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"Remaining Core alliances"
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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 11:01 AM (EST)
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"Remaining Core alliances"
LAST EDITED ON 11-12-03 AT 11:49 AM (EST)

The remaining survivors can be grouped into 4 alliances.

1) Core Drake people - Christa, Sandra and Rupert
2) Core Morgan people - Ryan, Darrah and Tijuana
3) Outcasts - Lil and Burton
4) Non-core Drake person that everyone finds obnoxious

Who the people in these 4 groupings decide to allign themselves with will determine how the game plays out. No group by itself is large enough to control the game, yet. Last week, the Core Drakes, the Non-core Drake and the Outcasts alligned together to get rid of Andrew. However, if the Morgans can bring over the Outcasts and Jon (who knows everyone at Drake thinks of him as the guy they least want around), they can take controll of the game from the Core Drakes. In fact, if Darrah and Lil make it to the finals like many people believe, then it would seem that the Outcasts and Core Morgans get together at some time in the future.

I was wondering, what strategy I would pursue if I was part of any of these groups.

Core Drakes - They would want to continue to Pagong. They must keep the Outcasts with them for a few more votes. Jon is expendable with Burton and Lil on their side.

Core Morgans - They need to get the Outcasts on there side. Or they need to recognize that Jon is also disliked by Drake and convince him to join them while getting an Outcast to join them. I am not sure if Lil just hated Andrew or all of the Old Morgans, but if they get Lil back with Jon, they can regain control of the game.

Outcasts - They have more control the they realize. At least, while the old Morgans and old Drakes have almost the same number of players. They should follow the lead of Rob from the Amazon and switch alliances every week. That keeps them in control. Help the Core Morgans get rid of a Core Drake this week, so once again their votes are needed. They also could increase their power, if they are able to truely convince Jon to join them.

Jon - He has to keep convincing people his vote is important for them for him to stay around. Any alliance that he is a part of that gained enough control to get rid of one of their own would target Jon.

Personally, I expect the Core Drakes to keep their alliance together with the help of the Outcasts. Jon will be eaten before all of the Core Morgans are voted out, because he is so annoying

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Remaining Core alliances ExInterper 11-12-03 1
   RE: Remaining Core alliances esquire 11-12-03 2
       RE: Remaining Core alliances ExInterper 11-12-03 3
   RE: Remaining Core alliances Thaibeach 11-12-03 4
       RE: Remaining Core alliances mistofleas 11-12-03 5
       RE: Remaining Core alliances VerucaSalt 11-12-03 7
           RE: Remaining Core alliances Bebo 11-12-03 9
   (TDT) Rupert goes in Ep9 Cuauhtewatemoccajava 11-12-03 13
 RE: Remaining Core alliances Blow by Blow 11-12-03 6
 RE: Remaining Core alliances KObrien_fan 11-12-03 8
   RE: Remaining Core alliances VerucaSalt 11-12-03 10
   RE: Remaining Core alliances Loquatrix 11-12-03 11
       Excellent rant! Blow by Blow 11-12-03 15
       RE: Remaining Core alliances I_AM_HE 11-12-03 16
       RE: Remaining Core alliances bris 11-12-03 18
           RE: Remaining Core alliances Loquatrix 11-12-03 21
   RE: Remaining Core alliances pinay_racer 11-12-03 32
 Jon has the power JohnMc 11-12-03 12
   Outside the editing box VerucaSalt 11-12-03 14
       RE: Outside the editing box Blow by Blow 11-12-03 17
           RE: Outside the editing box Cuauhtewatemoccajava 11-12-03 19
           RE: Outside the editing box aethelstan 11-12-03 20
               RE: Outside the editing box VerucaSalt 11-12-03 22
                   jon -n- sandra badger 11-12-03 24
                       big lie? I_AM_HE 11-12-03 30
                   RE: Outside the editing box Brownroach 11-12-03 25
                       RE: Outside the editing box badger 11-12-03 28
               It's all in the editting Tiggertramp 11-12-03 26
                   RE: It's all in the editting Loquatrix 11-12-03 29
                   I don't hate Jon... udg 11-13-03 34
               RE: Outside the editing box Blow by Blow 11-12-03 27
 RE: Remaining Core alliances KeithFan 11-12-03 23
   RE: Remaining Core alliances VerucaSalt 11-12-03 31
       RE: Remaining Core alliances I_AM_HE 11-12-03 33
 Darrah is in the best position benjapol 11-13-03 35
   New alliance okaloosajohn 11-13-03 36

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ExInterper 3093 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 11:15 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
I don't quite agree with your Jon analysis: he actually may be in a good position because he is so annoying and everyone doesn't like him. If you want to sit in one of the two slots for F2, who is the one person that you want sitting beside you out of the remaining people? If it was me, I'd want Jon, so I could waltz to a million dollar check.

The only real reason I would be concerned about Jon is that if given the chance, he will turn on you. However, the Morgans seem to hate him enough not to recognize this: if they had, they would have targeted him rather than Lil as the one to force a tie last ep. They seem to be too controlled by tribal loyalties and emotional attachment to make the best decision in terms of getting far in the game.

ExI
"Let's hope Osten doesn't smoke. He might decide to quit breathing." - Jims02, Ep 7a Summary

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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 11:45 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
Although he may be useful to take to the Final 2, remember Roger from the Amazon or jerri from Africa. Contestants that are too annoying are usually eaten before the end
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ExInterper 3093 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 11:49 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
True. But Tina/Colby also had an equally disliked Keith to fall back on, not to mention an alliance of two that is stronger than anything we have seen since: they wouldn't have taken anyone but each other to the finals.

And Roger was taken out early for being bossy and chauvenistic, plus the women didn't want him on the jury. Jon's already made it that far. Besides, if they were really as annoyed with him as they say and you indicate, he'd be gone already, IMHO.

ExI
"Let's hope Osten doesn't smoke. He might decide to quit breathing." - Jims02, Ep 7a Summary

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Thaibeach 872 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 11:53 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
I agree with you, ExI - regretfully so, b/c I hate Jon and would love to see him go ASAP.

Jon is in a pretty good position. This jerk does seem to be the perfect F2 partner. Everyone hates him and the other F2 person would practically be guaranteed to win the million.

He's also willing to flipflop and backstab. Everyone hates him, but they just may need him.

Thinking back to S6 and RobC's scheming and plotting...several times he said that he was keeping Jenna around since she'd be a great F2 partner - everyone thought she was annoying, lazy, and totally out of her element, and she'd never win. Well, last time I checked, it wasn't RobC who walked away with that million.

(Now I don't seriously think Jon could win, but at this point in S6, I was saying the same thing about Jenna.)

For their own sakes - (and for the sakes of all of us who can't stand the annoying little b*st*rd) - the Balboas should be careful to not let Jon stick around too long.

Maybe if RyanO wins IC this week, Jon would be next...? I can dream, can't I?

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mistofleas 8043 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 12:14 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
Jon is in a pretty good position. This jerk does seem to be the perfect F2 partner. Everyone hates him and the other F2 person would practically be guaranteed to win the million.

That's the way I see it too. AND I believe that Jon knows it so he's playing up his annoying factor more than he might in normal life. When he uses the words "puppetmaster" I believe that's exactly what he's doing. He's manuvering himself by being annoying and trying to make sure he's taken to the F2 as the "I can win against him" bet. Then I believe that Jon thinks he can plead a good case at the F2 TC and possibily steal the million away. He won't, he couldn't but he thinks he can/will.


--wants Jon gone NOW

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 12:34 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
I hate the feeling of dread you get when you hear someone say something and it sticks with you.

Burton in his walk with Christa/Rupert about getting rid of Jon b/c he could defect to Morgan with R/C telling him but everyone hates Jon and Burton indicated that may be true but that they may have no choice but to accept him.

Right now there are three good commodities to go to a final two with and they are Lillian, Burton or Jon. A ghost may not be able to convince a jury to pick them to win and Jon is such an obnoxious jerk, it would be a lesser of any evil to vote for the other person as a winner. While Burton has to know going to the finals with Lillian is the best bet for him; he may also know that he may not always be able to shield her that far. Jon may be Burton's second hope. Sandra also has to know that of the remaining people Burton or Lillian (more so Lillian) is her best shot and also Jon due to his game playing. Finally, Jon knows a safer bet for him is to take a ghost to the final two as a convincing argument to vote for him as winner (despite his attitude) could be "accepted" if up against a ghost. Jon is a hot secondary commodity here and the ghosts are definite commodities.

I would not consider any of these people alliances in the meaning I attributed it in past if they end up "joining" up for their mutual gain. The way it looks this is going to be a bloody pirate battle with a lot of throat slitting.

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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 12:58 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
Burton in his walk with Christa/Rupert about getting rid of Jon b/c he could defect to Morgan

Foreshadowing? Jon is strategizing like crazy. He makes deals with everyone. We were shown him talking with Lil quite a bit during the last episode.

Jon is positioning himself as an ideal F2 partner with his obnoxiousness. But from his standpoint, who would be the best opponents?

More desirable F2 opponents:
- Sandra - Like Jon, her alliance shifts daily based on what suits her then, and she's already done some lying and manipulation. Jon could paint her as a follower who rode everyone else's coattails to the F2.
- Darrah/Tijuana - Jon could use tribal pride, and that a vote for him is a vote for Drake.
- Lillian - She was never a Drake, she was an Outcast. He would probably beat her handily. Even the Morgans, who can't stand him, would pick him over the former tribemate who betrayed them.

Less desirable F2 opponents:
- Rupert - Jon knows he's dead meat against Rupert and probably wouldn't even get a vote. He's said it often enough in confessionals.
- Burton - Sure, he's an Outcast, but his strength could earn respect.
- Christa - Drake counted on her strength early on when Jon was too wimpy to help them. While annoying at times (per some interviews/confessionals), she's not in his league.

Based on the updated TDT list (see other sites thread) that corresponds with an order being discussed on Sucks, I can see Jon creating an alliance of 5 with the Morgan women and Lillian to go to the endgame. That leaves him with his most desirable F2 partners, so all he'd need to do is worm his way into the F2. Instead, he gets betrayed by a woman who sees how she's been used and he ends up third.


We really do have guidelines here. Believe it or not, the Guidelines make things more fun. Really.

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Cuauhtewatemoccajava 133 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 02:03 PM (EST)
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13. "(TDT) Rupert goes in Ep9"
Seems TDT has LEARNED that Rupert is going in episode 9.

Now the question is how will Sandra and Christa fair after that.

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Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 12:25 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
Interesting analysis, but I think at this point in the game the individuals in the alliances need to start thinking strategically about their non-alliance future.

To whit - the Morgan alliance has no power unless they can get two people to vote with them. I think this is unlikely to happen. So each person in this group should be looking for a buddy in another alliance. I'm guessing RyanO is pinning his hopes to Rupert, but Rupert is too Drake-oriented to take him under his wing. I don't know who Tijuana or Darrah would try to cozy up to, but I'm guessing they try to deliver themselves as a pair to some sub-alliance (the women for example).

Regarding the Drake alliance - I think it's going to hold up for one more vote, but then their numbers will be too big to sustain (kinda like what happened when they were up 8 to 5 over Morgan). So at next week's vote we're going to see a big or small shakeup. Everyone knows Rupert has to go eventually, but I don't think Christa and Sandra will make this move yet (and it's their move to make).

Regarding the Outcasts - I don't think there's any anti-outcast sentiment that's going to make them huge targets in the weeks to come. I think everyone will see Burton's and Lill's votes as flexible and will keep lobbying them.

Regarding Jon - I think his strategy is to go far in the game but not win the mil. It's clear that he wants to make it to the final two, unfortunately, there are eight other people who want to get their as well and I don't think any of them are willing to give Jon a free ride.

So, having said all that, here are the alliance that I think remain strong:

Rupert, Christa, Sandra - but only for another week or two.

Christa, Sandra - but only until Rupert is gone, then Sandra strikes out on her own.

Burton, Lill - these two will try to protect each other as much as possible, but at some point Lill's naivete will be taken advantage of to get rid of Burton, or Burton will simply miss the f2 cut by not winning immunity. I think this is the strongest (unbreakable) alliance.

Darrah and ?? - she teams up with somebody. Maybe Burton.

Anyway, this week will be dull, next two weeks after that will be interesting, then back to dullsville.

-P

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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 12:50 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
I agree with much of what has been said in this thread so far, but I do have a slightly different way to look at things, so here is my nickel:

The next logical boot is Rhino- strongest of the remaining Morgans, Drake needs to keep up with the pagonging for 1 more week.

Drake and the outcasts will then look inside the tribe since the remaining Morgans are 2 "girls" with no II threat. Most speculate a coup on Rupert, I see Johnny Fairplay as the target. A- Because nobody can trust him B- He hasn't been loyal to anything.

That leaves the core Drakes (Rupe, Christa, Sandra), the Outcasts (Burton, Lill), and the remaining Morgan non threats (Tijuana and Darrah).

At this point we see the switch of alliance when the Outcasts and Morgans get together for a 4-3 advantage. Burton is strong and wins the II, and then they vote Rupe off.

The next inline after that is Christa, the strongest of the remaining Drakes.

After that, the strongest woman is Tijuana, so Sandra sides with Burton and Lill to oust her. This is followed up with Sandra's ousting the very next episode by a vote of Burton, Lill and Darrah.

That brings us to our F3 of a bearded man, an older lady, and a young woman. Darrah wins the stamina II and takes Lill with her to the F2 since she thinks she would beat her easier then beating Burton, and will play the "You don't want a ghost member to win the million do you" card.

Lill gets a vote from Burton, and maybe from Rupert, but I could easily see all the others on the jury voting for Darrah. Another UTR player steals the million and I walk away from another season disappointed, yet anticipating a great piece of ASS starting in February I eagerly await seeBS thursday nights once again...


(one of the few spoilers on here who got the merge last week correct )

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 01:16 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
Personally I think that only four of them have to worry the most about final two which is the reason for my statements about Burton, Lillian, Jon and Sandra. Yes I know that people like Tijuana and Darrah haven't "done" that much but in a jury's eyes, mostly Drakes, they think Jon is an ass and B/L are ghosts, period. So Darrah and Tijuana are even two people that those with more vulnerability status would probably not want to sit with at the final two.

Jon is an ass
Burton/Lil are ghosts and of the remaining
Sandra has done nothing essentially but be a majority voter, has talked some trash, no asset in physical competitions and could likely be seen as being carried b/c of her alliance AND if she does cast a vote against Rupert or Christa, she has two pissed off jury members who trusted her.

The final two is something they all think about. These four people's best bet is to go with someone in that group to the final two.

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Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 01:37 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
>Lill gets a vote from Burton,
>and maybe from Rupert, but
>I could easily see all
>the others on the jury
>voting for Darrah. Another
>UTR player steals the million
>and I walk away from
>another season disappointed, yet anticipating
>a great piece of ASS
>starting in February I eagerly
>await seeBS thursday nights once
>again...

I like your boot order, KO, and the method by which you see it playing out.

I also want to concur that I'll be seriously disappointed if you're right. As much as "flying under the radar and not drawing any attention to oneself, positive or negative" is a valid type of survival if you're an ant, I just can't get behind the humans who sneak into the final 3 of a million-dollar game by living underground and being unremarkable. I just don't have any respect for this process as a "strategy" in the same sense that I respect ballsy wheeling and dealing of the Rob C. variety, for example, and it really irks me that simply not doing anything noticeable at all can be such a key to victory in this game. It doesn't make for good TV, it doesn't feel like an expression of the American Dream in which you can succeed if you work hard enough, and it ultimately leaves us without the Winner (with a capital W) whose triumph we all want to share -- rather, we just end up with some nobody who managed not to lose by never doing anything at all.

I'm getting tired of this kind of person coming out on top. It's disappointing when people who are, to all intents and purposes, inconsequential in every way end up prevailing over people who have numerous proactive traits ("likeable" or not), just because they manage to acquire safety in numbers with other inconsequential people. Darrah and Lill are utterly inconsequential people for the purposes of playing the game, yet it's looking increasingly likely that they will be left holding the cards just because they're not making any impact at all on the other players.

I look forward to ASS with great anticipation because of the promise of an entire cast of strong personalities who will actively play the freaking game, rather than wait for it to unravel around them while they lurk ineffectually in the middle with a bovine expression of surprise that they're the last one standing (and then pretending, at F2, that this was a "strategy" rather than sheer good fortune, like that twit Jenna tried to tell us). I don't want colourless, boring people to keep winning this game just because they don't give anybody any reason to have strong feelings about them.

The point of this game should not be to fly under the radar. While that is a form of physical survival, I am certain it is not the spirit of the game nor what MB wants to give us, and I'm not surprised ASS is coming right now. MB presumably knows that another Vecepia or Jenna-type win is just going to irritate everyone, and he needs to provide us with an actual game that is actually played by the cast -- pronto.

If Survivor continues beyond ASS, then I hope the casting directors learn a lesson and stop signing up drips and lamers. It's much more fun for viewers when everyone on the cast is a go-getter. In future, let's leave out the types who will simply wait for the riches to fall in their lap because others in the game have, in the course of trying to win it, drawn attention to themselves as likely winners. If future casts are comprised entirely of such "likely winners" rather than including these crowd-shot extras, the game could have legs for years to come.

OK, rant off. ::grin::

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Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 02:35 PM (EST)
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15. "Excellent rant!"
Hoo-whee!! That was a great rant! Really.

I agree that going UTR is just about the easiest way to win this game, but it makes for annoying TV. The thing is, I think this is a fair reflection on how the world really works -- if you get along with everyone, don't irritate people and just sorta be there, you'll get a lot farther in life than most everyone else. That being said, you generally won't get to the top of your game that way in real life, but you also won't crash and burn.

Regarding ASS, I don't think there's any guarantee that these people are all going to play the game with a dynamic, in-your-face style. Remember Tina? I'm sure she'll play it exactly the way she did last time. And I'm not the type of person who would watch a whole season of Alicia/Kimmi/Jerri/Jon/Shawn cat fighting. That's even worse. But there must be a better middle ground.

Maybe after ASS it'll be time for MB to change the game. Stop casting limp-noodles. Don't start with two tribes, start with just one. Make cooperation play a stronger role in the game. Allow players to spontaneously change tribes ("Hey, my tribe has no food, I'm going over to that tribe. Sure, they might boot me out right away, but maybe I can get in tight with one of their alliances.") Have challenges that last an entire day. Dish out a free immunity idol to each player to use at the TC of their choosing. Randomly draw names to see who gets to vote at TC. Something, anything.

-P

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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 02:49 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
bravo! which is precicely why i feel sandra must be the winner, not darrah. MB has to know another winner like Jenna will be the death of the series, so it makes NO SENSE for him to have edited Darrah in the way he has if she is indeed the winner. There has to be SOMETHING he could have shown us by now that would at least spark some interest in her for the viewer. I just cannot imagine him sticking with the exact type of editing that failed so miserably before, even with Vee, who I did think was a worthy winner, and with whom Darrah is probably more analogous...i guess i would have to then say darrah is also a worthy winner by those standards, but at least vee had some personality

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bris 143 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 04:57 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
I would rather see a UTR win than a outcast that would be unfair. Also if a UTR wins it means it was a good season b/c that person got there becasue of other people bicerin and gettin each other off. And last time i check i dont think you were in PI with the cast aways so maybe Darrah is not as UTR as you think and wins. Also i think DArrah is the strongest girl but just my opioion
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Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 05:45 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
>And last time
>i check i dont think
>you were in PI with
>the cast aways

An astute observation indeed.

On the basis that anybody who was not a contestant in the Pearl Islands series is disqualified from discussing the likely turn of events, clearly we should wind up these message boards forthwith -- even if it means going without resolution to the eternal question, "Wot, were YOU in PI so as to formulate first hand this opioion of yours?"

Oh well. I guess I'll find a way to cope. ::chuckle::

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pinay_racer 122 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 07:45 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
LAST EDITED ON 11-12-03 AT 07:56 PM (EST)

good analysis. i wonder if this will actually work.

but i am leaning more on the rupert ouster on EP 9 - he is too much of a threat to be kept in the game. i am sure burton will knock some sense into the balboa people. The puppet master will follow on EP 10. Christa is next and sandra would go ahead of tijuana - darrah will convince lil and burton to send sandra to LL.

Another UTR player may just bring home the bacon. at least, she didnt have to strip to win it. hehehehe. come to think of it, she does take off her clothes to take a shower - of course her back was turned and no food was lured for her to do the same.

For sure, burton and lil will stick to each other like glue. while jon will be everybody's obnoxious tribemate who would be willing to be swayed wherever just to be able to extend his stay at the game.

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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 01:58 PM (EST)
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12. "Jon has the power"
As much as I hate to admit it, Jon has much more power than we want to give him credit for. He is irritating and grates against you just like Jerri, only he's an @$$ and not a b1tch.

I agree w/esquire's assessment of the alliances. Jon is on the outside, but look at the numbers:

3 Morgan - 3 Drake - 2 Outcasts - 1 Jon

Play the game like Rob C did, and you'll find that Jon only has to align with the right combination in order to stay alive. He can stick with the Drakes, but they have to align with the Outcasts to kick the Morgans off (which probably puts Lil in 6th place). If he defects to Morgan, it's the same thing, only I think Burton will last longer than Lil by winning trust as well as immunity.

The outcasts, though, are really just the last member of the Drake or Morgan alliance. Burton can get Lil to vote with him, but Lil doesn't have the political savvy to get Burton to vote with her. There would be no point of Jon aligning w/the Outcasts since they still have to pair up w/ Drake or Morgans. However, Jon is only irritating and he is NOT a serious challenge threat. He is the last place male of the remaining men, and we know that women can physically beat him in strength contests. He does contribute around the camp, though, so he does stay in people's good graces in that way.

Jon's survival will be in his ability to zig and zag like Rob did. If he gets to F2, just like Rob C, he'll win. But at EACH turn, he will have to know who to align with, and who to drop at the appropriate time.

A Jon win to me would be just like a Jenna win. You don't want to see it happen, but you have to respect it if it happens.

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 02:31 PM (EST)
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14. "Outside the editing box"
Don't lock yourselves into a Darrah win, we don't know anything. Her win can be easily explained but I won't repeat myself. This is all about mutiny and stopping powers that be and being cutthroat. The editing this year may not be about the winner in your face winning (or Rupert would be a lock) but rather the theme; mutiny, sneaky, piracy, etc. I'm not nearly as convinced as some of you that Darrah is this winner in this type of game. She is just someone thus far who hasn't fallen victim to the dark game that pirates play.


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Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 02:51 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Outside the editing box"
That's a mighty saucy sigpic you've got there VS!

About Darrah, I keep going back to the day of the third TC at Morgan. TJ went off to talk with Darrah out on the rocks. She came back and said Darrah didn't have much to say. We didn't get to see any of that conversation and I have a very nagging feeling that TJ and Darrah talked quite a bit. The fact that Darrah hasn't been visibly pirate-like is that she hasn't needed to be.

Regarding the final winner, I think we can eliminate the outcasts (lingering resentment about their re-entry into the game), eliminate RyanO (he's going this week), eliminate Rupert (no one wants to face him in f2), eliminate Jon (he'd only win against an outcast, but I'm certain he'll get booted for being untrustworthy/annoying). I feel strongly about those. That leaves us with Sandra, TJ, Darrah, and Christa in contention (not final 4). Of those, I think Sandra would screw over Christa and Darrah would screw over TJ. So we're down to Sandra and Darrah as contenders and I think Sandra has no hope of ever winning immunity and will get axed somewhere along the road. Only person left on my list is Darrah.

And just for good measure, here's my boot list in order:
RyanO (Jon, Rupert, Christa, Sandra, Burton, Lill)
Jon (everyone)
Rupert (TJ, Sandra, Burton, Darrah)
Christa (everyone, if Sandra's smart she'll vote for TJ)
TJ (everyone except Darrah who plays dumb and votes for Lill)
Sandra (everyone)
Burton (everyone)
Darrah wins (RyanO, Jon, TJ, Burton)

-P

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Cuauhtewatemoccajava 133 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 05:20 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Outside the editing box"
>I think Sandra has no
>hope of ever winning immunity

So, that's all the more reason to boot Darrah and keep Sandra around. =P

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aethelstan 4435 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 05:31 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Outside the editing box"
I think Sandra has no hope of ever winning immunity

Oddly enough, to win Survivor, you never need to win immunity. Kind of like Greg Lemond when he won the Tour de France a few years ago w/o ever winning a stage.

Btw, I love the new siggie, Veruca.


Another quality creation by JSlice

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 05:46 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Outside the editing box"
Thank you much Aethelstan MF and IC gave my name life lol

And you are so correct about immunity and her not winning should have no bearing. To repeat my longwinded post, Sandra/Burton/Lillian/Jon have a better shot advancing with each other than the others. The NICEST person, the ATHLETIC person, the audience POPULAR person is not the name of the game here.

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badger 1273 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 06:00 PM (EST)
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24. "jon -n- sandra"
i think part of the reasons we were witness to the "big fight" between jon and sandra (as well as to multiple confessions from both of them about how much they hate the other) is that these 2 will actually need each other (i'm a little reluctant to say "ally") to advance.

and i predict they DO advance. jon is our bearded-man-in-the-F3 position and sandra is the F2.

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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 07:24 PM (EST)
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30. "big lie?"
what if the big lie is that the jon/sandra blowup was STAGED and they are in a secret alliance? they may still hate one another, but sandra has said some oddly positive things about jon over the course of the show since that point.

i've always thought that a great strategy would be to form a two person alliance with someone you dislike early on, and agree to seem rather cold to each other, rarely talk, etc. maybe jon and sandra have done it?

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 06:04 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Outside the editing box"
LAST EDITED ON 11-12-03 AT 06:13 PM (EST)

I must chime in too -- great sig-pic, VS! (And about time you got one, too. Hats off to Icey and Misto.)

I was leaning toward Burton as a more likely F3 male boot than Jon, because I actually think Burton would be perceived as having a decent chance to win by any of the women left. I don't think Burton is really resented as an outcast by anyone other than Sandra right now. Whereas if Jon were in F3, he should seem like the best F2 opponent by any of the others, imo.

But with TDT's seeming confirmation that Rupert gets the boot next week, I sense that this crew is going to go after the challenge hogs in quick succession now. So, while I agree with your assessment of these four, I think Burton is likely to get dropped early on, unless he can manage to win every single immunity.

And if Sandra is in F3 and wins final immunity, I can see her booting Jon then and there just because she hates him. Sandra, Rupert and Lillian seem to vote mostly based on personal feelings, even when they are conforming to an alliance voting plan.


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badger 1273 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 06:28 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Outside the editing box"

> I
>don't think Burton is really
>resented as an outcast by
>anyone other than Sandra right
>now.

i wonder if we didn't see more "resentment" about burton last week because the drakes weren't suspecting a merge . they thought he'd help the drakes start winning challenges again.

i DEFINITELY picture burton being a challenge-hog. even though he proposed his TEAM throw a challenge, he doesn't seem like the kind of person to throw an individual challenge, even when it's for his own "good"

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Tiggertramp 3141 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 06:09 PM (EST)
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26. "It's all in the editting"
It's funny, not matter what thread you are in, everyone talks about how much they hate Jon. While my husband and I watch, all we can say is how much we hate him too.

BUT the interviews that survivors have had post prodution stated the same things they were saying about Rob C. last Survivor, "That he was more entertaining than anything, and that yeah he got on my nerves, but we all did. All you have is each other 24/7, we get a bit crabby with each other." (totally paraphrased)

So, I wonder, how much of this is crap that MB WANTS us to think, just like he wants us to love Rupert?? We are all so darned anxious to give Jon the boot, while so many in this thread have really looked at his true power. He is sittin' real pretty right now. Jon is playing a lot like Rob was, he is manipulating his way through this game. People don't trust him, but they NEED him, and he is relying on this to use them to his advantage.

I am way too sceptical about the whole editting process, that photofinish ending was the big lie that made me say MotherF___er Jiffy!!

I wonder if I could be the next football-type announcer?? Or am I too jaded....hmmm.

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Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 07:00 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: It's all in the editting"
>It's funny, not matter what thread
>you are in, everyone talks
>about how much they hate
>Jon. While my husband and
>I watch, all we can
>say is how much we
>hate him too.

I really think you're right when you say this is what we're being *encouraged* to feel about Jon. Certainly, we are only ever shown him as a pain in the backside, smug, untrustworthy and self-serving, but there are very few people in life who are like that ALL THE TIME and who have spent 29 years on this earth without learning a single lesson about how to moderate their behaviour in order to be more tolerable to the rest of society.

MB seems to like having a certain set of "characters" in his plot (the "loveable rogue," the "waspish woman," the "irritating git," etc), and the editing is what creates those characters rather than the other way around. Just like in a sitcom, where every character trait is exaggerated for comic effect rather than showing a "normal" balance, we're getting the TV version of these people and not the real deal.

Jon is the "love to hate him" character that is necessary for weekly conflicts and dramatic focal points. I don't think I'd enjoy having him as a friend in real life, but he's very entertaining on TV as a result of the editing, and I like the way he's playing the game so far -- especially after his "**** you" voting booth comment to Shawn, hee!! Great TV. I certainly wouldn't want him in F2 with me, because -- love him, hate him, or love to hate him -- he's playing a great game and there's always the risk that people will acknowledge that in the final vote, rather than it just being a traditional popularity contest.

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udg 3381 desperate attention whore postings
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11-13-03, 06:27 AM (EST)
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34. "I don't hate Jon..."
Not that I want him to stick around any longer than necessary. I don't sympathize with him at all, and I really don't want him to win, but I do like watching him. I find him entertaining. I like how he really seems to bug our dear friend, JP. I was ROFLMBO when he went to TC drunk. IMO, he definitely adds to the show... I just really don't want him to win or screw over anyone I like (Rupert, Christa, RyNo, Sandra).

What gets me is not how annoying he is (or is edited to seem), but rather YOU CAN'T TRUST HIM AS FAR AS DARRAH COULD THROW HIM. Do they not see that? Does he seem more trustworthy IRL?

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Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 06:18 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Outside the editing box"
Oddly enough, to win Survivor, you never need to win immunity.

I know, but I don't see Sandra in a strong alliance a la Colby/Tina that can deliver her to the finals and I don't see her being such a bad (Jon) person that she'd be guaranteed to lose in the f2. It's for these reasons that I don't think she makes it past f4.

Of the people remaining in the game, the only ones who I think might want to bring Sandra to f2 are Rupert and Christa. The rest would want to bring a Morgan or an Outcast in an attempt to get a 4-3 majority from the jury. And I just don't think Rupert and Christa are going to last much longer (4 weeks). In other words, unlike Greg LeMond, she needs to win immunity to survive.

Kind of like Greg Lemond when he won the Tour de France a few
years ago w/o ever winning a stage.

A few years ago...? I had to get into the Wayback Machine to find Greg's last Tour win (1990). And you're right, he didn't win a stage.

-P

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KeithFan 7422 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 05:59 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
The Drakes think they are in control.

John sees himself as the 4th person on drake.

As I have said before, the outcasts are really in control. I think Burton will pull His-Squirreliness asside and point to the facts of life. The OC's combine with Drake and John and plan to vote out Rupert. But Rupert throws them a curve and wins imunity this week.

As altenative, they vote out the next strongest immunity threat in the game Rhino, which still leaves the OC/J allience as the strongest, especially when combined with the leavin's of the Morgan or Drakes.

Episode 9- Rupert

#10 Christa, Sandra sees the writing on the wall and enters into a F2 compact with the Burton or Lil (whichever sees themselves as the most vulnerable -probably Burton because of strength)

#11- Tijuana
#12- Jon
#13- Darrah

#14 Burton's BL to Lil and he takes Sandra to the final 2.

Sandra wins Survivor Pearl Island 5-2, Lil and Jon vote for Burton, others don't want an Outcast to win it all.

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 07:35 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
LAST EDITED ON 11-12-03 AT 07:36 PM (EST)

Thanks BR, took me long enough huh

I do agree with you about Burton and the control he could have in winning challenges definitely and higher up I mentioned that I felt Lillian is definitely the "ghost of choice" out of either of them b/c Burton could argue his challenge prowess if it came to that. More than anything I am trying to debunk the theories of Morgan gets game and Darrah is the winner scenarios because Morgan still has the most to lose out there. All they are right now are people that can be utilized to get to the big guns, Rupert and then possibly Burton. I believe 100% some comments made that are shown are for a reason and Burton's comments about Jon being needed by the Morgan despite their not liking them could be an unfortunate prophecy.

The fact also that Sandra was absent from B/C/R's walk and present for T/J's talk make me positive, despite her willingness to commit to Rupert, she is as she always claimed to be, voter with the majority. The majority now has turned from power players to outsiders.

ETA: Thanks Blow! I'm feeling rather saucy there

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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-03, 08:08 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Remaining Core alliances"
i'm not sure lillian is really any more beatable than burton - she can, afterall, make the case that she was only voted out because morgan sucked so much early on, and was the THIRD person voted off her tribe, whereas burton was voted off FIRST from his

challenge prowess didn't help Kelly W. or COlby in the jury vote (or Matt, for that matter)

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benjapol 93 desperate attention whore postings
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11-13-03, 07:07 AM (EST)
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35. "Darrah is in the best position"
I won't be surprised if Darrah wins. She's in the best position right now. Burton knows he will finish fourth if he sticks with Rupert,Sandra,and Christa. At one point or another, maybe next week, maybe next two, He gotta recruit the remaining Morgan(s)(Darrah or Darrah&Tijuana) to get rid of the core Drake alliance. Then the power would shift to Burton Lill Jon Darrah (and Tijuana). Again Burton & Lill is too obvious, Jon's gonna work with Darrah to get rid of Burton.
Or maybe Sandra&Christa knows that Burton must switch side at some points so they decide to do it before him. In this case, it would be girls alliance, which will also favor Darrah
In both cases, Darrah would win, or at least last very long. Just because she's under the radar and not too obvious with anyone.
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okaloosajohn 1259 desperate attention whore postings
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11-13-03, 10:40 PM (EST)
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36. "New alliance"
So with the apparent 'new' alliance of Burton, Lil, Jon and the two remaining Morgans, that puts the new boot order at Rupert, Christa, Sandra? Pending IC wins, of course....unless the girls can forge a separate alliance and kick Burton out? Seems to fit with getting Lil, Burton and Darrah to the F3, doesn't it?

Okaloosajohn

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