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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
=========================================== Final Four
The women finally seem to be playing the game, so logical analysis might finally once again have a role as we reach the endgame (about #$%#$% time ladies!)
So the decision becomes do the women stick together, or does one of them defect to join Jon and attempt to force a 2-2 split vote? ...or does Jon somehow even manage to grab TWO of the three women and avoid the split vote?
Answer: Neither one seems likely. Taking the chance on a 2-2 split tie Tribal Council isn't smart gameplay, plus allying with Jon is unlikely to get the women anything they already don't have -- namely a Final 3 guarantee. Yes, they could try and ally with Jon to get a Final 2 guarantee, but A) by now, ABSOLUTELY NO ONE should have ANY faith in anything Jon says, and B) to avoid a 2-2 tie, Jon would still have to try and make Final 2 promises to TWO WOMEN, and at this point in the game, the chances of that happening are extremely unlikely. Therefore, assuming he doesn't win immunity, JON should be the first one gone. However, if JON does manage to win immunity somehow, then Jon would very likely vote for Sandra, and Sandra could easily find herself on the wrong side of a 3-0 Tribal Council vote should Jon win immunity.
FINAL FOUR BOOTEE: JON... alternately SANDRA
Final Three
Assuming Jon is gone, it's down to the three women. The final challenge is usualy an endurance challenge, with previous history suggesting women generally do better than men in the challenge, and young women having a better chance than older women. If Jon isn't gone yet, he's unlikely to win immunity. Lillian has been complaining of weakness, etc. for days, so she's unlikely to win any endurance challenge. Nor has Sandra proven herself to have any particular physical endurance capabilities. Therefore, assuming she's still in the game, DARRAH would have to be viewed as the favorite to win any such challenge. Darrah then has to choose between Lillian and Sandra in the Final 2... with the current jury considering of RyanO, Rupert, Tijuana, Christa, Burton, and Jon, the jury would have four former DRAKES and only two former MORGANS. Yes, Sandra's relationship with a couple of the former Drakes on the jury might not be great, however the fact remains Darrah only has two sure votes (Tijuana, RyanO) among the six. By contrast, taking Lillian puts the jurors in the unlikely position of awarding the million to someone who was voted out of the game, and, betrayed just about every member of the jury at one time or another (Lill betrayed the other Morgans when the tribes merged, siding with the Drake, voted for Christa and Rupert's bootings, and "betrayed" Jon and Burton during the women's mutiny.) Taking LILLIAN to the Final 2 would seem to previde more certainty of her victory.
FINAL THREE BOOTEE: SANDRA... or JON if somehow he was still around
FINAL WINNER
If the final two comes down to Lillian versus Darrah, Darrah should win easily. Additionally, Darrah would probably also win versus Sandra and Jon as well. Frankly, the only question is if Darrah can make it to the Final 2.
ULTIMATE SURVIVOR: DARRAH
RECAP
FINAL FOUR BOOTEE: JON
FINAL THREE BOOTEE: SANDRA
ULTIMATE SURVIVOR: DARRAH
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