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"Alliance Refresher (After Ep4)"
Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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02-20-04, 04:54 PM (EST)
 
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"Alliance Refresher (After Ep4)" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-20-04 AT 06:48 PM (EST)ETA info from E!'s Kristin
-----------------------
We've had another week to see how alliances are coming together and got our first peek at Chapera going to TC. Here are my quasi-revised thoughts on the current state of alliances: Chapera:
RobM and Amber are inseparable. Rob's instant dig at Ethan during RC shows he takes relationship with Amber seriously (Ethan and Amber had fling according to E!).
Big Tom is the third wheel in a RobM/Amber alliance and will probably stick with them as long as they're in the same tribe.
Sue doesn't appear to be any alliance, but from RobC's chat this morning it sounds like she does more around camp than we've seen. So chalk her up for a general tribe alliance.
Alicia's sole vote at TC last night indicates that she would be a potential bootee, so I don't think she's in a good alliance with anyone. We've seen her lying with Romber and washing with Big Tom, and heard Big Tom's compliment of her physique, but I don't think these have a lot of bearing.
 Mogo Mogo:
This tribe got so little face time this week that it's hard to tell what's going on.
Richard seems to be the consistent outsider and Lex's comment about wanting to get rice tells me that Rich is in no alliance with Lex.
Lex seems to be on good terms with Kathy and Shii An, so I'd say they have a loose affiliation. Lex probably wants to keep his options open if they go to TC.
Kathy seems to be getting along with everyone as her strategy and I'd say she has a loose alliance with Lex and Shii An.
Shii An as noted above is probably with Lex and Kathy, but probably tighter with Kathy. I think she's a potential third wheel in a Kathy/Lex alliance.
Colby doesn't seem allied with anyone. He's warmed up to Rich despite homophobic behaviour, but would probably rather take his chances with someone else. I could see him and Lex having a loose alliance with Lex not sticking to it. Saboga:
We haven't seen much of their dynamics the past two weeks other than their shelter debacle.
Rupert was Rudy's buddy and is probably a little isolated. If he can't make himself a hero to the tribe I don't think he'll find a solid alliance partner. He and Ethan might have buddied up a bit to avoid a Jerri/Jenna threat, but I doubt it.
Ethan is probably resigned to his fate as a prior winner. He might have buddied up with Rupert and he might try to buddy up with Jerri, but I don't think he and Jenna will ever align, especially with his criticism of her open box in RC and their past relationship that had Amber overlap (E!).
Jenna and Jerri will probably stick to their alliance, because why not? Jenna did a nice job coaxing Jerri out of her stupor, however, I would guess that Jenna sees Jerri as a weak link and will work to form other loose alliances out of convenience, or may go the Sandra route with an 'anyone but me' approach to TCs. Those are my thoughts. Disagree at will. -BbB
I do more to not work than actual work.
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redbeard103152 466 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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02-23-04, 01:29 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Alliance Refresher (After Ep4)" |
I agree completely BbB. In fact after Chapera loses the IC in this coming episode5 she will be toast. Big Tom will not have to put up with the Hag From Hell anymore.The core alliance in Chapera will be Rob Amber Tom and new member Jenna.
RedBeard
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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
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02-23-04, 01:40 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Alliance Refresher (After Ep4)" |
I believe the word "was" pulling for is a huge clue that miss Sue does not make it too much farther. He certainly wasnt pulling for her to stay in front of him.
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raidersfantom 137 desperate attention whore postings
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02-23-04, 01:57 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Alliance Refresher (After Ep4)" |
If all spoilers are thrown out the window, (according to Jenna M, who I believe wasn't there after day 9 BTW) then why would Sue not align herself with the others eventually. You need a strong 4, but always need a fifth at least in your alliance, as has been proven on every other show except PI.Chapera's 4 have to be Robmer, Tom and Alicia. Sue is now 5, and with two from Saboga going to Chapera after the next RC as has been speculated, her best interests would be to align hereself with the other 4, go as far as she can, and win the IC to get into the final four. My two cents.
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
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02-23-04, 02:28 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Alliance Refresher (After Ep4)" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-23-04 AT 02:30 PM (EST)You need a strong 4, but always need a fifth at least in your alliance, as has been proven on every other show except PI. ...except for Outback, Marquesas and Amazon. Unless you're talking pre-merge original tribes and then absolutely. An alliance of five is too tough to maintain long term. At some point, unless you're a master like Brian, the fourth and fifth realize they are just that and in "new school" Survivor, they won't just sit back and Amber it until they're meekly voted out. Chapera's 4 have to be Robmer, Tom and Alicia. Sue is now 5, and with two from Saboga going to Chapera after the next RC as has been speculated, her best interests would be to align hereself with the other 4, go as far as she can, and win the IC to get into the final four. Again, the "old school" rules no longer apply. Also, you're assuming Soozin has any choice in the matter. She doesn't have many friends on Chapera and Rob told us that no one wants to allign with her anyway. And don't risk the chance she'll seek out something with Richard after merge. If Robtomamber decide they want a fifth they can always bring Jenna or Rupert on board. Cut the annoying Soozin and bring in the newly declawed Jenna who will be much easier to control.
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Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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02-23-04, 02:42 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Alliance Refresher (After Ep4)" |
So let's take the alliances a step further with some wild speculation about how the 'dissolved' tribe integrates with the new tribe. This is all assuming Saboga gets dissolved, so god help me if that doesn't happen.If Rupert joins Mogo Mogo he'll be glommed onto by Lex as an alternate fisherman. Rich's ego is probably big enough that he'll let Rupert head into the water just to see how he does. I speculate that even if Rupert doesn't get fish, the tribe will like his personality, work ethic, and clothing more than they like Richard. Rupert can integrate with Mogo Mogo and may find a pal in Lex. If Rupert goes to Chapera, I think he'll have a problem with the 'clique' that's already in place with Romber and Tom (and Alicia, apparently). But I think Sue will continue to be the big outsider and the next boot choice. If Ethan goes to Mogo Mogo I don't think he'll integrate terribly well. Saboga's challenge track record is lousy, so he won't be seen as an asset. He's a prior winner, so that's a strike against him. He can't fish. I think Ethan's in big trouble at Mogo Mogo. But he's in even bigger trouble at Chapera where Rob hates him and there's no other prior winner to attract votes. If Ethan goes to Chapera I say he's voted out before Sue. If Jenna goes to Mogo Mogo she can probably integrate well with nearly everyone except Rich. I think she'll do just fine there. Same thing if she goes to Chapera. She'll probably join Rob's harem and bring some animosity down on Sue. If Jerri goes to Mogo Mogo I can see some serious tension between her and Colby. I don't think she'd integrate strongly, but probably wouldn't aggravate too many people. She's playing a more 'professional' game this time around and I don't think she'd replace Rich as a primary target. If Jerri goes to Chapera I can see her having tension with Alicia, maybe. I think she and Amber can get along fine, but I don't think Jerri would outright join Rob's harem. I think she'd do fine at Chapera and Sue would remain the logical outsider. So, taking all those scenarios into account, I think the person who'll have the biggest problem is Ethan, followed by Rich and Sue. Jerri, Rupert and Jenna will integrate just fine. -BbB
I do more to not work than actual work.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-23-04, 07:43 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Alliance Refresher (After Ep4)" |
Didn't Jeff Varner once report that after he and Alicia became friends with Jerri that they had a falling out? I'm sure I heard that after the Outback series. Seems Alicia saw that Jerri was a witch afterall.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-24-04, 11:48 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: Alliance Refresher (After Ep4)" |
Nope it was Alicia and Jerri. I don't even remember where I read it. But it was Jeff that said it. Alicia had liked Jerri and finally Alicia saw the side of Jerri that others in the Outback saw and wasn't friendly with her anymore. I wish I could remember where I read it. Maybe they talked about it when they were on Big Brother with Sue and Gervase.
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Thaibeach 872 desperate attention whore postings
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02-25-04, 01:42 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Alliance Refresher (After Ep4)" |
Regardless of whether the survivors are friends, they must recognize the benefit of becoming allies.This is all speculation, so feel free to shoot holes: We're not sure who goes where from Saboga when they lose RC. It appears M-M wins the RC. Now, if this was a fair game, the winners would get the first 2 picks, leaving the other 2 Sabogas for Chapera. Since it's not fair in the least, that may not happen, but in that case, M-M would be idiots not to take Rupert and Ethan, meaning Jerri and JennaL go to Chapera. Either way, 2 Sabogas will end up at Chapera. Chapera would then be Saboga1-Saboga2-Sue-Alicia-Tom-Amber-RobM. As many posters above have said, the strongest alliance there is RobM-Amber and seemingly Tom. Being ASSes and having done all this before, isn't it possible that, if Chapera loses IC, the four "outsiders" (whichever Sabogas happen to join Alicia and Sue) might have the counting ability and intelligence to band together and boot one of Tom, RobM or Amber? (Pleasepleaseplease let it be RobM.) Alicia and Sue must realize that they are outsiders in the RAT alliance and might have better chances with the 2 ex-Sabogas. (Even if they intend to flip again later on.) RobM wants to be king of the hill, and if Rupert or Ethan come over, he will be threatened, and won't welcome them into his RAT alliance. His ego is too big. He dislikes Ethan anyway, b/c he got to Amber first  RobM going would be a delicious shocker. It'd be almost as much fun as in Marquesas when the underdogs booted Nurse John. OK, more fun - Rob is several orders of magnitude more irritating than John ever was. Fire away, y'all. 
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raidersfantom 137 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-04, 09:53 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: Alliance Refresher (After Ep4)" |
>LAST EDITED ON 02-23-04
>AT 02:30 PM (EST)
>
>You need a strong 4, but
>always need a fifth at
>least in your alliance, as
>has been proven on every
>other show except PI.
>
>...except for Outback, Marquesas and Amazon.
> Unless you're talking pre-merge
>original tribes and then absolutely.
In the Outback there was an alliance of five Jerri, Amber, Colby, Keith and Tina. They eventually cut off one of two of their own (Jerri first then Amber) but they had an alliance of five for two shows, Jeff being eliminated first then Alicia.
Marquesas there was a strong four, but an actual six (John, Tammy, General, Zoe, Paschal, Neleh) when the Robfaddah was eliminated after the merge. But here's my rule of five - Paschal, Kathy, Neleh, Vecepia and Sean, who voted John out. They eliminated all of the strong four alliance at some point.
Amazon the rule of five applies as well - Alex, jenna, Heidi, Rob C. and Deena were the first five that were responsible for both Roger and Dave getting the axe, it just ended up they turned on each other sooner than expected IMO.
Most "rule of five" alliances end up being tribal necessity after merges, as most ended up being five and five at the merge. It all depends on when they all start to turn on each other, because they do have to at some point.
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-04, 11:16 AM (EST)
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15. "Don't forget the "old game" alliances" |
BbB, that's a GREAT analysis. I did want to throw this back into the mix, the fact that we have some pregame alliances:S1 - Rich (MM), Sue (Ch) Sue would have no reason to think that Rich wouldn't align with her again, and Rich needs the help. Jenna was Pagonged. Even though they were on the same season, she doesn't have the same game playing history with either Rich or Sue. S2 - Alicia (Ch), Jerri (Sa), Amber (Ch) Alicia and Amber are already together, even though Alicia is on the outside because of Amber's love connection. Also, as previously stated, Alicia and Jerri became friends outside the game. Jerri and Amber were friends in their game, but the general viewing public viewed Amber as just Jerri's pawn during the game. If Jerri can also bring Jenna into their alliance, they might have a strong fighting chance with Jerri/Jenna/Alicia/Amber/Rob Colby really isn't part of this crowd. He'll be perceived as an almost winner (like Rob C was), and be more of a threat. S3 - Ethan (Sa), Lex (MM), Tom (Ch) Ethan needs to get back with his Boron boys. Lex has his Mogo mates where he wants them. Tom is not out of sorts with his Chapera chaps (except Sue), but he really is the 4th wheel of that 5-some. Tom and Ethan really need to get back w/Lex in order to really have a shot of surviving. If Lex can get Shii and Kathy to ally with Ethan and Tom, then there's a fighting fivesome. Kathy and Shii would have to know, though, that if they were to go along with that, they would be 4th and 5th wheels. Kathy and Shii should try to bring Colby in order to at least keep some sort of balance of power. S4 - Kathy and Rob Kathy never voted against Rob but threw a vote at Zoe when Rob was booted. Rob has no reason to think Kathy would betray her word, but neither of them really has a reason to rejoin forces. They have their own game working for them on ASS, they don't have much more game history apart from 1 pre-merge night conversation, and they don't really have a reason to come back together. S5 - Shii's the only one left... and the only one playing from her season! S6 - Amazon Rob and Jenna M - may they rest in peace S7 - Rupert, on his own. He could try to get in with Shii, but he's really an outsider. His provider skills aren't even showing to be valuable, especially after screwing up the shelter. The most powerful pre-game alliance left is the Boron boys. If they make it to the real merge, they could be powerful. Or they could also be seen as a powerful threat, and then they take Ethan out first (prior winner status).
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Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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02-24-04, 12:21 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Don't forget the "old game" alliances" |
Hmmm...some compelling stuff you've come up with.If Lex can get Shii and Kathy to ally with Ethan and Tom, then there's a fighting fivesome. Kathy and Shii would have to know, though, that if they were to go along with that, they would be 4th and 5th wheels. Kathy and Shii should try to bring Colby in order to at least keep some sort of balance of power. Now THAT sounds like an interesting scenario. What I would propose as an alternate to Colby joining the fivesome is that Rupert join up. He likes the ladies and I think Kathy can win his trust if he winds up with Mogo Mogo for any period of time, as especially if he can catch fish. Ethan is a weak link in this fivesome because I think JennaL can rally five easy votes against him as a prior winner (JennaL, Rob, Alicia, Amber, Jerri). -BbB
I do more to not work than actual work.
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raidersfantom 137 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-04, 12:34 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Don't forget the "old game" alliances" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-24-04 AT 12:43 PM (EST)That's all fine and well, but I do have something to add as well. S1 - Rich, Sue and Jenna
Rich and Sue: we've seen some real animosity between the two at RC and IC "Rich, you have no bone to give me" comes to mind. Jenna is an outsider, but she may be able to get by on the Sandra strategy after swap/merge, the extra vote needed to get rid of a former winner or threat. S2 - Amber, Jerri, Colby, Alicia
Amber and Jerri - Same alliance as in the Outback, but, we know that Amber wants to ride some pretty powerful coattails, and at this point, it looks like jerri has no sway anywhere, especially if there is the rumoured swap on the next episode.
Colby and Amber - Could Amber desert her current hutmate the Robfaddah for former hutmate the Colbster? Only if Colby has a strong alliance with him from Mogo Mogo, which we haven't seen yet. I mean, all the guys and gals in Mogo Mogo seem to have nighttime cuddle partners (Kathy/Shii Ann, Lex/Richard  ) and Colbsy was shown sleeping by his lonesome on the beach.
Colby and Jerri - Nuff said
Alicia and Jerri - Maybe, because of supposed outside friendships, but, Jerri just can't be seen as a powerful ally because of her mouth, like Alicia. two big mouthed females in an alliance? Instant elimination.
Alicia and Amber - This alliance is already in place, because of the Chapera tribe's alliance. My whole thought is that Chapera is four, with Robmer, Tom and Alicia, Sue as the extra vote at the merge. Alicia is an easy vote for the other three in the final four, or earlier. She is a physical threat to Robmer, and a strong woman to Tom.
Alicia and Colby - I have no idea how this would work, other than the whole threat thing, physical that is. Just can't see these two being friends on the outside, "close" friends that is. New York girl and Texas boy? S3 - Tom, Ethan, Lex
Tom and Lex - I see much respect between the two, but Lex voted against Tom in Africa, wouldn't it be sweet revenge if Tom could cast the deciding vote against Lex this time around?
Ethan and Tom - Ditto to the above
Lex and Ethan - Interesting alliance, but Lex's tribe is so scattered, and we haven't seen them at TC yet, as they haven't "lost" a challenge yet, although Mogo Mogo haven't "won" a challenge yet either, so no way in really seeing who Lex has any outside alliances (need to touch on that whole thing later) so maybe they can form an alliance, as Lex could use Ethan's former winner status as a plus in a final two vote. S4 - Robfaddah and Kathy
Interesting again here. Kathy is very trustworthy it seems, and quite intense/annoying at times. Rob is...well he's Boston Rob. Very strong a la Colby, so he could carry Kathy, and rely on her vote, and they both could hope the other annoys the other jury members enough to sway the vote their own way. S5 - Shii Ann
If she has any chance, we haven't seen yet. Although she did say "what fun would it be if the King was gone the first day?" S7 - Rupert
He has to have seen the master at work, not Fairplay, but Sandra. Just give that extra vote when needed, fly low, provide, and don't start an alliance, but join one, then ride it to the end. Let the schemers scheme, and just keep feeding people. Nice supposition to see old alliances renewed, but, I think new tribal alliances are stronger. Haven't seen any real strategy in Mogo Mogo (aside from being aloof, naked, or both) Saboga has been nothing but vengeance it seems and Chapera looks like one of those strong tribes that gets a come uppance at some point, yet has at least two in the final four, as has been seen in previous seasons with all the strong tribes.
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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02-27-04, 12:16 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Don't forget the "old game" alliances for ep6" |
This whole alliance thing is really worth some more discussion now that we know what the new tribes look likeS1 - Sue (Ch), Jenna(Ch) Sue is so p1ssed now that she's probably in a Ghandia state of mind (and with more right than Ghandia did), and not worth much in an alliance. With that aside, I still don't see these two aligning together. Jenna needs it, but she's really more alone right now than ever. She's not tight w/Rupert, and she doesn't have any game experience with anyone else on Chapera. S2 - Alicia (Ch), Amber (Ch), Jerri (MM), Colby (MM) Alicia and Amber - tight, not going anywhere Jerri and Colby - on the surface, they are glad to be together. However, Jerri has flat out said that she doesn't want to get screwed by Colby again. Jerri does seem to be glad to be with Kathy. They have a good bond, and Kathy has thought through having Colby calling the shots in the tribe. S3 - Ethan (MM), Lex (MM), Tom (Ch) Was Lex secretly doing the happy dance when they decided to pick Ethan? And was he quick to save his friend as soon as Colby wanted to go for Rich? Whoa!! Ethan and Lex can rule this tribe, and this time Lex doesn't have to do the dirty work. Colby will do it all for them! He'll do it long enough to get to the merge, pick up Tom, and ride the game to F3. The remaining prior seasons weren't really impacted too much by the "dissolved" status. Rupert is still kind of alone. He may try to do the provider thing again, but he has no real alliances. Character - yes; ultimate survivor - no. However, he has proved that he can "beat Richard Hatch," so now we can let that whole silly thing from the S7 finale thing rest. Yes, Rupert beat Richard, but when you are cut at 5th out, what exactly is that saying?
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Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings
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02-25-04, 12:46 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Alliance Refresher (After Ep4)" |
Commentary on each player from the Early Show website:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/02/24/earlyshow/series/survivor/main601996.shtmlTRIBE ANALYSIS: SABOGA Rupert: He has stabilized his position by once again embracing his role as provider and apologizing profusely to the group. His major screw-up as a player has lit a fire under him and it appears that he gets a chance for redemption next week and I can’t imagine he wouldn’t take advantage of it. Jerri: I really can’t believe these people. I know it’s bad, but you have only been out there 12 friggin' days. If she came this close to breaking down mentally so soon, it is only going to get worse as the game progresses. She was also a complete jerk to Rupert who admitted he failed and tried to make amends. The b**** might be back and we all know how far that got her last time. Jenna L: Was she even in this episode? I have to assume that she is still aligned with Jerri, which is becoming a dicier proposition by the day. Ethan: He was also quiet this week. If they indeed merge, the target on his back because of his winner status is only going to grow bigger because Chapera no doubt wants to start taking revenge on winners, particularly Rob M. who hates “pretty boy” Zohn. TRIBE ANALYSIS: MOGO MOGO Richard: His ability to bring back tons of meat and his winner status could allow him to survive for a long time if there is indeed a merge. Still, he should pray that he isn’t on Lex’s tribe after the merge because it appears that Mr. Paranoid has it out for my favorite survivor. Colby: Besides that smile at the immunity challenge, he was almost non-existent in this episode. I keep repeating it, but the editors don’t shower attention and screen time on those who aren’t long for the game. He will probably be gone before Richard. Lex: Lex still has Shii Ann and Kathy to rely on, but his bouts of paranoia and hatred could be making a comeback if he continues to obsess about Hatch. He needs to stay close to Kathy. Kathy: She didn’t really play a big role in this episode, but the Jenna episode further established her as a mother figure, which is a useful asset up to a point. Shii Ann: Will she once again get screwed by a merge scenario? Probably not, but one can dream… TRIBE ANALYSIS: CHAPERA Rob M. & Amber: They have tasted their first blood and it was apparently refreshing as they overthrew a big threat and kept Alicia and Susan at bay. They have the most to lose in a merge because if they are separated, others might see a chance to send the love birds home, if only for laughs. Tom: He is likeable and strong and that is an awesome combination. Plus, the others can’t understand a word he says. Alicia: Apparently, the others want her to go before Susan, which is mildly surprising. She saved herself for the time being, but that victory could be short-lived because Sue and her are now in the minority. A tribal switch would be great for her. Susan: Remember my theory about editing as she still hasn’t gotten that much screen time. Her only hope might be to realign with one Richard Hatch, which just proves how desperate her situation is. Predictions for Next Week: The preview at CBS.com site makes it seem like the merge is tied to the reward challenge, so maybe the third-place finisher will go bye-bye. This puts everything up for grabs and any prediction would only be a guess. Still, I think Susan and Ethan are particularly vulnerable, especially if a merge comes. ----------------------------
I do more to not work than actual work.
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raidersfantom 137 desperate attention whore postings
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02-25-04, 01:53 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Alliance Refresher (After Ep4)" |
In regards to Alicia before Sue over at Chapera.Sue is a better swimmer than Alicia it seems, and also looks like she does a lot of cooking. She may be grating, but she also is a challenge asset, Alicia not as much. The other thing too, is that Sue voted along with everybody when they got rid of Rob C. Meaning she has to be in the inner circle of the tribe. The vote against Alicia may have been her wak up call. She now knows that she was targeted before Sue, and she better stick with the Chapera alliance, instead of thinking about venturing out at the merge.
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