episodes.

Cloris Leachman: Eighty-two? Gawds bless her. And save her. From the judges, who are only going to give her so much allowance for age before they drag out the 4s and 5s anyway. Can she move? Can she twirl? Can Corky (Corky?) do most of the work and mask her performance? Did everyone else just go to www.corky.com too? (It's his!) This might be the mercy lack-of-votes: if she gets in any trouble, people might stay away in droves to help her escape it. Her fanbase is multi-generational and might be deeper than most people suspect -- but if she shows any signs of weakness, then they may care too much about her to put her through this.... Blucher!

Cody Linley: His performance doesn't matter. Does. Not. Matter. He has the Hannah Factor behind him, and look what that did for Billy Ray. Remember what happened then? We all fled from the crazy bear in the woods and had to keep glancing back because he wouldn't stop running. With the rumors starting to fly that he'll get a permanent part on the series, he'll be looked at as part of that crew -- and will get the same voting block. He can svck beyond svckage and he'll still make it halfway through. Any talent at all and he's final four. Cover your ears, kids: that many tweens screaming at once can kill at forty miles...

Susan Lucci: Wins. How bad would she have to be not to win? We've wondered what would happen if a real A-lister made it onto the show, and now we're going to find out. She may not be mainstream A-list, but she's A+ when it comes to the soap fans, and do you think they're all going to cut off their viewing habits at four in the afternoon and sleep through the vote? Not. Bloody. Likely. So all she has to do is show up, display a level of competence just above Master P's, and not die. Do that, and she's F3, guaranteed. Isn't it nice to see her in a competition she doesn't have to wait nearly two decades to beat? No? Too bad, because that's what's very, very likely to happen. The Emmy people don't factor into this, and there's a very big fanbase out there which doesn't want to see her wait.

Misty May-Treanor: And thus the trend continues: we will pair Maksim with the strongest possible female in terms of physical presence and personality, then watch him slowly go (more) insane. The Olympics will give her a boost (as she got more screen time than Maurice) and she's already got a bit of fanbase to build on. Since she doesn't have the model anti-vote to work against, Misty should be able to get some distance into this competition if she can slow herself down a little: this is not the event to showing off how well you can lunge, at least outside of one or two given dances. This is the time for her to make a run for it, and I suspect she'll be taking this fairly seriously -- I just don't think she can get the kind of following behind her that she'd need to reach the finals. She may wind up as the Dancer Who Goes Out In The Week Someone Else Clearly Svcked. (There's always one.)

Ted McGinley: So basically, they're all sick of doing the show and they want the thing off the air already, so they decided to take what they thought was the subtle approach... We've had the VFTW fanbase in play a few times, but this is the first season where Jump The Shark decides to back their hero. He's got a little bit of charisma (presumably the reason he keeps getting cast), so he's not going to be the first one out. And if he can work a tuxedo and get a few small hormone surges started cross-continent, he could go a little deeper. He's just not F3 without a lot of unexpected talent, a ton of luck, and at least three people being sent to jail for trying to kill Samantha Harris in a fit of stupid-question-inspired rage. At the end of the season, we may be asking if he was ever truly there. Oh, he was there. The cancellation notice will say so.

Jeffrey Ross: Let's see. Out of shape, hardly anyone's heard of him, most of his comedy is based on insult humor and cruelty, and has a giant tattoo on his forehead reading 'Place First Boot Here.' If he isn't the initial elimination, then he's either his junior high school ballroom champ and getting his dance floor legs back, or the fix is in.

Warren Sapp: Has some major differences from our prior football players, not the first of which is that he's intermittently insane. (Think anyone will try to slip poison into his dancing shoes?) But he also doesn't come from one of the glamour positions, and unlike our previous NFL alumni, he's not just big: he's bulky. He's proven that he can get his mass moving in a hurry, but -- he's got a lot of mass, and it tends to carry a long way. Sometimes that long way is straight down. Here's hoping he doesn't trip forward at any point, or it's goodbye Kym... A degree of fanbase here and has athletic ability, but needs to get his moves under control, drop twenty -- forty -- possibly sixty pounds -- and not accuse the judges of mounting the floor on ball bearings. Probably out just before midseason.

I'm very probably wrong.