After watching this past episode, I wonder about whether John made the best decision for himself in the game. In fact, right after it aired, it became a topic of discussion between me and my family members who also watch the show. It seemed like there are two definite sides to it.

1. Force the tie, hope one of the FoaFoa5 draws the bad rock, and then gain the numbers advantage.

Or...

2. Vote off Laura and hope to become a swing vote at some point between the FoaFoas down the line.

Obviously, for those who spoil the show, that knowledge may taint your opinion on whether John's decision was a good or bad move... But let's look at it purely from a strategic standpoint.

Me? I'd probably draw rocks, but it's close.

Assuming Russell didn't spontaneously choose to play his idol (which John doesn't know about), it looks like drawing rocks would be a 3/7 chance of winning the draw... I'd be banking on Russell, Shambo, or Jaison drawing the bad rock (instead of me, Brett, Monica, or Dave). The odds are stacked slightly against you, but the advantages of having the numbers now would be huge.

It's really dependent on what John's situation is with the other Galus. If he's got his Final 2/3 deals locked up, getting down to the Final 5 Galus is great. Draw rocks every time. If he's at the bottom of the totem pole, then he's finishing 5th. But even then, you have a little flexibility with using some of the leftover Foa Foa votes. Who knows if a "Power Trio" alliance is exposed in Galu and you could swing a 4-3 vote later? It seems more natural for an alliance of 5 to split into a 3-2 than a 4-1.

I see the argument for voting with the Foa Foas, but I have trouble with giving the other tribe the upper hand for free. It seems like when an underdog group (like JT & Stephen last season) fights for several weeks for the numbers... And then get the numbers... They generally don't let anyone wriggle back into the mix. And the fact that they already have a potential goat/swing-vote in Shambo would bother me too.

If you were John, how would you have voted this week?

A 2003 IceCat original