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"First Boot Speculation"
Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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12-21-03, 03:14 PM (EST)
 
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"First Boot Speculation" |
Since we've already started speculating about the early boots, I thought it might help to try and keep that information together in one place...Using the best current information about the 18 contestants starting out as three tribes of 6, who is most likely to be voted out if their tribe goes to TC. 
While early indications suggest only one person gets voted out in EP1, it's also possible that only the winning tribe is immune and one person from each of the other two is voted out. Based on what we know from their previous Survivor performance and style of play, who's most likey to be voted off from each tribe? 
Krautboy
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survivorscott 2191 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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12-21-03, 08:13 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
Out of TEAM BLUE i have a hard time believing that Rudy and Tina go first. But then again anything can happen in Survivor.
I see an Old Boys Club forming between Rupert and Rudy, both have strong work ethics, with Ethan and Tina joining them because of 1. Ethan being a guy, 2. Tina being in their age range and most of all 3. Everyone seeing how Jerri was in the Outback
I see Jenna going along wanting to fit in. But her being targeted next. At that point who knows how it would break down, In Survivorscott world it would go Ethan, next, Tina, Ruper, and Rudy winning it all, but I know that won't happen.
Come in a stranger,leave a little stranger
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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12-21-03, 09:15 PM (EST)
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4. "The Weak, the old, and the obnoxious... " |
Generally speaking the weak (or sick), the old (or out of shape), and the obnoxious (personality conflicts) are traditionally the first ones out. With all-star you also have the added issue of the infamous whether it be a past winner (Rich, Tina, Ethan, Jenna) or the jealousy factor for peeps like Jerri & Colby who managed to transfer some of their fame from inside the game, outside of of the game (Rupert might be included in this list too).Weaklings Generally these are the #1 targets unless someone in one of the other catagories insists on being first instead (happens a lot). Sicklings are especially vunerable, but its hard to guess who might catch a case of dehydration or other malady, so the physically weaker are all you can identify. Since we already know these contestants from earlier seasons it makes it even easier. Also note, that weak is relative in that they are generally weaker than the rest of their tribe, but not necessarily weak in general. People like Jenna M, and Shii Ann (who are part of likely the strongest male team) are certainly candidates if their team is first to TC. On the other tribes its a bit more tricky but I would suggest comparated to the rest of their team Rudy and Tina would be considered the weaker, and Amber, Susan, or even Rob C would be fit the bill on the final tribe. Old This likely will not factor into the equation as much since the old contestants have proven they are players. Still Rudy, Tina, Kathy, Tom and even Rich might find themselves early evictees if they do not prove the years since their first appearance has not been kind to them. Obnoxious Being obnoxious (or at least not being a team player) has actually been the reason for most first boots over the past several seasons. Certainly a case can be made about anyone here that they could be obnoxious at times, but the clear front runners in the catagory based on the previous seasons would have to be Susan and Jerri with potential additions Kathy, Shii Ann, Rudy, and Rob M. Barring a jealousy boot to remove past winners/"stars", I would expect the early boot candidates from each tribe will likely be: Jenna M (weak) or Shii Ann (weak/obnoxious) from the Green Tribe Jerri (obnoxious) or Rudy (old) from the Blue Tribe Susan (obnoxious) or Rob M (obnoxious) from the Red Tribe After the initial 2-3 boots though, I expect how the peeps interact and what makeshift alliances they can muster will rule the game... should be a fun ride! -ICB
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KeithFan 7422 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-21-03, 09:19 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
Green Team- Dicque..at least 4 of the team would like to think they are better than him.Blue Team- Jerri (please)! I can't see Rupert or Rudy putting up with her and they are the natural leaders of the tribe. Red Team- Why do I get the felling that Sue and Big Tom will mix as well as oil and water? I see a Rob's alliance along with Alicia for physical ability...Susan's days will be numbered. Have we decided this is the cast? 
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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12-21-03, 11:10 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-21-03 AT 11:12 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 12-21-03 AT 11:12 PM (EST) Blue Team- Jerri (please)! I can't see Rupert or Rudy putting up with her and they are the natural leaders of the tribe. Rudy a natural leader on this tribe? Seriously, did you see S1? Rudy did absolutely nothing but cook and he wasn't very good at that. Rudy rarely spoke. He alientated most of the Pagong tribe after the merge. Kelly didn't like him either. In fact, no one outside of the Tagi alliance cared much for the Rude man. During his career, no doubt he was an effective military leader. Survivor isn't the military. Sorry, but if I had to spend time with this guy 24/7, I'm probably with Stacey. How about this? I can't see Jerri putting up with Rudy's sexist crap. As for Ethan, would love to hear Rudy's take on Jews. He'll probably dismiss Rupe as a hippie freak. We all know his feelings about single parents so I guess Jenna1 won't be feeling any love from Rudy either. All he's gonna have is Tina and that's not a lot on this tribe. Unless the others decide there are bigger fish to fry (like Tina or Ethan), Rudy is in big trouble. Of course, I could be way off...which wouldn't be the first time.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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12-22-03, 00:39 AM (EST)
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10. "Rudy" |
Munson, have to agree with you again...sorry RudyRules, but it doesn't look good for your namesake.Rudy is older and doesn't have a Richard like personality to assemble an alliance that can carry him along. We have heard that the challenges will be more physically demanding and the supplemental food will be eliminated... Rudy will be considerd the weak link and fits the early boot profile in both the old and obnoxious categories. I agree with Munson that Rudy and Tina may build an early alliance, in which case, Tina may not be far behind...
Krautboy
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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12-23-03, 00:39 AM (EST)
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18. "Blue Team Boot" |
I agree with KeithFan, Rudy is likely safe early, although I think it's because of bigger fish to fry.I think the Blue Team will have an early split between Tina and Jerri. It's true, Jerri voted for Tina on the Jury, but I think this was more to spite Colby, than that she liked Tina. These two may talk a good game initially about "Let's bury the Ax", but I think both will be looking to bury the Ax in the others back. So, if the tribe is split between Tina and Jerri I think Tina has the Edge. Tina will get the support of:
Rudy - Jerri's a lot like Stacey, and Rudy disliked Stacey early.
Rupert - Jerri won't be able to keep from making fun of him.
Ethan - He will bond to an older woman (like momma Kim). Ethan will bond with Tina just like Colby did. Jerri will get the support of:
Jenna - Jenna bonded with the women her age in S1, and will probably bond with Jerri now - A Stronger replacement for Amber. It looks to me like Jerri will have the biggest target on her back from the Blue Team, and she won't have the votes to prevent being the 1st boot.
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RobinHood 5 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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01-27-04, 01:46 PM (EST)
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109. "RE: Blue Team Boot" |
I agree that the split will be Tina v Jerri but I believe that it will be in jerris favor.Rudy: Jerri's a lot like Stacey, and Rudy disliked Stacey early. Jenna: bonded with the women her age in S1, and will probably bond with Jerri Eathan: Made a bond with Big Tom last time and Rupert has some of the same qualities.
Rupert: Was fond of his strong tribe last time, and bonded with the people who were nice to him from the get go. If Jerri plays her cards right, as we know she is capable of it looks like Rudy and Tina as early boots. -----------------------------------------------------------------
Pura Vida
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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12-23-03, 11:01 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
I'm sure they'll be looking up to him...while JP is snuffing out his torch. 
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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12-21-03, 11:53 PM (EST)
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9. "Prior votes" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-22-03 AT 00:49 AM (EST)Thinking that most people can't change their spots, I think it might be of value to look at how each of the All Stars voted the first few times they went to TC and possible reasons why. (Early votes are probably of the most value to us, since this is when initial alliances are made and players decide WHO TO TRUST AND WHO TO SIDE AGAINST). With that in mind the all stars first few votes are as follows: GREEN TEAM:
Rich voted -------- 1st Stacy (unreliable) --- 2nd Stacy (unreliable) ---- 3rd Dirk (unreliable)
Colby voted ------- 1st Kel (threat) -------- 2nd Maralyn (weak) ------ 3rd Mitchell (weak)
Lex voted --------- 1st Diane (weak) ------- 2nd Jessie (weak) ------- 3rd Lindsey (Slacker)
Jenna(s6) voted --- 1st Janet (weak) ------- 2nd JoAnna (Isolated) --- 3rd Shawna (unreliable)
Shi Ann voted ----- 1st Jed (slacker) -------- 2nd Stephane (slacker) - 3rd Robb (slacker)
Kathy voted ------- 1st Sarah (slacker) ----- 2nd Gina (unreliable) ----- 3rd Zoe (unreliable)
BLUE TEAM:
Rudy voted ------- 1st Sonja (weak) ------- 2nd Stacey (unreliable) --- 3rd ---- Dirk (told to)
Jenna(S1) voted -- 1stB.B. (isolated) ------- 2nd Ramona (slacker) --- 3rd Joel (isolated)
Tina voted ------- 1st Kel (isolated) ------- 2nd Maralyn (weak) ------ 3rd Mitchell (weak)
Jerri voted ------- 1st Kel (isolated) ------- 2nd Maralyn (weak) ------ 3rd Keith (isolated)
Ethan voted ----- 1st Diane (weak) ------- 2nd Jessie (weak) -------- 3rd Silas (unreliable)
Rupert voted ----- 1st Michelle (isolated) -- 2nd Trish (threat) ------- 3rd Shawn (isolated)
RED TEAM:
Rob (S6) voted --- 1st Ryan (avoid tie) ----- 2nd Daniel (told to) ------- 3rd Shawna (told to)
Rob (S4) voted --- 1st Peter (isolated) ----- 2nd Patricia (weak) ------- 3rd Hunter (threat)
Tom voted ------- 1st Clarence(isolated) --- 2nd Clarence (isolated) --- 3rd Lindsey (slacker)
Alicia voted ------ 1st Debb (isolated) ----- 2nd Kimmi (isolated) ------- 3rd Colby (threat)
Amber voted ----- 1st Kel (isolated) ------- 2nd Maralyn (weak) ------- 3rd Keith (isolated)
Susan voted ----- 1st Sonja (weak) ------- 2nd Stacey (unreliable) ---- 3rd Dirk (unreliable)
I know some of the descriptions could be debated, but I thought I'd get it out there and see if there was any interest in considering this further.
-
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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12-23-03, 03:06 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Prior votes" |
If we're talking about early voting patterns, how about this obscure tidbit?The second castaway booted from a tribe has been a woman 10 of 11 times with the only male second boot being SkinnyRyan in the last go 'round! Yep, I didn't count Amazon's single sex tribes and Rotu never went to a second pre-merge TC. Coincidence? Probably. But some coincidence. Also, in the same eleven situations, the first two boots have been 1 male - 1 female 9 times, 2 women twice and both men - never. Interesting that both times the first two boots from a tribe have been female (Tagi and Boran), a male from that tribe has won the game. Just a couple of things that might make you go, hmmmmmm.
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Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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12-24-03, 05:53 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Prior votes" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-24-03 AT 05:56 PM (EST)Hate to burst the women voted off second bubble, but Bebe was voted off second in S1, so that makes two guys that I can think of off the top of my head. edited to make observation that I understand what you are talking about now. They are the second person voted out from a tribe, not the series... mabey I should think a little before I post... naaaahhhhhh 
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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01-03-04, 12:29 PM (EST)
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57. "RE: Jenna M." |
LAST EDITED ON 01-03-04 AT 12:32 PM (EST)>KB, if the game began on
>November 3 as reported and
>Jenna6's mother passed on Novemeber
>19, I think that covers
>about 5 TCs. While
>Jenna6 could still be the
>first to leave the Greens,
>I think it might be
>later than E2. Yeah, you're right Munson...not sure where I got the EP2 but here's the approximate calander from SNN. It confirms what you're saying about Jenna's mom passing away around EP5 not EP2...
http://survivornews.net/snn.php?sid=s8_calendar
>I guess the question remains, was
>she still in the game
>at that point or was
>she already booted?
In light of Jenna not leaving the game early for her mom's funeral, I'd say ShiAnn, in addition to Jenna, should also be considered if the Green Tribe loses an early challenge...
>Which begs another question...If she's still
>in the game, how does
>MB proceed? Do two
>players leave that week -
>Jenna6 and the TC bootee?
From her recent interview...
http://survivornews.net/news.php?id=530 ...I got the impression that she was satisfied with how the events during the game played out. She seemed content and talked about her mom's support during S6. There was no indication that she was forced to leave the game because of her mom's passing...I got the impression that she was probably already out when the time came for her to go home for the funeral...
Krautboy
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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12-23-03, 00:17 AM (EST)
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17. "Green Team Boot" |
I think the player to go 1st on the Green team will be Kathy. I still see her as being very much like S2's Debb, only luckier. The only reason Kathy went any distance at all in S4 was thru blind luck. 1) She was saved her from an early boot due to the utter collapse of Rob/Sean/Vecepia's original team.
2) She was saved from a mid game boot by the swap, when Neleh & Pappy stayed loyal to their original Tribe and booted Gina. 3) She was saved a third time when John Carroll's alliance tipped their hand too early, and the math of it required the other outsiders to join with Kathy to save their own skin. I think there are 2 types of players we can compare Kathy with. Group A) being:
Sonja, Debb, Maralyn, Diane, Patricia, Janet, Jo Anna & Lil - all early boots, all early 40's or older females, and generally in your face, bossy, weak whiners. Group B) being: Gretchen, Susan, Tina, Mamma Kim, Helen, Trish - all mid game or later boots, all early 40's or older females, and generally evenly tempered, strong non whiners. I think Kathy shares MANY MORE characteristics with group A than with Group B. So, I think it's very likely that Kathy will have a BIG, EARLY target on her back, and will likely be the 1st Green Team boot.
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NightScribe 761 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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12-31-03, 01:52 PM (EST)
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47. "RE: Green Team Boot" |
I disagree with you, Mavs, on a few points regarding Kathy. While you are correct that a few twists in the game benefitted Kathy, she was very much an agent of her own success in Survivor IV. She either won or helped win several crucial immunities, and while she had a painfully embarrassing start with Rotu, where all of her insecurities and neurosis were exposed to the tribe and to herself, her evolution during the game shows how a person can grown and learn from such exposure. See more of my commentary on personal evolution here: <http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID60/35.shtml> Mark Burnett told Kathy after Survivor IV that she would be one of the most beloved Survivors ever because the audience connected with her raw vulnerability and personal growth. By the end of the series, people who had initially disliked Kathy were her strongest champions. Tammy has been quoted in an interview praising Kathy's transformation and all of the contestants seem to really like Kathy now. On a Survivor News poll, Kathy was overwhelmingly chosen as a favorite all star. In addition, Kathy took her experience on Survivor and transformed it into a very positive Non-Profit Organization for women. This is a very different Kathy than the one we saw the first couple of weeks on Marqueses: definitely not the bossy, bitchy cry-baby. Also, Kathy is no liability physically -- she's run marathons and practices yoga and tai chi (I think). We saw her strength as an asset during challenge competitions in Marqueses, but her strength will not be seen so much as as a threat by her new tribe, especially with the likes of Colby and Lex around. I'd wager a large chunk of change that Kathy will not be an immediate target, she will not irritate her tribe, and if anything she will be an ambassador between people and tribes. If anything, Kathy is likely to be a post merge boot due to her inner strength and likable personality. 
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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01-04-04, 03:21 AM (EST)
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61. "Green Team Boot Reconsidered" |
I appreciate your comments NS, and maybe Kathy has grown as a person and as a SURVIVOR player. As you noted in your refrenced post, It must be very humbling for many of these players to see how the were portrayed to Millions of Americans. I still honestly feel sorry for Deb from S2 for the abuse I feel she unjustly endured after the show. I'll reserve judgement on the question of 'will Kathy play the game better' this time until we see a couple of episodes. Still, I think I'd like to change my pick for the early boot candidate from the Green Team. Esquires post further down makes me think Kathy is probably safe atleast for awhile because she was pretty loyal to her tribe until they quit her. With Rich, Lex, and Colby on her team (all of whom I view as having demonstrated that they place a premium on loyalty) - I think the early boot candidates for the Green Team will be the players viewed as least trustworthy. I think Shi Ann, and Jenna M, both are less trust worthy than Kathy, so I think Shi Ann and Jenna M have bigger targets on their backs than Kathy, and I think between the two, Shi Ann is the more vulnerable.
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okaloosajohn 1259 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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01-28-04, 01:49 PM (EST)
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112. "RE: Green Team Boot" |
I thought that it was Rupert who was overwhelmingly a favorite survivor of all seasons???Actually i'm pretty much sure it is! Well, the poll for favorites amongst the ASS cast over at http://www.survivornews.net/game/trends.php right now, shows Jeff Probst as the biggest favorite (7.38), followed by Kathy (7.00), Rudy (6.57), Lex (6.53), Rob C. (6.49), Alicia, (6.38), and Rupert (5.89)  
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-22-03, 12:31 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
Green tribe: Jenna M. is in trouble. Since she's a former winner, she's got a huge target on her back. The only thing that could save her is her challenge ability (as evidenced by all of the ICs that she won). With all of those strong personalites, Shii Ann might rub folks the wrong way, making her a good alternate first choice.Blue tribe: Rudy and Jerri are the two that stick out here, with Tina the third pick. Rudy may be seen as a challenge liability, while Jerri may be seen as a troublemaker. Given the other personalities in this group, I see arguments for booting either one of those, but I'll go with Jerri as the most vulnerable. Tina is the most athletic female (even though she's oldest) who will work around camp, which is why she'll be less of a target even though she is a former winner. Red tribe: Either the guys are going to be at each others' throats, or they'll quickly be tight. It all depends on whether the Robs decide to fight for Alpha Male. In any case, Alicia should be safe from a challenge strength standpoint, while Amber will be the one that all of the guys want to keep around because, well, we've seen how horny all three of them were in prior versions. So that leaves Sue Hawk as the most likely target at their first TC. I'll pick Rob C. as the alternate, because the others will tolerate the Robbfather's antics more since he's strong in non-food challenges.  I am the embodiement of snarky, sarcastic and smart. I am also the S7 Anti-Bootee co-champion!
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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12-24-03, 04:28 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
<<I think he's smarter than to try to take Rob M on head on (he'll probably see Rob M more as a Dave-type...live with him now, stab him in the back later)>>Rob C is definitely a follower until he needs to be. He won't fight for alpha-male. Too many people had to do that in Amazon, and that sucked in an all-male tribe. Roger emerged as the leader... for a while. The other males let that happen and were content with that, and were happy to boot Ryan and Daniel because they were the weak links of the male tribe. When the teams were swapped, Rob, Alex, and Matt ended up on the same team. Rob still had Matt wrapped around his finger, and they were ready to jump ship from Dave, Butch, and Roger. Plus, Rob knew he had to backstab Alex. He could have ridden coattails till F4, but then he'd only finish 4th. That's when he really took control of camp... till Matt threw the last challenge. All this to say that Rob C is likely to sit back and let Rob M be the alpha male (though I still wish that Hunter had kicked the knucklehead's butt), and, yes, C will backstab M when the time is right.
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PelicanPete 140 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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12-23-03, 09:55 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
Green Tribe- This tribe seems, to me, to be the dominant tribe of the three. This tribe consists of winners (Rich & Jenna), F3 players with the potential to have won their season (Lex, Colby, and Kathy), and a schemer that could have won if she wasn't on the wrong tribe (Shii Ann). All of them (except Shii Ann) won individual challenges during their first season so they should be ready to dominate this season as a group. Plus, most of them are schemers so it should be interesting on "Green Tribe" Beach. As far as the first boot, Shii Ann is who I think they will target becuse she is very unreliable, deceitful, and is the person who is the biggest liability at challenges. Jenna and Rich are the alternates (in that order) because the are winners and they are the weakest of the remaining 5 tribe members. G.T. Pick Off Order- (FIRST) Shii Ann, Jenna, Rich, Kathy, Lex, Colby (LAST).Blue Tribe- This tribe could be very competitive in challenges with Ethan, Rupert, and Jenna L. There are only two winners on this tribe and I think that most of the others (Rudy, Rupert, and Jerri) are jealous of the winners. But the deciding factor in the first boot will be how annoying and abrasive Rudy will be. I figure he'll be a jerk and the other dominant personalities (Jerri, Rupert) will be eager to get rid of him. Tina and Ethan will generally go along with whatever helps them and the tribe at the same time while remaining UTR. After Rudy, the others will target Tina- a winner who is weak in challenges. Rupert will bond with Ethan and Jenna. B.T. Pick Off Order- Rudy, Tina, Jerri, Ethan, Jenna, Rupert. Red Tribe- (Blood Tribe)- Rob C., Boston Rob, Finger-Waggin' Alicia, "Snake & Rat" Sue, and Big Tom- OH MY!! There is a reason that this is the red tribe. I can't wait for a blow up in this tribe to see what happens. Anyway, Sue's bad reputation since her speech will be part of the reason that she we be the easy first boot but she'll also annoy everyone in her tribe. Nobody will align with her. Rob C. will take a back seat to Boston Rob and Tom as the Alpha Males but as those two grow fonder of Alicia and Amber, Rob C. will be targeted next. R.T. Pick Off Order- Sue, Rob C., Tom, Amber, Boston Rob, Alicia. Predicted Tribal Alliances:
Green- Colby/Kathy/Jenna or Lex
Blue- Rupert/Jenna L./Ethan
Red- Alicia/Boston Rob/Tom -PP
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kelli_blue 301 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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12-23-03, 10:24 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
Personally, I'd like to see Jerri or Rich Hatch get the boot first. 
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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12-24-03, 05:25 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
Here is my analysis of the players and their tribes for ASS:
Green - Physically strong teamRich – target for winning S1, bigger target than any of the other winners. However, he knows he’s a target and will start to form alliances right away to make sure that he stays around. Colby – target for being so strong – best challenge record of anyone else playing. Not an early boot. Lex – also a strong challenge competitor. May be some friction w/Colby for “Alpha Male”, but not with Rich. Lex and Rich have the potential to make a F3 pact based on their loyalties (Rich w/Rudy, and Lex w/Tom and Ethan in their respective games). Jenna – BIG TARGET. She’s physically weak, and didn’t win physically demanding challenges. She stood on a beam, walked around a maze, and played shuffleboard? I mean, come on?! She also can’t work her sexuality on anyone except possibly Colby. Lex is married, Rich is gay, and Colby let Jerri work her sexuality as much as she wanted till he was ready to get rid of her. Colby won’t let attraction get in the way. Also, she won’t be able to form a “pretty girl” alliance. She’s in big trouble. Shii Ann – very strong mentally. She had the respect of her tribe till the merge. Had there been a real merge, she’d have played the right card by defecting, because she was high on the target list, having received votes at every TC she went to. Another thing that may have happened if they had merged and she defected would have been her revealing Brian’s 2-facedness to each of his tribemembers. Her mental game is strong, and she will do what she needs to do (aka scheme) to stay in the game. Kathy – strong all-around game. She’s a provider, she’s a hard worker, she’s a challenge winner, and she learned a TON while she was in the game. She took that knowledge with her an applied it to her life outside the game. Her and Rich will probably team up to provide a healthy amount of food on the tribe (particularly if they are in the Pearl Islands again – Rupert proved that there’s tons of food to be had if you know how to fish!) Prediction for first boot from Green - Jenna M Blue team - most likely to form a Rotu love tribe. They will probably work the best as a team.
Ethan played a good game in Africa. He said that he wanted to be the assistant coach and let Lex be the coach. That allowed Lex to take the target instead of Ethan. People would like Ethan because they could complain about Lex to him. He won’t step up to be the leader right away. Another plus for Ethan – instant alliance with Jenna L. Rudy is going to have trouble here. He’ll work hard, but he doesn’t have an instant alliance, though he does have former S1 ties w/Jenna. And he’ll be sunk if there’s another “I dunno” challenge. Rupert will move into the provider role again, and he will make the merge. He will bring in food for the tribe, and everyone will love this man, just like the fans do. He probably learned his lesson from S7 to NOT trust someone who backstabs you. If someone turns on him, he’ll give it back this time around. Jenna does have an instant alliance with Ethan and Rudy. She’s safe from getting any votes from those two, but I’m sure she’d also ditch Rudy pretty fast also if she has to. She will make the merge and DEFINITELY will not be booted early. She’s safe from getting any votes from those two, but I’m sure she’d also ditch Rudy pretty fast also. Jerri is known as the Survivor #####, but she’s learned since then. There is known tension between her and Tina, but she may get in tight with Jenna based on age. I think she’s a target for possibly the second boot, but not the first. Tina knows how to work men. Look at what she did to Colby. She got him to take him over Keith and got him to give her a million dollars that could have been his. She will probably get in tight with the guys, especially Rupert, who we know needs positive strokes. Tina will be around to the merge. Prediction for first boot from Blue - Rudy Red team - This team lacks someone who is a known provider of food. While they may ok for the first 3 days, after that they will be struggling like Morgan. Rob C is definitely a follower until he needs to be. He won't fight for alpha-male. Too many people had to do that in Amazon, and that sucked in an all-male tribe. Roger emerged as the leader... for a while. The other males let that happen and were content with that, and were happy to boot Ryan and Daniel because they were the weak links of the male tribe. Rob M will be the alpha male, which may be his undoing. He will also have to prove that he can lead a tribe, and in S4 all he proved is that he can stir the pot and boot out people stronger than him. His only hope is to form a “fluffy pillows” alliance with Amber, but Sue will call him on that one. Could be a first boot by way of S5 John. Tom is a follower, but he’ll keep everyone in stitches. He’ll be the one in this tribe that everyone loves. He’ll also have the same edginess that Sue has, so those two will have some commonalities. Even though he doesn’t have much in common with anyone besides Sue, he’ll still be that lovable Big Tom, and he’ll be around a while, probably to the merge. Alicia will be a physical powerhouse. She’ll keep the girls on her side, plus Tom and Rob C will know that she can step into the role as the second (maybe 3rd) strongest person on the tribe behind Rob (possibly Tom – Tom will be strong but he won’t be fast). She definitely makes the merge again, and probably the jury. But she’ll have to be in the right alliance at the merge to make it all the way. S2 never had any alliance swapping, but if she’s watched subsequent seasons, she’ll have to know that you have make an alliance for one TC at a time to get farther. Amber was so quiet that it’s hard to know her game. However, that may keep her around in a tribe (and a game) full of leaders. She may play a Sandra game and throw the votes where they need to go in order to keep her around. She has the only UTR game that I can see in this game. Could be the disposable first boot, or could be a Vee-type winner. Sue will latch on to Tom pretty fast due to their age and their edginess. She’ll probably work with Alicia because she won’t worry about being a girly-girl. Sue will make it past the first boot in her tribe. Predictions for the first boot per tribe: Rob M or Amber Green – Jenna M
Blue – Rudy
Red – Rob M or Amber Predictions for making a F10 merge: Green – Kathy, Rich
Blue – Rupert, Ethan
Red – Tom, Sue Additional possibilities (but I’m not so sure on) Green – Colby, Lex
Blue – Tina, Jenna
Red – Rob C, Alicia These will all be affected by the types of challenges, plus if an “Outcast” tribe gets to come back, which I think is HIGHLY likely in order to keep people like Rich, who’s target for winning S1 may keep him from going far initially (did anyone watch the “Missing Link” where the S1 players voted him off that game first just to get rid of him), in the game.
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Goooey_Alley 425 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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12-25-03, 00:13 AM (EST)
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34. "Early Targets" |
Early targets in BOLD letters
(Strategists: 3, Loud Mouths: 2, Ironguy/gal: 1, UTR: 0)
RICHARD - past winner, good target, provider
COLBY - 1st placer, good target when it comes to merge but should be kept pre-tribe for challenges
LEX - more of a strategist, can be targeted if stirred a trouble (like what happened in Kelly G.-Lex feud)
JENNA M. - past winner, might quit for personal reason (mother's death)
SHII ANN - least likely to be a target, more of an additional vote for alliances
KATHY - food provider, might clash with Richard
(Strategists: 0, Loud Mouths: 1, Ironguy/gal: 1, UTR: 4)
ETHAN - UTR but may be targeted being a past winner
RUDY - likable but a hindrance in IC
RUPERT - likable but a big threat in merge, but useful in winning challenges per tribe, food provider
JENNA L. - least likely to be a target, more of an additional vote for alliances
JERRI - full of drama, villainess, can stir a trouble
TINA - UTR but may be targeted being a past winner and might clash with Jerri
(Strategists: 2, Loud Mouths: 2, Ironguy/gal: 1, UTR: 1)
ROB C. - good strategist, not strong
ROB M. - drama guy, can stir a trouble
TOM - might be the crazy father figure of the group, might side with the boys
ALICIA - strength is asset, can be vocal sometime (Kimmi incident)
AMBER - least likely to be a target, more of an additional vote for alliances
SUSAN - villainess, might cause feud in the tribe
I'm gettin' excited!!! Hope they announce the cast earlier than January 11 and start the show earlier than February 1. I'm havin' my Survivor withdrawals. 
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ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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12-27-03, 07:45 AM (EST)
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36. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-27-03 AT 08:06 AM (EST)Smart Survivor play usually indicate that it's probably best to boot the weakest players off first and I have little doubt that it'll happen again this season. Despite having had prior knowledge about the other players and other lingering issues over past winners and rivals, most of the players in ASS are highly strategic and they'd do whatever it takes to get themselves ahead in the game. Coming into the game, most probably psyched themselves up into thinking they'll set aside personal issues and do whatever it takes to progress, so the best strategy at the start is to really just boot off the weakest players first. I think it'll be sometime before social agendas and other personal issues to start affecting the votes. The other aspect that we need to consider is how many players are booted at TC. If two players are booted, then I suppose it'll make strength a bigger issue over which players to keep. However, if only one player is booted then a tribe might decide to just keep itself from not being the weakest team of 3.
Weakest 2 players: Shii Ann, Jenna M
Safest: Colby, Lex
Boot order:
1) The Shii-devil is in deep shii+ if this tribe were to go to TC. Arguably the weakest person in the tribe, she doesn't have very much to offer in terms of helping the tribe win immunities. Her scheming nature doesn't help things much either and her tribemates may prefer keeping the less scheming Jenna M over her. Her abrasive nature may also rub people off the wrong way while Jenna's "sweetness" (hey, the S6 players said so, not me) may buy her some time. Shii Ann had better hope Jenna M be the lazy sloth she was and use that against her. Otherwise, Shii Ann can use Jenna M's ties with Rob C & Ethan and buy herself at least a second position after Jenna M on the chopping block.
2) Jenna M can't work her charms too much with this bunch of players and there isn't any pretty alliance to align with. I don't see any of these players in her tribe bonding all that well with her, and she may be a potential ship jumper and align with the Jerri Kids (the people I see her gravitate towards). She'd better work her @$$ off and follow Shii Ann wherever she goes. She wins over Shii Ann based on physical prowess alone but the win is marginal at the most and her fate in the beginning of the game'll really depend on Shii Ann's power of persuasion. Kathy is probably the strongest of the 3 women in her tribe (look at her rowing skills with Gina!) but she has the age factor coming into play. However I think she will possibly escape the first TC because of her work ethics and her arguably stronger physique than Shii Ann and Jenna M. Colby and Lex are probably safe too as their strengths are needed especially early on in the game. Richard's win will definitely be detrimental for his long term survival in the game but I think he won't be one of the first two bootees because of his strength and food gathering skills.
Weakest players: Rudy, Tina
Safest: Rupert, Ethan
Boot order:
1) I think Rudy's a goner if this tribe goes to TC early. His age will be a liability and he isn't smooth enough to persuade the other players to take him further in the game.
2) Tina may be an early boot if this tribe goes to TC early one too many times. But Tina's smooth and can probably work on Rupert and Ethan, who gravitate towards her type of personality. Jerri had better watch out for Tina.
Weakest: Susan, Amber, Rob C
Safest: Alicia
Boot order:
1) Susan will probably the first boot here. Susan may not be all that much weaker than Amber and she may be able to escape her first boot status in other tribes but definitely not in this tribe of horny men. Pretty confident that Susan'll be the first boot.
2) With the exception of this tribe (see above reason), I'll put everyone else as a likely second boot over weak Amber. The Robfather and Lecher Tom will likely find an excuse to save Amber be it their rationalization of an upcoming twist or whatnot. The next weakest person, Rob C, may be targeted, but he's a smart one so he may pull off some stunt to get himself off the hook. Most up in the air second boot amongst all the tribes. Alicia's probably the person who has the highest chance of making it to the merge.
Conclusion:
First boots: Shii Ann/Jenna M, Rudy, Susan
Second boots: Shii Ann/Jenna M, Tina/Jerri, Rob C/Tom/Rob M PS: I still think Gina deserves a spot as the sweet girl more than Amber if Liz and Colleen declined. But I suppose MB's needs some "sexual tension" in his show and Amber's the best person to do it. Poor Amber. She thought she was on ASS but she got cast in Average Joe 2 instead.
Kathy O'Brien... The Sole Survivor! (I'd rather be delusional)
Hail the purple rock! Hallelujah..... Oh glory!
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-27-03, 10:27 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
From survivornews.net we get this map showing the locations of the tribes, TC, and challenge areas:
 It looks like Rupert (Blue team) is on a different island then the one he spent the whole game of S7. (Mogo Mogo both pre and post merge) From Wezzie and Quartzeye we get: Partway through the game, the tribes merged at a new location on Isla Saboga. Click Here for the link to that site. In Survivor series of the past, every time the tribes merged and went to another tribes camp or area, it was ALWAYS to the dominant tribe for that series. (In S1 merge was at Tagi, S3 at Boran, S4 at Rotu, S5 at Chuay Gahn, S7 at Drake) The only two times that this didn't occur, the tribes merged and went to a totally new location (S2, and S6) So IF the spoiler about the merge being at the Blue tribes island, then it would make sense that at the merge the Blue tribe has dominance in the game. The other thing I have noticed by going back into the archives and looking at the maps in regard to the tribes locations and proximatey to the challenge area. Wherever there has been a BIG difference in distance from one camp to the challenge site, that tribe has lost the first IC. (S2 Ogakor wins IC, S4 Rotu, S5 Sook Jai, S6 Jabaru, and S7 Drake) In the other cases, the challenge site was approximately equidistant to both tribes. So if that pattern upholds, it would point to Blue losing the first IC. Which tribes have started off losing the first IC and then go on to becoming the dominant tribe or having the eventual winner? (S1 Tagi, S3 Boran, S4 Maraamu, S5 Chuay Gahn) With a 4-3 split there is no set pattern here other then it means a first loss isn't going to kill a tribe one way or the other. So how does all of this now compute when adding the third tribe? The Red tribe is clearly the weakest team on paper:
I can see Susan Hawk as being most vulnerable as a first boot candidate. The guys won't think she is eye candy, and she doesn't work hard enough to help overcome her grating nature. Since the teams are only 6 to start, and they all have heard about the different "twists" I doubt that a tribe would have a hankering to get rid of too much strength early, so look for Amber Brkich to be second on the chopping block. The Blue tribe seems like it could be pretty strong:
Rupert will be the provider once again, and now he does have his apprentice in Ethan (I think these two will form and instant bond). They will fish together and talk ALOT. Tina will also be apart of this group, as will Jenna, and thats all they really need is the foursome. So that leaves Rudy Boesch and Jerri Manthey as vulnerable. I see Rupe calling the shots, and he can probably relate more to Rudy then to Jerri, so I see her as the first, with Rudy close on her heels if they lose a couple off the bat. The Green tribe appears to be the strongest, though how will they work as a team? Will they start off strong and then implode?
Richard and Kathy will bond early and be the providers. Lex and Colby will also chip in and do their part, but I see Lex doing some weaseling behind the scenes, he may even be what breaks this tribe up after getting a little cocky with some early wins. Clearly the two weakest are Shii Ann Huang and Jenna Morasca I think Jenna will be the first to go from this tribe though, if for no other reason then when she finds out her mother has died. Shii Ann is crafty and might team with Lex and pull a rabbit out of her hat, it depends how the "twist" affects things, and it depends on how long they actually stay in these tribes. 
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bris 143 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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12-29-03, 01:38 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
This is what I think will happen
Red Tribe
Susan- In her season she made it clear she wants to get out the strategic people. WE know this b/c she wanted to go to the Final 3 with Kelly and Rich and then vote rich Out. So i dont think Sue will like Rob C or Rob M. I see Sue bonding with Tom and ALicia. WIth Tom, Alicia, and Sue they get AMber's 4th vote and vote off ROb C off first b/c he is the weakest.
Amber- Dont see much happening with her until the merge. I think she will bond with everyone fine. I think after they vote off Rob C. Rob M, Amber, Tom all join together and vote off Sue making Sue teh second person voted off. I think Amber is in the best posistion in this tribe just cause she knows ALicia. She was with Rob at this fundrasier and seemed to be freindly. She will bond with Big Tom, and Rob M. and i think Sue will like her b/c amber can be trusted
Alicia- Very Strong assest to the team. I think she will bod with Big Tom, AMber and Sue the most. Dont think we will see much of her either until the merge
TOm- I think he will stick to an allience with Alicia, Rob M, and AMber just because they are teh stongest on the tribe
Rob M- Will bond mostly with AMber and Alicia just cause Amber is a sweet girl and Alcia is a New Yorker
Rob C- Gone day three no one trusts him
Boot Order
Rob C
Sue
Tom - Alicia, AMber and Rob stick together
Rob M- Outback Girls stick together
AMber- Alicia- cant vote so they are the f2 in the tribe
*ill say my thoughts on the other 2 tribes later
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-29-03, 03:03 PM (EST)
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42. "Pre-game spec" |
Here's my projection as to the pre-game position of each player within their tribe (1 being best, 6 being worst)...Green tribe:
1. Lex – Colby has the “challenge whore” target. Rich has the “schemer” target and the “winner” target. Lex is strong enough to be needed should Colby and/or Rich bite the dust early. 2. Shii Ann – Not the shrewdest of game-players, but A) she won’t have a pre-game target on her and B) she isn’t likely to make noise with this group. She could slip through, a la Sandra. 3. Colby – He is the strongest in the tribe, but his challenge history is legend. He could be a “Burton” boot. 4. Richard – He’s the most hated and most targeted player in the game. But he’s also pretty smart, and he’s blessed to be in a tribe with others who will have targets. 5. Jenna – She’ll have the “winner” target as well, and she isn’t the schemer that Rich is. She also isn’t an obvious challenge or camp asset. She can be lazy and abrasive at times. 6. Kathy – She was lucky to make it as far as she did. Had her tribe gone to TC early, she would’ve been the first one to go. She may butt heads early with the group. Her best chance is early IC success of this tribe. Blue tribe:
1. Ethan – He’s strong enough to be needed for challenges, and is likely to reprise role as “assistant coach”. He has prior bond with Jenna L. 2. Rupert – His strength and provider status are unquestioned. It’s hard for him to avoid the target post-merge, though. 3. Jenna L. – She has a prior bond with Ethan. Her perky spirit should endear her to Rupert. Game-playing skills are lacking, though. 4. Tina – She will have that “winner” target on her back. She has good politicking ability, which puts her ahead of Jerri and Rudy. 5. Jerri – Based on what we know of her, she’ll be opinionated and not the most motivated person. She is tricky, though. 6. Rudy – He was almost an early-out in S1. Not a challenge asset, not a camp asset, and an abrasive personality make him the obvious choice. Red tribe:
1. Alicia – She’s worth her weight in gold as a challenge asset as the strongest woman in the game. She has natural ally in Amber. She will win the finger-wagging fight with Sue. 2. Amber – She has a natural ally in Alicia. She’s not a drama queen. She should slip through. 3. Tom – Tom is loud, but Tom is also endearing. He also seeks the strong majority. 4. Rob C. – He has the “smartest Survivor” target, and is the weakest male in the tribe. However, he is a good player and will know not to draw early attention to himself. 5. Rob M. – He’s not as smart as he thinks he is, and he can be a jackass. The presence of Alicia makes his “brawn” expendable. He didn’t make the jury for a reason. 6. Sue – She’s opinionated, she’s a challenge liability, and she has a history of being difficult. Her mouth will get her booted early. Based on this, Rudy, Kathy, and Sue are my votes for 1st boot from their respective tribes.
 Fester
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bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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12-29-03, 03:06 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
You all have done some great work here and as usual don't have too much to add. However, all these players will have had a chance to see each other play this game. I wonder how this will effect the players getting along and in particular alliances. So I would go into this game knowing: "OK, Rob is a lier and will play the girls, Rudy this, Kathy that...". So I would try to QUICKLY establish my alliance with the right players, and lie to the wrong players, and work it from there, based on what I know about the players from history... right? I mean, if you knew then what you know now about S-7's Jon, how far does he go? You certainly doubt the dead grandma story! I think that history with point the way... and apologies if this has already been analyzed!
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-29-03, 04:07 PM (EST)
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44. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
You're correct... I fully expect to be surprised by some of these people in how they'll play it differently than what we're used to seeing from them in the past. Don't forget, too, that MB can (and will) edit some of the people differently.My leading candidates to make a conscious effort to play the game differently and/or be edited in a vastly different way: Dicque, Jerri, Rupert, Lamber, RobC. Some just can't help but be the way they are (i.e. Lex, Ethan, Tom, Sue, JennaM, Rudy) that we'll see more of the same from them.
 
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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12-30-03, 05:31 PM (EST)
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46. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
While I tend to agree with your assessment, Pepe, I think we'll see those who were successful with a strategy the first time around (Rudy, Lex, Ethan, Tina, etc.) stick with a similiar strategy for ASS. Those who failed (Rupert, Jerri, Jenna1, Rob4, etc.) will be more likely to employ a different startegy. Lessons learned and all...Ultimately, I think we'll see a more conservative game than we did in the Amazon and the Pearl Islands. Because these players are already well known, both to the audience and each other, and the risk of failure greater (2 time loser, getting played for a fool, underestimating an opponent when they should know better, etc.), they'll play it closer to the vest and make the safe, but smart, move.
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Estee 57126 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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01-02-04, 02:58 PM (EST)
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52. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
Hmmm.Okay. As always, any resemblance to the way things actually wind up going requires a major breakdown in reality. On the Soylent Team: Richard: Sentients and gentlebeings, The Human Target. Should be interesting for him on the first day. 'Here you go, Richard. The fishing spear's all yours. Now, I'm just going to follow you out there and watch how you use it. Make sure you get some extras for later, because it'll take me a while to get up to your pace after Tribal Council. And by the way, you get first choice of whatever you bring up. Call it an early going-away present.' Richard's greatest early strength is the environment. If this was a landlocked run, with no chance for him to demonstrate his skills, he'd stand a good chance at being gone in the first TC. As is, I figure he'll go with his strength: get in the water and only come out to participate in challenges, sleep, and get other people voted off. He should be fine until he's merged or switched into a tribe with another provider -- or unless one of the others tries to take over the role, accompanied by a battle cry of 'We're not going to fall for that one again!' But Richard shouldn't be voted out early unless A. The tribe does find a second, equally-strong provider or B. The desire to keep him from winning overrides the desire to keep from dying. No one on the tribe is that dumb, right? Right...? Colby: He is safe. He is absolutely safe. He can basically lie down in the sand and spend his time conducting the betting pool on how long it takes for Jenna to offer up her previous winnings in exchange for insect repellant (over-under: two days), because he is wrapped in the warm arms of the Osten Fallacy: 'The strong must be protected early on, for they are the key to not losing.' Of course, there's one key difference here: Colby can actually perform. (Go ahead. Reply just to insert an inappropriate reply after that statement. It's not like I can stop you.) He will be a force in the physical challenges, he may compete with Richard for the provider role -- and -- don't underestimate this -- if luxury items are again on board, he may bring another flag, only bigger this time. Texas-sized. Sleeps six. Has anyone else ever used their luxury item to such good effect? (And a side note: why is it that everyone always worries about the strongest people being a threat in the physical challenges and completely neglects the terror of the smartest being around for the mental ones? In the future, all Survivor contestants will be weighed down and equipped with noisemakers blasting directly into their ears to make them completely average...) Lex: Someone has to be the entertainment. ('And then the sun' -- he turned to show his back '-- said to the spider --' rotated again and displayed the right tricep '-- Ananasi, if you wish to curry my favor, travel to the mountain --' chin tilted up and thrust forward '-- and bring back my gem.' His pants momentarily dropped, but only in the service of the story.) He's canny, he's wiry, and I think he's capable of learning from experience. Lex could wind up playing a Sandra strategy: be one thing to one person -- namely, the one who currently needs your vote. If anyone in the group is capable of sublimating his personality for the cause -- well, it probably won't be him. Actually, it may not be anyone. But I do think he'll take a hint from his prior fate, and make sure he's in the most comfortable place available during a crisis: someone else's pocket. Jenna M: 'And what have we learned, class?'
'We've learned being attractive is a handicap equivalent to being deaf, having the word 'model' in your resume' will forgive a fleet of sins, and that when all else fails, look cute and pout.'
'And what else?'
'It only works once.'
I've changed my mind. If anyone's going to be hit by the 'Oh, no, this one's not getting away with it again' votes, it'll be Jenna. Richard had a plan. Richard had a strategy. Richard is godfather to just about all who came after him and lasted a while. Jenna was -- There. She did a very good job at being There. She made sure you always knew she was There. And even after the series ended, you looked around and she was _still_ There. Her tribemates will make her Not Be There very early on. Perhaps not first, but soon, and for the rest of the series -- at least until the reunion show, where she'll dress to be There again. Shii Ann: It all comes down to one question: can she, at need, shut up? I'm personally glad she's there and I'm looking forward to her confessionals. But if you can't throw the little switch back to 'Stop saying everything you think' once you're out of the private grove, well... 'Hey, Shii Ann. Have a good confessional?'
'Sure did, you useless piece of neck-up meat with the mommy fetish who just couldn't bear to kick his parent substitute out of the final two.'
'...what?'
'I said it was good, eye candy. Hey, she-who-is-the-wet-dream-for-people-who-watch-special-shower-films! How's the soup coming?' ...it could be an interesting three days, and that's all it'll probably be. If Shii Ann can tone herself down, and if she's mastered the first rule of diplomacy -- 'Sincerity. Once you can fake that, the rest is easy' -- she could latch into an alliance and make the merge. If not -- well, she's not exactly in the all-time top fifty percent of challenge competitors, she's not much for providing, she's not going to play the 'Gee, I'm cute' card, and she -- talks. Not a good combination. Kathy: What's Kathy's most outstanding quality? She can learn. She spent her entire run learning. Admittedly, there were times when she didn't catch on until it was almost too late, and others where the lesson of the day needed to be rammed home, but -- she learns. And once she learns, she doesn't forget. If anyone's been sitting up with home-burned DVDs of all the seasons watching every other contestant to see what their tendencies might be -- it's Richard. Followed by Rob C. But Kathy's hiding in the curtains, watching over their shoulders, and she's taking notes. Master strategist? No. Master empath? She'll probably give that a shot. Of course, this doesn't mean she'll be any good at it. 'So when you voted for me the first time, it was --'
'Just sending you a message to elevate your work habits, since we had the majority to get rid of Shii Ann first.'
'And when you voted for me the time after that, it was --'
'My 'Tribute To Sean' night. Didn't you see me waving at the camera as we left.
'Well, I did hear you yelling 'Guess what? It's still stupid!' So -- at lunch today, when you told me you were going to vote me out?'
'Diversionary tactic so Colby doesn't catch on to our alliance.'
'Ah.' I still expect Kathy to make the merge. And if she can get in too much sun time, suffer a lot of bug bites, let her hair completely go, and basically add ten apparent years to her actual age, Colby may try to take _her_ to Final Two. It Wasn't Easy Being Green: Jenna M. or Shii Ann, leaning towards the former.
Singing the Tropical Bug Bite Blues:
Ethan: Let's see. He falls down a lot. Looked at in an absolute sense, he's competition with Jerri for the eye candy post. He's competition with Rupert for the Way Too Much Hair Club For Men post. Plus the stinging insects of the area may set up a permanent camp in his tresses. (In fact, between Ethan and Rupert, we're going to have competing ecosystems. Actually, Ethan is a competing ecosystem all by himself, because he's still carrying around a good cross-section of African wildlife with him and the locals are going to be very surprised when they try to move in and find a thriving community that lives in peace, harmony, and a growing dread of Flowbees.) So he's a probable drag in the challenges, a threat for camera time, and he brings a personal swarm everywhere he goes. Bad sign. And yet, he's absolutely safe -- because of the first six winners, he's the only one _no one_ resents. Has anyone said a bad word about Ethan since he won? Did anyone have any objections to his being cast? Are there little children in Africa saying prayers at night for him to score a second victory and bring them more soccer balls? Ethan goes into the contest with something very, very rare in Survivor: the perceived moral edge. No one's voting him off first. Who wants to effectively volunteer for stoning by soccer-deprived African schoolchildren? Also, if you don't vote for him, his symbiotic little friends won't sting you. Isn't that fair? Rudy: I've been going into this assuming that some people are capable of learning from experience. That they have thought about what they did the first time, how it worked or failed to work, and made adjustments accordingly. So, given that, let's be hypothetically direct. Hypothetical Rudy, what have you hypothetically learned? 'I dunno.' Oh. Okay. Will your strategy from your first run have any impact on your second? 'I dunno. Did you see Richard?' Err -- not lately. Why? 'He was gonna tell me who to vote for so our alliance would be in a stronger position.' But you're on different tribes. 'Doesn't mean we can't have an alliance.' Good point. So what's the plan to get you through to the merge, where you two can join up and take out everyone else? 'I dunno.' Rupert: Okay. So you have this big guy on your tribe. He catches fish by the boatload. He organizes your labor and makes sure everyone does something and no one does too much. He can apply intelligence to shelter construction. He thinks outside the box on resource gathering. He's very strong and extraordinarily determined, which makes him the biggest challenge threat since stealing the list and scribbling in your own ideas. And, most incredibly of all, he has bought, hook, line, and adjustable-rate mortgage into the whole 'tribe' idea, which means that if you can actually establish genuine bonds of friendship and loyalty with him, you will have an ally at your back for life. Plus he's learned from experience, which means that if you are not an ally at _his_ back, he will be a knife at _yours_. You've got all that -- and you're thinking of voting him out first. 'But he'll be a threat in the individual challenges!'
'No one's ever won them all. There'll be plenty of chances to vote him out. Besides, we're nowhere near the merge.'
'But he made us move the shelter from where we wanted to put it!'
'He's got previous experience living in this area, and I was never all that thrilled with waterbeds to start with.'
'But he's taken on the provider role!'
'Has he? Well, I've taken on the 'person who likes eating regularly' role.' Good luck. Jenna L: If she is to be saved, it may be through the J rule, which, in this season, states: 'There must be at least one female contestant whose name starts with J and ends with a vowel. This person will hang around for a while. The contestant should be attractive and potentially available. Ideally, Jeff must be interested in the contestant. And since we have Jenna M., who ain't gonna stick around, and Jerri, who may be the first person in recent history whose cause of torch death can be listed as 'Memory', it's going to be Jenna L. Jeff can be found in his tent from ten to midnight each evening. Come alone and bring your swimsuit.' Beyond that, she can be saved from average competition skills, not-amazingly-high-workload-beyond-the-nightmare-that-is-cleaning-up-after-kids (let's face it, people: for the parents, Survivor is a vacation), and low-provider placements by being a decent person who offends no one and can locate a nice, safe haven tucked under Rupert's broad wing. There are worse places to be. Ask Christy and Sandra. Besides, that may be the place of greatest protection from Ethan's little friends. Jerri: You _will_ believe that a woman can walk with a monkey on her back -- even when that monkey is composed of 20,000,000 sets of memories, 50,000 copies of that special _Survivor II_ collector's book, and a privately-trained parrot that occasionally moves to one of her shoulders and squawks 'Evil! Awwwwck! Evil!' for five minutes straight or until graves do give up their dead, whichever comes first. If anyone's learned from experience, it's got to be Jerri. Either she comes in as a brand-new person who regrets the mistakes of her old self and is treating the All-Stars as a personal Step 9 on her program, or it's going to be Remembrance Of Beef Jerky Past and a seventy-two hour bug bite marathon. And she'll have to work fast. 'Hi! We haven't met before, have we? I'm Jerri... what's that?'
'It's a cross.'
'I thought it was. So why are you holding it out at me like that?'
'I -- wanted you to get a good look at it. It's my luxury item. That and the garlic.'
'Oh. It's pretty. Can I hold it?'
'You can _touch_ it?' I expect Jerri to hit the beach smiling, cooperative, and ready to do whatever it takes for the tribe to succeed. She's on a three-day trial with her fellows and the entire viewing audience, and if she manages to prove her reform for that duration, she gets a nice seashell chip and an invitation to the next TC meeting, where she can once again stand up and testify as to how much she's changed. This, however, may be one of the few times where backsliding makes the sponsor(s) happy. Tina: Whatever shall we do about the second-run winner? This is what we shall do. We shall coin a new abbreviation for Tina. And what is this abbreviation, you ask? We're very glad you asked us. It is this: OTS. And what does OTS stand for, you ask? Well, certain players in this run are expected to be UTR: Under The Radar. This is because they've gotten through their prior runs by lying low as long as possible. And Tina actually won by playing things UTR. In fact, many people are expecting her to play things UTR again. However, this includes her fellow contestants. And if your fellow contestants expect you to be UTR, guess what? You're registering on their scanners. You're still flying low, of course. You're running silent. You're doing everything you can not to call attention to yourself. But in reality, all you've done is descend so low that you stop being UTR and go into OTS. You are On The Sonar. And once you're OTS, you are -- sunk. We're very glad we could clear that up for you. Is S/he Blue? You'd Be Too, When You're Bleeped goes to Rudy, with Tina a very close second. Jerri could leap into the point (this way out) position if she fails to sell her reform. Participating in The Hunt For Red January: Rob C: Introducing the first person to ever go through the first three days of a Survivor run wearing a gag. The early tribe policy towards Rob will be simple: don't let him talk. Ever. If the challenge involves calling directions to each other, he's sitting out. If the challenge involves eating, he can learn to chew with his nostrils. The instant he opens his mouth, the rings of hypnosis will start to radiate off his teeth, and from that point, everyone's doomed. Even more extreme measures may be taken by his tribemates to keep him silent. 'Come on over and say hello to your new tribe!'
'Hey, gu --'
'Grab his tongue!'
'Bind his fingers together! He may know Amslan!' Rob may actually slide under the radar early on. He's not that horrible in the physical challenges, and he's good to have around during the mental ones. And with the tribe so determined not to listen to anything he says, it'll be hard for him to offend anyone. He could make the merge just because people forget he's there. Unless he makes a major fumble in the first three days or his tribemates start getting paranoid about his toe movement, he should be fine. Rob M.: One scenario immediately comes to mind which would have this Rob out first, and it's not so much a vote-out as a mercy killing. 'Rob? We're going to get started on the shelter. Can you go scout for wood?'
'Five outs... only five outs...'
'Oh. Tom, could you lower him to the sand and flip him two vertical body lengths? We'll use him to measure out the shelter's dimensions.'
'Why does God hate us... why...?' Beyond that slightly probable vision (and my apologies to those of you in New England who are still trying to deal with your own walking dead), the Robfather may have an open forum. Everyone will be afraid to listen to Rob C. No one's worried about the Robfather. The Robfather didn't reach Final Three. The Robfather is asking people to kiss a paper ring. Sure, let him posture and strut and claim he's controlling the game. It doesn't hurt anyone short-term, it's amusing to watch, and really, he's not doing so badly in the challenges and work departments, is he? This could really, _really_ backfire on the rest of his tribe long-term. For the first three days, it's armor. Rob won't go early because no one will consider Rob to be important enough to go early. Rob will be -- UTR. (Remember what I said about any resemblance to the way things actually wind up...?) Tom: Could Tom go out in the first three days? Of course he could. He could make a remark that Alicia would find offensive, and then we'd have our second medevac airlift in series history. And if he starts on 'Protect the wimenfolk' and doesn't sell Southern charm like snake oil, then Alicia and Susan are going to take turns. Add in Rob C's amazing ability to predict which side the coin is coming down on, and there's your three votes: bring on the purple rock. The problem is that Tom seems to get forgiven for everything by virtue of being -- Tom. 'Aneywon a-u cuities wanta sit in mah lap fer a spell?'
'You know, normally, I'd take off someone's head for saying something like that.'
'Aw, shucks, I don't meen nuthin by it.'
'No -- no, you really don't, do you? Sure, sit down and lean back a little -- oooh, is that your boil coming back?' I think this tribe is going to have trouble finding a natural leader -- people afraid to listen to Rob C, figuring Rob M doesn't quite have things in hand, watching Alicia and Susan fight it out for Alpha Female, and Amber may, if closely supervised, be observed to breathe -- but in a crisis, they may turn to Tom as their wise old head, and thus try to keep him around for a while. Poor tribe. Alicia: This is pure numbers. Who do the Greens have to power them through the most physical challenges? (Keep in mind that the early ones tend to favor strength, endurance and speed over cunning, memory, and wits.) They have Colby with Lex on standby. The Blues? Rupert with Ethan riding shotgun. And the Reds? They have Alicia. And that's pretty much it. Rob M? Average male. Rob C? Average male with a lot of determination and very little actual stamina. Amber? Amber will be very good for carrying during the return of Rescue Cot. Susan? Susan will give you a ton of willpower and dominate any challenges that involve driving trucks. Tom? Tom will make for a magnificent anchor position in a few challenges, and, given the water-intensive playing field, might also be presumed to make a magnificent anchor. Alicia can, like Colby, lie back in the sand and relax a little. Unlike Colby, she can command her servitors to bring fruit, swim to the mainland and fetch her a soda, and tow back a power line so she can watch her favorite shows, because Alicia is the only hope this tribe has in the early physical challenges, and either they keep her or they learn to enjoy the sounds of the words 'Thank you for joining us!' twenty minutes after the other two tribes report to their finish mats. (Of course, she could push this status and get voted off early. But don't count on it. All hail Queen Alicia The First (And Only)!') Amber: Easiest strategy for staying in the game past the first vote in the history of the series. Pick a Rob. Any Rob. 'Did I tell you how much I admired your gameplay?'
'Yes.'
'Did I tell you how I tuned in every week just to see what you'd pull next?'
'Yes.'
'Did I tell you how sorry I was when you didn't make it to the Final Two?'
'Yes. Tell me again.' No Jerri to hide behind? No way to stay under the radar in a tribe where every member will have to pitch in that impossible 110 percent? Not all that capable of actually contributing to anything beyond the all-important Males 18-39 viewership rating? No problem! Just get a Rob of your very own, and watch all those worries float away! Because not being able to find a Rob in this situation (even if you flub slightly and wind up with a Tom) is like not being able to find water! And since you're on an island and Lil isn't with you, your safety is assured! (User may annoy non-chosen Rob (or Tom) and other females on tribe with RobFest. Annoyed tribemates may vote against user. Strategy is flammable and should not be permanently attached. Not available in stores, but Robs can be found in just about any bar user may walk into. May be redeemed for one 'Please take me along on your food reward' at any time, provided you last that long. Not a winning strategy.) Susan: No one wants Susan around at the merge. _No one_. The other tribes will be nervously glancing at the Red's mat in every challenge after this team loses Immunity, waiting to see when she goes. Why? Because if Susan's around at the merge, Susan may make the jury. And if Susan makes the jury, she's going to make someone immortal. Don't believe me? Do the words 'Let the snake eat the rat' mean anything to you? Right. No one can afford to have Susan around that long. Baring a miracle immunity challenge streak and bringing her along into the Final Two, everyone stands the chance of being at the wrong end of Susan's speechmaking abilities. And there will be a speech. Everyone expects a speech. The production staff may help Susan with her speech if she seems to be encountering simile block. One way or another, she will stand in front of twenty million people -- which will spike to thirty-five million just before she begins to talk -- and tell them all just what she thinks of the last two contestants. In detail. And possibly with metaphors. The only way out is to vote her off before she gets to the jury. And quickly, before she gathers enough material for her CBS Early Show segment to run overtime... Better Dead Than Red: Susan, although it could be Amber if she doesn't settle on a Rob quickly enough or tries to keep too many Robs (and a Tom) in the air at the same time. Having a Tom land on your head through improper juggling management could be fatal. And there you go -- my picks for first boots. Just remember: if any of this happens, the world is likely coming to an end. Consult your local listings for time and channel.
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Estee 57126 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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01-08-04, 12:00 PM (EST)
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85. "RE: Sidebar" |
LAST EDITED ON 01-08-04 AT 12:02 PM (EST)>Do you remember the name of the story you got the idea for this from? >In the future, all Survivor contestants will be weighed down and equipped with noisemakers blasting directly into their
ears to make them completely average... _Harrison Bergeron_, by Kurt Vonnegut Jr. No idea what they'd do to boost up the less-than-average contestants. Presumably Osten could have been equipped with a testosterone feed, and an implanted microphone for Lil, with an advisor waiting on the other side twenty-four/seven -- 'Not Sandra! Why not just ask if you can get Rupert back!' -- but we're still waiting on the technology that would help some of the others. (Side note to UDG: About that bit you quoted -- I'm almost entirely certain I didn't mean it the way you seem to think I meant it. I think.)
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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01-04-04, 02:55 AM (EST)
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60. "Richard Hatch alliance" |
I like your point about Richard setting up an alliance with vulnerable members. But I also think Richard set up an alliance with folks he thought he could control ie. folks who were willing to follow orders.While I still think Kathy will annoy the hell out of her alliance, I think she is someone Richard would bring into the alliance. With that in mind, I don't think ShiAnn is someone Richard would trust. She flipped on her tribe the 1st chance she got. I think Richard will form an alliance with Lex, Kathy and Colby. All 4 of them have shown a willingness to join an alliance and stick with it. (Kathy is something of an exception but, it was really more about her alliance quiting her first). My only reservation about a 4 way alliance of Rich, Lex, Colby, Kathy is that I'm not sure Colby will like having an immunity challenge threat around at the merge ie. Lex. I don't think it takes a rocket Scientist to figure out that MB will want Rich and Colby to make it to the merge, and that would explain why we have a tribe with atleast 4 people keen on loyalty on a tribe with Shi Ann. I'm changing my early boot pick from loyal, follower Kathy to disloyal, a little to clever Shi Ann.
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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01-04-04, 07:23 PM (EST)
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62. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
BUMPING so that this won't sink to the bottom when moved to the normal Survivor Spoilers forum
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MattyMax 515 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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01-06-04, 04:34 PM (EST)
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63. "Snewster" |
So First, this thread deserves a big ol' BUMP due to Snewster's revelation that the first boot is likely a man. http://www.survivornews.net/news.php?id=537So what'dya guys think? Something about that, combined with all the Richard references on his page, the creepy budweiser thing, and that richard seems to have been spotted in Patagonia, makes me think that Richard may be first boot. (much to my chagrin, I put a dollar on him when the cast first came out) But what other guys are vulnurable? Rupert- no chance. He was all bitten and burnt at the reunion. lasted more than 3 days.
Rudy +Ethan - I think that team is more likely to boot Jerri before any boys. Rudy and Ethan were all about the boy's club, which I think tina will play into. Rob C. Rob M. - both possibilities. I know that Snewster has Rob M. at the bottom of his kill list, but his boot order is always messed up.
Tom- Tom is the strongest male on the team. (was about to say member, then I saw Alicia...) Colby is a playa, I think he'll have no problem allying with a couple of girls, and The girls will like him more than Richard (I mean, if I were stuck on an island and had to get rid of Richard or Colby...). Lex is also a boys club member, but I get a feeling he'll get along with Shii Ann... although he is still a possibility. I don't think people will think Lex is an especially vital member of the team, strengthwise. It might come down to who gets to Shii first, Lex or Richard... So, maybe, Richard, Lex, or a Rob. MM (am I the only one, who after a few seasons of survivor, will NEVER name my son Robert?!?)
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-06-04, 05:17 PM (EST)
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65. "RE: First boot a man?" |
Put me down for those choices as well. Rich -- you summed it up exactly. Rudy -- if the Blue team manages to lose the very first challenge, they'll get nervous and dump the old guy. (Though...the Survivometer says there are rumors that Tina was the first Blue person voted off. If that's true, they don't go to TC in Ep 1.) Rob C -- weakest male factor combined with best-player-not-to-win factor gets him booted. 
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Brad Lascelle 26 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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01-07-04, 03:36 AM (EST)
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66. "RE: First boot a man?" |
Just a thought... but if the Blue tribe essentially vanishes on Day 13 and potentially gets 'absorbed' into the Red & Green squads, there's a strong possibility of it being down to 3 or 4 players by the time the first merge occurs.We know Jenna quits on Day 8 dropping Green down to 5... if that's the case, there's no way Green can outpace Blue if Rich gets ditched on Day 3. I'm thinking Rich goes early but NOT right away... far too much teaser material out there from Snewser about Hatch for him to get fed to the fish on SuperBowl Sunday. My money's on Rob C. getting tossed in the premiere. Followed by Tina, Jenna quitting and then Rudy. The odds of three former winners leaving All-Stars 1-2-3 right from the onset are still pretty unlikely. Victory for Hatch in my books is if he can outlast Ethan and be the surviving member of the winner's club. Don't know how likely that is as there's a strong likelihood of Ethan making jury with all his buddies on the show. == Brad Lascelle <blascelle@gto.net>
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Brad Lascelle 26 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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01-07-04, 05:01 AM (EST)
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67. "RE: First boot a man?" |
Some more speculation just for kicks...If the Blue tribe gets dissolved for Episode 5, we could see Rupert/Jerri shipped off to the Greens and Ethan/Jenna L. shipped off to the Reds (as determined via some kind of lottery, draw or tribal competition). Rupert's gleeful pride at the S7 finale would be far more justified if he was directly instrumental in Richard's demise. If Rich goes out on Day 3, big deal for Rupert... he outlasted Rich but so did 16 other Survivors. And if Jenna winds up on Team Red it would explain why she lasts until at least F6 by hooking up with other likely long-term prospects Robfather, Big Tom, Alicia and potentially Amber. (This 2nd argument is far more speculative... Jenna could easily get to that point in the game by coasting under the radar on Team Green or by forming a solid bond with Rupert... but it couldn't hurt.) == Brad Lascelle <blascelle@gto.net>
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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01-07-04, 10:44 AM (EST)
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68. "RE: First boot a man?" |
Well good morning all Some stuff I have read, some I haven't but one thing I won't set myself up with is assuming someone will get booted based on how they played the game BEFORE. There seems to be a lot of Sue Hawk should be booted very early scenarios and I'm not sure as to why. Someone playing a certain way before, I would presume (oh hell just hope) they will correct their mistakes. Sue Hawk has been on the Survivor junket for a long time and has no doubt also made a lot of friends. Simply because of what her personality was like way back on S1 doesn't jive with me. Jerri is another person who I can see changing up that Miss ##### persona. It got her loads of airtime on S2 but she wants to win this; she won't play that same card and she also has been around the reality world a long time and no doubt has made friends.Someone like Rudy however I would peg as in trouble and I DO base this on what we saw in S1. Why? Because it appears pretty obvious that man wouldn't change for ANYTHING. He is Archie Bunker of Survivor and his self reflecting of what he could do to change up his ways is about as likely as J Lo and Ben Affleck not being media whores Richard is another. He walks amongst Survivor as the elite of the elite. It is apparent in everything I have read. His status of the King of Survivor has him out of this game just for the accolades of saying we got Rich out of the game. Obviously, Ethan, Tina and Jenna (who wouldn't really count due to the death of her mother and her needing to leave the game) all may have that "they already won so let's boot em" target on their back. Their talents in socialization and skill in daily living will be very apparent if they are not tossed early. And then anyone who has a high risk of winning immunity may be kept for the team portion but kicked out immediately thereafter (i.e. Colby's, Rupert's, etc.) Obviously there are some personality traits in them that were obvious. Tom seems just like a natural lover of women, both Rob's are flirtatious, Lex and Kathy seem to be very nurturing and emotional people but we can't presume what got them ahead OR was a detriment the first time is going to happen this time. I am approaching this season with a very cautious view. Not only are these people are judging the others based on their prior status in the game as well as their existing relationships to each other but WE are judging them that way as well. This could be helpful but it could also be "dangerous" in our presumptions based on what they did in their prior show and who they were aligned with on their show or who they are friends with outside the show. Really the only thing we know for sure is physically who is an asset to their tribe and an asset in their daily living (building, food, etc.) Other than that, they all played a role to a certain extent, we don't know if that is the role they will play again.  - figures she could get away with one long winded post since she hasn't posted much pre ASS
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geg6 14941 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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01-07-04, 11:58 AM (EST)
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69. "RE: First boot a man?" |
Veruca, you are totally right to send up the caution lights. I think that many of these players have had time to think about what they did right and wrong the first time around. The younger ones have grown up a bit. And, though people's basic personality traits do not change, the human dynamics in which those traits operate will have changed. I think that making too many assumptions about this game based only on what we saw them do the first time would be a mistake. I'm going to approach ASS the same way I do any other Survivor. I will watch and speculate based only on what I actually see them do.
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Brad Lascelle 26 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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01-07-04, 07:39 PM (EST)
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73. "RE: First boot a man?" |
LAST EDITED ON 01-07-04 AT 07:41 PM (EST)Yep, the Red Tribe is lacking a crucial challenge ringer (ala Rupert / Colby) and history shows that Episode 1 Immunity Challenges are always grueling and physical. The sole exception being Amazon which was an obstacle course designed around giving the women a favorable shot at outclassing the cocky men in the first act of the 'Battle Of The Sexes'. That's another strike against Rob C. I just can't fathom a team with Rupert losing to TWO tribes in a traditional Day 3 immunity challenge (to send Rudy packing if you don't buy into the Tina gets tossed first spoiler). My entire line of reasoning behind Richard surviving Episode 1 intact is the Red-Green composition of the two remaining tribes after the initial merge around Day 13. Can anyone provide an alternative explanation as to how the Blue tribe would vanish after 4 tribal councils unless they had a numbers disadvantage to Red & Green? The only possibility I'm coming up with is if Blue/Green are both down to 4 members apiece (minus Tina / Rudy / Richard / Jenna M.) and are combined into a supertribe of 8 Greens to dethrone the 6 Reds. But could the weakest tribe physically last 12 days without an elimination of some kind? Furthermore, an even distribution of Blues to each of the Red & Green tribes would mandate that Blue has 4 or 6 tribemembers left come Day 13 (we can rule out 2 because we know Jenna M. quits the game). Granted, it's not out of the question that a Rupert-led Blue tribe could go on a challenge run out of the gates but how fair would it be for them to persevere through 4 episodes and then get split in 2 for Tina & Rudy to get picked off then. So I'm thinking that Jenna's early exit due to her mom's death guarantees Richard will be around until Ep5, at least... Green needs 5 tribe members for the more plausible two-tribe merge scenario that phases out Blue to unfold. Richard is almost assuredly a pre-merge boot and likely travelled to Patagonia with the Tina-Rudy-Rob group, but that scenario could easily play out of if he's voted out 5th or 6th. Finally, I agree with Veruca. Anyone overlooking Susan or Jerri based on their 'villain' editing in their respective seasons is in for a rude awakening. The most exciting aspect of All-Stars for me is to see some of our favorite players from the past given a different editing treatment by Burnett so he can play out his ideal storyline. Maybe Ethan and Kathy will emerge as villains? Maybe Amber will show her strategic stripes? Who can say? Tentative Boot List = 1) Rob C. 2) Tina / Rudy 3) Jenna M. 4) Rudy / Tina 5) Richard 6) ?????? == Brad Lascelle <blascelle@gto.net>
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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01-07-04, 09:44 PM (EST)
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74. "Why Red and Green ?" |
>Can anyone provide
>an alternative explanation as to
>how the Blue tribe would
>vanish after 4 tribal councils
>unless they had a numbers
>disadvantage to Red & Green? Brad, the first merge is most likely a reshuffling of the remaining contestants, rather than splitting up the weakest tribe between the two strongest. The two tribes (red and green) may be selected for their camp locations or the quality of the shelters, not necessarily because of a majority of their numbers. The decision to eliminate the "blue" tribe may be made because of poor proximity to the challenge location, poor fishing, too far from the production camp, or because all the challenge stuff was already painted red and green... At the time of the first merge, JP may gather the three tribes (regardless of the numbers) and collect all the buffs. After which the remaining contestants (14?) randomly draw from 7 red and 7 green buffs to determine their new tribe members and camp location. This scenario could apply even if the blue tribe went into the merge with all 6 original members! So, just because the blue tribe color or camp location is not used for the two "reshuffled" tribes, does not necessarily mean that the blue tribe performed poorly during the first four episodes...
Krautboy
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Brad Lascelle 26 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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01-07-04, 10:03 PM (EST)
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75. "RE: Why Red and Green ?" |
A reshuffling is a plausible scenario but doesn't strike me as likely, IMO. If anything, reshuffling after 12 days wastes the absolutely killer 3-tribe alliance dynamic that we would have at work in the game at that time.The layout of the three tribes as they are right now seems very carefully thought out to ensure a strong mix of personalities and clearly defined barriers to divide the established alliances of past seasons. We've seen previous 'reshuffle' twists in 3 of the 7 past Survivor seasons... in Africa as a fresh twist, in Marquesas due to the self-destruction of Maraamu and in Amazon to get new alliances forged between the men and women. With a completely fresh three-tribe dynamic at work in All-Stars, reshuffling a deliberately shuffled deck of prior castaways seems unlikely, unnecessary and obtrusive to the natural flow of the game. == Brad Lascelle <blascelle@gto.net>
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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01-08-04, 03:56 PM (EST)
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89. "RE: Why Red and Green ?" |
LAST EDITED ON 01-08-04 AT 03:57 PM (EST)I tend to agree with Krautboy that the first "merge" will be a total reshuffling of everyone. However, if the two tribes are not going to be renamed and given new colors, I'd have to think there is a game-oriented reason why Blue gets x-ed out of the picture at that point. One possibility would be that they have the fewest tribemembers. (Aside: hmm, that would work nicely with Rob C (Red), Rudy (Blue), Jenna (Green) and Tina (Blue) as the first four exits. With Richard leaving fifth after the reshuffle? ) However, idiotcowboy's scenario below also seems plausible. Perhaps because Blue loses that specific IC, their tribe members get absorbed into the other two tribes, whose membership otherwise remains the same. In that event, tribal numbers would not come into play.
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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01-08-04, 02:35 AM (EST)
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79. "Another thought on why Red and Green" |
In a slight modification of the steal a tribe member (from last season), and the "pick" your team (from S5 and S6).The 1st and 2nd place finishers of the challenge are allowed to steal all the 3rd place teams people. This of course results in the disbandment of the 3rd team, unexpectedly and immediately shuffles alliances and tribal dynamics, exposes existing bonds, and generally reeks havoc on the game. It also would not require the 3rd place team to necessarily be at a disadvantage (peoplewise) when it happens only that they loose the wrong challenge. Heck, you could even remove out the extra players here if you wanted (ie last two people picked are summarily dismissed no TC required!). -ICB
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Griffe 40 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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01-08-04, 00:31 AM (EST)
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77. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
LAST EDITED ON 01-08-04 AT 02:23 AM (EST)Something to consider as a possible twist while the players are in 3 tribes... suggested by Ross Barnett at Sucks in this thread: http://pub207.ezboard.com/fsurvivorsucksfrm19.showMessage?topicID=1885.topic Ross is speculating that possibly in addition to winning immunity, the winning tribe would get to vote off a player from the losing tribe. The beauty of this set up is that alliances won't help anyone in the losing tribe. The set up also allows for an additional advantage to a tribe coming in 1st instead of 2nd and only having immunity.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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01-08-04, 02:20 AM (EST)
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78. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
LAST EDITED ON 01-08-04 AT 02:21 AM (EST)Hi Griffe, nice of you to stop by! The idea is an interesting one. It would also explain the apparent early demise of so many of the previous winners. If the opposing tribe voted out the bootee, the weaker players would stand a better chance of survival...
Krautboy
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geg6 14941 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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01-08-04, 08:49 AM (EST)
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81. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
What a diabolical twist this would be! It just blows the whole alliance strategy out of the water. It would explain all the strong player/early boots speculation and give perceived weaker players a leg up. This makes a lot of sense and is just the thing MB would do to completely throw them all into turmoil. Can't imagine it lasting longer than the three tribe configuration, but it surely is something I'd like to see.
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CaptainP 55 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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01-08-04, 12:18 PM (EST)
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86. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
LAST EDITED ON 01-08-04 AT 12:26 PM (EST)Hey everyone! Long-time lurker, first-time poster. I like everyone's theories. Here's one of my own based on the pre-information that we have. I think for the first half of the game, based on the events and MB's editing, Richard Hatch will be portrayed once again as "The King." His team will go on a challenge winning roll. Therefore, with the spoilers and all, at TC#1- Rob C booted. Then at TC#2- Tina/Rudy booted. The story will show Hatch reaching out to people like Jenna M and Shi-Ann, the weakest people on their tribe. Already he has an Alliance of 3, and will most likely bring in a fourth. Bingo! Hatch is already winning the All-Stars game. Where things start to crumble for Hatch is Jenna M's departure from the game. Suddenly, he loses one person in his alliance. Plus, he no longer has a decoy Winner to hide behind (Jenna M) to divert his first-place status onto. Around this time, based on the speculation, the Blue Tribe is dissolved into the other two tribes. With Rupert's boast at the S7 reunion and Ethan friends with Lex, I then see those two ending up on the Green Tribe. Up until this point, Rupert has been edited as the Good Guy leading a losing tribe and Richard as the unbeatable Bad Guy. With the two ending up in the same tribe, SS fans watching at home are now eagerly anticipating the showdown between the legends. We then see Rupert-Ethan bonding with a Lex-Colby to orchestrate Richard's ouster. And then the game continues...
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Brad Lascelle 26 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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01-08-04, 10:09 PM (EST)
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93. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
LAST EDITED ON 01-08-04 AT 10:10 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 01-08-04 AT 10:09 PM (EST) > A theory which I like is that the first place team chooses
> which tribe goes to tribal counsel. They do not have a voice
> in the voted off player - only which tribe goes to tribal
> council. Just a thought Now this is one twist suggestion I really like. I can see Green winning a couple of early challenges on the strength of Colby and Lex... just edging out Rupert and company in the early game for 1st and sending the Blues to tribal council to further weaken them while the Reds slip through 'under the radar'. Rich could direct traffic only for it come back and bite him in the ass if Rupert and another Blue tribe member (but probably not Ethan if they're trying to preserve a gender balance... but a possibility) get absorbed into Green via some kind of challenge on Day 13 WHILE having temporary immunity from the vote (ala the Outcasts in Pearl Islands). That's what a lot of people are dismissing when protesting the 'Blue gets phased into Red-Green without a reshuffle' theory... the remaining Blues, in all likelihood, would enjoy temporary immunity for one tribal council. Thus giving them a guaranteed 6 days to broker new alliances (possibly with former allies) and would instead be welcomed as a potent voting tandem to court. Rupert gets to derail 'the mastermind Richard' editing and send Rich off to Argentina as the 5th boot and is immune from the vote when it happens. 3 more people get booted, merge at 10, merge victim gets sent packing (probably Colby or Ethan) to join the Mexico City group and we have our jury and endgame scenario. Granted, this is all just wild speculation, but hey that's what we're all here for right now, right? == Brad Lascelle <blascelle@gto.net>
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CaptainP 55 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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01-09-04, 11:01 PM (EST)
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95. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
Hiya!Yeah, I tend to agree with your assumption. I think the only way that Shi Ann can last past that first set of votes pre-merge(and from all spoilers so far she does), is if the Green Tribe goes on an immunity roll. Let's look at the supposed early pre-merge boots: Rudy, Tina, Rob C, Jenna M (but she doesn't count because of her mother). While the three tribes are still in place, competition will be pretty heavy between the tribes so they'll want to keep their stronger members. Hence bye bye Tina and Rudy (sad to see him gone soon). With the Blue Tribe losing 2 members early compared to the other tribe's 1 a piece, it then makes sense that Blue merges with the other two. By that point, does the Green Tribe really need Richard around, especially if they have ole Rupert on their team now? Man, I was so hoping for Rich and Rudy to last until the merge. Oh well.
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321Jump 606 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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01-11-04, 12:44 PM (EST)
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96. "TV Guide and First Boot Speculation" |
LAST EDITED ON 01-11-04 AT 12:47 PM (EST)Many are predicting that Rob C. is going to be the first boot, based on the Patagonia spoiler, Wingedmonkeys assertion that the first boot is a male, and the TV Guide article. I have a question about the TV Guide article and what it proves. I recall that before Survivor Amazon, it was in a magazine article that we learned that Daniel did not do well in the first immunity challenge, evidence that supported him being the first boot (as it turned out, the first boot was Ryan.) From the TV Guide article, we learn that the Red Team has no fire on Day 3 and that Sue may get sick. From the article, it appears that the TV Guide reporter must have been on location on Day 3. On the team grid, TV Guide lists Rob C. as one of their favorites. Do you think they would have done so if they suspected that he was going to be the first boot? I know that TV Guide is shilling the show, but would they actually participate in disinformation? My conclusion: Rob C. is either not the first boot or he is booted for purely strategic reasons and not because he makes a mistake.
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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01-11-04, 06:23 PM (EST)
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97. "A Boy Named Sue the first boot?" |
After posting this picture in another thread, I got to thinking.
<shudder> Snewser/wingedmonkeys tells us that the first boot is male. In his Spy Report, he mentions that his source claims the F2 are a man and a woman and mentions that this is determined by using binoculars. If the same method is used for determining the sex of the first boot, couldn't a flat-chested, ball cap wearing, boxy bodied Sue be mistaken for a man from a distance? Heck, even up close it's hard to tell. Yeah, I'll save it for Bashers.... Before Snewser told us that the first boot was a male, I had Sue pegged for the boot. During the last few days we have some other speculative evidence that Sue could be in danger. --TV Guide tells us she is drinking parasitic water and eating raw shellfish and asks if she will get sick. --The vid caps of the IC show a missing Sue in the Chapera team shot and a resting tribe that appears to be waiting for her to return before they can finish the Challenge. OK, this is a bit of a stretch. --TV Guide also gives us a chummy set of Robs joking that nothing can take Sue down and speculating about a tribe of Ethan and his exes. Seems a bond has developed. Sure, it's a bit of a leap but I thought I'd throw it out, just in case. I wish we knew how Snewser's source gathered this information and how certain he is that it's accurate. I remain troubled by the fact that a tribe, after losing the very first IC, would vote out a stronger Challenge competitor and keep someone who isn't athletic, ain't too smart and is so annoying/bossy/bitchy/etc.. Rob6 came in stronger and better prepared this time around and should be a physical asset. The three tribe format does not allow them to think in terms of a standard merge scenario. Plus, with only 6 members to start, it's tougher to carry someone for startegic reasons. One more IC loss and Chapera would be in danger of not recovering and getting wiped out before even getting to the merge. Rob4 is very familiar with this scenario.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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01-12-04, 02:44 PM (EST)
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101. "Losing tribe boots one of its own" |
Since different TC scenarios have been discussed, we should note that, as Krautboy pointed out in this post, the TV Guide article says:"Soon they will compete in an immunity challenge that will force the losing tribe to give one of its members the boot." TV Guide was there for the first challenge. Can we assume that, especially because of the new three tribe set-up, JP would have reiterated the TC vote-off procedure before the challenge in front of the reporter, thus TV Guide's statement is accurate? I think so -- if the 3-tribe scenario is sprung on the cast unknowingly, there'd be no need to have an additional twist built into who goes to/votes at TC.
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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01-19-04, 07:22 PM (EST)
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103. "ChillOne says..." |
ChillOne mentions that Ethan is our probable first boot.
This info jibes with the "male 1st boot" spec. from QE and Wezz.
(And takes us away from trying to make Sue or Tina into a male.)For my own sake it gives a clue as to which "Loser Lodge Group" gets a vacation first.
It would seem that Ethan, and 3 others, go to Mexico City, first.
Then followed by the Patagonia group of Rich, Rudy, Tina and Rob6.
This indicates (maybe) that (boots 1-5):
1. Ethan
2. (fill in blank)
3. Jenna6 (went straight home)
4. (fill in blank)
5. (fill in blank) Then in some order(boots 6-9):
Rob6
Rudy
Tina
Rich
all going to Patagonia.
With one of these four, being the merge boot. Since, alot of info has come out as to the probable "final group" of survivors as well.
We might be able to fill in those blanks with some combination of the few remaining survivors who have no spoiler support:
Sue
Colby
Jerri 1st boot:
Ethan 2nd boot:
(Sue / Jerri / Colby) 3rd "boot":
Jenna6 4th boot:
(Jerri / Colby / Sue) 5th boot:
(Colby / Sue / Jerri) 
But you can call me tribe. S7ABCABP Winner
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atherella 26 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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01-21-04, 02:30 PM (EST)
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106. "RE: First Boot Speculation" |
I don't buy Ethan as first boot pick. I think he sticks around a few episodes. I think Tina goes first. The missing Tina in the picture makes it suspicious, but even Tina says in the preview videos she has a huge "target" on her. I don't know why they would choose to keep 76 year old Rudy, when they are most likely first tribe to go to TC. He is in great condition, but he is still 76 and mentions dying out there in his preview. Uh, hello. I'd keep the younger Tina and get rid of the old guy, despite his amusing tactics. But, for some reason, this tribe I don't think thinks like I do, and they boot TINA first.
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