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"Revisiting Final 3 Spoilers"
Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-07-03, 10:31 AM (EST)
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"Revisiting Final 3 Spoilers" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-07-03 AT 10:50 AM (EST)We've got a lot of Final 3 spoiler threads that are about to fall into the archives, so now that we know who the jury is, it could be a good time to revisit some of these. Perhaps it will help up to figure out the end game. Here are links to some of the threads I used as part of this analysis: Darrah/Sandra & Lillian/Trish IE's Pride Cometh Before the Fall Draco's Has the Winner Been Handed To Us Again? Accidental Tourist Snewser's Scorecard Betting Suspended Key Quote Now let's look at our Survivors: Lillian - Final 2 We've been told the final 2 includes an older woman who returned to the game. Lil is the only contestant who fits this criteria. Sandra - Possible winner? Evidence for: - TDT has a tip she makes final 3. - Gambling spoiler - Is Jon's comment that Sandra won't be winning a million dollars (see Key Quote) foreshadowing that the Puppetmaster is wrong and she does? - Is Rupert's comment that a Drake will win the game true and fufilled by Sandra? - Compared to Lil, Sandra could be described as a "younger woman". - Since she is not an IC threat, there's no reason to knock her off early. She would be least likely to upset the pecking order decided upon by any of the strategists out there. - Jury would include 3 Drake, 3 Morgan, and Burton. She's probably a lock for all 3 Morgan votes, since Lil was the beginning of the end for their tribe. - Does "Sandra" sound mannish? With the right accent, it could sound like "Alexander". Evidence against: - Gambling spoiler also had Osten going quite far, and we know that's not happening. - Would someone really describe Sandra as young? Darrah - Possible winner? Evidence for: - No doubt people describing her would consider her a "younger woman". - Both Draco and IE point out Ep 1 editing that suggests Darrah wins. - Is Jon's quote about Sandra not winning the true statement and Rupert's comment about a Drake winning false? Irony, irony. - E8 previews show the Drake women considering a woman's alliance, which would keep Darrah off the chopping block for a little while. - With only 2 Morgan on the jury (both of whom would definitely vote for her over Outcast Lil), she'd need at least 2 Drake votes to win. But would this final 2 be possible unless Lillian betrayed at least some of the Drakes along the way? - Out of the women, she and Christa are the two biggest IC threats. - Unusual name that could be seen as mannish. Evidence against: - Part of the minority alliance. She's outnumbered and ripe for Pagoning, unless she can forge new alliances. - There would need to be a major shift in alliances for Lil and Darrah to oust all of the members of the dominant tribe. Tijuana - Not final 3
Evidence for: - None, really, at this point. Evidence against: - Part of the minority alliance. - Is negative editing in E8 preview preparing us for her demise? - One member of the final 3 is male, one is Lill, and we have stronger arguments for other women to fill the third spot. Christa - Not final 3 Evidence for: - Strongest female is an IC threat. Evidence against: - No spoilers suggesting she stays past family reward challenge. - Being a strong IC threat also puts a target on her back, since an IC win could interfere with a pecking order. - One member of the final 3 is male, one is Lill, and we have stronger arguments for other women to fill the third spot. OK, that's the women. Now, who are the best possibilities for the bearded man?
Jon - Quite possible Evidence for: - Obnoxiousness makes him an appealing F2 partner. - Not an IC threat, so keeping him around doesn't risk upsetting the pecking order with an IC run. - If Darrah and Lillian are the final 2, I could completely understand why Darrah would pick Lillian to go to the final 2 with her (and vice versa). As obnoxious as he is, he does have more tribe members on the jury than they do, who might prefer to have their tribemate win even if he is a jerk. - Love him or hate him, he's playing the game. Evidence against: - His obnoxiousness has already made him a voting target. - No one trusts him as far as they can throw that skinny ass of his. Would they be willing to make a deal with the devil? Burton - Quite possible
Evidence for: - Big IC threat. - Lillian will remain loyal to her fellow Outcast. - Revenge is quite a motivator to stick around. - Has already ingratiated himself with some of his original tribemates. - Definitely around for the family challenge. Evidence against: - Spoiler evidence is suggesting that the big IC threats are all being targeted early. Can he put together a big enough run to save his Outcast hide again? - Do his original tribemates really trust him enough to keep him around? Rupert - Doubtful
Evidence for: - Big IC threat. - Family member travels for possible participation in reward challenge. Evidence against: - As Jon has pointed out, it's suicide to go against him in the final 2. - Spoiler evidence surfacing that suggests he's gone in E9. - Wife's itinerary suggests possiblity that he's the last boot before the family challenge. Ryan - Uh, no.
Evidence for: - You're kidding, right? Evidence against: - His tribe and alliance are outnumbered, and he's the biggest threat on that alliance. He will be toast next episode if he doesn't win IC. Feel free to dig up other discussions that support/refute potential Final 3 participants.
edited for clarity and to add comments about mannish names We really do have guidelines here. Believe it or not, the Guidelines make things more fun. Really.
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bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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11-07-03, 10:43 AM (EST)
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1. "Darrah vs Sandra" |
Bebo, thanks for revisiting the final 3 discussion.Just yesterday at Sucks, Griffe clarified what she knows about the final 2. Here is the thread: http://pub207.ezboard.com/fsurvivorsucksfrm2.showMessageRange?topicID=16301.topic&start=541&stop=560 Here are the things Griffe said pertaining to Darrah vs Sandra: "For whatever it's worth, the locals claim it's Darrah but if you try to find anyone that actually saw the F2, you will have a terribly hard time." "Younger woman...she was said to have long dark hair and pretty. I guess it could be either Darrah or Sandra." "Did anyone say that the young woman had long black hair? Yes. Before the cast even came out. And they said she had a male sounding name." For those of you who don't know, Griffe works with Snewser to help spoil the show. She and I have emailed each other, and AyaK speaks very highly of her. I hope she stops by and adds to this discussion. I hear that our own li'l Bebekid is like the Spoiling Queen of the Universe now. How cool is that? ~ SherpaDave
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-07-03, 11:14 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Darrah vs Sandra" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-07-03 AT 11:15 AM (EST)Good job, Bebo. To add to what Bebekid posted above, it seems that nowhere in the conversations did the locals say the younger woman was a Latina, or looked like a Latina, though they spent some time describing her as having long black hair. I can't help but think that the Panamian locals, who were observing a cast and production crew consisting almost entirely of Americanos, would first and foremost remember Sandra as the Latina in the cast. And I do not think that "Sandra" would sound like a man's name to the Panamians, it would be recognized as a common woman's first name there. So it seems to me the person they are describing is Darrah; but then as Griffe notes, the question is: is this person really in the Final 2?
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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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11-07-03, 02:43 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Darrah vs Sandra" |
>And I do not think that >"Sandra" would sound like a >man's name to the Panamians, >it would be recognized as >a common woman's first name >there. I don't think we can safely assume this -- Sandra is not a spanish name -- but, Sancho and Santo are two very common male spanish names, both of which sound like "Sandra." Of course, Dario is a male spanish name that sounds a lot like "Darrah," -- I'm just trying to point out that although to our American ears, Darrah sounds a lot like the male name Darryl, and Sandra is def. a woman's name, I don't think we should make those same assumptions for the Panamanians. Also, I don't think that the fact that Sandra is Latina to us means the Panamanians would necessarily describe her as one -- people in Latin and South American countries identify themselves by their countries or by the terms "Central American" and "South American" and do not lump themselves all together into one Latina group like we do in the states (just confuse a Panamanian with a Chilean or a Honduran, to see what I mean). So, I don't think it is unbelievable that they would not have described Sandra as Latina .
compliments of GeorgiaBelle Beauty Product Queen of the Boards and a fancy girl to boot!
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-07-03, 10:48 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Revisiting Final 3 Spoilers" |
Boy--you put a lot of thought and work on that summary--bravo.I think you also have to take into consideration a scenario that could get three to the end together. For example, I have a hard time seeing a scenario in which the final three are Lil, Darrah and Rupert. How do those three end up together? It is possible, but a stretch. On the other hand, I could see Lil, Darrah and Burton together. This could happen, for example, if Ryan goes next and then Burton, Jon and Lil realize they are better off ditching Rupert, Christa and Sandra. It is still a little difficult seeing how this ends up with Darrah in the finals, but more likely. The real point I am trying to make is that in looking at who will make the final three, it is helpful to look one at a time (as you have done very well), but not enough. We need to pick out groupings of three and see if there is a reasonable scenario that gets us there. At this point in prior seasons, it was often impossible to see the unique course of events that would get to the eventual final three. In other season, it was pretty easy. Who knows yet about this season, but it is useful to add this factor to the mix.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-07-03, 11:02 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Revisiting Final 3 Spoilers" |
Thanks. I think it's a little early to figure out what could lead to those trios just yet. Like you alluded to, who would have picked Jenna, Matthew, and Rob at this point (without the betting spoiler)? Or maybe a better example would be Kathy, Vee, and Neleh?I also think that after next week's episode, we'll have a lot more information. While I think Ryan is going to be pagonged, I also think we'll have more insight into alliances courtesy of... - What Darrah, Tijuana, and Ryan do to try and save themselves. Markopolo's Insider transcript shows us that Darrah and Ryan are tight, with Tijuana hanging on as a third wheel. Does Tijuana approach the women to try and save her own neck? Does Darrah appear in this episode? Could she be like Neleh and finally shows some strategic maneuvering now that she's threatened? - The unlikely pair on the reward challenge. Is this the trip to a resort that has been alluded to, where a male wins a reward challenge and brings along a companion? - Who will Jon ally himself with? Previews showed interaction with Burton. We've also been hit over the head with comments that he's the most likely Drake to ally with the Morgans. After his interaction with Darrah during the gross shake challenge, does he bring her into the fold (possibly by taking her on a reward challenge resort date), in an attempt to get an alliance and the island sex he alluded to? We really do have guidelines here. Believe it or not, the Guidelines make things more fun. Really.
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GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-07-03, 10:56 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Revisiting Final 3 Spoilers" |
Great thread, Bebo! I basically agree with your insights. Here are only a few observations on a few people. If we assume the Final 3 are Lillian, a woman and a (bearded) man, which describes any man after 39 days...we should have Person #1 Lillian--It seems obvious she will finish second. No Morgan will ever vote for her, which means 2 or 3 dead against her right away. The Drakes are bonded enough that they would probably vote for even Jon over somebody who doesn't deserve to be there. OTOH, she's not a "superwoman" immunity threat and because she has no chance to win, there's little reason to vote her out. Person #2 Every woman is younger than Lill, but Tijuana will surely be pagonged at some point and I agree with you that Christa is athletic/popular enough that it is unlikely to be her. So is it Sandra or Darrah? I think the odds favor Sandra. Keep in mind she was apparently on the "short list" to make All-Stars. Jon's comment was "She's not making the Final 4. And I guarantee she won't win." Maybe she won't win, but she will surely make the Final 4 based on that. And I think it's likely the same irony as Richard's million dollar check...too good a quote for MB to leave on the cutting room floor. Darrah is possible. I would think she would have to go on a pretty heroic run to survive, but maybe she will pull a Jenna...fly under the radar to F4 while the Drakes pick off strong folk like Rupert and Burton and then win a couple immunities at the very end. Person #3 It's not RyanO. Burton has to have a huge target on his back based on his recent IC performance. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Rupert. He has a pretty solid alliance with Sandra and Christa, which might be enough to propel him and Sandra both to the end. The real problem I have with either Burton or Rupert finishing third is that I don't see them losing the typically physical final IC to either Sandra or Darrah (or Lillian). But then I'll never forget Kim J outlasting Ethan and Lex either. Jon as the finalist would solve those problems, but does anybody see a Lillian/Sandra/Jon alliance in the offing? Anyway, just some early musings. Since it's so obvious RyanO is gone next we have to do something, right?
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-07-03, 11:18 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Revisiting Final 3 Spoilers" |
but does anybody see a Lillian/Sandra/Jon alliance in the offing? Time for Bebo's wild speculations: Lillian/Jon/Sandra - This threesome would be fueled by a final 2 alliance of Jon and Sandra. Not out of the realm of possibilities. After all, when Trish and Jon were discussing voting out Rupert, who was the third person in the discussion? Sandra. And two weak IC people watching each other's backs while lying to everyone else would not be a stretch, either. So, who wins final IC to put Jon in third place? I say Sandra does. Picking Lillian would be the smart choice, since Drakes would vote for Sandra out of tribe loyalty, and Morgans would vote for Sandra out of spite against the outcast. Jon's obnoxious, but he might also convince his fellow Drakes that he played the game better than Sandra and was thus more worthy of their votes than she was. Lillian/Jon/Darrah - I see this threesome fueled by a final 2 alliance of Darrah and Lillian. Would Darrah be open to this alliance? Absolutely - she's in a weak position now and needs any hook possible to get back into this game. Would Lillian be open to it? Yeah, I think so. Since Darrah was the other head on the chopping block that day, I think that Darrah is the only Morgan she'd be willing to forgive. Ryan's gone next ep. And we were shown Tijuana's "Lillian! You're back!" and Lillian's underwhelmed response to such obvious sucking up, so Lil doubts Tijuana's sincerity. If Lillian opens her eyes and sees where she fits in the Drake pecking order (see "bottom"), she could be open to an alliance with D. And if Burton betrays her, she'll definitely be open for it. And who wins final IC to put Jon in third place? Either one, really. Yes, Jon's obnoxiousness makes him a good person to go up against in the final 2. But with all of those Drake on the jury, there's no reason to give the game away based on original tribal loyalty. We really do have guidelines here. Believe it or not, the Guidelines make things more fun. Really.
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Sneezles 114 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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11-07-03, 11:59 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Revisiting Final 3 Spoilers Lillian/Darrah" |
HockeyPerson: What is your opionion of Darrah? Lillian: I believe that she was a young girl not used to working hard in the outdoors. I am sure she worked hard at what she did in her chosen profession, but she did flatter me on a number of occasions. She said I reminded her a lot of her father, which I considered a high compliment, because she was very close to her father. This is off Lillian's post boot chat... I think that this could be a reason that Lillian and Darrah end up F2. B/c if Lillian remind's Darrah of her father (snort..hehe) then she could be willing to bring Lil with her. And if Darrah is complementing Lil enough then maybe Lil will be less likely to turn on her. jmho... tear apart at will....
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Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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11-07-03, 12:58 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: A way it could play out but doubtful" |
I agree that RyanO is the next to go, but I don't agree that Tijuana is the next obvious pick. Here's what we'd have:Morgan - Tijuana, Darrah Drake - Rupert, Christa, Sandra, Jon Outcast - Burton, Lill (these two should be viewed as a separate tribe by the other players, but of course they won't be). With the high number of Drakes, I think that group will be comfortable booting one of their own in Ep9. The apparent pick is Jon, but I think the schemers are actually going to try to get rid of Rupert. I believe it would be smart for Burton, Lill, Sandra and Darrah to form a 4-way alliance with Sandra being the odd girl out. So here's how I see it playing out: Ep9 - Rupert Ep10 - Jon Ep11 - Christa Ep12 - Tijuana Ep13 - Sandra Ep14 - Burton Lill and Darrah are final two, Darrah wins with the following votes: Andrew, RyanO, Jon, Tijuana, and maybe more. I just think Darrah is going to go UTR for the rest of the game, win some challenges, but be viewed as the Morgan that gets brought along by the Drakes and just "gets lucky" to make final three. -P
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toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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11-07-03, 04:24 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: A way it could play out but doubtful" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-08-03 AT 04:28 PM (EST)I have an issue with the Sandra not Darrah F2 theories, as well as the Jon in F3 theories. The family visit spoilers have been pretty reliable since Marquesas, and 5 of the 6 family members have been identified (Burton, Darrah, Lil, Rupert, Christa) which means that of Tijuana, Sandra and Jon, only one will be left. My guess is that it will be Sandra, but who knows? I really think Panamanians would definitely note Sandra since she is also Latina, and no way would they think it sounds like a man's name, so it seems to me that the Lil/Darrah F2 spoiler is likely true. My guess is that Burton will be bearded man, definitely not Jon. 4th place could be anyone, really. Edited to say: Ok, Jon may be the bearded man in 3rd place, but he has the least beard and his blonde hair is more prominent, so I think it unlikely but possible he is the 3rd man. I feel very confident that the above 5 are 5 of the final 6, though, because the airline ticket spoiler is pretty firm. So I really don't think BOTH Jon and Sandra are F6, and it seems consensus that Tijuana is going soon.
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-07-03, 01:32 PM (EST)
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15. "Accidental Tourist?" |
I'm beginning to wonder about the Accidental Tourist. Did the Accidental Tourist actually see Lillian in the Final Two?Remember... Sources tell us this superwoman goes on to win another challenge right after the first one. This was wrong, in a way. It was actually a Superman (waves to Supes) who won this challenge. Burton. What might be different is that for the first time ever, a pre-merge boot will be in the Final 2. That's right...the older female booted pre-jury who came back from the dead made Final 2. Two women best a male player to become the final two. I'm becoming more skeptical of this. The Accidental Tourist only indicated to us that ONE player would come back. And they knew that one player is an older woman. Isn't it possible that the Accidental Tourist found out that the resurrected player makes the Final Two. And since, they only knew about Lillian, logically they could assume it must be her. The only thing that really would have me puzzled here, though, is the part about the two women besting a man. Again, they might have just known that a "woman" and a "resurrected player" were in the Final Two. And based off of jury stuff, they may have known that #3 was male. I'm just pointing out that maybe it still is possible Burton is Final Two, not Lil. The problem I had with Burton as #3 is that I just don't see two women beating him at the final IC, especially if it's physical. However, if this is Lillian in the Final Two, right now, I'm kind of leaning toward Jon. -Foreshadowing. Been shown as physically weak. He loses that final IC and gets booted. -Jeff noted that right when he falls on his face, you kinda want to root for him to get up. A grudging respect? -Jeff also calls the Big Lie "brilliant." Does it get him to the Final 3? Just three more points to consider. I also still wonder about Christa. A woman with a man's name. Christa... Right now I'm against this idea, but the name has always been in the back of my mind. Darrah vs Sandra... I dunno. Right now I'm leaning toward Sandra. Remember, this is the Pearl Islands. Very Latino area. The locals might not describe Sandra as Latino, per se. Right now, I'm leaning toward this theory. I could see the Ghosties flip flopping all season... 9. Fat Ryan 8. Rupert 7. Christa 6. Tijuana 5. Darrah 4. Lillian/Burton 3. Jon 2. Burton/Lillian 1. Sandra JSlice is da bomb
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jasonx 49 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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11-07-03, 05:47 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Revisiting Final 3 Spoilers" |
now that the merge is done, it seems pretty clear how the game will be played out...the following are my predictions.First, let's see who's left: ex-Drake: Jon, Sandra, Christa, Rupert, Burton ex-Morgan: Rhino, Tijuana, Darrah, Lill Technically, you can put Lill on the Drake side. This is a huge disadvantage for the 3 remaining Morgans. In the next 3 episodes, Jon, Rhino, Rupert are the ones most in trouble and will be voted out, unless they get immunity. Reasons are obvious. Jon is an ass to both tribes, Rhino is the next strongest Morgan left, and Rupert is the strongest Drake. Then, Burton will go (remaining strongest). This leaves Darrah, Tijuana, Sandra, Christa and Lill in the final 5. (my all female prediction...how will they survive?) Lill will not get voted out because she will never get enough votes from ex-Morgans, and she is not hated by drakes. plus, we know from spoilers that she'll stay. I dunno, i could be totally wrong. Just my guess after watching tonight's episode.
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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-08-03, 02:08 AM (EST)
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29. "Seating at Tribal Council" |
I just went back and watched the TC from last night, and seasting was as follows:Andrew-Ryan-Christa-Burton-Rupert Jon-Darrah-Lillian-Sandra-Tijuana interesting notes: *Lillian is sitting between Sandra and Darrah. no help there. *Jon and Tijuana are separated from the rest of their tribe, and T is also next to Sandra. Possible indication of a defection for a female alliance already in the works? She also seemed to know Andrew was gone in the Insider clips, although she still held true to Morgan in the vote (maybe because she knew it didn't matter). Is Jon also in on this? the bottom row J-D-L-S-T excludes Christa whose loyalty to Rupert may be too much to risk right now. At the very least, Sandra seems to be working the former Morgan women already
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1derfool 185 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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11-08-03, 04:04 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: rooting for jon" |
Has anyone seen a spoiler about weight loss etc about Jon? I can't for the life of me dig one up, and can't remember one either. If there really aren't any, could it be because he went into hiding as soon as he got home, or shortly after? He knows he spouts off, talks without thinking and could easily be taunted into spilling the beans about the finals. We're all thinking and hoping he gets voted off soon, but what if he made it to the end? He'd probably find it a lot easier and safer to disappear for a while (and knowing he's in the final 2, he can afford to be off work for a while since he's got his winnings coming soon). One spoiler we have about Lillian: "she came back 25 pounds lighter and covered with bug bites ." If she had been booted off soon after her return, or even before the last week, chances are her bug bites would have been somewhat healed. I'd bet they had access to bug repellant at LL or the hotel so there'd be few, if any fresh bites on anyone booted soon after the merge. However, if she lasted to the end, she'd still be sporting fresh "wounds". Even though all the castaways were covered in them, the only spoiler I could locate mentioning bites was for Lillian. This led me to think she's the 'older woman' even if one of the other ladies might be weathered and worn enough to look old at the end of the 39 days. I don't know who the third one could be, but I'm thinking Jon and Lillian are in the F3.
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-09-03, 10:14 AM (EST)
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37. "RE: Revisiting Final 3 Spoilers" |
Excellent job to lay all of this out, Bebo! I really don't have much argument with any of the scenarios presented, but one change I might suggest is regarding Sandra.Remember when Sandra came over to Moron to loot? She left a bad taste in the mouths of Darrah, Lillian and Tijuana. How will that affect any alliance talk between Sandra and either Lil or Darrah? Will it be completely swept under the rug by that point in time? From reading all of the responses in this thread, I'm leaning towards a Darrah-Lil final two with Burton in third place as the bearded guy, with Sandra possibly being the one instead of Darrah. I'm having trouble seeing Rupert making it to F3 considering all of the targets placed on his back, but there's that nagging bit of info that has him in Panama the next few weeks filming S8:ASS so how would he make his media appearances if he's booted before the F4? MB probably doesn't care about that, though...
Heidi: My biggest assets to the tribe are my athletic skills and my intelligence. I've lost one of them. Jiffy: Which one?
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badger 1273 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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11-09-03, 10:03 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: Revisiting Final 3 Spoilers" |
while procrastinating on other work i should've been doing today, i came up with this run-down of the survivor 7 top 9. sorry, in advance, for the length of this post. but as i tried to figure out my thoughts on the final three, i had to do work on what the rest of the lineup looked like.as i formulated this, i tried to picture the remaining survivors in 3 tribes: morgan--rhino, t, darrah (and sometimes lil) drake--rupert, christa, jon, sandra (and sometimes burton) outcast--burton and lil i think it's important to recognize this 3-tribe dynamic, as burton and lil may or may not vote with their former tribe members -- depending on who's threatened, depending on perceived weakness of their former tribe, etc. the only people who are "firm" in this list are, of course, rhino at number 9 and lil at number 2. 9. RHINO (according to mr 411 and the yahoo spoiler. obvious, as well, as he's the remaining morgan male. lil, who will be, i think, the deciding factor in many votes to come, didn't seem to like him in exit interviews) 8. RUPERT (again, thanks to mr 411. but even without this one, i think rupert's time is drawing to an end. he has started to have some negative editing (screaming at jon, for example). and the "swimming with sharks" title certainly indicates some possible carnage. i know folks are concerned with his ASS participation interfering with interviews. maybe MB will use this opportunity to announce the cast of the show. maybe interviews have already been taped. regardless of how this is dealt with friday morning, i foresee jon, burton, lil, t, and darrah voting to oust rupert thursday nite) 7. CHRISTA (here is where these former tribe dynamics become important. once again, by voting off a strong member of drake, other drakes find themselves in trouble, particularly since burton isn't a reliable "drake" vote. burton did express his dislike for christa in his earlier interviews. and i think christa was "tight" with rupert. she's also an immunity-threat--the strongest female left. so everyone -- minus jon and sandra perhaps -- team up to get rid of the girl-with-the-braids) 6. TIJUANA (jon and sandra realize here that they are screwed and will be pagonged if they do not stem the tide of drake exodus. i think that editing thus far has placed these 2 as enemies. and as the rest of the show comes together, i see them actually working side-by-side to get to the F3. but i'm not that far yet. anyway, jon and sandra and burton and lil vote to boot t. lil's vote comes because t just doesn't work hard enough around camp and because t seemed the most "fake" upon lil's return) 5. darrah (yes, i know this runs counter to the wisdom of snewser, but darnit. i just don't want her in the F2. i have a hard time seeing how, without an immunity run, that darrah would make it past this point -- three remaining drakes (including burton here) and lil, who again isn't a sure "morgan" voter. and i have a hard time seeing that immunity run occuring with burton still around.) 4. burton (so at this stage, we have burton, jon, lil and sandra left. burton and lil are allied, and jon and sandra are. really, who gets booted this week is largely dependent on who wins, and who doesn’t win, immunity. and let’s just say jon or sandra win it this week, and fearing burton’s strength in a final challenge, vote to get rid of him) 3. jon (he’s the survivor we love to hate. but golly, it’d be a boring season without him. so i'm giving him the honor of this F3 position. despite how much he gets on people’s nerves, i think he’ll make it this far a) because he’s the ideal final 2 partner, b) because the drakes will need his vote, and c) because he’s not much of a physical threat in challenges – he did do pretty well in that swimming challenge to his credit, of course. but i think sandra wins the final IC challenge, and uncertain about how her fellow drakes will vote, chooses to take lil, not jon. or, perhaps lil wins the final IC and remembering sandra’s stealing of the tarp and hoping this will work against her, chooses to take sandra, not jon) 2. lil (is there any doubt here?!?) 1. sandra (that quote by jon, with his assuredness about her NOT winning the $1 million, really sticks with me. there’s the gambling spoiler, which i realize is partially defunct. there’re the repeated references to her voting for anyone to make sure her name doesn’t come up. and finally, there’s my wish that darrah not win. i am sick sick sick of the whole UTR thang.) Phew. So, to make a short story long, my final 3 are sandra, lil, and jon.
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missygirl3 541 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-10-03, 10:29 AM (EST)
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45. "RE: Revisiting Final 3 Spoilers" |
I know that most people think that Sandra is already the winner, but is there anyone besides me that thinks that is someone else. I have read all the spoilers& such, but I am still thinking it might all be rumours. Have any of these spoilers come true in the past? Me, I would LOVE to see Rupert get that big fat check from the Early Show on 12/15. I dont know. JMO. My hubby thinks Darrah may come out on top.
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aethelstan 4435 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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11-10-03, 02:52 PM (EST)
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49. "RE: Revisiting Final 3 Spoilers" |
First off, great job as usual Bebo. I have a tough time thinking that Burton will be in the F3. Seems to me that they should get rid of him in the next 2 to 3 weeks because he will be seen as such a huge IC threat.Of course, the problem with that is that who will vote him off? The ex-Drakes and ex-Morgans would have to agree on who to vote for which is somewhat unlikely. It seems that traditional Pagonging is disappearing because many alliances are being done for convenience and last only one episode. See Shawn and Rupert for example. Also, the size of true alliances is smaller than before. Brian had 1-1 alliances and Trish, apparently, was trying to do the same thing. So, if Burton is tight with Lillian, both being outcasts, then they could pick up Darrah as another outcast and pose a threat to the ex-Drake alliance. But, just as easily, Darrah and Tijuana could team up with Sandra and Christa and vote off the men. And, to me, this seems more likely. Another quality creation by JSlice
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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11-10-03, 03:14 PM (EST)
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50. "RE: Revisiting Final 3 Spoilers" |
What I posted actually seems to fit nicer in this thread regarding the final three spoilers so those of you who have deja vu when reading this, I'm just being redundant. Darrah being the final two person is easily explained when you look at everyone else out there. Lillian and Burton are both ghosts and that fact alone can potentially swing a vote away from them and don't think for a moment some of the others are not recognizing that and don't think for a moment that Burton and Lillian aren't recognizing that. What would be better (from a ghost's perspective) than another ghost to be a final two partner with? Tijuana and Sandra (and we've see this part of their personality already) will probably open their mouths at the wrong moment, Christa was too close to Rupert and Jon's antics are only sufficient for so long. The best way in that mix of personalities is to tread softly and let the others piss on each other.
Before the ghosts came along, Jon seemed like a perfect final two partner. I think he just got upstaged by ghosts but Lillian is a much better ghost to take with you merely because she has less than nothing to crow about as to why she should be the winner. Burton can at least crow over coming back and staying in the game on his own merits. Darrah isn't overbearing Darrah isn't viewed as a strong male Darrah isn't loyal to a strong alliance I don't see Darrah so much as an "outcast" but rather someone in a mix of major in your face personalities being outside of the box.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-11-03, 10:36 AM (EST)
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52. "RE: Revisiting Final 3 Spoilers" |
I can see Darrah in the final. She is kind of like Vee was in S4. She came from the tribe that is now at a disadvantage. But she blends in quietly and nobody is noticing her or thinking of her as a threat.
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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-11-03, 08:35 PM (EST)
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57. "RE: Revisiting Final 3 Spoilers" |
i have much less a problem with burton being F3 than i do darrah being F2, partially for just that reason
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LookeeLoo 1169 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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11-11-03, 09:01 PM (EST)
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58. "RE: Revisiting Final 3 Spoilers" |
HE, you are so level headed and I enjoy your posts. This seems to be a trend. The winner is the once you least see any character development in, the one you don't see any leadership from, the one you don't see any bonding with others. Amazon did this and I was very dissapointed in the outcome. I'm sure they had enough footage to portray the Jenna in a much better light. I don't really understand why they didn't, except for the controversy factor. But, you could have more than one Survivor portrayed "worthy". Why don't they do this? I really love Eco Challenge. (When I got hooked on Survivor, I had no idea that MB was the one who did Eco). You see a lot of teams and a lot of individual character development. This is what intrigues me most. For me, Eco is the purest Survivor game, bar none (except I thought that the last one didn't follow the previous pattern.) It allows you to root for more than one player, more than one team, and results in more satisfaction when being able to say, "yeah, I was rooting for so-and-so cause I could realte to them better, but the team that one was worthy in their own right too".
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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-11-03, 10:04 PM (EST)
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59. "RE: Revisiting Final 3 Spoilers" |
i completely agree that it has happened in the past (pretty much every season except 1 and 5, i guess, although we at least got something of tina, ethan and vee, and a lot, if negative, of jenna) and could well again, i just think after the adverse reaction to jenna last season taht MB would change that practice. of course, i'm probably wrong, but it would make sense to me...
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Cuauhtewatemoccajava 133 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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11-11-03, 12:44 PM (EST)
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54. "Original post may have something slighty incorrect." |
LAST EDITED ON 11-11-03 AT 12:47 PM (EST)Hiya! I'm new here. Sorry to have my first post be about this, but I thought the Bebo might want to know, RE: The Betting Spoiler There were actually like two betting spoilers reported, just at the same time. BetWWTS.com is the one that shut down the betting. From that article: Of all of the money wagered on "Survivor" to date, nearly 95% originated from new accounts in the Vancouver area and all was placed on the same castaway
That one is the true betting spoiler, imo. The above was related to when a poster posting here on September 25th that "The Sheet Metal Man" knew Lillian's significant other who used him to find out Lillian was in the finals against Sandra, and had played a $20,000 bet at BetWWTS.com. I believe I read also (but it wasn't stated in the main article, there were some other ones on the scandal) that Lill had the second highest odds next to Sandra. Another one, I believe it was Intertops. I don't recall if that one shut down as well, however, that one was the one with Sandra and Osten as the two highest. I think it's very important not to get the two confused, and that's why I think: a) The betting spoiler should really have some extra weight on it b) That the betting spoiler might need to be removed as a detriment for Sandra. It's completely up to Bebo, don't get me wrong, but I think it might be wise to remember that there are two different ones, and that the one that really could be considered a scandal did NOT have Osten at the top, and that the one with just Sandra was the one with The Sheet Metal man (who knew Lill's husband) spoiler. -Cuauhtewatemoccajava
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