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johndoe 13 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 12-13-03, 07:04 AM (EST) "Don't count Jon out!" LAST EDITED ON 12-13-03 AT 07:49 AM (EST) I see a lot of posts dismissing Jon's chances in a Jury vote. If by some miracle the spoilers are wrong and Jon makes F2, I think he has a real shot at winning. It is a mistake to assume that the players have the same attitude torwards Jon as most of the viewing audience. His editing has been very negative and the players left in the game are not privy to his confessionals. The only bootees to date that had really negative comments about Jon have been Andrew and Shawn, and of course they are not jury members. The suprising thing is that in their exit interviews, the current jury members were reluctant to slam him, even praising him for his tactics on several occasions, although we don't know how Rupert feels; Rupert did once say Jon reminded him of one of his "kids." Also, remember that Ryno and Darrah said nice things about Jon when voting for him at the first TC after the merge, "you seem like a cool guy but...." And Ryno called him a "good kid" in one of his post-boot interviews. Every jury member so far that has been interviewed had very negative things to say about Lil. Even sweet Tijuana made a big deal about how annoying Lil was. If you read between the lines (MB Editing), one can conclude that even though the players found Jon annoying, with the exception of Sandra, they accepted him as one of their own and liked him to some degree. I think any positive remarks made about Jon were completely edited from the show to intensify his portrail as this seasons "villian." Jon is following Rob C. advice and has had a working relationship at one time or another with everyone still in the game, with the exception of Ryno. My opinion is that Jon could beat anyone left in the game- Jon vs Sandra- Ryno - votes Jon, hates Sandra/Christa, Rupert - votes Sandra Tijuana - votes ?. Most likely Sandra. Christa - votes Sandra Burton - votes Jon Lil - votes Jon. They have bonded on their reward trips. Her anger was toward Burton and not Jon. She wanted to see Sandra go. She has no relationship with Sandra. May still view Jon as part of an alliance of 3 with Darrah. Darrah - votes ? her vote could go either way. Remember how "snatchy" she thought Sandra was. Described Jon as "a Cool guy" in TC vote. Sandra's friendship with Christa could hurt her here. Who knows how friendly Jon and her became on their reward trip. May still view Jon as part of an alliance of 3 with Lil. This one is too close to call. Sandra is perceived as Sneaky also and Jon may get points for "playing the game better." My gut says T votes Sandra, and Darrah votes Jon. Jon wins. Jon vs Lil No one can bring themselves to vote for Lil, not even Sandra. Blowout. Jon wins. Jon vs Darrah Ryno - votes Darrah Rupert - votes Jon. Darrah is lazy. He blew his stack at Jon but never wrote his name down once. Loyal to Drake. Jon played the game. Tijuana - votes Darrah Christa - votes Jon. Can't stand boring, lazy, no personality "boob job" Darrah. Loyal Drake. Jon "played the game" Burton - votes Jon Lil - votes ? Who knows, Lil could go either way. Sandra - votes ? This is going to be a tough one. We know she hates Jon, but does that mean she wouldn't vote for him? She is a strategic player like Jon, and he may get her vote because she respects his gameplay. This one is too tough to call. But Jon has a shot. Flame Away.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Don't count Jon out! paranoia 12-13-03 1    RE: Don't count Jon out! johndoe 12-13-03 2  RE: Don't count Jon out! tinybubs 12-13-03 3  RE: Don't count Jon out! Pipsqueak Le Pew 12-13-03 4    RE: Don't count Jon out! I_AM_HE 12-13-03 6        RE: Don't count Jon out! LadyT 12-13-03 7            RE: Don't count Jon out! volsfan 12-13-03 8            Darrah can't lose a jury vote TeamJoisey 12-13-03 10                RE: Darrah can't lose a jury vote volsfan 12-13-03 11                RE: Darrah can't lose a jury vote speedyforme 12-13-03 12    RE: Don't count Jon out! Loquatrix 12-13-03 9        Agree! But Jon Needs to Win Immuni... psydergrl 12-13-03 13            RE: Agree! But Jon Needs to Win Im... unklegilly 12-14-03 14  RE: Don't count Jon out! Oscirus 12-13-03 5

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paranoia 9 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 12-13-03, 07:29 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Don't count Jon out!" I was thinking about this last night. In the event that he does make it to F2, I think it all depends on how he presents himself to the jury. He needs to show a different face. He might want to open with a brief summary of his strategy, possibly explain why he made some of his more outrageous moves and demonstrate how he thinks those moves advanced him in the game. He could also explain how he thinks he out-played his final opponent. This could establish him as a strategist, and a fairly good one at that. He might want to apologize for some of his actions if any of the jurors seem to want apologies. I don't know that he should necessarily confess to all of his sins and individually apologize to all of his victims on the jury. That might be seen as grovelling. Although a general apology for his sometimes outrageous behavior might go over nicely, as long as he connected his behavior to his game strategy. I definitely think that he should avoid playing the grandmother card, just in case the jurors have all figured it out. Above all, he needs to make himself more likeable to the jury. Of course, he could also be a complete jackass and blow it for himself. He could start by reciting the snake parable: "...You knew what I was when you picked me up." Then again, he might just be too unlikeable.   Top

johndoe 13 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 12-13-03, 08:23 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Don't count Jon out!" I Agree, his performance in front of the Jury would be especially key for him. I also contend that he is not quite as unlikeable as he has been portrayed on the show. Then again I could be wrong. Judging from post-boot interviews, I do think Jon has been edited to show him in the worst possible light, not dificult, but he must have some redeeming qualities to have lasted this long. Am I the only one that sees a lot of similarities between Jon and Brian's editing? Does Jon have "Winner Editing?" hmmm...   Top

tinybubs 547 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-13-03, 08:46 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Don't count Jon out!" Excellent post!!! Jon is a huge threat to win it all if the spoilers are wrong. My negative opinion of him comes from his confessionals and comments during voting at TC, something the other contestants don't see. None of the booted jury members have been aware of his big lie until they saw the episode aired, and have a decent opinion of him in their interviews. I can't stand the guy, but if he makes the F2 it wouldn't surprise me if he won it.   Top

Pipsqueak Le Pew 117 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-13-03, 08:53 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Don't count Jon out!" LAST EDITED ON 12-13-03 AT 08:56 AM (EST) You've presented some real good points and I don't really have an argument with your outlook... but one thing that sticks out at me is why are they editing Jon so savagely? I think MB would never carve up a finalist so badly and then risk having the jury vote him the million dollars and having people getting SO pissed at him -- if you thought people were pissed at Jenna and/or Vee winning, just wait till Jon wins with all the editing going on for him. Even CBS canceled his watch party at the Outback in Danville, VA, because staff there told him that the only people showing up would be booing him. Ergo, Jon CANNOT be a finalist based on my interpretation of the editing. Lillian has been edited a bit negatively but we've also seen some 'sweet' and kind moments from her so there's a bit of buffering with her in comparison to Jon, so she fits the profile of a finalist much more. Ack! It seems that Daddy took over my post! Many thanks to IceCat!.................01/13/03   Top

I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-03, 04:19 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Don't count Jon out!" I agree, but what about Jenna? also, nothing positive has been said about Darrah. So I don't think Jon has no shot, but I think his BEST shot is against Darrah, with Lill a toss-up because of potential lingering resentment at the Outcasts (although I really don't think that will make much difference in the jury's minds at this point)   Top

LadyT 5567 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-03, 05:42 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Don't count Jon out!" One thing Jenna and Darrah have in common is their immunity runs. You can't take that from them. That is why their are/were still there. It garnered a lot of respect for Jenna, it might do the same for Darrah. Jon has given up more immunities and rewards when he knows he can't win. That alone shows no respect for the game. I don't see him winning if he makes F2   Top

volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-03, 05:49 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Don't count Jon out!" I agree with you Lady T in that I don't think Jon can win. However, if you were Jon...your strategy has to make you think you should be in the final two with Lil (first pick because she was an outcast and you can use that against her at the final TC) or Darrah (second pick because she is an ex-Morgan and Jon will have more Drake representives on the jury than Morgan tribemates). IMHO   Top

TeamJoisey 3558 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 12-13-03, 10:02 PM (EST) 10. "Darrah can't lose a jury vote" I'll take this a step further. Darrah might win the next IC. Can you see any of the others winning a challenge? They haven't yet. Then she probably needs to win the final IC to get into the Final 2. I don't think any of the others would choose to sit next to her in the final two if she had run off a string of IC victories. I think the jury members would award the prize to that player whose head was next on the chopping block, but ran off five IC victories to get to the finals. If Darrah gets to the finals, she will not lose. Here's why: Rupert: He will respect Darrah's IC runs, feeling that is the true way to play the game. Sandra, Jon and Lil all broke alliances with the big guy. Votes Darrah over all others. Tijuana: Votes Darrah over all others as Morgan solidarity. Ryan: Votes Darrah over all others as Morgan solidarity. And dreams about her at night. Christa: Votes for Sandra over all others, votes for Darrah over Lil. Might vote for Jon over Darrah, but might be swayed by that IC run. That's a toss-up. Burton: Votes Jon over all others. Votes for Darrah over Sandra or Lil. Darrah is the one that tipped him to the mutiny. Burton votes for Sandra over Lil. Basically, he ain't voting for Lil. Jon: Votes Darrah over all the others. He's not ever voting for Sandra. He was counting on Lil to be the good sheep and follow Burton and Jon to the final three, where they intended to gut her. She betrayed them when they were nearly there, so he's not voting for Lil. Sandra:Won't vote for Jon. For her, it's probably a toss-up between Darrah and Lil, but she would also respect the IC run. She's also down on Lil for all her whining. Lil: She felt betrayed by Jon and Burton, so she probably won't vote for Jon. Being a scoutmaster, she will be impressed by Darrah's run of IC, and may find Sandra a little pushy. She's been seen talked to Darrah more than Sandra. Of course, she's mindless, so she will vote based on what happens in the 15 minutes before she has to vote. She's probably a complete toss-up. These reality show contestants need a reality check!   Top

volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-13-03, 10:08 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Darrah can't lose a jury vote" I agree with everything you say Team...to take your analysis a little bit further...Lil was trying to convince Burton and Jon to vote out Sandra instead of Darrah because Darrah was "nicer". I think Lil is not as much a toss-up as you have her!   Top

speedyforme 228 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 12-13-03, 10:09 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Darrah can't lose a jury vote" i agree 100% EXECEPT for Ruperts vote, he will vote for Sandra regarless because she's a Drake but when i count it up, Sandra cannot beat Darrah still because Sandra will only get Rupert and Christa;s vote...and Darrah will get the rest because Jon will never vote for Sandra, Lill won't vote for Sandra and those other 2 ex-Morgans will vote for Darrah, guaranteed vicotry... too bad for my Sandra   Top

Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-13-03, 06:17 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Don't count Jon out!" >Ergo, Jon CANNOT be a finalist >based on my interpretation of >the editing. I see your point, Pip, but I would counter that it could be MB's absolute intention to give us an anti-hero as a winner this year. Given that the spoiling community has done such a spectacular job of predicting what will happen based on the outcomes of prior seasons, and how individuals were edited in prior seasons, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he decided to do something unexpected along these lines this time around. On the basis that keeping the show fresh and innovative is what keeps the franchise alive, I would love to see us given the very opposite of what we've been given in the past. It would indicate to me that they intend to keep the show going for several seasons to come, because they're confident they can keep surprising us.   Top

psydergrl 29 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 12-13-03, 10:10 PM (EST) 13. "Agree! But Jon Needs to Win Immunity To Secure His Stay." I personlly would love Jon win as I think he has played a great game. The only real mistake I see that he made was not staying behind with the women to make sure they don't form an alliance. He and Burton (who I'm glad is gone) should have been a bit wiser. I believe MB wants to give us a 'deserving' winner. peace-psydergrl   Top

unklegilly 4 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 12-14-03, 00:34 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Agree! But Jon Needs to Win Immunity To Secure His Stay." How about this strategy. If Jon is really as smart as it seems he has been to get this far he will realize the alliance between the three women will likely carry over to the next vote and he will be gone unless he produces another 'surprise'. He confesses to all three ladies the lie about his grandmother. After they all tell him he is despicable etc. he then tells them who better to go to F2 with than him. Any of the three would almost be guaranteed to win by taking him. Then Jonny Fairplay can relax and save his energy while the three ladies compete in the challenges to take him to F2. Jon meanwhile will be working on his speech to the Jury as well as his acceptance speech.   Top

Oscirus 1596 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 12-13-03, 09:47 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Don't count Jon out!" LAST EDITED ON 12-13-03 AT 09:48 AM (EST) oops my bad   Top

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