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"First Boot Speculation: Part 2"
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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01-21-04, 04:23 PM (EST)
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"First Boot Speculation: Part 2"
As Brownroach suggested, let's use this thread to continue and refine the discussion started here:

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=4589&forum=DCForumID2&omm=0


Krautboy

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2 Brownroach 01-21-04 1
   nice summary idiotcowboy 01-21-04 2
   Where's Tina? Krautboy 01-21-04 3
       RE: Where's Tina? VerucaSalt 01-22-04 4
       RE: Where's Tina? Brownroach 01-22-04 5
   RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2 pmspml5 01-22-04 8
 Jeff V's opinion Loree 01-22-04 6
   RE: Jeff V's opinion pmspml5 01-22-04 7
       RE: Where Flowerpower 01-23-04 9
           RE: Where Brownroach 01-23-04 10
               A compliment... Krautboy 01-23-04 12
                   RE: A compliment... Brownroach 01-23-04 14
       RE: Jeff V's opinion CaptainP 01-26-04 27
 Richard or Tina? Krautboy 01-23-04 11
   RE: Richard or Tina? Flowerpower 01-23-04 13
       RE: Richard or Tina? Brownroach 01-23-04 15
   RE: Richard or Tina? Brownroach 01-23-04 16
       Does Tina's team come from behind? mavsfan 01-24-04 18
           RE: Does Tina's team come from behi... Brownroach 01-26-04 25
               Victorious Chapera digitally remove... Krautboy 01-26-04 26
 What is the advantage of 1st over 2... idiotcowboy 01-23-04 17
   RE: What is the advantage of 1st ov... VerucaSalt 01-24-04 19
 Snewser Found Picture of Immunity I... sweetpea 01-24-04 20
   RE: Snewser Found Picture of Immuni... MattyMax 01-25-04 21
   RE: Snewser Found Picture of Immuni... munson 01-25-04 22
   RE: Snewser Found Picture of Immuni... Krautboy 01-25-04 23
       Promo with Tina celebrating pmspml5 01-26-04 24
   Immunity Idol Pic Comparison IceCat 01-26-04 42
       RE: Immunity Idol Pic Comparison Krautboy 01-27-04 43
           RE: Immunity Idol Pic Comparison Brownroach 01-27-04 45
               RE: Immunity Idol Pic Comparison okaloosajohn 01-27-04 46
                   RE: Immunity Idol Pic Comparison idiotcowboy 01-27-04 47
 Ethan and Rob M on same tribe? Brownroach 01-26-04 28
   RE: Ethan and Rob M on same tribe? Krautboy 01-26-04 32
       RE: Ethan and Rob M on same tribe? Brownroach 01-26-04 34
           RE: Ethan and Rob M on same tribe? idiotcowboy 01-26-04 36
           ACME Calendar Krautboy 01-26-04 37
               RE: ACME Calendar Brownroach 01-26-04 40
                   RE: ACME Calendar idiotcowboy 01-26-04 41
 Winged Monkeys report updated Brownroach 01-26-04 29
 RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2 bondt007 01-26-04 30
   RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2 pmspml5 01-26-04 31
       RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2 Krautboy 01-26-04 33
           RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2 Brownroach 01-26-04 35
               RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2 MattyMax 01-26-04 39
               RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2 pmspml5 01-27-04 44
       RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2 MattyMax 01-26-04 38
 more proof MOGO MOGO safe in ep1 O2dawg 01-28-04 48
   RE: more proof MOGO MOGO safe in ep... Krautboy 01-28-04 49
       RE: more proof MOGO MOGO safe in ep... PhillyBrat 01-28-04 50
       RE: more proof MOGO MOGO safe in ep... pmspml5 01-28-04 51
           RE: more proof MOGO MOGO safe in ep... JazzyJax 01-28-04 53
       RE: more proof MOGO MOGO safe in ep... Brownroach 01-28-04 52
 men vs women at MM O2dawg 01-28-04 54
   RE: men vs women at MM Brownroach 01-28-04 55
       RE: men vs women at MM O2dawg 01-28-04 56
           Colby idiotcowboy 01-28-04 57

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-21-04, 06:26 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2"
LAST EDITED ON 01-21-04 AT 06:45 PM (EST)

Okay I'll kick off part 2 with an analysis of the Where's Tina cap, since a lot of spoiler/commentary sites seem to be bringing up Tina as the first boot today. And I'll use Tina's very own "who sits next to who" theory to make a case for her boot.

While Tina has been in contention as an early boot for quite awhile, it's this picture of Saboga that seems to have people wondering if she's boot #1:

While you can't exactly see Jerri in this cap, the moving image apparently reveals her hat behind Rupert. So Tina is the only Saboga not visible in this shot.

Now we're still not positive whether the above cap is from an Ep 2 challenge or part of the Ep 1 challenge, though this is clearly a different location than the photo shoot location. Here's the arrival shot of Saboga for the photo shoot sequence, which apparently leads into the QFF IC challenge:

I think it's interesting how the marching order is switched in these two caps. First Rudy leads off carrying the flag, followed by Jenna and Jerri, then Ethan, Tina and Rupert.

In the other sequence Rupert leads them in, followed again by Jenna and Jerri, then Ethan, then Rudy. Is Tina out of the frame, coming in behind Rudy?

In a review of all the promo caps, I cannot find any caps of Tina interacting with Rudy at camp. In the publicity photos of the entire group and the individual tribes, she is farthest away from Rudy. She is seen most often with Ethan around camp, and is also seen in close proximity to Jerri, Jenna and Rupert in various camp and publicity shots. But never Rudy.

In the "Where's Tina" sequence, it seems more likely that Tina would be walking in the middle of the group near Ethan or Jerri/Jenna, instead of trailing along behind Rudy, with whom she doesn't seem to interact.

So, I submit that, according to Tina's own theory, Tina probably is no longer in the Saboga tribe in the "Where's Tina?" cap, and thus it is probably from Episode 2.


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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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01-21-04, 06:48 PM (EST)
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2. "nice summary"
I expect that this line of speculation and the highly rumored early exit of Tina is the reason we are now seeing lots of the Tina's first reports coming out of the other spoiler sites. While I agree that this is not only possible, but drifts into the probable range as well, I think we need to take a step back and make sure were not being mislead.

First off, clearly Tina could be out of picture behind Rudy.

Second, the Chapera tribe is not seen entering this site at all, but is seen in marching into what is likely this site and is also missing one person from view (Amber).

Third the Mogo Mogo tribe is seen entering the site after Saboga and is missing two people (Rich and Kathy, some think Shii Ann too but the person exiting the jungle in the background though not recognizable is wearing clothes that could only be associated with Shii Ann). Also note that while Rupert (Saboga) and Rob C (Chapera) bring in a tribe flag/staff, the visable Mogo Mogo group does not meaning there is likely at least one person in front of Colby/Lex with the flag/staff.

Given that, and assuming this is not from episode 1. Then our options are as follows:

- Saboga looses and Tina is booted first

- Mogo Mogo looses and either Rich or Kathy is booted first

- Chapera looses and Amber is booted first

OR

- This is neither E1 or E2, but E3 (unlikely)

-ICB

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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01-21-04, 07:11 PM (EST)
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3. "Where's Tina?"
Here's a little more to add to your analysis...

While reasonable arguments have been made for two a promo event and an IC/RC at different locations on the same day, two challenges in different episodes is the simplest explanation for what we've seen in the vidcaps:

The presence of the diving masks at the "promo event", suggests that the QFF IC follows soon after...

Confirmation of the contestants just having the "clothes on their backs", explains the lack of major clothing changes from the EP1 challenge to the EP2 challenge. However we have observed several smaller changes in hats, buffs, shoes, etc. that we would expect if two different challenges were held on different days...

The arrival sequences are different, the location is different ( as we see from the presence of the Mogo Mogo banner and the log perimeter at the edge of the sand)...

We also have what is apparently a shot of Saboga tribe members watching a challenge...

The nature of the QFF challenge does not seem to involve any sitting and watching, and the different buff location on Jenna also suggests a different challenge.

Tina is missing from this vidcap, but that can easily be explained as her just being out of the frame, but if the spoilers point to EITHER Tina or Ethan as the EP1 boot, then this shot of Ethan watching an EP2 challenge must mean that Tina is gone by EP2.


Krautboy

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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01-22-04, 10:30 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Where's Tina?"
The clothes as they are is what is really doing it for me more than anything else now. Since we only recently heard that (thanks KB for pointing it out in the other thread in the article) that changes everything. Because the clothing was SO similar in both entrance shots, I personally wondered why on earth aren't they changing their clothes if not both from first day.

Also Rudy walking in with the flag during the initial entrance picture but Rupert holding the flag in the group photo and then Rupert holding the flag in the other entrance was a bit confusing but since we see during the "group photo" Rupert is holding the flag in the back with Rudy hunched down in front, the flag is no doubt handed off to Rupert purely for photo purposes since he has the flags in the back.

Let's all face it...... SNN's report of the first boot being male WAS the key many of us were trying to go by so naturally we tried to find a male first boot and to me, Rudy was the one I felt would be going since I felt the pictures indicated their tribe losing (CO's "announcement" didn't change that either)

HOWEVER, if SNN did NOT commit to a male going first I think a lot of people would have been more solid on the Tina missing picture. Postings indicated we felt it was very strange and bothered us but we referred back to SNN stating it was a male.

See how we are already learning a valuable lesson


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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-22-04, 11:05 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Where's Tina?"
LAST EDITED ON 01-22-04 AT 11:44 AM (EST)

Thanks for adding the additional logic, KB -- I wrote the first post in kind of a hurry, and only meant to comment on Saboga's tribal dynamics vis-a-vis the missing Tina pic. (Actually I realized later that it's inaccurate to say it illustrates Tina's "theory", since I believe that had more to do with determining alliances by watching who were in close proximity.)

ICB -- In the Chapera photos, yes Amber isn't visible, but they are walking in pretty much the same configuration as they are in the press photo arrival shots, so Amber could be obscured near Rob, who is partially cut off in the cap. She is seen in close proximity to Rob in many other caps.

Re: Mogo Mogo, they seem to be straggling in erratically -- the least "coherent" tribe. I agree it's possible that one or more are already there in front of Colby/Lex. But in the press photo shots, Richard enters last, carrying the flag. We might speculate that he's doing the same here and thus hasn't arrived in the shot yet. But whatever -- it is hard to make any determinations at all from the Mogo Mogo shot.

However, I still think that the tribal dynamics that can be gleaned from the other photos suggest that Tina isn't part of Saboga's entrance, at least more so than that Amber is gone from Chapera in their arrival shot.

Rudy isn't seen really interacting with ANYONE in any caps, and if I remember from S1, Rudy wasn't a particularly sociable sort. So it seems reasonable that Rudy would be at either end of the line, "cut off" from the others. Tina, however, was VERY sociable in S2. I can't see Tina placing Rudy between herself and the Ethan/Jerri/Jenna trio on the trek to a challenge or a TC.

Even if Tina was lagging behind because, say, she stumbled or dropped something, I'd venture to guess that one of the E/J/J group, probably Ethan, would lag behind to assist her.

Anyway -- I don't mean to say that this cap is definitive PROOF of anything. But it does make an impression on me as possibly a big clue.


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01-22-04, 12:33 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2"
Ok the order of this picture says a lot if you put it with the vacationing spoilers. Tina is missing (or out of view) then from the back of the tribe forward could be your boot order. Both Tina and Rudy are said to be seen vacationing together. Both Rupert and Jenna are said to make it far and Jerry somewhere in the middle.
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01-22-04, 12:21 PM (EST)
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6. "Jeff V's opinion"
Jeff works with the TV Guide channel. And TV Guide is often invited to the island for the first few days. So I would think Jeff may have an inside edge on who the first boot is. He seems quite sure it is Tina.
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01-22-04, 12:30 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Jeff V's opinion"
Ok there has been so many spoilers based on spoilers of spoilers I went back and read the one from SNN that was really the first one we get. The thing is that many of the "spoiler" information has already proven to be wrong. One major is the color of the tribes. I have a really hard time with them getting the color wrong but getting the first boot correct. I have just come to the conlusion to go with my gut. I think that Tina missing makes sense and so does Richard. I also think that the shots after the immunity challange of Rob and Amber etc show them being just too happy. We can see that Colby is upset but what we dont see is any reactions from Saboga. So all in all I think that either Tina or Richard are are only two good candidates for first boot at this point.
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01-23-04, 02:25 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Where"
LAST EDITED ON 01-23-04 AT 02:30 PM (EST)

I tend to like Idiot Cowboys summary. Tina could clearly be behind Rudy, and are you sure the hat seen in the moving shot is of Jerri's hat and not Tina's. Their two collective hats look pretty similar from a short distance away....is the hat the only part of Jerri that was seen? Are you sure this is indeed Jerri and not Tina?

Also this could be on the same day....remember the theory that the original two losing tribes from the first IC may have to compete against each other to determine whose tribe indeed goes to tribal counsel. Has anyone reached any opinions regarding this?

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-23-04, 03:09 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Where"
LAST EDITED ON 01-23-04 AT 05:00 PM (EST)

I haven't seen the animation, but others who have say it's Jerri's hat. Here's another still cap, probably a second or two later:

Admittedly it's blurry, but the hat behind Rupert's right shoulder appears to have a brim that extends to the sides, which is consistent with Jerri's; Tina has a baseball cap.

Also, you can see a little more of the area beyond Rudy in this grab, and no one is even partially visible emerging from the brush.


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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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01-23-04, 05:06 PM (EST)
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12. "A compliment..."
LAST EDITED ON 01-23-04 AT 05:20 PM (EST)

Consider it a compliment...



Krautboy

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-23-04, 05:16 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: A compliment..."
LAST EDITED ON 01-23-04 AT 06:11 PM (EST)

Funny, KB It's a compliment of course, but, lest you forget, we are DAWS!!!


This post and Krautboy's above are totally meaningless now, so just move along...nothing to see here...

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01-26-04, 01:22 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Jeff V's opinion"
Haha, yeah. Colby WOULD be upset that his meal ticket (Tina) could possibly go first...

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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01-23-04, 04:50 PM (EST)
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11. "Richard or Tina?"
Good arguments have been made that either Richard or Tina are the first boot. They seem to make good sense.

If we assume that Tina or Richard are first and we take another look at this TV Guide image:

The Red Chapera tribe has already arrived on their red tribal mat, Green Mogo-Mogo, has just arrived and Richard is either removing or returning the torch to the raft. Regardless, both are leading Yellow Saboga who can be seen in last place just approaching their yellow tribal mat.

While it's not clear if this is the end of the race or not, the presence of the tribal mats suggests that the rafts have reached their final position, even if their may be some other torch lighting element after they arrive.

The green tribe looks to be far enough ahead of the yello tribe at this point in the race, that it is most likely that the yellow Saboga tribe finishes last.

It then follows that if we are deciding between Richard and Tina, and only one person is booted in EP1 (as the WingedMonkeys reported at SNN) then Tina is first to go...


Krautboy

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01-23-04, 05:11 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Richard or Tina?"
LAST EDITED ON 01-23-04 AT 05:17 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 01-23-04 AT 05:13 PM (EST)

Your logic makes perfect sense to me KB, but, how can we be sure that if there is another leg to this race, in and through the jungle and back, that the green team out does the yellow on this? I still have to play Devil's Advocate once again.

Now, back to the emerging from the jungle pics. There seems to be a very large gap between Jenna L. and Ethan in the filing out of the jungle clips. Both pics here validate this.....could it be that she is after Jenna L.?

I do see what you have pointed out about the hats. In that first picture at the start of this thread I could'nt tell if Jerri's hat was a cap or a brimmed hat.....in the second picture, it is clearly a brimmed hat behind Rupert, good catch! While Tina is clearly wearing a baseball cap.

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01-23-04, 05:26 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Richard or Tina?"
LAST EDITED ON 01-23-04 AT 05:27 PM (EST)

There seems to be a very large gap between Jenna L. and Ethan in the filing out of the jungle clips.

Yeah, I did notice this as well. But, if Tina were already walking in the sandy part behind Jenna there should be another shadow crossing the sand back there. If she were still in the grassy part she'd be at least partially visible -- an arm or a leg at least -- Rupert isn't that big:


>

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-23-04, 05:52 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Richard or Tina?"
LAST EDITED ON 01-23-04 AT 05:53 PM (EST)

Great summary of what's going on in that cap, KB.

While it's not clear if this is the end of the race or not, the presence of the tribal mats suggests that the rafts have reached their final position, even if their may be some other torch lighting element after they arrive.

In the post-challenge hugging shot, the flying green and yellow banners from your cap are also visible:

So even if there is another element after the rafts are deposited on the mats, it seems that minimal additional travelling would be required to complete it, since they all end up here.


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01-24-04, 01:55 AM (EST)
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18. "Does Tina's team come from behind?"
It seems reasonable that once the teams drop their rafts on the mats, the teams then run a relay into the jungle to light torches.
(Based on the picture of Richard with the torch in hand and Colby looking like he's virtually gasping for breath pre hug).

The 1st torch may be 25 yards into the jungle. 2nd torch may be 50 yards into the jungle, etc... each leg deeper in.

We seem to see Richard picking up or returning the torch to it's slot as Tina's team hauls their raft onto the mat.

So we have Richards team leading Tina's at this point of the relay.

Someone posted a spoiler of questionable reliablilty that said 'during the relay into the jungle, just when you think one teams in ahead, next thing you know they are losing.' Originaly I dismissed this possible spoiler, but I think it was the first time I remember seeing a "relay" aspect for the quest for fire.

If Richard's team is ahead of Tina's at this stage, Doesn't Tina's team have to be the come from behind team? And Richards team have to be the team that was ahead but lost?

I guess it depends of how much IF ANY faith to put in the supposed spoiler about a team coming from behind.

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-26-04, 11:20 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: Does Tina's team come from behind?"
If there is an additional segment to the challenge, it seems possible that Chapera has already completed that segment in the cap of Richard retrieving or returning the torch.

First, if Chapera is still doing the last leg in this cap, it would appear that not everyone is needed for it, since Rob C's blue shorts and another sitting person's legs are visible near their raft.

But it's the sitting person that strikes me as odd -- I'm sure they'd be tired from hauling the raft, but if the challenge isn't finished yet, would it be natural to flop down at that point? The person seems to facing the other two tribes, so they wouldn't even be paying attention to any tribemate(s) that had to run into the woods or run forward on the beach.

So I wonder if Chapera, in this cap, has already had enough time to complete the challenge, hi-five each other or whatever, and then flop down near the raft while they wait to see who comes in second.



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01-26-04, 12:45 PM (EST)
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26. "Victorious Chapera digitally removed?"
LAST EDITED ON 01-26-04 AT 12:48 PM (EST)

There's been speculation (at SS)that the picture in question has been digitally altered with some sort of a "cloning tool" (tool used to duplicate another part of the image) and that the torsos have been touched up to look like the background. That would explain the legs standing up by themselves.

It may be that the Chapera in that picture are finished and high-fiving, etc., but because of the promotional value of the naked Richard, MB had to remove the celebratory parts of the image.

Just another clue that points to a Chapera victory...


Krautboy

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01-23-04, 05:59 PM (EST)
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17. "What is the advantage of 1st over 2nd?"
I dont expect there is a run-off between the 2nd and 3rd place tribes (especially in episode 1 if for no other reasons than time constraints), so what is the advantage to winning over being in second place if indeed there is only one tribe at TC at a time (which I would also expect given this is ASS and they want to stretch the thing out).

Most likely it will be 1st - Immunity and Reward, 2nd - Immunity, 3rd - tribal council, but what if it isnt?

<content=wildspeculation>
In a take off of the steal a member of the other tribe, what if the 2nd place tribe has to send away one of its members to the 1st place tribe. This of course would cause all sorts of havoc, keep everyone on their toes, reshuffle alliances weekly, and account for missing people in an entrance photo...
</content>

Granted this is nothing but pure speculation, and if something like this were to happen I would expect it would not be in the first episode (too much introduction, tribe creation things, and people in general for a big twist to happen). Still I think we need to expect the unexpected this season...

-ICB
overthinking Survivor since Austrailia

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01-24-04, 07:58 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: What is the advantage of 1st over 2nd?"
I'm just going to link this because this poster put this up as opposed to a website posting it.

FatalEvilCanuck blew up that picture. At this point, I feel pretty secure that Tina is not there. The blown up picture is near the bottom of the thread, third one up (you can hardly miss it)


http://pub207.ezboard.com/fsurvivorsucksfrm11.showMessage?topicID=835.topic

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01-24-04, 11:16 PM (EST)
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20. "Snewser Found Picture of Immunity Idol"
I found this over at sucks.

Look what Snewser found!


And, as BJ continued in the post," It looks like the idol has two parts - Rich has the bottom fishy thing and the other winning tribe must have the top part"


And, we can safely say that if the bottom half of the idol is at Mogo Mogo with Rich there, then he is safe in episode one.

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01-25-04, 00:01 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: Snewser Found Picture of Immunity Idol"
Woah! If Richard gets 2nd, then this could explain this pic:

This is richard putting back the torch at the mats! One of those 'photo finishes' I never understood this photo, because I didn't understand why Richard would be putting the torch back into the raft on the ground, but it makes sense say they forgot a cauldron to run back and get it, which Rich does, and this is when he's putting the torch in right at the end. He's probably on a Green Mat parallel to the yellow one, and explains his little (subtle) grin, and Yellow's grimmaces.


So If yellow goes to TC, do we have a Tina boot?

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01-25-04, 12:39 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Snewser Found Picture of Immunity Idol"
So, if the vidcaps discussed above and in the previous First Boot spec thread are indeed E2 shots and Mogo Mogo has immunity in E1, the only two boot choices are Amber and Tina. Everyone else is accounted for - see O2dawg's post here: http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4666.shtml#144

Looks like the only question now is if the vote against Tina is 5-1?

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01-25-04, 11:53 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Snewser Found Picture of Immunity Idol"
BJ at SS also posted the story behind the Immunity Idol:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dolphinious the Dolphin

Long ago there lived a bard named Arion. His songs and poems were so beautiful that animals and people alike would sit silently while he played. One day Arion competed in a song contest in a far off land. Naturally, he won, and he was rewarded with bags of gold, a jeweled sword, and a suit of silver armor. The only ship he could catch back home, unknown to him, was a pirate ship. When the crew saw the riches he was carrying, they decided to kill him. The captain approached him and told Arion that he and his crew were going to kill him and take his wealth. Arion had one last request-to play his harp. While he was playing and singing, a dolphin swam up along the ship to listen. Arion threw himself overboard, and the dolphin took him to the nearest port where a king lived. The first thing Arion did was tell the local authorities. When the pirate ship reached the port, the crew was arrested and brought before the king.

"What happened to the bard Arion who was on your ship?" asked the king.

"The fellow was quite mad," replied the captain,"he jumped overboard and was eaten by sharks."

"So what did you do?" asked the king.

"We did what any good seafarer would do. We found the shark and killed it so it wouldn’t harm anyone else."

At that moment, Arion stepped out of his hiding place and said "That’s the same thing we do to pirates in this town."

The next day, the pirates were executed and Arion’s treasure was returned. A few days later, he safely returned home.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Immunity Idol is Arion riding the Dolphin...

The first place tribe (Chapera) gets Arion and the second place tribe (Mogo-Mogo) get the dolphin. Both tribes share Immunity as each tribe gets half of the II. After the merge from three tribes to two, the winning tribe will get both Arion and the Dolphin, so the II won't change after the first merge...



Krautboy

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01-26-04, 10:43 AM (EST)
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24. "Promo with Tina celebrating"
There was a promo over the weekend that shows Tina celebrating in a yellow buff. I think this is very missleading because Ogakor had bright yellow from S2 didnt they? There is also a picture of Jerry/Colby/Amber in yellow buffs - this just has to be from S2. The one that gets me is Rob and what looks like Tom in yellow buffs rowing a boat with Red behind them. I looked and there was no Red tribe during his survivor so I think this was from ASS. Anyone else see these. I have them on Tivo but was hoping someone else saw them and might beable to post.
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01-26-04, 10:59 PM (EST)
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42. "Immunity Idol Pic Comparison"
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01-27-04, 01:45 AM (EST)
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43. "RE: Immunity Idol Pic Comparison"
Nice work Ice!

Just like the good ol' days...that should remove all doubt.


Krautboy

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01-27-04, 10:48 AM (EST)
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45. "RE: Immunity Idol Pic Comparison"
It does remove all doubt for me (thanks Ice!). But I think in the cap with Rich the backside of the whale is facing the camera, as I see a small tailpiece in front. In the first cap I see another knobby protrusion to the left of the G-shaped swirl. So there probably are two bumps right behind where the figure sits, in addition to the "eyeball" protrusions.

Either way, though, it's the bottom part of the II.


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01-27-04, 01:17 PM (EST)
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46. "RE: Immunity Idol Pic Comparison"
Okay. So it's a two part II and Mogo Mogo has the bottom part after what we presume to be the first IC. Does it make sense to assume that they finish second since they got the bottom half of the idol?

Does this mean that Chapera wins, which would be the only logical choice if Tina really is the first boot.

But then that doesn't fit with the spoiler that Chapera is still without fire a week or more into the game!

We're obviously still missing something.


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01-27-04, 01:28 PM (EST)
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47. "RE: Immunity Idol Pic Comparison"
> But then that doesn't fit with the spoiler that
> Chapera is still without fire a week or more into
> the game!

The spoiler as I heard it was Chappera was without fire ON day 3. Since day 3 is likely the day of the IC challenge the early part of day 3 they would still be without fire, but it did not preclude them from winning and getting fire after the challenge.

If Chappera is without fire past day 3 though one or more of our assumptions about what is going on in this episode are likely very very wrong.

-ICB

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01-26-04, 02:16 PM (EST)
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28. "Ethan and Rob M on same tribe?"
LAST EDITED ON 01-26-04 AT 02:18 PM (EST)

Ok, this is from an article by the dubious Kristin on E, but since it's apparently a direct quote from JP:

Probst says, "Ethan has had a lot of women surrounding him since the show, in one way or another, and it was kind of the running joke. Rob Mariano said in the beginning he was outing every relationship he knew of if it helped him in the game. And early on, he's going, 'So Ethan, you've got one (fling) over here and over here and over here.' "

Does Rob say this TO Ethan? It was reported in TV guide that the Robs were talking about Ethan's various relationships at Chapera during EP 1, but how would it potentially hurt Ethan for Rob to harp on this unless/until they are on the same tribe together? A clue that Ethan makes it to the first merge?


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01-26-04, 04:22 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Ethan and Rob M on same tribe?"
"The dubious Kristin" is right, she has also recently stated that two people are voted out in EP1, and while it now seems likely Ethan makes the merge, taking Kristin's word for it is risky...

Kristin may be part of the misinformation conduit that CBS is using...in any case it seems that her reports contain more erroneous information than accurate, so it's probably just easiest to ignore her articles for the time being...


Krautboy

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01-26-04, 04:38 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Ethan and Rob M on same tribe?"
Oh, I agree it's wise to ignore HER, but this is in quotes as having come from JP. And TV Guide reported that Rob was cracking wise about Ethan's exes as well, so I don't think this qualifies as disinformation from JP. It's just a question of whether Rob had the chance to rag on Ethan directly...


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01-26-04, 05:06 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Ethan and Rob M on same tribe?"
The question I have is were the comments pre-game entirely? The impression I got from the other thread where JP discussed the contestants was that it was Rob M's "strategy" going in to use anything and everything he knew about the others to their disadvantage (if possible). Given his first run's in-your-face proactive style I expect he will be somewhat successful turning people on each other at the most opportune time (much as we saw Jon do late last season).

-ICB

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01-26-04, 05:13 PM (EST)
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37. "ACME Calendar"
Regardless of JP's comments, it's very likely for Ethan to last until the first merge, and it's a 50-50 chance they end up together on the same tribe.

The ACME Calendar...
http://acmebraintrust.com/index.php?page=432
...shows the merge taking place after Jenna leaving and three Tribal Councils.

If Tina, Rudy and Rob C. are the first three to go before the merge, Ethan could easily be on Rob M's tribe for EP4 and beyond...


Krautboy

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01-26-04, 05:26 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: ACME Calendar"
...thus puncturing the C1's intel rather badly, is what I mean...


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01-26-04, 06:20 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: ACME Calendar"
If Ethan hangs around to the 3-2 merger C1's "spoiler" becomes more than suspect. In fact the list might need to be looked at as deliberate misdirection fed directly (or indirectly) by EPM/CBS in order to "discredit" the man
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01-26-04, 02:29 PM (EST)
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29. "Winged Monkeys report updated"
LAST EDITED ON 01-26-04 AT 02:32 PM (EST)

Snewser hasn't de-alphabetized his thumbs-down boots on the scorecard yet but in the Winged Monkeys article, this phrase:

we can pass on that the first boot should be male.

is now crossed out, and this has been added at the end of the paragraph:

(*we fired binocular person)


ETA: He also put up his checkmark grid and filled in the EP 1 and 2 titles, but no checkmarks are added yet.


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01-26-04, 02:56 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2"
LAST EDITED ON 01-26-04 AT 02:58 PM (EST)

Just to add two worthless cents to the "where's Tina" caps above, BR talks about where she would "likely be" walking. My thought supports this in a different light: Rudy is a man that would most likly take the back of the line, and not "allow" a female to follow him (the gentleman).

Just a thought, but I'm just thinking about what I know about these people from history. Not that I have studied cap's of Rudy walking in line, just that I doubt that he would walk in front of Tina...

edited to say: I know he appears to be first in line, in a few other caps, but then Rupert is in the back... I think men just do this... more or less -

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01-26-04, 03:19 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2"
LAST EDITED ON 01-26-04 AT 03:20 PM (EST)

There are two things bugging me really bad right now - and I COULD BE color blind (not really-but just and excuse if I'm way outahere) The promo with Rob and what appears to be Tom rowing a canoe with the "red" team behind them - but they are on red right?

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01-26-04, 04:25 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2"
Can you bring the cap over or provide a link to the image your talking about?


Krautboy

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01-26-04, 04:54 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2"
I thinks pmspml5 might be referring to this promo:

>
>
>
>
>

MattyMax posted these awhile ago from the CBS website, and tribephyl already confirmed that all the caps are of challenges from prior installments.


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01-26-04, 05:19 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2"
hah, beat me.
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01-27-04, 07:48 AM (EST)
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44. "RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2"
That was my first impression and thoughts because yellow is in a lot of the previous survivors but there was one front picture of Rob and the boat behind him was in red - (or what looked like red to me but could have been purple) and there was no red in Marquesas just light blue, yellow, and bright purple. But yes thats the promo I was talking about.
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MattyMax 515 desperate attention whore postings
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01-26-04, 05:18 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: First Boot Speculation: Part 2"
Hey PMS,

I know what you're talking about. But I'm pretty sure all those clips are from previous seasons. I was tricked by them earlier (I made clips and posted them in this forum). But I think that's a shot from the maraamu days. The person behind him isn't clear

if you can IDENTIFY that its TOM with him on the canoe, then that'd be a great clue for future challenges, but the clips I took only got an arm of the person.

MM

(belated happy 200 to me!!)

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01-28-04, 03:23 AM (EST)
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48. "more proof MOGO MOGO safe in ep1"
ON the CBSnews site. there is a video of the MOGO MOGO tribe, and in it is a very clear shot of the MOGO MOGO tribe in front of the large banner. THIS definitely is starting to look like EP2and not the same day IC challenge with the meet and greet. And all 6 members of MOGO MOGO are accounted for in this shot.

MOGO MOGO are wearing variations of their clothes when compared to the 'meet and greet' shot. Kathy has her hair in pigtails, as does Jenna. And both Lex and Shii Ann are wearing hats.

All of MOGO MOGO (except Richard) are looking intently toward where Saboga is entering, as if they are looking to see who was booted. Wish i could Vidcap this pic.. aggh. will come back if I finded it posted somewhere.
The shot is at 59seconds on the CBS website:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/26/earlyshow/series/survivor/main595953.shtml

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01-28-04, 03:57 AM (EST)
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49. "RE: more proof MOGO MOGO safe in ep1"
Here's the vidcap I think you're describing...

Yes, EP2 and all the Mogo-Mogo are present.

Another nail in Tina's coffin...


Krautboy

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01-28-04, 06:30 AM (EST)
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50. "RE: more proof MOGO MOGO safe in ep1"
Just by looking at this piture, and using Tina's idea of lookin who is near who.

We have Kathy/Shii next to one another and they are closer to Lex as well.

Then we have Richard and Jenna (The winners. Thus I assume would bond together fast)

And all alone seems to be Colby.

Just the body language in this shot. I would think Colby would be the first boot over Richard. That is if K/S/L think so, they will have the power in this tribe.

-=Bratz=-

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01-28-04, 07:18 AM (EST)
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51. "RE: more proof MOGO MOGO safe in ep1"
OH I think this either nails it shut or pushes her out. Colby looks the most interested in seeing who got voted out - and I'm in the Tina's gone boat - however why are Rich and Kathy smiling - are they happy she is gone?
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01-28-04, 12:15 PM (EST)
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53. "RE: more proof MOGO MOGO safe in ep1"
Or just checking out Colby's reaction... hmm, you guys are convincing me that these are EP2 shots after all...

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01-28-04, 10:45 AM (EST)
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52. "RE: more proof MOGO MOGO safe in ep1"
Great work, 02dawg, and KB for posting this. Comparing with the other cap, it looks like Colby and Lex do enter first and separate; then Jenna, Shii Ann, and Kathy close up the space, with Richard bringing up the rear.

So only Amber and Tina are currently missing from Ep 2 caps.


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01-28-04, 02:09 PM (EST)
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54. "men vs women at MM"
LAST EDITED ON 01-28-04 AT 02:13 PM (EST)

WHEW... glad to see there is a vidcap. Just saw it myself on SF.net. This is actually a second later than the clip I was referring to, where all 5 are staring over at Saboga.


But this clip is great, my first thought was that Colby looks concerned and that Kathy is looking for Colbys' reaction. Also in this clip you can see Ruperts arm holding his banner.

On the closeness of the tribemembers in MOGO MOGO, there is now a transcript on SF.net, that seems to give away our first alliances, men against the women on MM tribe.

This from the voiceover transcript at SF.net


Kathy: They're making alliances.

Jenna: I told you it was going to be...

Kathy: It's the guys against the girls totally.

Shii Ann: Heyyyy...

Richard: Those girls are plotting, honey. I hope you aren't plotting with them.

Colby: No we didn't discuss anything. Honestly.

Richard: People are a little bit paranoid and that's a good state to have them in.


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01-28-04, 02:12 PM (EST)
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55. "RE: men vs women at MM"
Richard calls Colby "honey"?


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01-28-04, 02:16 PM (EST)
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56. "RE: men vs women at MM"
LAST EDITED ON 01-28-04 AT 02:20 PM (EST)

HONEY!!! I think that is totally hilarious!
My guess if the reports are true, that the second person who gets fed up and leaves the game.. it is Colby.

Maybe not because of Richard, but that might be an annoying factor that makes him decide to go. And Colby also says his heart really isnt into playing the game in pregame interviews.

edited to add:
On second thought, during S2, a friend of mine in Dallas worked out at the same gym as Colby, which was a primarily gay gym, and I am sure he is used to this kind of banter. Plus he works in hollywood.. he HAS to be used to being called HONEY.

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01-28-04, 02:26 PM (EST)
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57. "Colby"
After reading the entire quote (I only read here during the day), I dont buy that Colby quits anymore. To me it sounded more like he didnt feel he was in the physical shape to dominate the end game like he did in Australia, and he didnt trust the people around him enough to make any alliances to carry him far into the game (both are likely very true especially after his only in-game buddy gets voted out first). My guess is he doesnt do the needed things to survive, but I doubt he quits either... if for no other reason than Hollywood is watching!

-ICB

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