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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 03-09-04, 01:34 PM (EST) "Why I think the Colbster goes this week" It is with great trepidation that I start this thresd. After all, for those of you with great memories you may remember this is not the first time I started a "colby goes next" thresd. The other time was the week of either the F4 or F5 in Survivor 2...and we all know how that prediction turned out So, nervous that history will repeat itself, I am very hesitant to do this...but I will anyway. Here is why I think Colby is the boot this week. I think we can all agree that the boot will come from MogoMogo and will be one of three people, Colby, Ethan or Jerri. Various spoilers seem to point to these three as teh only boot candidates this week. Now, Jerri seems like the obvious boot, but she has a couple of things working for her. For one, she is way too in our face in all the previews and unless your name is Hunter that is a sure sign that you are safe. Also, Jerri has been edited as seeking revenge on Colby several times this in the last couple of episodes. I don't think MB would be stressing that storyline if it wasn't goint to come to fruition. Further, Orangeena's source seems to believe that Jerri will get her revenge...and at this point I do believe that Orange has a legitimate source, probably a former castmenber not in #####. So, all that rules out Jerri for me. Now, on to Ethan. First of all, Ethan's screen time has basically disappeared in the last couple of episodes. He was shown early in the series when he was in danger, but now has seemed to drift to his familiar spot on the backburner. But, here is the big reason I don't think Ethan goes this week. Varner, in his preseason web reports stated two things that stand out to me...one, being that Ethan throws a huge hissy fit that he won't be proud of, and two, that Rob takes things to a personal level when he "outs" a castmember for some of his/her extracurricular activities with other castmembers. We know that Ethan has dated both Jennas and Amber, plus there is the belief that Ethan "overlaped" JennaL and Amber. If that's the case, and without much else to talk about out there, I bet that is a huge topic of conversation between Amber and RobM...especially with JennaL now on Chapera...but especially with 3 of Ethan's "women" in the game. I can totally picture RobM going on about how Ethan has this perfect squeaky clean image whereas he is considered a dog and yet, Ethan is the biggest dog there is. And now that Rob has a thing for Amber I can totally see him making Ethan's life a living hell if they were on the same tribe...especially the way Rob likes to (A) hold court and (B) ignite the fuse of drama amongst his tribemates. Maybe its a lot of spec on my part, but the Rob/Ethan same tribe scenario seems too perfect given all the rumors and possible spoilers we have. And I don't see Ethan throwing a hissy fit about anything other than this type of crap..he's not the type to cry about something that happens at a challenge given his background in sports and I don't see anyone at MM really pushing his buttons now or in the future. Plus, we've already seem some hints at Rob/Ethan animosity in the series with Rob calling Ethan a pretty boy and the vicious way he whupped Ethan's @ss in the last challenge. Plus, on top of that, there is the long held rumor that ONE of the previous winners makes the merge and possibly the jury. Well, Ethan is the only previous winner we have left. Take all these factors in account and I think Ethan is safe this week. That brings us to our only option, Colby. Colby has definitely been given a spike in air time, plus he's already been edited as the near-bootee. Plus, he put a spotlight on himself by changing the tribe's plans and engineering a suprise boot. People who change the tribe's plans and engineer suprise boots have a history of getting voted out the very next episode....rigth Brandon? Plus, from JennaM's exit interviews we know that Colby was the original MM target from day 1. Well, Colby managed to avoid that by getting rid of target #2, but the spotlight should be firmly fixed on him again. Lex seems to have a bond with Colby, but Lex has a much stronger and time tested bond with Ethan so I don't see Lex having a problem with substituting Ethan for Colby in the MM hierarchy. All this adds up to a Colbster boot and some sweet revenge for Jerri.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... ecroswell21 03-09-04 1    RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... Brownroach 03-09-04 3  RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... Dalton 03-09-04 2    RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... Brownroach 03-09-04 5    one problem shakes the clown 03-09-04 6    RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... Loquatrix 03-09-04 12    RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... Woogie 03-09-04 25  I concur... IceCat 03-09-04 4  RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... samboohoo 03-09-04 7  RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... Blow by Blow 03-09-04 8    RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... Brownroach 03-09-04 15  RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... Krautboy 03-09-04 9    RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... pmspml5 03-09-04 10  RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... jsanb 03-09-04 11    RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... redbeard103152 03-09-04 18  RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... RopesandChains 03-09-04 13    I'm convinced RopesandChains 03-09-04 22  Agreed weltek 03-09-04 14  RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... emydi 03-09-04 16  RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... SouperStar 03-09-04 17  RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... Flowerpower 03-09-04 19  RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... munson 03-09-04 20    RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... raidersfantom 03-09-04 21        RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... tommiettop 03-09-04 24  RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... strid333 03-09-04 23  RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... mmm_link 03-10-04 26    RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... raidersfantom 03-10-04 27  Props to Shakes from the Orange One Brownroach 03-10-04 28    RE: Props to Shakes from the Orange... true 03-10-04 35  RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... Outfrontgirl 03-10-04 29    thanks OFG! shakes the clown 03-10-04 30        Howdy all AyaK 03-11-04 39  RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... PelicanPete 03-10-04 31    RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... Get Bent 03-10-04 32    RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... ADKer 03-10-04 33        RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... Outfrontgirl 03-10-04 34            RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... dabo 03-10-04 36  Good arguments for a Colby boot. mavsfan 03-11-04 37  RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... ivoryElephant 03-11-04 38  RE: Why I think the Colbster goes t... Desert Trip 03-12-04 40

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ecroswell21 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 03-09-04, 02:07 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" Let me preface this post with saying that I am in 100% agreement with your theory of Colby going this week. Question fo you.... the twist..... so you think it could be the fact that each tribe is going to compete within each other. There would be two immunities up for grabs, one for a tribe member in each tribe. Both tribes would go to TC and both tribes would vote someone out while one person would have immunity for each tribe. Hmmmmmmmm...... at any rate, colby is a goner.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-09-04, 02:26 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" It seems like the big twist is just that the challenge is for both reward and immunity -- hardly a twist, imo, unless all the challenges are like that going forward. Also, it's speculated that the TC's are accelerated at some point to account for having to boot 2 extra players. Most sources like Snewser et al do not believe two players ever get booted at the same time (the projected episode schedule also makes this seem highly unlikely).   Top

Dalton 1271 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 03-09-04, 02:25 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" Cripes I hate to disagree with Bozo when he's logical but logical doesn't mean correct, especially on Survivor. Lex, Colby and Ethan know they have to compete in at least two more ICs before they get down to the magic 9-person merge event. They also know they have to keep people who can beat Rob M. Big Tom and Rupert in the ICs. To boot Colby in Ep-7 increases their chances of losing in Ep-8. Therefore, I think Mogo Mogo (should they go to TC) will boot either their weakest challenge player SHII ANN; or, in the alternative, their most annoying/b!tchy tribemate JERRI. Either such boot still leaves Mogo Mogo with a tribe which can still win challenges. Dalton   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-09-04, 02:37 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" A lot of people have brought this up, but I just don't see Mogo Mogo as being overly worried about it. They never outright lost a challenge until the last IC, and that was mostly because of Chapera's strategy of having the clumsier players fall off so Rob could go; not because of any weak link at Mogo. And then Mogo proceeded to win the next RC. "Weaker" players are more identifiable if they actually screw up in challenges; Shii Ann has sat out too many of them to be perceived as a severe liability. From what we've seen I think strategy/politics will be the overriding factor in who gets the boot at Mogo -- and I too expect Colby to go next.   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 03-09-04, 02:42 PM (EST) 6. "one problem" >Lex, Colby and Ethan know they >have to compete in at >least two more ICs >before they get down to >the magic 9-person merge event. .....these days, there is no way of telling when the merge is going to take place. If anyone in ##### is going to be unsure of the actual merge date it would be MM member ShiAnn who has already been burned once by thinking she knows how the game works. We've seen over the past few Survivors that keeping your team strong is no longer a priority as much as getting rid of future IC threats....and Colby is definitely an IC threat. Plus, as IceCat stated, Colby has proved himself to be a strong gameplayer as well with his Richard ouster which would have to make the other MM members nervous about him possibly jumping ship post merge....he's already gone against the group once, why not again? And we know that he was never part of the original MM dominant alliance (Lex, Kathy, ShiAnn) which is far more important than keeping strong IC competitors around. No way ShiAnn leaves this episode, not when she has Jerri as a shield in case they want to get rid of a weak IC member. But, must say that its great to see Dalton posting again....haven't seen you in a while!   Top

Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-09-04, 03:44 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" >Lex, Colby and Ethan know they >have to compete in at >least two more ICs >before they get down to >the magic 9-person merge event. >They also know they have >to keep people who can >beat Rob M. Big Tom >and Rupert in the ICs. Can we have a look ahead to potential post-merge alliances at this point? The reason I ask is that, like many, I find it hard to believe that Green will cannibalize their strongest players while those players are needed for pre-merge tribal immunity challenges. However, what if the "power players," Lex and Kathy, are looking ahead to the post-merge situation and envisaging some easy inroads into new alliances with ex-Chapera members, and are therefore content to risk losing pre-merge immunity challenges if that's the outcome of shedding strong tribemates like Colby and Ethan? I don't know enough about early Survivor seasons to be able to refer to existing relationships from earlier seasons, so I request assistance from longer-term spoilers in examining the potential of this theory. FWIW, I'm already sold on the Colby boot this week, and therefore I find it necessary to explore the justifications for canning the challenge-winner types while they're still "needed."   Top

Woogie 135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-09-04, 10:36 PM (EST) 25. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" Well, They all know who's strong or not. They all know Rich is better than Shii Ann. They all know that Colby is better than Shhi Ann. The problem is... Survivor never works that way. Especially in the event of ALLSTAR games, expecting that to happen is not so good. Tina - former winner Rudy - only person left because he's weak in the game yet Jenna M - left Rob C - ousted by Boston Rob Rich - former winner and getting on nerves by stripping Sue - left They(Kathy and Lex) are keeping Shii because they can anytime vote out her after merge. Shii will not be able to win any individual ICs... Jerri? MB's editing shows she won't go this time(may be MB fooling us knowing spoilers based on his editing but I don't think he will suddenlly change the way of editing after 7 seasons!!!) It's either Ethan or Colby and.. Most probably Colby because he has been trying to rule the tribe, and think he is. But no! Lex is in the role! And may be Lex loses the role in this episode. Who knows-- Anyway no way Shii or jerri goes^^   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-09-04, 02:32 PM (EST) 4. "I concur..." He took far too visable a role in Dicque's ouster and, thus, strapped a rather large target onto his own back. Jerri will easily get Kathy and Shii Ann on board along with Ethan who will be more than happy to postpone his own ouster. Lex's participation will be added bonus.   Top

samboohoo 17173 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-09-04, 02:42 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" LAST EDITED ON 03-09-04 AT 02:43 PM (EST) I too am going to disagree with a Colby boot as well. I do agree that the Mogos go to TC, and I do agree with the three targets. I also agree on the Ethan situation. Jeff even made a comment on a local interview here that some of the players have dated and that will play into it. We've had Jenna and Ethan together and had some tension, but there will probably be more. Jerri has made numerous comments about getting revenge on those who wronged her the first time around. She got Tina, but maybe she won't get Colby and that's why there's been so much hype. Lex has stated that it's business, and Kathy has mentioned that it's pure unadulterated "playing the game." The Mogos cannot risk going down another member. Shii Ann is weaker than Jerri and will not be a threat later. Jerri can go this week, keeping a strong Colby and Ethan. Colby and Ethan can be disposed of later, even post merge (Colby's an immunity threat and Ethan's a previous winner). The real Jerri comes out this week, and no amount of MB editing can hide it. Thus it's in our face. Edited to add that this may be Lex's critical mistake. Samboohoo   Top

Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 03-09-04, 02:43 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" >>Take all these factors in account and I think Ethan is safe this week. Actually, you need to take all those factors into account and determine that Ethan is not only safe this week, but next week and perhaps the week after. That seems hard to believe, which casts doubt on all the Ethan spoilers you've cited, which in turn makes an Ethan boot a real possibility this week. -BbB I do more to not work than actual work.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-09-04, 04:53 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" That seems hard to believe, which casts doubt on all the Ethan spoilers you've cited Why is it hard to believe, BxB? Ethan would only have to last until the merge, which could be as early as next week. Even if it's the following week, why couldn't Jerri get booted in the interim? Like Colby, she tried to impose her boot choice on the others last week. The more other people try to direct things at Mogo Mogo, the safer Ethan remains, imo.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-09-04, 02:57 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" Thanks Shakes, you've saved me the trouble of having to write a long winded explanation of why Colby is the likely boot this week. You are at your best when spoiling, rather than flaming... Just wanted to add that I think the vidcaps have hinted at the choice the tribe will need to make at TC... Krautboy   Top

pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 03-09-04, 03:24 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" I think that Colby is definately a possibility - and one I would like however there have been a few little things that are bugging me. 1. Jenna L. confessional where she states that Ethan gets too excited during challenges and makes mistakes - why was that edited in? 2. "Sorry-I blew it" 3. The picture of Ethan standing. I think that all along they plan to boot Colby (Shii Ann, Ethan, and Jerri all have no reason to keep him) however - Ethan could really blow it and cause them to go from ahead to behind which in the end leads to his ouster. Not sure if this happens or not but I love Shakes deductive reasoning and agree with it - just these little nags on ya.   Top

jsanb 178 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-09-04, 03:29 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" I agree that it will come down to a Jerri vs. Colby ouster, and I lean towards Colby going. Jerri has revenge, Shii hates Capt America, Kathy has control of the tribe with Colby going, and Ethan doesn't care as long as it is not himself. It is a bad move for Lex, but he will let his gut do the thinking.... Colby goes.   Top

redbeard103152 466 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 03-09-04, 05:48 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" And we all know just how good Lexs gut is to him. May be a bigger screw up than the one his gut lead him to in Africa. When the Mongo chips start falling even Lex may not be able to survive.RedBeard   Top

RopesandChains 33 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-09-04, 04:16 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" First of all, thanks for the detailed analysis Shakes. I have been going back and forth in my mind between Ethan and Colby but leaning towards Ethan. We have seen pics that seem to have Lex and Colby working together. Jerri has indicated a "revenge" mode and wants a target on Colby's back, but her annoying the tribe is going to prevent her from being able to do anything about it this week. I see Lex/Shii/Kathy alliance voting for Ethan. Colby voting for Ethan and continuing the group that voted out Rich. Besides, Colby can't vote for himself. That leaves Jerri and Ethan, who can't vote for himself either, voting Colby. But have not been too accurate in my picks this season. Anyway, a 4-2 vote to send Ethan packing.   Top

RopesandChains 33 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-09-04, 06:44 PM (EST) 22. "I'm convinced" Thanks to one and all for your excellent input. Colby goes and casts a revenge vote for Jerri.   Top

weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-09-04, 04:48 PM (EST) 14. "Agreed" One of the preview threads (about eyemail I believe) states that Lex has a change in strategy. The only "promotion worthy" flip Lex could have is going against Colby and working the girls. And he knows Colby and Ethan are both his strong competitors from MM when it comes to individual immunity. Lex basically has everyone in his pocket (is keeping the two decision makers close to him: Colby & Kathy) & may realize that this episode. My theory? Kathy tells Lex that Jerri and Shii Ann are gunning for Colby. Knowing this, Lex plays the numbers game and knows that he should vote with the girls. Kathy and Lex agree that Ethan would be next on the boot list, putting Lex in a good spot for winning individual challenges.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-09-04, 05:14 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" See Orange's recent post on Sucks http://pub207.ezboard.com/fsurvivorsucksfrm2.showMessageRange?topicID=17368.topic&start=201&stop=219 EMYDI   Top

SouperStar 156 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-09-04, 05:47 PM (EST) 17. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" I think Colby is a logical boot. Kathy was ready to tell ShiiAnn & Jerri to boot him rather than Rich but didn't because she feared Lex's anger. If Colby is the one who says "Sorry, I blew it," Kathy can be sure of getting Lex (and by default, Ethan) on board. Lex is ready to go as the the guy & 3 girls into a merge and ready to boot Colby & Ethan. ShiiAnn absolutely has no love for "Captain America and his perfect teeth." Jerri, just _might_ have some issues left from Australia. Colby's off to do more razor commercials.....   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-09-04, 05:53 PM (EST) 19. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" I'd say, you've nailed it shakes....awesome job. I'm with you all the way. I can see that Kathy will be the one, in support of the girls, to really push Lex for the Colby boot. Thus, it is Kathy that will be the fatal flaw that leads to the demise of the Mogo's.....I can not believe that these ALLSTARS can't foresee the trouble they are creating for themselves....all very self absorbed IMO. They started self destructing when they gave ole Dicque the boot.   Top

munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 03-09-04, 05:57 PM (EST) 20. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" Varner, in his preseason web reports stated two things that stand out to me...one, being that Ethan throws a huge hissy fit that he won't be proud of, and two, that Rob takes things to a personal level when he "outs" a castmember for some of his/her extracurricular activities with other castmembers. As an aside, is there anyone who doesn't think Varner got all the juicy stuff from Alicia? Really? Devil's advocate, MB could have chosen not to show any of Rob's trash talk about other competitors and Ethan's prima donna hissy could happen this week leading to his boot. Shakes makes a solid case for Colby, that for sure. Of course, because I refuse to believe that anyone on that tribe, except for Colby, and especially Lex or Kathy is soooooo stupid to boot Colby before Shii Ann or Jerri when the game is still based on tribes and a merge not yet in sight, I'm going to vote for Shii Ann. A defiant protest against idiocy and bad strategy. For all-stars, these guys have absolutely no game. I'm still waiting to see the first real strategist emerge. OK, Lex has it in his hands but I fear he's about to throw it all away. Arrrgh! And don't even think about mentioning Rob. The other idiots are gonna hand him this thing despite his horrible game play. What does a smart player do in the first three days? Uh, not hook up with someone for form an obvious power couple. Lucky Rob was on a tribe with a collective IQ less than Richard Hatch. So, I'll go with Colby but I'm not going to like it.   Top

raidersfantom 137 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-09-04, 06:13 PM (EST) 21. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" >Varner, in his preseason web reports >stated two things that stand >out to me...one, being that >Ethan throws a huge hissy >fit that he won't be >proud of, and two, that >Rob takes things to a >personal level when he "outs" >a castmember for some of >his/her extracurricular activities with other >castmembers. > >As an aside, is there anyone >who doesn't think Varner got >all the juicy stuff from >Alicia? Really? I agree completely munson. Where would Varner be getting his info from otherwise? Alicia has to be leaking a bit of this info to Varner, I don't know why, with these so-called iron clad non-disclosures they all sign. Just seems to me though, that SeeBS likes to mislead us a bit, King Neptune challenge comes to mind, where the majority of us all thought it was Dicque vs. Rupe. Who ended up being the challenger? Ethan Leading me to believe that perhaps Ethan's whining about the robfaddah kicking his A.ll S.tar S.urvivor at the IC/RC leads to his major diva/hissy fit. I still think Ethan is the boot this week.   Top

tommiettop 60 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 03-09-04, 10:35 PM (EST) 24. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" >As an aside, is there anyone >who doesn't think Varner got >all the juicy stuff from >Alicia? Really? Just a thought - If it was Alicia, how would she know whether or not MB would edit it in? Conversely, if it doesn't show up in the episode, that doesn't mean it didn't happen or that Alicia didn't tell Varner about it. MB might have edited it out. This seems unlikely, though, given MB's hunger for ratings.   Top

strid333 2928 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-09-04, 09:05 PM (EST) 23. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" Wow, those reasons that you gave are really sound. From the previews and Lex's comments on previous shows, it seems that he will be working on the mutiny (of sorts). I agree with you. Colby is next to go for Mogo Mogo. However, usually when somebody is doing a major mutiny and it hits the previews, it usually means they will win and the other tribe is sent packing. Therefore, Chapera will probably be this week's losing tribe. And I see them sending Alicia home. I'll be voting for her, this week, but with Colby as an alt. Three is the perfect number.   Top

mmm_link 426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 03-10-04, 08:35 AM (EST) 26. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" I thought Ethan beat Rob in the challenge. Rob supposedly beat Colby.   Top

raidersfantom 137 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-10-04, 09:22 AM (EST) 27. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" Technically yes, Rob did lose to Ethan, as Jeff ruled Rob hit the water first.... Rob dominated Ethan in the challenge though, he was the one who initiated the takedown, and Ethan was just lucky to not be ruled the loser. Rob tackled Ethan and ran him hard into the side. This coupled with the "pretty boy" comment that was edited into the RC challenge from Ep4, shows that Robfaddah has something against Ethan.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-10-04, 10:55 AM (EST) 28. "Props to Shakes from the Orange One" Orangeena gave us a shout-out on Sucks. Shakes, see O's question to you -- I hadn't heard that rumor either. Orangeena Registered User Posts: 1643 (3/9/04 9:29 pm) Reply ezSupporter Rob M. and the Overlaps -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A special Orange shout out to all the fabby webbies at Blows. LOVE THAT ALL ORANGE THREAD! Where I can read my whole life story flashing before my eyes! And it's all so well-written! They know more about what I've been up to than I do! What a different a little numeral makes! From S7 to S8! It's like night and day, isn't it? Or apples and oranges! But Shakes, sir, as much as I totally lurved and agreed with EVERYTHING you said in your fantastic thresd, (and the appreciated the link to this one) you had one statement that I had never seen before. That "a previous winner makes the jury or at least the merge." I've never seen that. Where did you get that? You'll never post here. Maybe I should link to there. But I've never seen that and I hope that's true and that could only be ETHAN! *claps* I've never said that "a previous winner makes the merge or jury". I said I HOPED Ethan did, but I honestly don't know. Certainly my spoiler(now in Spec ) "Ethan does well" meant that he lasted longer than anyone could've expected given all the negative/winner spinning/editing going down. But how "well" is "well"? I honestly don't know. JP says, yes, he lasts to have that ROB M. and the OVERLAPS(Jennaloo & Pamper) confrontation, so that's the merge, whenever it is, and it could be awhile from now. Jenna Morasca's heavy dig on Rupert makes it also look like Ethan goes down in a merge/jury situation, and Rupert could be THEE betraying swing vote that sinks him. We also know that Rupert doesn't like to lose. And he doesn't like young, cute, strong, hunky, Burton-esque guys...He likes Tom because he's older than he is and not a threat with the ladies' affections. Rupert likes having his own little harem.Which this time only consists of Jennalu. So this is leading me to SPECULATE that one of the Happy Chapstickys go in a surprise(to us, the spoilers, but not to the viewers. They just assume the two tribes will alternate the wins)But I could be wrong....Rob M. is playing a very strategic game and I just KNOW he's worried about Lex and Ethan uniting with TOM at the merge. That's why he's recruited Rupert and Jenna, the two outcasts, as it were. Very smart move. Because NEITHER of them is likely to hook up with L/E/T. So who's the outside bootee for real over there? Is it Alicia? Boy, are they gonna try to get rid of Ethan! But do they?   Top

true 9689 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-10-04, 07:00 PM (EST) 35. "RE: Props to Shakes from the Orange One" But Shakes, sir, as much as I totally lurved and agreed with EVERYTHING you said in your fantastic thresd, Love how the spelling of thresd has infiltrated another site. While I'm here I'd just like to voice my displeasure at the booting of Colby. The biggest thing that sucks about this game, Survivor, is it rewards the UTR players. BORING! Great analysis as usual, Shakes.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-10-04, 03:01 PM (EST) 29. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" LAST EDITED ON 03-10-04 AT 03:06 PM (EST) Terrific argument shakes, and I agree ... LOL, I like it that you referenced the last time you posted this, and I DO remember it oh so well, back when I was a newbie. Here's your walk down memory lane: For the non-believers: Why the Colbster is definitely gone! by shakes http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=1376&forum=DCForumID2&archive=yes Dear Conspiracy Jim in which shakes eats a most rare dish of crow and makes good on his bet http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=1398&forum=DCForumID2&archive=yes Those were good times. Looking at the archive page I saw a thread started by AyaK in which he says: "As Flying Squirrel said in the vote thread ..." I love it that AyaK used the arguments of his alter-ego to boost the Ayatollah's theories. http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=1396&forum=DCForumID2&archive=yes (linked for you history-lovers) All those not on TV have only themselves to blame ~ Jackson Browne   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 03-10-04, 04:49 PM (EST) 30. "thanks OFG!" ...thanks for the stroll down memory lane, back to S2, the golden age of Survivor spoiling. How fun is it to read a thresd littered with spoiling legends, Conspiracy Jim, the Ayatollah and Sleeve (back when they actually spoiled)....plus, as a bonus, part of my famous flame war with Lizlover, back in the days when flaming was encouraged, before the evil ZTP was put into place. One thing I forgot to mention in my Colby goes thresd back then was the famous "lis kicks butt" quote that was bastardized into "lis kicks butt in challenges" sometime during the spoiling run. If I remember correctly, that had something to do with my Colby pick that week as many of us were waiting every week for Lis to start kicking butt in challenges. For any of the newbie spoilers out there who want to have a little history lesson and see what it was like to spoil in the glory days I reccomend visiting the archives and viewing the S2 thresds....some of the best spoilers ever all gathered in one small community.   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-11-04, 09:19 PM (EST) 39. "Howdy all" IceCat just pointed me to this thread. Fun to see all of you here! OFG, the really "evil" part of that post wasn't just that I referenced flying squirrel to back up my theories (!!), but that I didn't reveal why I knew that "Jesus" wasn't a hoax. shakes, great analysis on the Colby boot -- and yes, we had some good spoiling going on during S2 here. It was nice to actually have the time to spoil... I seem to remember once having some time.... Soylent Green: recycling America, one person at a time.   Top

PelicanPete 140 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-10-04, 05:41 PM (EST) 31. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" Tribal boots are rarely logical; usually there because someone is on the outs and doesn't know it, or they don't do anything about being on the outs. And, from what we've seen with the ich boot- the Mogo Mogo Tribe votes strictly on politics and not by who is the weakest or who doesn't fit in. For all they knew, Rich was the only main provider of fish (Ethan's one fish doesn't count) on the tribe so how logical was it for them to vote him out? They could have kept 5 Mogos around and booted the unpredictable (and Sabogan) Jerri out. It was all behind the scenes politicing and alliances. So this week, it seems that Kathy and Shii Ann are already tight, and they have Jerri in their back pocket. Plus, Lex believes that he has the girls favor so he knows that he can screw over the guys without any realistic recourse. It seems that Lex wouldn't risk a tie (he's already been through 1) or want to double cross the adoring Jerri quite yet. So, it seems logical that either Colby or Ethan go. -PP   Top

Get Bent 293 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-10-04, 05:45 PM (EST) 32. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" PP, and in the promos Lex supposedly has a change of strategy. Since the plan was for Ethan to go, now his strategy has changed, therefore Colby. I am still sticking with my Jerri vote however! I know she is all over the promo's, but it seems MB isn't following all his old rules this season. In some S7 promo's, the person who was most obvious was the one to go (Ryno).   Top

ADKer 143 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-10-04, 06:03 PM (EST) 33. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" I cannot see Colby going this week. If MM boots a stong male, I believe that it will be Ethan as a prior winner rather than Colby. I do not believe the Varner spoiler about a hissy fit by Ethan - it would be too out of character. I wonder if Varner had Colby and Ethan mixed up. I would not characterize Colby's behavior as prima donna like - I would just call it excessive bluntness - but ShiAnn could have characterized him that way. If Shi Ann's observations were filtered through Alicia to Varner, the facts might have gotten mixed up. I think Jerri goes tonight because ShiAnn is protected by Kathy. If Chapera goes to tribal council, I think Alicia goes. Rupert's comments as she left the game were enough for Jenna M. to dislike him without any "mistreatment" of Ethan by Rupert.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-10-04, 06:13 PM (EST) 34. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" LAST EDITED ON 03-10-04 AT 06:36 PM (EST) The thing is, both Varner and Kristin have predictions about Ethan. Although Varner is very close to Alicia, Orangeena has posted that Mitchell is likely to have been Kristin's source, and Mitchell is very close to Amber. Both potential sources are from Chapera and from the merged tribe. Kristin told us that Tom would do a jig and a ding-dong; that had to come from Chapera, and I believe the Ethan stuff comes from Chapera interacting with him. Really, who better than Amber to gloat about it to Mitchell and from there to Kristin? (which leads me to believe Amber is not F2 or she would have zipped the gossip. Maybe. If she was smart. Um, I see my argument has no basis. Oh well). I don't really believe it was filtered over from Mogo-Mogo, and Ethan's dating patterns cannot come back to bite him unless he makes the merge. Because Kristin has had some very accurate information (Tom dancing when Sue left), I do believe Ethan makes the merge. Ergo, Colby is toast. Remember that Jenna named his as the first on the Mogo-Mogo boot list. No wonder he grabbed at getting Ethan. He was hoping for a shield! But it won't work. Edit: Of course everything about Amber or Alicia is pure spec on my part and the Mitchell connection is based on a maybe from Orangeena. But I believe that Kristin has some info that will play out in the simplest explanation of the spoiler: Ethan, Amber, Jenna L. will spend a little time on the same tribe, and Rob M will get his chance to do some full-on baiting. Occam's Razor ... All those not on TV have only themselves to blame ~ Jackson Browne   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-10-04, 09:32 PM (EST) 36. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" ehem... Mitchell, JeffV, Alicia, the NY3, infamous drunk revelries et cetera and so on... end ehem.   Top

mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-11-04, 00:11 AM (EST) 37. "Good arguments for a Colby boot." I'll give credit where credit is due, you present a sound argument for Colby getting the boot. I agree with Krautboy, your spoiling skills are among the best. But, I'm still not ready to give up on Sleek just yet.   Top

ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 03-11-04, 01:11 AM (EST) 38. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" excellent analysis clown. I agree that Colby goes. I know that jerri is safe and ethan? well I think he is safe as well I don’t really give a damn which one of the two goes, as long as it ain’t me."-Sandra Diaz-Twine   Top

Desert Trip 12 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 03-12-04, 01:45 AM (EST) 40. "RE: Why I think the Colbster goes this week" Well done.   Top

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