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PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
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"EP5 Boot Speculation"
Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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02-18-04, 09:36 PM (EST)
 
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"EP5 Boot Speculation" |
It appears that EP5 will begin with a merge. After the dust settles and the survivors realize they’ve been “bamboozled”, the two remaining tribes of seven will consist of reshuffled contestants.Regardless of the mechanism used to shuffle the tribes, a new tribal dynamic will result, but the basic needs of the new tribes will remain the same. They will still need food, shelter, fire, and to win challenges…and an alliance or two in case they don’t. PROVIDERS: There’s a good chance two tribes will get rice in EP4, which probably means each of the two merged tribes will have rice in EP5…but fish will still be valued for protein. Rupert and Richard will probably continue to be recognized as providers…unless they both end up on the same tribe, in which case Richard may be in trouble. CHALLENGE WORK HORSES: The need to win challenges, and the traditionally physical nature of team challenges, will make the remaining men valuable for physical challenges. All those remaining can contribute some combination of strength, speed, agility and stamina. Rob, Tom, Lex, Colby, and Ethan will be considered assets to the tribe early on…not until the tribes get a bit closer to the final merge will they be considered individual challenge threats. Ethan, Lex and Tom may also have an opportunity to restablish the alliance they had in Africa...
ALLIANCE PARTNERS:
While we don’t yet know the make-up of the new tribes, certain contestants have more alliance options than others.
Jerri and Jenna L. (Rupert)
Jerri and Jenna L. seem to be allied, but if Jenna ends up on the other tribe, Jerri would quickly latch on to Amber or Colby.
Alicia and Amber (Rob)
Amber is under Rob’s wing, with Alicia standing guard. If Amber gets seperated by the merge, she would quickly latch on to Jerri or Colby as needed...
Shii Ann and Kathy (Lex)
Kathy and Shii Ann seem tight with Lex, but once again if separated, Kathy would quickly reunite with her old buddy Rob.
Sue
Sue seems like the outcast at this point. Her only chance is to reunite with her old alliance partner Richard...if they end up on the same tribe.
SPOILING THE SPOILERS:
Snewser and Varner seem to agree, in general terms, that the most likely to be voted out over the next several episodes are Richard, Ethan, Colby, Jerri and Sue. These appear to be the players who have become most isolated from the rest of the tribe... Based on the analysis above, the two women would probably be considered less valuable to their tribes at this stage of the game. Added to that, we have a general consensus that Sleek28 will be proven wrong in EP5. His recent admission of hoax seems to confirm it. Since he predicted Jerri to go in EP5, we can assume he is wrong and therefore Jerri is safe in EP5. That leaves Sue as the primary boot candidate based on what we know at this time… 
Krautboy
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-18-04, 10:15 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: EP5 Boot Speculation" |
In the pregame interviews that they filmed for each of the all stars one thing sticks out in my mind. When the woman asked Lex who of all the people that might be appearing on all stars that he trusted, Lex said the list was short. She asked him to elaborate and he said, ok, there is really only one person I trust completely, but it's just between you and me. Then he revealed that he would trust Big Tom.I can see that. But how does that play out if they get on the same tribe? Is Big Tom really any more trustworthy then the others, or does he just hide his lies and deceit behind a bumpkin facade? Sleek28 now is obsolete since he admitted to being a hoax. So hopefully nobody will keep bringing that up. Originally we had the Patagonia spoiler, and then the next group was sent to Mexico. We learned that the Mexico group got the worse end of the deal. I agree that Sue looks vulnerable in a merge to two tribes. Rich knows how she is, and so do all the others. But I think Jenna Lewis looks vulnerable too, she isn't all that helpful in challenges, and if she ends up on same tribe as Ethan, you can bet he will share her feelings of eliminating the winners with whatever other winners that end up on his tribe. 
Surgeon General G.A.W.K.U.R's of OT
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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02-19-04, 09:06 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: EP5 Boot Speculation" |
> Specifically with Varner the
>question has to be asked
>whether any of his "insight"
>was derive from the sleek
>lies and therefore completely tainted.
> Anyone recall the timing
>of when these reports came
>out as it seemed they
>overlaped some and since several
>of the "facts" appeared to
>cooberate each other I personally
>am unclear what came first... ICB, Markopolo has the original posting dates listed on his "STS" chart...
http://www.londyscreations.com/survivornetwork/sts.asp According to the dates on that chart Varner's original comments about each survivor came out on Jan. 20, the day BEFORE Sleek's...maybe Marko can confirm this for us.
Krautboy
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Get Bent 293 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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02-19-04, 01:11 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: EP5 Boot Speculation" |
Ignoring the spoilers for now, I also think Amber is vulnerable. Since her tribe is aware of the VERY close and obvious alliance of her and Rob M, then others will be after the reshuffle. Therefore, she may be a target because she isn't that strong, and it would be of help to break up an obvious alliance of two right away.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-19-04, 07:51 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: EP5 Boot Speculation" |
Excellent summation of merge dynamics KB, well done! I agree with your logic. I still feel as though the previous winners would be the first likely targets. Then I feel that Colby and Sue would be targeted, Sue first perhaps due to her abrasive personality and her isolating herself from the group. I think if Amber flies under the radar or decides to ride another more stronger players coattails she may be okay. Once she and Robfadda are separated I think she won't be an immediate threat, nor will he for that matter. I question how strong Tom and Alicia's loyalties are to their original Chapera tribe members. Of Jerri and Jenna L., I think that Jenna would likely be first as she's been shown to flounder in immunities, and so bossy to other tribe members. If Jerri continues to try and keep her mouth shut and tries to be compassionate towards others she may get farther in this game.Out of all the bonds formed on the tribes thus far, I think that Romber(Rob M/Amber), Lex/Cathy/ShiiAnn, Jenna L/Jerri are the strongest so far. Tom, Alicia, and Rupert have looser bonds. As you've stated, it's all going to be determined on their present and previous loyalties. Who they allign with post merge will be critical. But having previous as well as present loyalties certainly gives them more options, can't wait to see how it all plays out! 
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greg2557 166 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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02-19-04, 09:34 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: EP5 Boot Speculation" |
Thanks Krautboy, very nice summation. I hope sleek is history.
I can't wait to see how new and previous alliances work out.
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IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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02-19-04, 10:30 PM (EST)
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16. "Richard" |
I agree with BDE$$ that Richard would make a good next bootee. Especially when he was carrying on about how he is necessary to the tribe. But unfortunately when I try to figure the boots out logically I am always wrong. I have had to rely on SNN and TDT in the past for clues. I never believed Sleek from Day one but then I never believed Jenna and Matt were F2. My feeling is that MB knows how people feel about Amber and she is the new Darrah for this season. Someone less UTR like Tom or Kathy may win. I wonder if Richard ends up on a tribe with Rupert and that leads to Rupert's comment that he knew he could beat Hatch. Maybe somehow they end up 7 and 7 next episode?
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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02-19-04, 10:52 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: EP5 Boot Speculation" |
Forget Sleek; he/she was out of the equation from the minute he/she posted which were boots everyone has been talking about anyway.If we are down to 14 players but it is reported the merger happens at 10, then we may end up seeing a reshuffling of players prior to one big merger. If that is the case, this is a whole new can of worms and we can't even really know who is safe and who isn't. If they are reorganized into two tribes prior to the real merger, the alliances as we know now are potentially gone and OLD alliances and friendships could come into play. So with that, my "speculation" is purely on who the obvious target candidates are: 1. Past Winners - The gleam in people's eyes when they saw Tina was booted off??? Priceless!! Richard and Ethan are my prime candidates for the boot. Ethan can fare better though because he has friendships with the likes of Lex and Tom and I imagine a few more (especially more than Richard) Richard had isolated himself as the top of the crop so the coup of his going down is a powerful one. Remember one thing, Richard on another tribe may not be faring so well. Jenna L. would have had his naked butt on a silver platter and Rob C. couldn't wait to boot Hatch. MB did well to put Hatch on a tribe with a more even keel in thier makeup. It is also quite obvious that Sue and Jenna from S1 have no warm feelings towards him either. If Richard ends up with a tribe that has any food provider on it and a mood of get the winners, he is gone. Aside from Colby and SA's admiriation, we know Lex can't stand him and I doubt Kathy feels positive towards him. 2. Irritants or Sick - The only other people would be those who are so disgustingly obnoxious/cocky or ill; there are quite a few of those people. Richard, Alicia, Sue, Rob M. are the top IMO for the overbearing ones with Rupert, Lex, Kathy, Tom and Jenna L. lagging a bit behind. I don't see anyone so sick to get a mercy boot so I'm going to stick with who is just someone that will grate on nerves. Personal opinion as of right now (which after tonight I will post any changes I saw in the editing) SOLELY based on what may be new temporary tribal dynamics and what the general vibe is in ASS land that past winners need to go and "this is our playing field now" is that Richard is the most vulnerable. 
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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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02-19-04, 11:14 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: EP5 Boot Speculation" |
I just keep thinking that will all the editing they are doing on Jerri that she just might be the one to quit if there is still one more. I think that she makes more sense than anyone else. I just can not believe as close of friend as JP and Colby are they he would quit. Also some speculation is that Jenna L and Rupert go to one tribe and Jerry and Ian to another. Well if Sue is next to go that would mean Chapera would lose again and put that tribe behind by one. Being behind by one and then more rain and more crapola might just put Jerri over the edge.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-19-04, 11:22 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: EP5 Boot Speculation" |
VS, I concur the "vote off the past winners first" m.o. is still in the back of many minds -- certainly Jenna's; also Lex observed that Tina's boot set this as the tone of the game, and I didn't sense he was averse to that, so I don't think he'll renew an alliance with Ethan.Responding to Bdemoney -- other than for strategic/alliance reasons, we did speculate early on that Rich could be voted out in proximity to Tina, Rudy, and Rob, because Snewser had a cryptic message suggesting he went to Argentina, while others went to Mexico -- meaning perhaps MB shuttled the first four boots off to the same location. However, Rich was not seen in Patagonia with the other three, so that connection is not airtight. 
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robindobindoodledoo 69 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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02-23-04, 10:42 PM (EST)
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46. "RE: EP5 Boot Speculation" |
& we all know what a loner (supremist) King Rich is. It stands to reason that he wasn't "SEEN" with the others.
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Thistlethorn 115 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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02-20-04, 11:50 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: EP5 Boot Speculation" |
Agreed. Especially after the confessional from Lex.
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tinybubs 547 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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02-19-04, 11:38 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: EP5 Boot Speculation" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-19-04 AT 11:47 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 02-19-04 AT 11:46 PM (EST) It's been assumed that if one tribe is split Saboga is because its the smallest. Maybe that is the wrong assumption, I like the idea of a competition determining which tribe is split, it puts in the random factor of the split not being predetermined and that the tribes have to compete to stay together. I think it would make the show more interesting and unpredictable. By disolving one tribe as opposed to a random rearrangement to create two tribe, the relationships that have been built up remain intact and forces the split tribe members to adapt, this keeps 2/3 of the existing relationships intact and continues those story lines they've spent 4 shows developing.
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curtisknewyork 14 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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02-19-04, 11:54 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: EP5 Boot Speculation" |
>SPOILING THE SPOILERS:
>
>Snewser and Varner seem to agree,
>in general terms, that the
>most likely to be voted
>out over the next several
>episodes are Richard, Ethan, Colby,
>Jerri and Sue. These appear
>to be the players who
>have become most isolated from
>the rest of the tribe... A direct quote from sleek's list:
"Jerri-- Swap time- Jerri is the obvious boot in her new living environment- she is one of the very few that leaves with class- she pretty much knows she is going home-nothing too exciting with her
Sue-- Sue thinks she is in a position of power, she is not however Lex and Shi Ann lead to her dismissal
Ethan-- Ethan acts like a jackass pretty much the whole time he is there- he complains alot, on camera and off- he feels that the set up put him in a tough situation- he knows he is going as well- he threatens to quit the show but does not- voted out easily (he really is a pansy) He also talks alot about how the switch put him in a group of people he does not know that well- i dont know if in the end they focus on that
Richard-- Richard loses the most respect of any of the former survivors- his strategy seemed very odd- he wanted to immediately try and minimize his S1 success by acting bizarre- he and Kathy have a huge blowup and the rest join in to vote Richard out- This is the episode where Jeff yells at many of the contestants and they show some of this in this episode- Rich leaves with Rupert calling him "pathetic shell of the survivor 1 champion"
Colby-- this is really where the backstabbing gets bad- Jenna Lewis turns her back on her "new" alliance that includes Lex, Cathy, Shi-ann and Rupert- To me Colby seemed like the life of the party on the outback- he really does not do a whole lot on this- He is not the leader, purposely, but his alliance building was not that strong- he has the whole "marked man" complex and is not surprised that someone has turned their back on him- he exits gracefully
merge time" Hmm...so basically they copied Sleek, player for player? That's a great way to show he's phony. I can't get over the fact that people will find any reason whatsoever to convince themselves that sleek's list is BS.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-20-04, 11:00 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: EP5 Boot Speculation" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-20-04 AT 11:02 AM (EST)I was thinking the same thing last night, badger -- Sleek28 notwithstanding. Jerri's gotten fairly consistent face time in each episode, and it started out very positive but it's been showing cracks in the last two. She's not handling her environment well. And OFG theory would work for her going next. I have a hard time picking anyone from Mogo Mogo as the next boot because I can't really get a handle on that tribe. It's like we've seen everyone tiptoeing around each other, but we don't really know what the dynamics are. Saboga and Chapera have been much more fully shaded in terms of tribal dynamics. Then again, assuming a reshuffling of all tribe members next week, I guess an original Mogo Mogo could go next. Rich is the only Mogo who's been remotely set up to be booted soon, imo. And there was Lex's comment about the rice and Richard's value.
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Rebel Crown 1413 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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02-23-04, 03:53 PM (EST)
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42. "Confessional count" |
Here's some rough numbers for you, Krautboy. They may not be exact, but useful enough to see some trends. Survivor-total confessionals (breakdown of episodes 1-4) Rob M.- 17 (8,1,3,5)
Rupert- 17 (5,4,5,3)
JennaL.- 10 (3,6,0,1)
Jerri- 13 (2,3,4,4)
Tom- 11 (4,1,2,4)
Alicia- 10 (4,1,2,3)
Rich- 10 (3,3,3,1)
Ethan- 9 (1,4,3,1)
Lex- 9 (2,3,2,2)
Colby- 7 (2,3,2,0)
ShiiAnn- 6 (2,1,2,1)
Kathy- 5 (1,1,2,1)
Sue- 3 (2,0,1,0)
Amber- 3 (1,0,1,1) OUT-
Tina- 2 (2)
Rudy- 3 (2,1)
JennaM.- 5 (1,1,3)
Rob C.- 12 (4,2,1,5)
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-20-04, 01:52 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Foreshadowing..." |
With the bragging that Mogo Mogo did about Richard and his fishing. It makes you wonder if Chapera has to pick a player because of the twist, they may pick Rich if they are not getting any fish. They need a fish provider.
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I_Got_Nutn 897 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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02-20-04, 11:00 AM (EST)
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26. "Dissenting Vote" |
I am not convinced the episode begins with a merge.We see all of Saboga and Chapera working on their rafts ala S4 E2
Challenge: Raft RescueLocation: Challenge Beach Description: The tribes receive two identical piles of materials consisting of bamboo poles and rope from which they must construct a raft to paddle. Along the way, they must unclip floating supply boxes and race back to a floating dock. The first tribe to successfully gather the supply crates and race back to the dock wins. No extra or missing members. We also see the tribes arriving intact for RC (no II with Saboga) from land, shoes on, clothes dry. If they stick with the original Raft Rescue challenge, the tribes had to row the raft to the Challenge Beach. That would make Raft Rescue the IC. Since we see both tribes intact in relation to both challenges, I am doubting the 2 tribe merge.
  Yeah, It's a JSlice
Majority Whip
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thursat8 1 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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02-20-04, 11:03 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: EP5 Boot Speculation" |
Where/when did sleek admit to the hoax? threads everywhere suggested it, but when did he own up to it?
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ADKer 143 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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02-25-04, 01:09 PM (EST)
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75. "RE: EP5 Boot Speculation" |
I agree that the moderator's reaction is odd. If a major, meritorious lawsuit was threatened, the moderator might want to discredit the leaked information, or might have agreed to try to discredit it in order to avoid being sued. Still, I do hope that sleek was just a hoax.
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Get Bent 293 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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02-24-04, 00:11 AM (EST)
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47. "RE: Jerri definitely NOT next?" |
But she would know it is not her, which would show the list is wrong. Don't know about the MB comment however. It does seem very strange that she said basically she does not go. I thought that was not allowed by contract. Something is fishy.
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TeamJoisey 3558 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
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02-24-04, 05:30 PM (EST)
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52. "RE: Jerri definitely NOT next?" |
Let me float this idea.These are the all-stars, they know each other, and they talk to each other after they return from the islands even though they are not supposed to communicate. Perhaps Jenna doesn't know the entire boot list, but she might know the next book if the identity was somehow notable... King Richard, for instance. I bet they ALL know when Dicque went home. 
These reality show contestants need a reality check!
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-24-04, 04:40 PM (EST)
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50. "The Saboga alliance factor" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-24-04 AT 05:29 PM (EST)Flowerpower's thread on Musical Tribes got me wondering...(warning - long post ahead  ) The merge into one tribe usually comes following the first six boots. The ASSes don't know what's going to happen in this game, but absent any additional info they would be thinking ahead that the merge will probably go down as usual. So this week each of the two reconstituted tribes will have to think about who they can cut at the next two TC's before a possible merge into one tribe with 12 people left. We have pretty solid evidence that Jenna goes to Chapera and Ethan goes to MogoMogo. (I think that Rupert goes to MogoMogo and Jerri goes to Chapera, but that doesn't really matter for my purposes here.) Chapera right now has a very solid alliance of Rob/Amber/Tom, with a pretty solid fourth in Alicia. If they want to dominate after a merge they'll need to work with at least three more people. Jenna going to Chapera with either Rupert or Jerri gives them an alliance of three to hook up with -- whichever of Jerri or Rupert goes to MogoMogo would be guaranteed as a third alliance partner, as Jenna and J/R fight to save their lives in their new tribe. So the first time new Chapera goes to TC, Susan, who was probably next on old Chapera's chopping block, is still the most expendable (her annoyance factor is just an added plus). If Chapera can escape the following TC and then there is a merge, their 4+3 configuration will dominate. Mogo Mogo -- we don't really know what's going on there since they haven't had to go to TC yet. There's a loose affiliation between Lex, Kathy, and Shii Ann; we know Lex is not that interested in keeping Rich around. Colby seems to be sort of on his own, though he has a semi-bond with Lex. Whichever of Rupert and Jerri goes to Mogo could feel out the situation and start making inroads by presenting a post-merge alliance that includes Jenna and Rupert/Jerri. This would probably put Ethan, who has nothing to offer, and Richard, who is obnoxious, as frontrunners for the next boot (both handily have the prior winner stigma as well). So again the thought would be that if new Mogo Mogo can escape a second TC *their* 4+3 configuration would dominate after the merge. Okay, so not that all my rambling presents anything really new -- BUT it does seem that Jerri *should* be very safe this week no matter which tribe she is on, if the tribes are anticipating a merge into one tribe at the usual time -- and that if Chapera goes to TC next, Sue should be toast, whether Jerri is there or not. Jerri, Jenna and Rupert just have to play up their alliance as a valuable post-merge commodity to their respective new tribes.
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TeamJoisey 3558 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
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02-24-04, 05:37 PM (EST)
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53. "Jerri and Chapera" |
The buffoon tribe just voted out the person they trusted the least, based on watching him play previously. They were all expecting that sooner or later he would try to stab them in the back.The Chaperas also saw Jerri play. And while Sue may be the "Hayg fum Heyll", she is probably stronger or equal competitor in the challenges, and a lot less dangerous. I think Jerri is very much in danger if you put her in a camp with Ramba, Alicia and BigTom.
These reality show contestants need a reality check!
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-24-04, 06:00 PM (EST)
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54. "RE: Jerri and Chapera" |
The Chaperas also saw Jerri play. And while Sue may be the "Hayg fum Heyll", she is probably stronger or equal competitor in the challenges, and a lot less dangerous.Was Jerri really dangerous in S2 though? Yeah she instigated the Ogakor alliance but it ultimately backfired on her. I can't imagine Robfather would be that nervous about her as a strategist. Robfather should at least consider that the J/J/R alliance could be useful after a merge, which might be coming in as soon as six days. And Sue wasn't much help in the blindfold challenge, while Jerri directed her team to victory. I do think that after Sue went, Jerri would be in danger on Chapera, more or less by default.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-25-04, 11:57 AM (EST)
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71. "RE: The Saboga alliance factor" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-25-04 AT 12:31 PM (EST)You're right of course, and I don't expect the merge to happen until there are 10 players left. However, it would be natural for them to prepare for the earlier contingency since they have no idea what's going to happen (and MB said they were all paranoid). It's really up to Jenna, Jerri and Rupert to make a strong case to their new tribes to keep them around. Their 3-way alliance is something they could play up -- if there is a merge after 6 are gone, their votes would be valuable against the other tribe (on the other hand they are still a minority of three so they wouldn't have *too* much power). Whether Chapera or Mogo would buy into that, well...who knows. ETA: Thinking about it more -- Jenna and Jerri would be likely to try this tactic at Chapera, but I don't think Rupert will use it at Mogo. J/J is the tighter alliance, plus they are in more imminent danger as expendable. The promos indicate that Rupert is going to do his "provider" routine in a attempt to ingratiate himself at Mogo; that's apparently the only "strategy" he will ever attempt. But that could tie in with why most spec has all the Mogos going early post-merge; Jenna (and Jerri if she's still around) manages to deliver Rupert to the Chapera alliance as she promised.
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Charonna 112 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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02-24-04, 06:04 PM (EST)
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55. "RE: EP5 Boot Speculation" |
Ok.. I've been reading the posts.. and decided it's my turn to put my 2cents in... I think the tribe that goes to Tribal Council will not be able to vote out their "new" tribe members.... Last season, Jeff gave the 'out casts' a week to get settled in with the new tribe before they could be voted for. If Jerri is voted out this week, then I think Saboga would have not been dissolved... (I think it would be good television if Rob M and Richard were stuck together in the same tribe)..
But, I have a feeling Saboga stays intact.. and Mogo is history..
Rupert, Ethan, Jerri, Jenna, Richard, Lex, Shii Ann...
and Rob, Amber, Tom, Alicia, Susan, Kathy, and Colby making up the new tribes... Jerri still going home? I don't know.. just my opinion.. we welcome yours...
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sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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02-24-04, 06:05 PM (EST)
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56. "RE: EP5 Boot Speculation" |
I'm probably the only one, but I think Colby may be going this week if MM loses the immunity challenge.The only reason I think they may lose is because of the promo with Richard saying "you must go bye bye". It's hard to believe they'll lose the IC if they do end up getting Rupert & Ethan, but crazier things have happened. The reason I suspect Colby is because CBS keeps saying the boot is a shocker, and Colby shows up in interviews on 2 promo clips. Colby has gotten almost no face time so far. If they do get R & E, they've got plenty of physical power & losing Colby won't kill them. (consider the other tribe in this scenario having all women except Robfadda & Big Tom) The only hint of alliance for Colby that I've seen is with Richard, and that sounded less than secure. Feel free to tell me I'm nuts. };->
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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02-24-04, 07:10 PM (EST)
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59. "Colby = Toast?" |
We have a lot of information to work with this week. Clearly one tribe is disolved into the others. Based on the IC caps and the fact that Shii Ann is still wearing green and Rob is still wearing Red the logical conclusion is Saboga is disolved. Further based on the fact that Ethan is squaring off against Rob, and Jenna is squaring off against Hatch, and the "king neptune" teaser which IMO can only be Rich/Rupert on same tribe... the logical conclusion would have to be:New Mogo Mogo - Rich, Colby, Lex, Kathy, Shii Ann, Ethan, and Rupert New Chapera - Tom, Rob, Alisha, Sue, Jenna, and Jerri Second I think we have been too focuses on the contact area portion of the IC challenge. The challenge is more about ballance than it is about the contact areas which are likely very limited. While contact would favor the bigger and stronger NMM, the challenge as a whole favors the better ballance people (and the women in past ballance challenges have proven themselves superior in that arena). So I think that NC wins this handily even if Rob has to go back to the start for initiating contact too early. This would nicely fit into the teaser about one tribes success being short lived, as the only way I see NMM being created the as described would be if they get to pick the Sabogans that they want. With NMM going to TC for the first time, I think it is difficult to gage what will happen. While I think Rich would have been the likely first boot from this tribe before the new additions Im wondering if the new additions dont change that. Will Rich pull the new Sobogans (who likely will take any offer they can) to his side and lure the wishy-washy Shii Ann over to help boot Colby? Rich's long term success has to be based on a individual immunity run at some point, so it makes no sense to keep a guy who has proven himself proficient in that area around. Sure he could also target Lex, but clearly Colby would be first target wouldnt he? I with the added strength I think you could certainly afford to loose him at this point, and everyone has to be at least a little leery of him repeating his IIC run... somehow I think it's time to cut Colby loose... which of course would fit nicely into the "you wont believe who's going home" quote. -ICB
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aethelstan 4435 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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02-25-04, 10:44 AM (EST)
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66. "King Richard" |
Hi KB,I'm going to respectfully disagree with your analysis of Sue.
The reasons you give for a Sue boot are sound but they hinge on one assumption: that Richard is at the centre of the 'outraged' next episode. I think it will be Ethan or Rupert who is outraged next episode. We've already seen Rupert get angry if a single vote is cast against him so it wouldn't be a stretch for it to happen again. Also, the CBS misdirection says: A triumphant party is short-lived . To me, this strongly suggests that the RC winner (Mogo-Mogo) loses at IC despite what they think is a huge strength advantage. So, Lex and Ethan will start rekindling the Boran Boys Club and together with Rupert and Kathy or Colby will team up to vote out Richard 5-2. The two votes will be Richard and Shii Ann's against either Ethan or Rupert depending on who is outraged next week. Moreover, if, as we both suspect, Mogo Mogo wins Ethan and Rupert, then Richard's assets become superfluous. Ethan and Rupert are both strong swimmers, both contribute way more to the day-to-day life of the camp, Rupert is a successful fisher and both are stronger than Richard. And, they still have Lex and Colby who are very strong in challenges As a result, Richard becomes expendable. Mogo Mogo will still have 4 strong men where Chapera would have only Tom and Rob M. (Though to be fair, Sue and Alicia are both way stronger than ShiiAnn or Kathy) So, that said, I don't think that Richard has any advantage over the other men in his tribe from a usefulness or a 'challenge workhorse' standpoint. Just my 2 cents... 
© Kittyloaf Creations, 2004
Winter has left me adrift...
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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02-25-04, 11:02 AM (EST)
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67. "RE: King Richard" |
Hi Aethelstan!>I think it will
>be Ethan or Rupert who
>is outraged next episode. I don't think anyone believes Richard will be outraged...but no one is sure who it will be...but many are sure Richard will be the CAUSE of the outrage, in which case he still has to be around in EP6.
>Also, the CBS misdirection says:
> A triumphant party is
>short-lived . To me, this
>strongly suggests that the RC
>winner (Mogo-Mogo) loses at IC
>despite what they think is
>a huge strength advantage. There are many possible explanations other than MM losing the IC... "A triumphant party is short lived" A "triumphant party is short lived" could be refering to the "party" Tom and the other Chapera are having PRIOR to the RC, after their raft is complete, and they are feeling like they will be triumphant again in the RC. It is "shortlived" when they lose to Mogo Mogo. The Chapera could come in second in the RC and still feel "triumphant" not having been dissolved, partying with their new tribe mates. This party could we "short lived" if they lose the IC the next day. The Mogo Mogo could win either the RC or the IC and during their "triumphant party" someone could get injured (break a bone), an arguement could break out over someone's actions (Richard), or a storm could suddenly cut their party short. The triumphant party could be a feast of fish that results from the King Neptune competiton, and it could be short lived if the loser is a bad sport and does something to spoil the mood...
It's nice that we finally have a week that we're not so sure of...keep up the great spoiling!
Krautboy
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raidersfantom 137 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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02-25-04, 11:10 AM (EST)
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68. "RE: King Richard" |
I am going to respectfully agree Ae with your analysis of why Rich is going over at Mogosquared. I like the idea that the boys from Sabooger go to the dark side after the RC. The girls then join the Robfaddah's harem, and pull out a stunning upset at IC sending the MogoEgo to TC and "little baby bye bye" to King Neptune.
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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02-25-04, 12:51 PM (EST)
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72. "it has to be Soozin" |
Here is why I think Soozin is the obvious boot candidtate this week.For one, we know that Saboga gets disovled. Now, we also have a pretty good idea that no one from Saboga gets voted off this episode. How do we know this? Spoilers/spec support that Rupert is in the game for awhile, long enough to outlast Rich Hatch and show up at the S7 reunion with weight loss. We also believe that Jenna is around long enough to lose weight and have a family visit. I personally believe that Ethan is around long enough to be publically humiliated by RobM (and we know that doesn't happen yet since they end up on different tribes). Myself, I believe that Jerri is the person outraged in episode 6 so she is safe. Since all of Saboga is safe and logically none of them should be safe I can only assume that Saboga is given a free pass from this week's TC. Don't tell me this is a "reward" for losing since they still enter episode 6 at a distint numerical disadvantage because of the tribe being disolved. So, the next question becomes, who is the most vulnerable at Mogo and Chapera if those tribes go to TC. At Mogo, the obvious and IMO ONLY boot choice is Rich. He doesn't have an alliance and his role as provider will most likely diminish this episode. But, this doesn't make sense since we know for a fact that Rich is the cause of the outrage in Episode #6. Therefore, Rich is safe this week and since he is the only boot candidate from Mogo it leads to the belief that Mogo MUST NOT go to TC this week. This belief is also supported by the IC challenge pics and the belief that Mogo wins the IC. If, as assumed, Rupe AND Ethan end up on Mogo that would make a vitory for MOgo in a physical IC a forgone conclusion...so it is not hard to believe that Mogo wins the IC this week. That brings us to Chapera. Obviously there are two boot candidates....Alicia and Sue. Varner and Snewser seem to believe that Alicia will be around for awhile. Now, Varner may not have all the facts right, but if he were to be right about ANY survivor it would have to be his best bud Alicia. As for Sue, she definitely has an enemy in Tom so that is one vote. She seems much more of an outsider than Alicia who is right there in the shelter cuddling with RobM and Lamber. Plus, Alicia is more of a physical presence which SHOULD be a huge concern to the female laden new Chapera tribe, especially when they are staring at Rupert, Ethan, LEx, Rich and Colby across the way at challenges. Also, RobC's glowing comments about how much he likes Sue sound alot like Loser lodge bonding comments to me. Plus, OFG theory seems to be back this season and we have a definite OFG shot of Sue in the promos, giving a confessional similar to RobC's OFG moment last week. All in all, I think the obvious boot this week is Sue. And next week I'm leaning towards Jerri quitting the game.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-25-04, 01:23 PM (EST)
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76. "Clues to the outrage" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-25-04 AT 01:24 PM (EST)I like Shakes' scenario too. Regarding the "outrage", this is what we have on Richard: From Kristin (E! Online gossip): I hear that the scandal happens during a contact challenge (sounds like he (Richard) rubs up against another teammate). She waits until the next challenge and lashes out at Jeff Probst saying, you saw this and did nothing...I'm suing you...I'm suing all of you. And quits on the spot. MarkoPolo, spoiling this week's episode (Ep 5) on SurvivorNetwork: We've also heard plenty of rumors about him (Richard) quitting or, more likely, doing something to make someone quit. If those rumors are true, and we think they might be, Richard is probably safe this week. Again, we're not sure.
However, from his Survivormeter comments on Richard, it seems he is basing this on Kristin and Varner (see JV's comments on Rich below): E! Rumor: Quits? Or involved with someone quitting. Fits with Varner rumor very nicely. Varner on Richard: He will cause drama. He will be dramatic. And in a turn that no one expected, he'll be the center of a controversy that you'll never believe. I've been told to expect the mighty and very loud fall of King Richard. He starts the game talking junk and it goes down hill from there. The self-proclaimed "grower, not a shower" causes big trouble in this game, and not just for himself. Now, here's Varner on Ethan and Rob... On Ethan:
I've been told to look for a major pissy diva temper tantrum thrown by Africa winner Ethan Zohn. I'm told he will be very embarrassed at his behavior when America sees it. On Rob:
He gets a rise out of making people squirm...And always, high, high drama with this guy. The rumor mill has it that the "Robfather" intimidates, bullies and pushes the envelope in this game so far past what is acceptable. Look for the Robfather to continue his strategy of "creating loyalty through fear." I'm told his strategy was to rummage through potential contestant closets, find their skeletons and store them in his back pocket, ready for war. Though not the only one, he crossed the ethical line the most.
Varner on the Ostener:
There is a second contestant that reaches the boiling point, throws up their hands and angrily leaves the game. The situation that produces this exit will get strong emotional reactions from everyone watching. I'm told it changes the game, therefore something that can't hit the cutting room floor. They have to show it. I'm slobbering waiting for this episode! You should be too. You'll never believe who leaves and what causes them to leave. NEVER! I could tell you, but I'd never spoil it for you!
------------------------------------- I think the outrage could result from all the Ethan/Rob head-butting -- I don't think they need to be on the same tribe for that. But it does sound like Richard is going to do *something* that affects someone else, whether male or female, and there is nothing to suggest it will happen this week. Remember, JP said Ep 6 is one to watch! Either way, I'm pretty convinced now that Richard can't leave just yet.
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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02-25-04, 02:14 PM (EST)
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79. "The Debate Continues :-)" |
Well I will have to chime in and echo those not in the Susan camp this week though we can't know for sure.First off, I don't believe at all anything I heard from this gossip woman; whatever all this stuff is may, in fact, be roundabout as to certain things that happen but I don't buy into necessarily any of the time lines or the specifics. That being said, I can't commit that "Outraged" has anything to do with Hatch. Second, without any further information, we only know Jenna is at Chapera and Ethan is at Mogo Mogo. I would suggest they may alternate which means Rupert and Jenna should go to Chapera. That nothwithstanding, I don't necessarily agree the Neptune teaser means Rupert and Richard are on the same tribe, however and, in fact, the teaser almost strikes me as Rupert and Richard battling for King of Neptune BUT in a broader sense, i.e. which one wins out in that one is going and only ONE on ASS will reign as the King of Neptune. That could infer that one of them will leave and only one with be the King of Neptune I think also that in terms of MM, only ShiiAnn is in Richard's fan club. With the arrival of Ethan, Lex is more secured with Kathy and Colby will come along and Jerri will make sure she is not going anywhere by joining up. Also, revenge is an interesting word in the riddles and I think that as a whole, it IS a general vibe amongst all the contestants that outsting Richard Hatch is a coup One definition of "revenge" is an opportunity for getting satisfaction. What better satisfaction than to get rid of the Neptune Nemesis and self proclaimed King of Survivor.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-25-04, 02:29 PM (EST)
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81. "RE: The Debate Continues :-)" |
Here, here VS. Well done once again. Although the teams seemed stacked with Colby, Rupert, Ethan, Lex, Rich on one team against Robfadda, drunk Tom, Alicia and harem, I still think that the Happy Chappy's may pull it off. If they do, revenge will prevail and Hatch will see Argentina after all.FWIW, Flowerpower
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pdragonfly1 4 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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02-25-04, 02:25 PM (EST)
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80. "RE: it has to be Soozin" |
Well, I could see Rich doing something so that they don't have rice, assuring that he remains King Neptune. If he gets caught then its bye-bye. It could also be that he makes certain lewd gestures with parts of his anatomy that most people cover. (I don't want to risk getting booted for being obvious).That being said, the word "disolved" keeps coming up in the previews, not "merged." If the contestants think their merging, maybe Shi-an can set them straight about the pitfalls of that. In the previews I saw them making the rafts, but I didn't see EVERYONE on their. I'm wondering if the disloved team splits up and goes home via raft with the other teams. Maybe they had to pick four from each tribe and send them somewhere for the challenge. And its those 4 that are sent that risk being disolved into the other teams. Now, not for nothing, but when I first heard "disloved" I figured everyone on that team would go home, then thought again and figured America couldn't stand it if Rupert got sent home so early (although by now most of us are ho-hum about the guy).
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-25-04, 02:53 PM (EST)
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82. "$,02" |
Assumption: Jenna and Jerri go to Chapera, while Ethan and Rupert go to Chapera.(Just wanted to get that out of the way) So, obviously: Chapera
Rob (S4)
Amber (S2)
Tom (S3)
Alicia (S2)
Sue (S1)
Jenna (S1)
Jerri (S2) Mogo Mogo
Lex (S3)
Kathy (S4)
Shii Ann (S5)
Richard (S1)
Colby (S2)
Rupert (S7)
Ethan (S3) Let's look at Chapera first. I call this group the "Old School Bunch," because the majority of the group came from the first three seasons. The first three seasons are interesting to me, pre-merge, because there was little re-shuffling within the tribe. Even after the switch in S3, Boran and Samburu stuck with their own tribes. This is my major concern with a Susan boot. Would Alicia look elsewhere (Jerri and Jenna) to build an alliance, or stick with the Robfatha group? IMHO, it would be smartest to stick with Rob, since he and Tom are bigger merge threats, especially with the romance going on. Will Rob try to keep Alicia and Susan in the group, or will look to Jerri and Jenna? Maybe it's the old-school thoughts again, but I think he might simply try to keep Chapera together. But that's just me. Mogo Mogo is a different story. It's clear that Richard and Colby have a pretty casual alliance. Richard's keeping him around as a quiet ally. We also know Lex obviously has a beef with Richard, as indicated by his comment about getting the rice container. Note the word "we" in the statement. He wouldn't make that kind of statement if he didn't have SOME sort of backup... I'm guessing he might be in with Kathy and Shii Ann. Where does Rupert fit in. Like mentioned elsewhere, Rupert is the answer to Richard. Now Lex has an excuse to get rid of him. Also, look at the psychology. Would Rupert allign with Richard or Lex? IMO, Lex. Forget the "Outraged" title for next week. Pretty much EVERYONE on the show could be outraged for some reason. Whether it's Richard, Rupert, Ethan, Rob, Jerri, Jenna, et al. 
A 2004 IceCat creation
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