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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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Once again, sorry for the late posting, but again, there's nothing earth-shattering here...

Reward Challenge

Given the vidcaps, it looks some kinda water/land combo challenge that possibly involves teams of three and a plane ride and spa stay as the prize... but do all three win, or is that just a first-round competition? Who knows, but given the "guy in silk pajamas" mention in the episode description, Jon seems to be as likely a winner/troublemaker as anyone.

REWARD CHALLENGE WINNER: JON

Immunity Challenge

OK... appears to involve shooting rifles at targets of some type... which given their backgrounds, would seem to make Sandra (Army background) and Burton (family owns a ranch in Texas) the favorites. Maybe Burton won't win for a change... but after thinking about it a bit, I'm not going to bet against him at this point -- especially Sandra doesn't exactly seem to have extensive combat training (working in the mailroom, etc.)

IMMUNITY CHALLENGE WINNER: BURTON

Bootee

BOOTEE: CHRISTA... with BURTON as the alternate

For a summary of the boot logic, read sleeeve's below analysis

Summary of Bootee Reasoning

(courtesy of sleeeve)

Frankly, given that Christa took the blame for the fish in the grass, I figure that will be her downfall (a fate that rightfully belongs to Sandra).

Given the choice between a 4-person alliance with J/B//C/S and a three person alliance with J/B/L, it is clear that Jon and Burton will choose to stay allied with Lill. The previews suggest that a female alliance may take control. How many times have we seen previews suggest this when it never came CLOSE to happening? One too many for me to fall for it again... There is NO C/S/D alliance

Lill will report to Burton that she was approached by C/S and asked about forming a female alliance. J/B will use this to justify breaking their tentative alliance with the Drake women.

Worst case scenario, we have a tie between Burton and Christa if Darrah agrees to vote with the women. It seems more likely that Darrah will be pissed that C/S abandoned she and T, and will vote against Christa as payback.

Long Term Outlook / Constestant Strategy:

Christa and Sandra have two alliances to choose from... a 4-way alliance of women or a 4-way alliance with J/B. Given their past history with J/B, they will try to form the women's alliance. This will be used to justify J/B voting for Christa. Next week, Sandra will regroup and try once again to form a women's alliance. There will be no next week for Christa.

Jon and Burton have two alliances to choose from... a four-way alliance with C/S and a three-way alliance with Lill. In the long run, they are safer with Lill (3-2 advantage next TC, 3-1 the following TC, 2-1 the final TC), but they risk a 3-3 tie this week if they go with Lill over Christa and Sandra. Given that J/B have had no problem lying in the past, expect them to try to maintain both alliances in order to split the vote 4-2 between Christa and Darrah. After this week, they believe that they have everything set up for the final two... assuming that Lill doesn't jump ship next week and turn the tables on them.

Darrah has little choice this week. She will be given the choice between voting with a four-person alliance of women against Burton (or Jon) or voting with a four-person alliance with J/B/L against Christa (or Sandra). She may be slightly more inclined to stick with J/B/L given the fact that C/S betrayed her last week. Since we expect her to be approached by two separate alliances each claiming that they will have the 4-2 advantage, her decision will depend largely on what Lillian chooses to do, so she will defer to that decision. Next week, Darrah becomes the swing vote no matter which alliance triumphs this week... assuming Lillian realized that she is doomed to take third place if she sticks with her current alliance. Look for Darrah to strike new deals which will cement her position in the final three and possibly the final two.

Lillian is the swing vote this week, and she knows it. She can choose to ally with C/S and vote out her "secret ally" Burton, or she can choose to ally with J/B and vote out Christa, who she believes dumped the fish. Before making this crucial decision, Lillian will check one last time with ally Burton to make sure that she is still his partner for the final two. We have seen this conversation in the previews... it does not go well, and this is what makes her a swing vote (if he had just lied and promised her a spot in the final two, J/B would be home free as outlined above). No matter what happens this week, Lillian will be left in a tribe with one strong 2-person alliance (J/B or C/S) and with Darrah. Given Burton's reluctance to commit and Lillian and Darrah's current precarious place in the game, look for her to try to strike up a deal with Darrah. Keeping Burton in the game leaves Lillian the option of being third in a 3-person alliance of J/B/L (in which case she would NEED immunity), or in the worst case scenario third in a three-person alliance of S/D/L in which case she would have a slightly greater chance of winning immunity. If she votes out Burton, she would probably fall fourth in a 4-woman alliance, or in the best case scenario, would be in a chaotic alliance with J/D/L... and that's if she's lucky! Obviously Lill's best bet is to hedge her bets now by keeping current ally Burton around while looking for a potential new alliance with Darrah. Next week, look for Lillian to give Burton one last chance to declare his loyalty. If he does not, Lillian will jump ship and join the women's alliance (and if she's played her cards right with Darrah before this week's vote she will assure herself a spot in the final two alongside Darrah, barring immunity upsets). Given Sandra's hatred of Jon, Lillian may be able to hedge her bets one final time by keeping Burton around one more episode and eliminating Jon next week (giving herself a possible fall-back plan if Burton wins immunity in the final four). However, I expect the fear of a potential immunity run will outweigh Sandra's hatred of Jon, influencing them to vote for Burton (unless he wins immunity).

Bottom line:
Excluding immunity upsets, if everyone plays toward their best strategic positions at this point in the game, we should see the following:

E11: Lill recruits Darrah and votes with Burton and Jon against Christa. Christa and Sandra attempt to form a women's alliance to vote out Burton, but fail.