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"Individual Challenge History"
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-03, 04:56 PM (EST)
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"Individual Challenge History"
Based on preliminary information we have about the S8 tribes and the past performance of the All-Star contestants, we can speculate about how the tribes might perform in the early team challenges (before they merge into two tribes?)

PAST INDIVIDUAL CHALLENGE WINNERS:


Blue Tribe (8):

Ethan (2)
Reward: “Stomp-eede” (Catapult target game)
Immunity: “Box your Mind” (memory game)

Rudy (1)
Immunity: “Squared Off” (Game)

Rupert (2)
Reward: “Signal Fire” (Sling Shot)
Immunity: “Mixed Nuts” (Q&A/ Alliance Revealer)

Jenna L. (0)
None

Jerri (2)
Reward: “Double Play” (Paired obstacle course)
Reward: “Return to Sender” (Boomerang Throw”)

Tina (1)
Reward: “Survivor.com” (Question/Answer)

Green Tribe (21):

Richard (1)
Immunity: “Fast Fire” (Fire Building)

Colby (8)
Immunity: “Fallen Comrads” (Question/ Answer)
Immunity: “Memory” (Memory Game)
Reward: “Survivor Pentathalon” (Super-Challenge)
Immunity: “Fugitives” (Q&A Race)
Immunity: “Bluie Plate Special” (Sling shot)
Reward: “End of the Line” (Race)
Immunity: “Fire and Rain” (Fire-Scale Race)
Reward: “Double Play” (Paired obstacle course)

Lex (5)
Immunity: “Second Chance” (Super Challenge)
Reward: “Swahili Scramble” (Word Puzzle)
Reward: “Know your Loved One” (Quiz)
Immunity: “African Folklore” (Q&A Race)
Immunity: “Light it Up” (Fire-Building)

Jenna M. (4)
Immunity: “Braille Maze” (Blindfolded Race)
Immunity: “Will Power” (Endurance/Balance)
Immunity: “Shoot n’ Shuffle” (Slingshot/Plates)
Immunity: “Face Off” (Q&A Alliance Revealer)

Shii Ann (0)

Kathy (3)
Immunity: “Marquesan Folklore” (Q&A Race)
Reward: “Go Fly a Kite” (Build and Fly a kite)
Immunity: “Sea Legs” (Balance/ Endurance)

Red Tribe (2):

Rob C. (1)
Immunity: “Touchy Subjects” (Q&A)

Rob M. (0)

Tom (1)
Immunity: “Pot Shots 2” (throwing target shoot)

Alicia (0)
Amber (0)
Susan (0)


Analysis:

Blue Tribe

Ethan and Rupert would carry the blue tribe in physical challenges. Remember that Ethan often finished second to Lex and his victories to not accurately reflect his performance.

Green Tribe

The green tribe is the physical challenge powerhouse with Colby, Lex. Kathy is also a strong competitor in any challenge that involves paddling. Shi Ann is their weakest link, but they seem to have more than enough horsepower to compensate. Jenna having to leave the game at about EP2 is the only thing that might send the green tribe to TC early.

Red Tribe

This is the tribe most vulnerable in the first few challenges, which are usually physical in nature. This is the tribe we should probably look to for our EP1 boot. Keep in mind that the numbers are skewed a bit by the fact that several of the red tribe members never got to compete in individual challenges because of their early departure from the game.


The early favorite to win the first Challenge of S8 appears to be the Green tribe, followed by the Blue tribe, with the red tribe being the long shot...


Krautboy

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Individual Challenge History badger 12-15-03 1
 RE: Individual Challenge History munson 12-15-03 2
 RE: Individual Challenge History rose 12-15-03 3
 excellent early analysis JohnMc 12-16-03 4
 RE: Individual Challenge History KObrien_fan 12-16-03 5
   Red tribe... munson 12-16-03 6
 RE: Individual Challenge History mistofleas 12-16-03 7
   RE: Individual Challenge History KObrien_fan 12-16-03 8
 RE: Individual Challenge History bris 12-16-03 9
   RE: Individual Challenge History Krautboy 12-16-03 10
 RE: Individual Challenge History SurvivorBlows 01-04-04 11

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badger 1273 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-03, 06:53 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Individual Challenge History"
thanks, krautboy, for pulling this info together! your posts are always illuminating.

after looking at these numbers and the heavy imbalance towards "team colby," i am reminded of many other times MB has created a "strong" team that does well initially, but then implodes amidst the glory.

i do wonder how jenna's exit (jenna m that is) and jon's presence might fit into this? (particularly if he replaces her on that team!!)

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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-03, 07:41 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Individual Challenge History"
Excellent deduction that red could be in trouble in the first IC which is always a physically demanding, endurance type race.

In fact KB, I like your analysis so much I'm going out on a limb and predicting Rob as the first boot. Altho not yet ready to commit to which one.

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rose 313 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-03, 07:56 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Individual Challenge History"

I've missed you KB! You've done a wonderful job here, pulling all this together. Thailand was the first season I watched, so it is nice to have this info right at my fingertips.

*Sincere gratitude and gushing*

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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
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12-16-03, 01:17 PM (EST)
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4. "excellent early analysis"
That Krautboy, he's always thinking. I hadn't thought to look at the teams in terms of their individual challenge history.

I want to say that I DEFINITELY agree with your analysis. One thing to keep in mind, though, is that some contestants received boots early in the jury forming process. For example, Rob M didn't even make the jury, and he's a very physical threat. And Alicia was booted because she was expected to be a physical threat. So the red team does have a chance physically, particularly with a female as physically strong as Alicia. She probably would beat Jenna M in most challenges.

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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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12-16-03, 01:42 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Individual Challenge History"
Brilliant KB, absolutely awesome!

However, I also think that too much stress can be put on individual abilities though in a team competition. The individual pieces are going to be an important factor, but how will they work together as a team? Susan and Alicia are both strong as are Rob M and Big Tom, if they can work together and gel quickly plus with the incentive of beating the others, they might surprise some people.

On paper, team red certainly does look the weakest and if they go to the first TC I would say Amber would go. Also, we are assuming that only one team would go to TC. Not quite sure how the 3 team dynamic will play out.

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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
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12-16-03, 02:31 PM (EST)
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6. "Red tribe..."
Where is everyone getting the Rob M as strong thing? Yeah, he should be but he never showed it in the Marquesas. In fact, he's shown himself as more likely to quit than struggle.

Susan is the most pathetic challenge participant in the history of the game.

Big, fat Tom was dragged along by Clarence, Ethan and Lex and even then wasn't that big of a contributer. It was the SOS IC challenge and the efforts of Kim J, that saved Boran and stopped the bloodletting.

As for Rob C, when it comes to athletic or physical challenges, good thing he's smart.

Amber? Who's this Amber?

Nope. Red will struggle in physical challenges.

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mistofleas 8043 desperate attention whore postings
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12-16-03, 03:04 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Individual Challenge History"
A comment on the Green Tribe:

Richard
Colby
Lex
Shii Ann
Jenna
Kathy

All strong both physically and mentally. They each played a mental game as well as kicking ass at challenges. Except of course Shii Ann who while not physical did contribute well to the mental challenges.

My first thought when I read this list --they've been set up to look like they'll win everything, but because of the old "too many cooks" adage, they'll falter and not win as a team very often if at all.

I don't think they'll be able to cooperate with each other easily. They're all strong willed. None of them are going to settle for the back seat when it comes to leading a challenge and THAT is why they'll lose.

I'm predicting it now but don't worry, I've got the salt out to eat my hat later.


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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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12-16-03, 03:17 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Individual Challenge History"
Thats exactly what I was talking about is the team chemistry aspect. If the individuals don't hit on full cylinders together as a unit, then they may fall apart. A team that looks "weak" on paper can make up for other short comings by working together. I'd bet money that is exactly why they have broken into tribes like this. One strong team, one fairly strong team, and one weak team.

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bris 143 desperate attention whore postings
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12-16-03, 03:34 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Individual Challenge History"
you say Colby won the Reward: ?End of the Line? (Race) challenge but if you read Amber's chat it is very clear that he cheated on that challenge so with out cheating AMber should have won the challenge you can chack out Amber's CBS chat if you dont believe me
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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12-16-03, 08:30 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Individual Challenge History"
Good point Bris. We should also note that Tina should get credit for the Immunity Challenge: "Pole Perch", which she let Keith win in order to save him and their alliance...


Krautboy

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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-04, 07:15 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Individual Challenge History"

BUMPING so that this won't sink to the bottom when moved to the normal Survivor Spoilers forum
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