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"Existing alliances and tribal dynamics after episode 2"
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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-04, 10:20 AM (EST)
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"Existing alliances and tribal dynamics after episode 2"
I think it would be useful to see what alliances currently exist in the tribes to try and determine future events (i.e., TC votes).

At C, we have the Amber-Boston Rob alliance. The insider tapes implies that Rob C and Alicia might have an alliance. Sue seems to be on ther outside.

At M, the insider tapes indicate Rich thinks he has an alliance with Colby. The girls talked about getting together, but that idea was exposed and disappeared. Plus the all girl alliance never works. Rich's behavior seems to be annoying people

AT S, Jenna and Jerri are together. Ethan is on the outside

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: More on Saboga Raistlin212 02-06-04 1
   RE: More on Saboga Blow by Blow 02-06-04 2
   RE: More on Saboga Dragonomine 02-07-04 20
 RE: More on Mogo Mogo Raistlin212 02-06-04 3
   RE: More on Mogo Mogo mtopaz 02-06-04 7
 RE: More on Chapera Raistlin212 02-06-04 4
   RE: More on Chapera mtopaz 02-06-04 6
       RE: More on Chapera Raistlin212 02-06-04 8
           RE: More on Chapera Blow by Blow 02-06-04 9
               RE: More on Chapera munson 02-06-04 12
   RE: More on Chapera Raistlin212 02-06-04 13
   RE: More on Chapera GetMeOuttaHere 02-06-04 16
 RE: Existing alliances and tribal d... Oscirus 02-06-04 5
 InterTribal and IntraTribal Dynamic... JohnMc 02-06-04 10
 Chapera KObrien_fan 02-06-04 11
   RE: Chapera crayZoZ 02-06-04 14
       RE: Chapera KObrien_fan 02-06-04 17
           RE: Chapera Flowerpower 02-07-04 18
               RE: Chapera speedyforme 02-07-04 19
 RE: Existing alliances and tribal d... GetMeOuttaHere 02-06-04 15

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Raistlin212 17 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-04, 10:52 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: More on Saboga"
Saboga: Rupert is technically alone, but he can fit into any alliance easily as the provider. It also gives him an advantage when a merge comes because he can easily fit into an existing group. That fits in with sleek's list, since RobM, Amber, and Tom would be stupid not to hook up with him until the F4 - then ditch him there.

Ethan has the previous winner stigma, which is actually good in the late stages. Who else would you rather have in the F2 at your side than a previous winner? If Saboga can avoid TC for a few more shows he can quite far into the draw. The down side is that in a tight situation, where there's no clear "weakest link" he's a good compromise vote for everyone to turn against. He's only going to be as good as his allies, and right now that's nobody.

Jenna and Jerri's alliance seems to only be for convinience. I'll bet Jerri will stick a knife in Jenna's back as soon as it's needed. Jerri seems to be playing the sheep role for now, but who expects that to last? Meanwhile Jenna has already alienated Rupert and Ethan. She better hope she doesn't come up against them later in the game.

Verdict: If they go to council again with these 4, Ethan will be the main target. He'll have to try and steal a friend and can probably get Rupert. But that's a 2-2 deadlock Ethan vs Jenna. Ethan and Jenna both have 2 votes carried in. So it would be who would flip first, Jerri or Rupert? That would be a fun one to see, but apparently it will never happen if the spoilers are right. They'll be split up and sent to other tribes where Rupert can ride his strength and reputation into a new alliance, while Ethan will eventually get taken out for being a winner and the girls will piss off somebody one time too many.

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Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-04, 11:02 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: More on Saboga"
Gee, for a first post, you've got a great handle on where things stand in Saboga. I don't really think this group of four is going to face an IC in the next episode and I'm betting we see the tribes merge from 3 to 2 within two episodes. We haven't seen a lot in the way of camp management, so it's hard to know how much each person is contributing, but I think it's likely that Rupert and Ethan will see each other as providers/workers and will form a bond that way. We see Rupert and Jerri getting into it in the previews for next week, and Ethan and JennaL are clearly at odds, so I think that provides even more of a case for a 2-2 split in the tribe.

Mogo-Mogo: We started to see a lot more of their dynamics last night, but not really enough to go on. I think Lex and Kathy have a bond but the rest are a little at loose ends. After that first day they probably put alliance-building on the back burner. Whatever Rich is doing, it's behind the scenes or being edited out, but I'm certain he's working on various partnerships because he's a great study of people's personalities.

Chapera: The only partnership here as far as I can tell is RobM and Amber. RobM doesn't like Alicia and is probably too arrogant to value her strength. Tom seems to be getting along. Sue's on the outside. I get no read at all on RobC, which may be bad news for him.

-BbB

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Dragonomine 20 desperate attention whore postings
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02-07-04, 10:39 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: More on Saboga"

Rupert seems to always get in with the ladies. I think it's Rupert, Jerri and Jenna. God knows why they didn't keep Rudy and vote Jenna off!


"Do Not Trifle With Dragons, For You Are Crunchy And Go Well With Brie..."

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Raistlin212 17 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-04, 11:06 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: More on Mogo Mogo"
Mogo Mogo: Lex is a leader. I don't think anyone in the tribe would admit it, but from the editing and confessionals he seems to be the main guy. Richard is playing the outsider, but he's also being useful. Colby is actually doing the exact same as Richard, but while Richard is a wacky/harmless offensive...Colby's almost bitter and grumpy. The Ep1 insider clip where he didn't mingle with the rest of them very much was insightful.

The girls are kind of enigmas. Shii Ann is apparently not fitting in very well either. Lex seems to be annoyed with her most of the time. Kathy is just nice and quiet, flying very UTR. Jenna is apparently going to be a non-factor is the spoilers can be trusted.

There's no clear alliances. They all agreed to keep the scheming down after Richard broke up the girls strategy session on the first day, and I think they are actually going to follow that until they lose a IC. Then it will get bloody quickly.

Verdict: If they have to go to an honest TC right now it's tough to predict the outcome. I think Rich and Jenna have to be the main targets, and I'm pretty sure Shii Ann would go with Rich based on her comments about getting rid of the king wouldn't be fun. Colby apparently has a thing with Richard (smirk all you want guys) that's 3 for Jenna. Lex is keeping his loyalty close to the vest. I think Shii Ann is his only enemy and without him fighting hard to get Karen on his side, I don't think Jenna would survive the TC anyway. Of course this is all moot, since it's a commonly accepted fact that Jenna will throw down her torch next week anyway. Once that happens it's a new ball game.

If the have to go to another TC right after that my prediction is that Richard would have to put Shii Ann out as a target. Rich+Colby+Lex gives him the majority so she'd be gone.

With this tribe having no obvious divisions yet, it would be very explosive to add in new people. If they merge with half of Saboga those people would have an excellent chance of grabbing 2 Mogo Mogo people and using the 4-3 edge to knock out the rest.

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mtopaz 2167 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-04, 12:39 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: More on Mogo Mogo"
I am rooting for Lex and Kathy -- I would love them to make Final 2.

I agree Lex is the leader, but in a laidback, "concensus-building" type of way. This group is the most harmonious of all three.

If they went to TC, I agree it would likely be a toss-up between Shii Ann and Rich. Take down King Rich, or keep him around because he's strong in the IC's? Colby and probably Lex find Shii Ann annoying, but enough to wish to vote her off first? If Colby/Lex/Rich all agree that Shii Ann should be next, I see Kathy and Jenna going along without too much angst. I was a little surprised she made it on All Stars, because she didn't do very well the first time around - maybe some of her castmates feel the same way.

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Raistlin212 17 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-04, 11:25 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: More on Chapera"
First off...thanks Blow by Blow. I've been lurking here forever, but with only a freemail, I haven't been able to join. After last night I just borrowed a friend's account. I really wanted to join in on this.


Chapera: Apparently Amber and Rob have the tightest alliance in Survivor history if you look at the spoilers. It fits his MO to pick a girl and carry her to the end. And it fits her MO to let someone do it. That's got to be broken up now, or else they will be the F2. Tom is loyal to a fault. Who ever promises an alliance to him will have his vote until the end. I haven't seen anything to indicate where his loyalties lie yet, other than he sees the Alicia vs RobM conflict and wants to see how that's going to work out.

Sue is the obvious outsider here. If nobody plans for very far down the road it would be easy to see a 5-1 vote at TC against her. I think (from the Ep2 extras) that RobC admirers her strength so he might try and propose an alliance?

RobC's kind of a mystery to me. I didn't watch his season so I never got to see how well he played it, although I've heard that he was good. He's apparently got a loose alliance with Alicia, and might try for one with Sue. That might be enough, but with a target on his back as being the "Best to play the game" he's in more danger than some of the previous winners.

Alicia clearly doesn't like any of the men in the tribe. And she's been sitting out challenges, which strikes me as odd since supposedly she's the most fit woman out there. She's not going to get far without friends. She's irritated all the guys, and Amber's already taken. That leaves Sue, and an alliance of the two least liked people in camp is about useless.

Verdict: There's no reason why this tribe should ever lose a physical challenge. Sue and Alicia are stronger than some of the guys out there and Tom's in Rupert's league as an ox. RobM destroyed the boat challenge. They won't lose unless they throw it, or it requires brain power. Then they're hosed.

If they go to tribal council like this I can't see it going any way other than 5-1 against either Sue or Alicia, depending on who was more annoying/lazy that week. RobC and the girl not chosen will agree to whatever they think the rest are going to do just to not rock the boat.

The only grey area is what RobC can cook up. The spoilers say Tom is in RobM's pocket which pretty much leaves RobC on his own. He needs a merge ASAP, and even then he'll need 3 people to join with him to break them up. It's not going to happen.

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mtopaz 2167 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-04, 12:10 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: More on Chapera"
They won't lose unless they throw it, or it requires brain power. Then they're hosed.

Agreed that a mental challenge would be a liability for Chapera. But I don't necessary agree that Chapera will keep winning IC as long as the IC is a physical challenge. It's been pretty close each time, and time will continue to wear on their bodies, so that their physical strength will be less of a ruling asset, and their divisiveness as a tribe could potentially affect their performance in the challenges more.

If they go to tribal council like this I can't see it going any way other than 5-1 against either Sue or Alicia, depending on who was more annoying/lazy that week. RobC and the girl not chosen will agree to whatever they think the rest are going to do just to not rock the boat.

Since RobM is apparently calling the shots at this point (with Tom biding his time, but not necessarily deeply loyal to RobM), if they go to TC, it will be RobM's call on who to boot. But I'm torn between Alicia and RobC as the potential target. RobM and Alicia are openly antagonistic toward each other, but he may perceive RobC as a bigger threat, more able to sway others against him. If RobC, Alicia and Sue banded together, that could create a possible tie vote. As you said, if RobC was thinking strategically, he'd be doing whatever he could to break up RobM and Amber, and boot one of them off. Does he see this, and if so, would he have a hope of convincing Tom to go along with it?

The only grey area is what RobC can cook up. The spoilers say Tom is in RobM's pocket which pretty much leaves RobC on his own. He needs a merge ASAP, and even then he'll need 3 people to join with him to break them up. It's not going to happen.

I don't necessarily agree Tom is in RobM's pocket. But Tom is a man's man, and in Africa, he didn't consider any of the women worthy of an alliance. The pretty women were okay to flirt with, and that's about it. He feels strongly that Kim didn't deserve the Final 2 spot -- I doubt he'd feel Amber deserves to even make it to Final 4. I think RobC's only chance would be to convince Tom that they need to break up RobM and Amber now, and boot off Amber. Tom would not agree to vote out RobM, not at this point.

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Raistlin212 17 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-04, 12:40 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: More on Chapera"
LAST EDITED ON 02-06-04 AT 12:40 PM (EST)

But I don't necessary agree that Chapera will keep winning IC as long as the IC is a physical challenge. It's been pretty close each time...

I don't think it's been that close. And now that they only need to use their top 4 it's going to be even more of an advantage. If they played several more rounds with these three tribes, I'd lay money that Chapera would take 80% or more of the physical challenges. All three of their guys can pull a fair load, and Sue's not exactly a drop off. Rotate in Alicia to keep them fresh. Look at what four would be out there. That's a ton better than Jerri and JennaL or Lex plus the best of JennaM/Kathy/Shii Ann. Mogo Mogo would occasionally take one, but not even Ethan and Rupert can cover for JennaL and Jerri.

Rupert/Ethan/Jerri/JennaL
Colby/Richard/Lex/Kathy (with backups of JennaM/Shii Ann)
Tom/RobM/Sue/RobC (with backups of Alicia/Amber)

That's not even fair....


But I'm torn between Alicia and RobC as the potential target.

I really think they'd go with Sue. She's as stubborn as Alicia, and useless around camp. RobC is playing like a sheep this time and pretty much doing what RobM says (as far as I've seen, who knows how the editing affects this).

Alicia would go before RobC. I get the feeling Amber doesn't like Alicia after the whole sleep thing in the first episode, and I know all the guys are irritated with her. There's also a few pics around here of Amber and RobC beinging close at a Survivor function.

RobC might be scary, but his hands are tied, and I think RobM knows it.

I think RobC's only chance would be to convince Tom that they need to break up RobM and Amber now...

I looked at it from Tom's view. RobM and Amber are two votes glued together. I go with them, we carry to the merge easily. I'd try and get RobC to join me and them and let the two annoying girls rot, then cast off RobC when you get to the point where you need to. No reason to break up the pair of Amber and RobM, because they're already on your side.

He did the same thing in his season, and Kathy rode to the F2 he thought he deserved...and I'm willing to bet he'll fall for the same thing again.

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Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-04, 01:43 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: More on Chapera"
Alicia would go before RobC. I get the feeling Amber doesn't like Alicia after the whole sleep thing in the first episode, and I know all the guys are irritated with her. There's also a few pics around here of Amber and RobC beinging close at a Survivor function.

I gotta disagree with this. If I'm RobM and I've studied past seasons, I know that Alicia never got a strategic game going and never had a tight bond on her own tribe. She didn't get voted out by Kucha because she was far less annoying than Kimmi and contributed more in challenges. But overall she's a zero threat to RobM because she'll never get her own alliance going.

RobC on the other hand played a very strategic game and RobM has to be worred that RobC can pull together the loose ends of the tribe to bust up whatever RobM/Amber are working on.

I agree that Amber probably doesn't really like Alicia, and I'm certain RobM doesn't like her, but I think he's smart enough to know there's a difference between not liking someone and wanting them off your tribe.

All that being said, I think Sue and RobC are in the most tenuous positions. But did you see Sue swimming in the RC? She'd pretty good in the water and since most challenges have been water based, that might be on people's minds when/if they go to TC.

-BbB

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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-04, 06:42 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: More on Chapera"
I gotta disagree with this. If I'm RobM and I've studied past seasons, I know that Alicia never got a strategic game going and never had a tight bond on her own tribe. She didn't get voted out by Kucha because she was far less annoying than Kimmi and contributed more in challenges. But overall she's a zero threat to RobM because she'll never get her own alliance going.

It would be a mistake to underestimate Alicia's strategic game. We never saw much plotting or scheming from her in the Outback most likely because it wasn't necessary. Knowing how the game would play out, MB probably doesn't waste air time on the Kucha tribal dynamics except for the first boots - Debb and Kimmi.

According to her postgame interviews, Alicia had a very strong bond with Varner and brought Nick along to form a voting block. Unfortunately for Alicia, Mike had his accident and Kimmi had a big mouth so we never got to really see her game.

That said, I agree that Alicia is not in a favorable strategic position and ,therefore, not much of a threat to Rob4.

I'm still convinced that Alicia and Robamber won't square off until they absolutely need to.

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Raistlin212 17 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-04, 07:08 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: More on Chapera"
If RobM does run this tribe (and he's got the numbers to do it) then it's really...what does he want to do. If I was him, I'd get rid of Alicia. I'd still have the majority to boot RobC later if I need. She's a constant fight for leadership, and Amber doesn't seem to like her either.

But, KObrien_fan seems to have analysed this better than I did. RobM isn't thinking logically, as shown by several questionable tactical decisions. I thought the fact RobC and Amber have hung out at Survivor events before might give him a little cushion, but I guess Amber's opnion isn't an issue. RobC is a valid target, and his game prowess is as solid as any of the winners.

I do still think that Tom is going to ride those two all the way to the final.

After that it's all speculation. Sue's very much an outsider, and annoying. She might join in with the other 3, might not. Alicia's in the same boat.

Scary, but I'm thinking sleek's list is looking better every minute.

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GetMeOuttaHere 43 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-04, 10:08 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: More on Chapera"
Well,you have read it will be Amber and Rob in the final 2 here,and Tom 3rd.
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Oscirus 1596 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-04, 11:28 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Existing alliances and tribal dynamics after episode 2"
Great insight.
At Sabatoga theres the jenna-Jrri thing with Rupert and ethan vying for the third position.
At mogo mogo theres seemingly two different alliances theres the working alliance of Colby,Lex,Jenna and Kathy and a new one of Colby and Rich.
At Chapera you have Rob Tom Amber and whoever is more useful between Alicia and Rob I thimk they are leaning more towards Alicia though.

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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-04, 02:03 PM (EST)
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10. "InterTribal and IntraTribal Dynamics"
Saboga

Jenna/Jerri – They are both women, both came in 8th place, and similar in age. While they may betray each other later, they will stick together right now.

Jenna/Ethan – If Saboga goes to TC next week, we know that Jenna will vote against Ethan. A – She’s going to vote against a winner. B – Rupert can get them fish, so he’ll be kept around. C – See the above comment on her and Jerri’s alliance.

Rupert/Jerri – We see that they have a spat next week. This will work out well for Ethan. At this point, Ethan can team up w/the girls to get rid of Rupert, the man who is now his biggest competition.

Mogo Mogo

Lex – keeping his cards close. He will make his alliance when he needs to. We do know that he thinks Shii Ann is contributing the least, and that’s about it.

He also still has Ethan and Tom around from the other tribes once a merge comes.

Kathy – seemed a little irked that the guys waited an extra night to finally start fire. (And what, she couldn’t do that???) But Kathy wears her emotions on her sleeve. It’s good to keep her around because you will know where you are with her. Then you get rid of her when you need to and NOT before.

Shii Ann – wants to keep King Richard around just to keep it interesting. Not a good strategy, but that’s what makes this game fun! She knows she’s a weak link physically, so she’ll have to play the mental game and hope to win that way.

Jenna – also knows she is weak. More of a ghost this season, and she’ll probably leave when she hears that her mom dies. However, for those in the game, they won’t know this until it happens. She doesn’t seem to have much more than the girl alliance that wasn’t able to form.

Rich/Colby – We know from the Insider that Colby is being neutral, and that Rich thinks he can play off that.

Also, both Rich and Colby have had their season’s alliance-mate booted already, so they may feel a little more vulnerable. They didn’t know who would be there, but knowing they are playing may have let them feel like an old alliance tie may still exist. This vulnerability may allow them to work together more for votes.

Chapera

Rob M/Amber – this is DEFINITELY the island romance. These two need to be broken up, but probably won’t be.

We also know that Rob M is the tribe leader, probably because he is the loudest.

Tom – isn’t going to make waves. He’ll let the officers kill each other off till he’s the only Indian left.

Rob C – he is the outsider of the men. He is the weakest male in the tribe, so he’s going to have to hustle Alicia and Sue for their votes. He’ll have to play his cards perfectly and convince those 2 and Tom that they need to break up Rob and Amber. But if they do, then they’ll still have the one left to contend with, so then the target comes back to either Rob C, Alicia – the loudmouth, or Sue – the loner.

Alicia – known conflict w/Rob M, but may keep him because of the above.

Sue – not making any ties, playing a Rich strategy.

Amber and Jerri may still have some pre-game ties. If they all last, Amber and Rob may be able to hook up w/Jerri and Jenna L at the merge and ride that all the way to F4.

Also, just as a matter of tracking, here is the order that they tribes have finished in challenges so far:

Challenge win order
Ep 1 IC – Chapera 1, Mogo Mogo 2, Saboga 3
Ep 2 RC – Saboga 1, Mogo Mogo 2, Chapera 3
Ep 3 IC – Chapera 1, Mogo Mogo 2, Saboga 3

Per tribe
Chapera – 1/3/1
Mogo Mogo – 2/2/2
Saboga – 3/1/3

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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-04, 05:43 PM (EST)
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11. "Chapera"
I think it interesting to look at the comments about this tribe pregame. Not many spoilers on this board thought Chapera tribe had a shot in heck of winning physical challenges, and now it seems to have taken a 180 where it is speculated they should win 80% of the challenges or that they are the dominant tribe.

See the thread First Boot Speculation

I think it is clear from watching the show, plus the most recent yahoo insider revealed that Rob C confirms that Rob M is in the drivers seat making the decisions for Chapera as the leader.

He appears to be making some of the decisions with his heart and not his head (no surprise). In the RC, a physical challenge, he decides to sit out Big Tom (described by many as a workhorse), and the 3 people that went out for the 3rd rung? Rob M, Sue, and AMBER???? I thought Amber was supposed to be alot weaker then Alicia, and in point of fact, Chapera finished 3rd in that challenge.

So the IC comes, another physical challenge, who sits out? Alicia. Once again he keeps Amber in the challenge, but sits a stronger (supposedly) player. Fortunately for them, he was also the only one who knew how to get the boat empty the quickest and Chapera cruised on to win the IC.

Rob M shows moments of a brain, but way too many more of not thinking without his emotions


Surgeon General G.A.W.K.U.R's of OT

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crayZoZ 29 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-04, 08:31 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Chapera"
Always very thoughtfull analysis and looks right on the money.

Alicia sitting out the IC could perhaps be because she doesnt handle the water as well as Amber. I havent seen the episode yet is Amber a better water person?

Agree, Alicia is physically a lot stronger.

Do you think she would volunteer or infact agree to sit out unless she felt another tribe member could contribute more than herself?

Cheers
crayZoZ

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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-04, 11:36 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Chapera"
I think with Rob M calling the shots both she and Big Tom and the others would bow to his wishes. She might not be happy about it, and we may have missed the interplay between them when discussing who was to sit out, but when push comes to shove, until she can show she is better, she would go along to get along.


Surgeon General G.A.W.K.U.R's of OT

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

02-07-04, 09:31 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Chapera"
As we heard in the Insider clips Rob C. is okay with the Robfadda's leader role with the big exception of his partnership/romance/alliance with Amber. He feels strongly that this pair must be broken up and since Amber, in his opinion, is the weak link to their tribe than she has to go. I think, when you debate the likely target of Robfadda, Alicia vs. Rob C, CLEARLY it will be Rob C. I think a little birdie will somehow leak it to Robfadda that Rob C. is out to boot Amber,and poof, the early, surprise demise of Cesternino....may he rest in peace with the fishies!.....he'll be at the mercy of Robfadda


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speedyforme 228 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"

02-07-04, 10:06 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: Chapera"
see, i like villians, i really do , BUT i do not like them when they make it to the final 2...never...and i hope it doesnt happen with ROB M...
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GetMeOuttaHere 43 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"

02-06-04, 09:59 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Existing alliances and tribal dynamics after episode 2"
A magazine showed Tina and Colby on the cover,the headline was "Secret alliance",or something to that effect.Tina and Colby posed for the shot after S2.
The question?
Colby played Jerri and Keith,but got played by Tina.
Whom is playing whom and what have we not seen yet?
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