|
|
|
|
PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
attention-seekers pretending to be one big happy PG/PG13-rated family. Don't
be fooled. Trying to get everyone to agree with you is like herding cats,
but intolerance for other viewpoints is NOT welcome and respect for other
posters IS required at all times. Jump in and play, and you'll soon find out
how easy it is to fit in, but save your drama for your mama. All members are
encouraged to read the
complete guidelines.
As entertainment critic Roger
Ebert once said, "If you disagree with something I write, tell me so, argue
with me, correct me--but don't tell me to shut up. That's not the American way."
|
|
|
"Jury votes and F4 PTTE"
JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
|
12-12-03, 12:09 PM (EST)
 
  |
|
"Jury votes and F4 PTTE" |
I think it's worth discussing the end game at this point, with only a couple of days to discuss it.Here are the jurors with my thoughts on their opinions of the final 4: Ryan Likes Darrah, betrayed by Lil Rupert Likes Sandra, betrayed by Lil, hates Jon Tijuana Likes Darrah, betrayed by Lil Christa Likes Sandra, betrayed by Lil, hates Jon Burton Likes Jon, betrayed by Lil Based on this, here is how a vote would go in a 5 vote jury decision: Darrah/Lil – 5-0 Darrah/Sandra - 2-2 with Burton still up in the air Darrah/Jon – 4-1 Lil/Sandra - 0-5 Lil/Jon – 0-5 Sandra/Jon – 4-1 Darrah beats whoever she is up against except Sandra.
Sandra beats whoever she is up against except Darrah.
Lil loses in every scenario.
Jon loses in every scenario. Jon is next on the chopping block, but if he wins immunity at F4, then he moves on and one of the girls has to go. Lil would keep Darrah, possibly for her Morgan alliance, but we also know that she prefers Darrah over Sandra F4 boot – either Jon or Sandra; Lil and Darrah definitely move on. So we have F3 as either Jon, Lil, Darrah or Sandra, Lil, Darrah In either situation, Darrah has proven to be the strongest and best challenge competitor. Jon almost pulled off a win in the IC for F5, and Sandra is just not a challenge competitor. She hasn’t been part of a challenge win since the merge. Lil’s only challenge wins have been as part of a team. One was with Burton, who carried her. The other was with Darrah and Jon, and Sandra’s bad luck of having to swim on the first leg killed her team’s chance of winning. In a J/L/D F3, Darrah is the most likely winner of immunity, with Jon and outside chance. (He did come in second behind Burton for the last RC.) She will take Lil because everyone knows that she can beat Lil in F2. (Jon would do the same thing in taking Lil to F2 because he has always known he has to take an Outcast in order to have a chance.) Conclusion – Lil is DEFINITELY F2 in this case. In a S/L/D F3, Darrah is definitely the winner. Sandra is definitely NOT the winner. Darrah would take Lil (see above reasoning), and Lil would take Darrah because she likes her more than Sandra. Conclusion – Lil is DEFINITELY F2 in this case. So who do Jon and Sandra vote for, Darrah or Lil? It doesn’t really matter because Lil has backstabbed too many people to get to where she is. She betrayed the Morgans by voting off Andrew, and then Ryan (and much later T). She betrayed Rupert in her new Drake alliance. Christa voted against Lil when she was voted out, so we know that in a choice between Jon and Lil, Lil loses. And she went against her fellow Outcast Burton. Ultimately, Lil has complained about the conditions much more than Darrah has. Darrah will be perceived as being stronger mentally and physically, particularly if she wins 5 immunity challenges. Jon – Darrah
Sandra – Darrah Final conclusion – I know my arguments for how Jon and Sandra vote are weak, but rest of the reasoning is sound. My PTTE is J/S/L/D. My pick for F2 is Darrah and Lil, with Darrah winning 7-0.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
Risti 190 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
|
12-12-03, 12:22 PM (EST)
|
|
1. "RE: Jury votes and F4 PTTE" |
One thing - if T was betrayed by Lil, she was stabbed in the back by Sandra. Sandra convinced her to switch out of her alliance-which would have kept her safe that week-and then voted her off. If I were T, I'd be very upset with Sandra right now. Lil voted off her friends, and yes, ultimately her, but all and all, that vote was Sandra's fault.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
 |
speedyforme 228 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
|
12-12-03, 12:50 PM (EST)
|
|
3. "RE: Jury votes and F4 PTTE" |
oh no, that comment about Jon winning F4 immunity isn't good, cause i kno they WOULD want to get rid of Darrah BUT if Lill wants to keep her, and Darrah follows as long as it's not her, Sandra is most likely to go cause Jon may not mind boting off Sandra if it means getting further since he has a better chance at beating Lill and Darrah than Sandra....god i hope Jon doesn't win the next immunity challenge
|
|
|
Top |
| |
frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
12-12-03, 12:46 PM (EST)
|
|
2. "RE: Jury votes and F4 PTTE" |
Very good analysis, John, except I have some doubt here:Lil loses in every scenario. I don't think that "betrayed by Lil" means "won't vote for Lil." Practically everyone on the S5 jury felt betrayed by Brian, but the majority voted for him. Interestingly, the people who were *brutally* betrayed by Brian voted for him. We can't underestimate the desire for the voters to want to respect the winner. It seems to help them justify their own loss. 
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
wandacal 4018 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
|
12-12-03, 11:55 PM (EST)
|
|
23. "RE: Jury votes and F4 PTTE" |
>But yes, I agree that Lill
>is dead money. She sucks
>and everyone knows she sucks.
> Man did you ever hit that one on the head! Concur completely. If I might add, I don't think it has anything to do with her outcast status, lying, backstabbing or whatever. She's a miserable, whiney, uncool, boring ol' hag. (I know, I know... take it to Bashers, which I will). The only one who ever liked her was Skinny Ryan and that should tell you something. (OK, that was the last one, I promise!) WandaCal... who has completely enjoyed all these master posters and their eloquent styles
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
12-12-03, 01:18 PM (EST)
|
|
6. "RE: Jury votes and F4 PTTE" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-12-03 AT 01:19 PM (EST)I don't think that "betrayed by Lil" means "won't vote for Lil." Practically everyone on the S5 jury felt betrayed by Brian, but the majority voted for him. Interestingly, the people who were *brutally* betrayed by Brian voted for him. Far be it from me to actually try to predict a jury. (After all, I didn't think Jenna had a snowball's chance in Hades to beat Matt.) Still, I don't think S5 and S7 are comparible. Helen, Jan, and Ted all voted for Brian because he was the lesser of 2 evils in their minds. They all saw Clay as a no-good, shiftless, crass, hanger-on (rightly or wrongly). Had there been a more appealing option, they would've no doubt cast their vote against Brian. Darrah is simply a more appealing option than Lil. She's won immunities. She's got a positive relationship with at least 2 of the jurors (Ryan and T). And most importantly, she's not an Outcast. I think that last one is going to weigh huge with everyone except Burton. And Burton will vote Darrah for other reasons. No doubt in my mind. He can relate to her IC prowess. She was upfront with him about the Girls Alliance. And he still feels (wrongly, IMO) that Lil betrayed him. You bring up "respect". I don't know that ANY of the jurors respect the game Lil played. Jon and Burton think she was a coattail rider. Rupert felt like she lied to him. Her betrayal of Morgan led to Ryan's demise. Sandra may have respect for Lil. She's said openly that she wouldn't want to go up against her in the finals. That may all be bluster, but it's all we have to go on as to Sandra's thinking. In the end, Darrah will beat Lil by at least 6-1 (the '1' being Sandra), and probably 7-0.  Fester
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
|
12-12-03, 01:48 PM (EST)
|
|
10. "RE: Jury votes and F4 PTTE" |
you took the words right out of my mouth. Fester smart!
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
12-12-03, 01:51 PM (EST)
|
|
11. "RE: Jury votes and F4 PTTE" |
"Betrayed by" doesn't always translate into "won't vote for". But add me to the list who thinks Lil is dead money.Jon and Burton have made it abundantly clear that they don't think any of the remaining women have played the game well. But Darrah has at least won multiple immunity challenges to stay in the game. I think both of them would prefer voting for her instead of a women who in their minds they carried to that point. Add those two votes to the sure Ryan and Tijuana votes, and Darrah beats Lil no matter what Sandra, Christa, and Rupert do.  I am the embodiement of snarky, sarcastic and smart.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
Witless 84 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
|
12-13-03, 01:09 AM (EST)
|
|
26. "RE: Jury votes and F4 PTTE" |
>Sandra may have respect for
>Lil. She's said openly
>that she wouldn't want to
>go up against her in
>the finals. Well, yes, but Jon, Darrah (by agreeing with Jon), and Burton all said that they didn't want to go up against Lil in the finals. Every time it said by one, there were others nodding agreement. What Sandra said was that Lil had not made any enemies and that no one else in the game could say that. I thought that was interesting, because it means that someone out there really dislikes Darrah. Christa we know doesn't like her, but then Christa doesn't like Lil, either. She was nastier about Darrah in her interviews, but that probably doesn't mean anything. There are a lot of ways this can go: Rupert--betrayed by Lil, but thinks Darrah is lazy. He may hold Lil's lies against her, or he may vote for her out of respect for her work ethic. Rupert seems to value hard work, but he is also very bitter about being voted out. Burton--betrayed by Lil, but really wanted to see an Outcast win it all (in the beginning, anyway--of course, the Outcast he had in mind wasn't Lil). Has had nothing good to say about Darrah; also considered her lazy. But he may come to respect her for pulling an immunity run. T--certain to vote for Darrah Ryan O--dead certain to vote for Darrah Christa--an absolute toss-up. Sure, Lil voted for her, but it was Darrah who refused to go along with Sandra and Christa's plan to vote out Burton, which is what sealed Christa's doom. If she was betrayed by Lil (I don't see that, unless Lil made some promises to her that we didn't see), then she was also betrayed by Darrah. She thinks both women are boring; she made fun of Darrah. Hard to see a respect vote either way. Jon--dislikes and disdains both women. Who knows with him? He might vote for Lil to spite Darrah for slamming him down at the gross food contest; he might vote for Darrah to get back at Lil for betraying him. He might decide that he can actually respect one of them for outplaying him. Nahhhhhh. Sandra--I think Sandra is another toss-up. I can see her voting for either woman. She hasn't said much one way or another, but the few things she has said indicates that everyone loves Lil, including her, and that Darrah is lazy. But then, some people have indicated that Sandra isn't a ball of fire where work is concerned, either. And Sandra might hold Lil's alliance with Jon and Burton against her in the end, or she may respect Darrah's immunity wins. I just don't think the votes are quite as obvious as some of you do.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
12-13-03, 05:02 PM (EST)
|
|
32. "RE: Jury votes and F4 PTTE" |
agree witless.except I think Christa is more certian for Lill than T is for Darrah. T didn't have glowing remarks about D in her chat, and she may respect Lill more, despite being an outcast, which she doesn't seem to care much about anyway. Burton, Jon, and Rupert are toss-ups in my mind. Burton certainly seems irrationally angry at Lill for "breaking their alliance" though he did the same, but he also has the outcast tie, no matter how tenuous that may be at this point. So maybe slightly toward Darrah. Jon is a real toss-up. I think he will respect Lill more in the end for making the move, while he will see Darrah as just having sat there. Noone can claim she is any less a coattail rider to Burton and Jon than Lill from the Rupert boot episode on. So slightly leaning toward Lill. Rupert also a toss-up. He is certainly angry about his boot..will he end up respecting Lill for doing what she had to do to survive and for her work ethic? Or will he stay angry at her and respect Darrah's immunities, even though she did nothing else? I think in the end he'll grow up and give his vote to Lill, provided she does a decent job in front of the jury (which is certainly a question mark, but I can't see her doing any worse than Darrah) Ryan - certainly Darrah
Tijuana - probably Darrah
Burton - toss-up leaning Darrah?
Jon - toss-up, leaning Lill??
Rupert - toss-up leaning Lill???
Christa - Lillian
Sandra - Lillian this vote can go either way, but I see Lill getting at worst 2 votes, and probably at least 3. 
DMNW!!!
|
|
|
Top |
| |
Oscirus 1596 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
|
12-12-03, 01:37 PM (EST)
|
|
7. "sorry" |
If this is out of place; but I do believe that Lils ticket is punched to the finale regardless of who wins the next two immunities, if she goes up against sandra or Darrah shes already down three votes and I can see jon beating her also in a close vote. Sandra is more than likely left out in the cold due to how inept she has been at challenges I dont see her turning into superwoman at the next two challenges. I also dont see anyone picking her as a f2 opponent because if she gets there she has two automatic votes already. I dont see Darah losing another Ic with this bunch that she going up against.Jon is screwed he loses the next ic challenge hes out if he does make it to the f3 i think hed still lose to lil because hes one of those people who you dont want to face in the finals because he playedthe game so well or also i could see them also using the least deserving argument too.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
Oscirus 1596 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
|
12-13-03, 09:52 AM (EST)
|
|
28. "RE: sorry" |
o apologize for the misunderstanding but I write how Ithink and i think incoherently didnt realize that it wasa necessity to use punctuation here
|
|
|
Top |
| |
JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
|
12-12-03, 01:45 PM (EST)
|
|
9. "RE: Jury votes and F4 PTTE" |
Risti: You are right about Sandra backstabbing T. I forgot about that. That does affect one scenario. If F2 is Lil and Sandra, then the 5 jury votes would tally either still 0-5 for Sandra or 1-4, still in Sandra's favor.speedy: Here's how an F4 with Jon winning immunity would play out. Jon votes for the chick he wants to get rid of. He wants to go in the F2 w/Lil, so he keeps her. That leaves Sandra and Darrah. Sandra is NOT an immunity threat, so why not keep her? You are right. Darrah goes at F4 if Jon wins. so in a F3 of J/S/L, who wins immunity? Jon or Lil. Jon would take Lil to F2, but would Lil take Jon? She'd probably take Sandra since Jon is a worm. So if Jon wins immunity again, which is his only way to get to the end, then F2 is Jon and Lil. If Lil wins IC, then F2 is Lil and Sandra. If Sandra were to pull of a miracle IC win, then it would probably be Sandra and Jon since she seems to believe that she can't beat Lil in F2. I still don't think Lil has a chance, even though Frisky does. Frisky: I see your reasoning. However, in S5 we were dealing with Brian and Clay. Both of them betrayed equally. While this season had more backstabbing and blind-siding than ever, the backstabbing has been unequal. Lil never took an endgame into account; she only looked to getting ahead to the next 3 days. She hasn't looked at the jury at all. Sandra, Darrah, and Jon have all looked at their possibilities of winning. Sandra has Rupert and Christa in her pocket, and she knows this. She just needs 2 more votes to win. If she's against Lil, she'll get Burton's vote, and if she's against Jon, she loses Burton's vote. Against Darrah, it might be a toss-up, and Darrah might get the vote if she keeps winning immunities. She's not likely to get Ryno or T's vote if she's against Darrah, but against Lil or Jon she's definitely got their vote. Sandra could win, but she'd have to get there, and she'd have to have Lil or Jon with her. Darrah will be harder for her to beat, but I think that's one's too up in the air for me to call. Jon has played an endgame from the moment he aligned with Burton. Burton has said that he wanted Jon w/him at F2, and even if he didn't win, he thinks Jon is the only worth winner of the F4. But Jon thinks he can win by proving that his deviousness has gotten him this far and has allowed him to keep dodging bullets. Point is, Jon played the game with the end always in mind. Darrah hasn't shown all of her strategy. She lucked out a number of times. She was picked to stay when Lil wanted her booted when Lil was booted the first time. Plus her winning immunity has allowed her to stay ahead of T and Christa. But she's shown hints of wanting to stay around. She played up that she was going to leave when Rupert got booted. She lined up w/Jon when the 3 of them won their reward. And she told Burton that there was a girl alliance forming. So she has some strategy going. She definitely has more strategy than Lil, so she'd definitely win against Lil. EMRB: "We can't underestimate the desire for the voters to want to respect the winner. It seems to help them justify their own loss." "after Christy voted for Jenna, I don't think we can ever be 100% sure of how a juror will cast their final vote." Valid points. However, whether or not Lil can win the game is just a no brainer at this point. She hasn't played a strategic game; she played a coattail game. If the game is about respect, then who really has respect for her game? As Jsanb said, she can try playing the "I'm a hard worker" card, but that didn't work for Matt, and it won't work for the Eagle Scout either.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
speedyforme 228 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
|
12-12-03, 02:10 PM (EST)
|
|
12. "RE: Jury votes and F4 PTTE" |
hm...i still belive Sandra goes if Jon wins immunity, YES Darrah is a immunity threat BUT i think Lill made it clear she will take Darrah to fonal 2 with her, she preferred voting out Sandra first regardless and now prob doesn't think Jon deserves it...so if Jon wins immunity, Lill will vote for Sandra, Darrah will vote for Sandra...that leave Jon and Sandra which i think sooner or later, Jon will vote for Sandra for the sake of not going up against her either in final 2 knowing Sandra may have more friends on the other side than Jon...
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
|
Ra_8secs 1081 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
|
12-12-03, 04:33 PM (EST)
 |
|
19. "RE: Jury votes and F4 PTTE" |
Let's see if I've I can chart all this stuff out. We tend to agree that Darrah and Jon have advantages for winning the ICs, so those rows should carry more probability weight. Here's my expected boot vote by the four depending on who wins IC: | IC Winner | Darrah | Jon | Lillian | Sandra | Bootee | | Darrah | J/S | S | S | J | S or J/S tie | | Jon | S | D | S | D | D/S tie | | Lillian | J | D | J | J | J | | Sandra | J | D | J | J | J |
Wondering about Jon's ability to hypnotize on the tie votes, and how Sandra balances the IC-threat at F3 v. hate for Jon. Here's my expected boot vote for the four possible F3 combinations depending on who wins IC. | IC Winner | Darrah | Jon | Lillian | Final 2 | Winner | | Darrah | J | | | DL | D | | Jon | | D | | JL | J | | Lillian | | | J | DL | D |
| IC Winner | Darrah | Lillian | Sandra | Final 2 | Winner | | Darrah | S | | | DL | D | | Lillian | | S | | DL | D | | Sandra | | | D | LS | S |
The less likely scenarios, considering our expected F2 spoiling: | IC Winner | Darrah | Jon | Sandra | Final 2 | Winner | | Darrah | J | | | DS | D | | Jon | | D | | JS | S | | Sandra | | | D | JS | S |
| IC Winner | Jon | Lillian | Sandra | Final 2 | Winner | | Jon | S | | | JL | J | | Lillian | | S | | JL | J | | Sandra | | | J | LS | S |
 I am opposed to millionaires, but it would be dangerous to offer me the position. -- Mark Twain
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
12-13-03, 04:43 PM (EST)
|
|
31. "RE: Jury votes and F4 PTTE" |
I_AM_HE's take on the final 4(I haven't read anyone else's so apologies if someone else has already outlined the same) At the final 4, there is either a challenge or vote, or two, that eliminates two people at once or in quick successiuon. This fulfills Jiffy's cryptic "ain't nobody playing for third" as two players end up pretty much in 4th. These players will be Darrah and Lillian. Which fulfills the "final 3" spoiler of a bearded man (Burton) and an older and younger woman (Lillian and Darrah, as is assumed). Since the two arrive at Loser Lodge at the same time, and since 16 people will have come to LL (although Burton and Lill twice), it will look like Lill and Darrah are the Final 2. However, we still have 2 left thanks to the Outcast twist. This also potentially fulfill's Flowerpower's spoiler of Lill burning her foot and getting booted third, if she goes just slightly after Darrah. If they are on teams and Darrah/Lill are together, or Lill just regrets her alliance with Darrah which led to her boot, this could be a twisted fulfillment of King Oscar's report that Lillian chose the wrong person. alternately, S/J may decide that D/L are unbreakable, and be willing to force a tie and a purple rock, realizing that it's either both of them or neither in the F2, and there's no real difference between 4th and 3rd. Assuming a Fallen Comrades challenge at F4, Sandra or Lill wins, and Darrah loses the tie-break at F4 vote, and Jon or Sandra take the other at F3. So, 4th (and 3rd): Darrah and Lillian Jon and Sandra are in the F2. The jury votes go something like this:
Ryan: Jon*
Rupert: Sandra
Tijuana: Sandra*
Christa: Sandra
Burton: Jon
Darrah: Jon*
Lillian: Sandra* * = toss-up vote. 2-2, so I'll give Sandra a 4-3 win, assuming they split. Ryan doesn't seem to mind Jon, so I gave his vote to J. Tijuana could see Sandra as betraying her, but she could say the same about Jon, since he went and told C/S that she had told him, plus she really hates Jon, so I gave her vote to Sandra.
Darrah may see Sandra breaking their F3 alliance, if Sandra flip-flopping at F4 to force a tie, or 3-1 with Lill, but she may also see Jon as betraying their F4 alliance. Plus she was the one that seemed most irrationally angry at Sandra for the tarp and the one most likely to stupidly hold that against her after so long a time. I don't see her using much reasoning for her vote anyway she casts it though, so who knows. I'll say Jon
Lillian same as Darrah, but I think she is more hurt at Burton and Jon than she will be with Sandra, even though that came later. So I'll give her vote to Sandra.
Finally, the irony of Jon's statements comes true, not only was Sandra in the F4, but he doesn't have that million to say Sandra doesn't win; she does.
The whole show, even throughout Rupertmania and Darrah's IC stomp has been about Jon and Sandra's relationship, and I have a very strong feeling it will end on it. Fin.
DMNW!!!
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
|
|
Email this topic to a friend
Printer-friendly version of this topic
Bookmark this topic (Registered users only)
