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Chez 777 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-31-03, 11:53 AM (EST) "How the rest of the game will play out" I think we are getting to the point where we can guess the course of the rest of the game with at least some semblance of rationality. Here's my 2 cents-- Last night’s episode was so exciting – the best ever, in my opinion, other than a season finale! I have some strong ideas in my mind about what will happen next- First of all, the Castaways demonstrated the type of extreme teamwork I have rarely if ever seen in any challenge on Survivor. This leads me to believe that the 2 chosen castaways, whoever they may prove to be (though I feel Burton and Lil are most likely) will make an alliance with each other, before leaving the group, that they will never betray each other to the end. And this alliance, unlike many we have seen before, will “stick”, I feel certain. There is just too much shared emotion for them to betray each other later. So the next problem is how will they survive till further in the game? The answer is, they have to approach one or the other of Drake or Morgan, and offer their combined votes to oust the 4 members of the opposing team. This would at least get the 2 castaways to the Final Six, and they could take their chances from that point forward. This is the only plan that makes sense for the 2 castaways that are returning. Which team would likely be approached? I feel that that the voted-out Drake members feel more venom toward their former teammates than do the voted-out Morgans. And if Burton and Lil in particular are the 2 returnees, I think this is especially true. So let’s say Burton is the returnee who goes to “live” at Morgan (for a day or so until the merge (which I amm assuming comes next, and this may be wrong). He immediately approaches Andrew, or the entire team, and tells them he understands they resent his and Lil’s re-entry to the game, but they can offer the Morgans a ticket to the endgame. The deal would be: if Morgan agrees not to vote off the returning castaways, for at least 4 Tribal Councils, then Burton and Lil will agree to help vote off the Drakes, one by one. This will allow the Morgan alliance to reach the end, as we have suspected from the spoilers. Probably the order of booting will be 1st Jon, then Sandra, then Rupert, finally Christa. One reason I guess this order is that there is spoiling Rupert goes in Episode 9 (from Mr411’s spoiler on Sucks about Mrs. Rupert’s quick return trip from Panama at the time of the family visit). Also, the Morgan’s really, really hate Jon so they will take him first. After Jon, Sandra is the next likely target, as she was not nice to them at the Reward pillaging when she took the shelter tarp. Next comes Rupert, according to the spoiling. Finally, Christa, who is inoffensive, will be the last to go. I feel that the “bearded man” who makes it to 3rd place is Burton. Did you see how heavy his beard already was last night? Give him another 2 weeks and this will be an apt description. Since we think that Lil and Darrah are the final two, this implies Darrah must win the Immunity Challenge at F3, and chooses Lil to go with her to F2 instead of Burton. In order for all this to play out, it means that Burton and Lil must reestablish themselves over the course of the next few episodes and are integrated into the team. Maybe Andrew starts acting too arrogant, as we had a glimpse last night, when Tijuana was starting to show some annoyance. This leaves only the boot order of Andrew, Ryan O, and Tijuana to figure out. Spoilers say T. is #4. So Andrew and Ryan are 5 and 6, in some order. So, my guess is: Burton and Lil return (convince Morgan to postpone booting them in order to Pagong the Drakes) Boot order: Jon (Ep 7b) Sandra (Ep 8) Rupert (Ep 9) Christa (Ep 10) Andrew and Ryan (Ep 11 and 13) Tijuana (F4) Burton (F3) Darrah and Lil (F2)   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: How the rest of the game will p... corcam 10-31-03 1    RE: How the rest of the game will p... pmspml5 10-31-03 2  RE: How the rest of the game will p... mtopaz 10-31-03 3  RE: How the rest of the game will p... Kokoro 10-31-03 4    RE: How the rest of the game will p... ExInterper 10-31-03 5    RE: How the rest of the game will p... I_AM_HE 10-31-03 6    RE: How the rest of the game will p... Blow by Blow 10-31-03 7        The flaw in this plan FesterFan1 10-31-03 9            RE: The flaw in this plan I_AM_HE 10-31-03 10                RE: The flaw in this plan Blow by Blow 10-31-03 12  RE: How the rest of the game will p... badger 10-31-03 8  RE: How the rest of the game will p... Jims02 10-31-03 11

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corcam 374 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 10-31-03, 12:11 PM (EST) 1. "RE: How the rest of the game will play out" Boot order: Jon (Ep 7b) Sandra (Ep 8) Rupert (Ep 9) Christa (Ep 10) Burton and Andrew(Ep 11 and 13) Tijuana (F4) Ryan (F3) Lil and Darrah (F2) For some reason after the pagoning I feel they won't feel the need to keep Burton around anymore and will get rid of him instead of Ryan.. it is hard to say b/c all Ryan Burton and Andrew have facial hair at this point in the game so they are all going to have a beard of some sort by the end of the game. In sight on the misfits return to the game they are still the "enemy" and will be treated as such even after the pagoning if it should happen, and I think unless they have a few aces in the hole at that time they are goners for sure, well atleast if Burton comes back, the female that comes back will be safe for awhile until all the males are picked off one by one. I would personally like to see Michelle and Burton come back. But hey that is just me. If a misfit does win S7 it is just going to be like S4 when Vee won, which SUCKED major, oh and Rich S1, Tina S2, ect ect. lol   Top

pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-31-03, 12:29 PM (EST) 2. "RE: How the rest of the game will play out" However one of the clips for next week shows 14/15 people running into the water. Originally the spoilers said 2 people come back then it changed to 3 people come back. Do you think one more person gets back in? If so then it was a good decision to get rid of Shawn - cause a Shawn, Burton, Michelle could really have happened again.   Top

mtopaz 2167 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 10-31-03, 12:41 PM (EST) 3. "RE: How the rest of the game will play out" I agree that the outcasts did well in last night's challenge. Motivated by revenge and the desire to show that they should not have been voted off, that spurned them to kick ass. They got a big boost from Burton. That being said, I think Lil has quite a bit of bitterness toward her former tribe mates. Did you see her face when they were standing on the mat before the challenge - her mouth was turned down in a scowl equal to Burton's. On a thread in Basher's, agreed with Veruca Salt who suggested that the two returning tribe members are selected by the opposing team. If each tribe got to vote on which Outcast could join their team, it seems highly likely that Morgan would choose Burton, and Drake would choose Lil as the best possible choice of the booted Morgan tribe. If Drake makes Lil feel welcomed and part of a team, I think she will appreciate that - remember, she never got that from her original tribe mates. So why would she be willing to team up with Burton to oust Drake, in favor of the very tribe mates who dismissed her as "old" and "useless." I think the merge occurs after one more tribal council, which is attended by Drake (with Burton on their side, Morgan kicks Drake's ass). Drake cannot vote out their newest tribe member, so most likely Jon goes. After that, the two tribes merge and individual immunity begins. At that point, there are other much larger targets than Lil, so she makes it far in the game.   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 10-31-03, 02:26 PM (EST) 4. "RE: How the rest of the game will play out" LAST EDITED ON 10-31-03 AT 02:48 PM (EST) I'm not sure it'll be so simple. 1.) It doesn't look like there's a merge next week (see the challenge vidcaps - although there is a possibility of an Africa-like merge where both tribal mats were present at the II). It's also probably wiser to keep the tribes apart to let the new people get themselves reacquainted with the game. I'm leaning towards Burton and Lil coming back and being sent to the opposite tribe that they started on, respectively. 2.) Logically, and due to alliance revalations from Darrah and the way Tijuana seems to be reacting to Andrew's "leadership", it looks like Jon and Andrew will be the first to go should their tribe lose immunity. 3.) I'm certainly not rooting for Jon yet. I'm not sure why Jeff would be either. If he isn't outright lying, I'm guessing Morgan gets another taste of tribal council and Andrew is sent packing by Darrah's (Really Tijuana's, I'd say, but the info comes from Darrah) "group of three". Of course, Jon's new plan could be the one we're supposed to cheer him for, but I don't really think anyone is going to support Jon over Christa, Rupert and Sandra at this point, unless we see some majorly out of character footage. Like seal clubbing. 4.) At nine, I'm betting on a Drake loss, since we have evidence that Burton sticks around for the family challenge and there's no way the Morgan three would keep him if he wasn't immune. And at this one, the only result I can see is Jon going. Christa and Rupert have to stick around for the family challenge (Although Rupert's spoiler is a bit different concerning that one), Lil's immune, and I don't think Sandra will be in any more danger than she is now. She may seem temperamental, but the girl knows when to not rock the boat. Obviously, Jon's "brilliant" plan fails. 5.) And if Sandra leaves before the merge, the fun stuff doesn't get to happen. As much as I'd love a Drake love-fest until the end, I don't see it in the cards. The editing for Sandra and many comments about her lately have all been going towards one thing. Sandra always votes with the majority. Sandra doesn't care who goes as long as it's not her. Also keep in mind a lot of what others say about her snakish behaviour isn't being shown on the Thursday broadcast. It's being hidden from the regular viewing audience. Is this leading us somewhere? 6.) I'm thinking yes. Take a look at this. If that is to be believed, and the filming dates we have are correct, Rupert had to have been voted out at TC9. The merge. And why would this happen? 7.) There are two possibilities. Either a deadlock, or Lillian decides to vote with the old Morgans and Burton. I think it's less likely that Lillian would go back to her old tribe at this point. Per her comments, she doesn't seem to like, trust or even know any of them all too well right now. However, her "at the time" tag she used in post-boot interviews is a bit telling. She probably does get back in with them somehow since "at the time" infers that they changed in her opinion later on. I just don't think it'll happen right here and now. 8.) So from certain reports about her (Ex. #1, #2, #3, etc.), we can say that a jumpy Sandra isn't good for anyone's alliance. And honestly, I don't know how it happens at all, but either Sandra switches sides pre-TC, or she switches her vote to avoid a purple rock (Or this, though I'm not sure how true that info is likely to be.). 7.) From this point on, I'm not sure on the exact boot order. As per the reasons above, I do think Lil gets back in with her own tribe. I don't think this definitely means she formed an alliance to the end with them, however. It could just be friendship. And honestly, if Burton and Lil are thinking, they'll hook themselves up with Christa and/or Sandra, as the other Morgans aren't likely to want them in the final three. Also, I have no clue about the "Big Lie". I'm just going to assume it has to do with Jon's failure of a plan or with the betrayal. SCENARIO A 10/9.) Andrew/Jon 8.) Rupert Assuming non-stupidity on Burton and Lil's parts: 7/6/5/4.) Christa/Sandra, Darrah, Ryan O., Tijuana in any order. As per the final three description we have: 3.) Burton 2.) Lillian 1.) Christa/Sandra SCENARIO B 10/9.) Andrew/Jon 8.) Rupert If good gameplay is too much to ask for: 7/6/5.) Christa, Sandra, Burton 4.) Tijuana SN doesn't think she makes the F4, but it would take major explaining to keep Burton over her in this particular scenario. As per the final three description we have: 3.) Ryan O. 2.) Lillian - I'm guessing she's here by virtue of immunity. 1.) Darrah This Speculation has been brought to you by my day off.   Top

ExInterper 3093 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-31-03, 02:58 PM (EST) 5. "RE: How the rest of the game will play out" I think the editing of Andrew and Jon last episode may support this theory. Who were the two people who were so angry about the Outcasts returning, and dead set against letting the "losers" get a foothold in the game? Andrew and Jon. Perhaps this is foreshadowing that their demise is orchestrated by the outcasts in the first two boots?   Top

I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-31-03, 04:05 PM (EST) 6. "RE: How the rest of the game will play out" i still think Ryan is more likely to go than Andrew, but that's not all that important keeping Burton over Tijuana isn't taht hard to explain if Darrah makes a final 3 pact with Lillian and Burton. Then, if she makes the F2, she has left them with the option of voting for an outcast who they think doesn't deserve it, or she who turned her back on them. Ryan can also go much earlier in this scenario since it allows for Burton to be the bearded man, and I just really don't see him going much farther, especially if Darrah does (part of the reason being neither one has had anything resembling a story line so far, so I can't see them both in the F3 or 4) then again, this all assumes taht the Darrah/Lillian F2 spoiler is correct   Top

Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-31-03, 04:12 PM (EST) 7. "RE: How the rest of the game will play out" Very nice analysis. I think that if Lill and Burton team up in an unbreakable alliance, they won't go for a straight pagonging of either tribe. Instead they'll pick off people from each tribe in a way that assures neither tribe outnumbers the other by more than two people. Example: Ep.7b - they align with Drakes to boot Andrew (6-4 vote) Ep.8 - they align with Morgans to boot Jon (5-4 vote) Ep.9 - they stay aligned with Morgans to boot Rupert (5-3 vote) Ep.10 - back to the Drakes to boot RyanO (4-3 vote) Ep.11 - back to Morgans to boot Sandra (4-2 vote) Ep.12 - back to Drake (Christa) to boot T or D (3-2 vote). This is the last chance for Christa, T and D to save themselves. Do you think they'll realize this? Maybe. Could be an exciting episode.   Top

FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-31-03, 04:48 PM (EST) 9. "The flaw in this plan" The outcasts wavering between Drake and Morgan would only work if Drake and Morgan acted as sitting ducks. Let's say that your model holds for Ep. 7b and Ep. 8. Chances are good that the remaining Drakes and Morgans would see the writing on the wall. If they were smart (which is asking a lot of these guys most of the time), they'd align with each other for 2 TCs to axe the Outcasts (barring immunity, of course). Then, with the numbers down to 3 per side, they could duke it out to the finish. If the merge doesn't happen until Ep. 9 (as in Thailand), and the merge happens at even strength, the above model could be adjusted by 2 episodes. That would mean Outcasts ally with ex-Drake to oust an ex-Morgan, then with ex-Morgan to oust an ex-Drake. This would put the balance at 2 Drake, 2 Morgan, 2 Outcast. At that point the ex-Drakes and ex-Morgans could still join up for 2 TCs and oust the Outcasts (again, barring immunity). Still, the ex-Drakes and ex-Morgans would be better served in simply joining up to oust the 2 wildcards right off the bat in a late merge scenario (which is likely, otherwise why go through the ritual of having the Outcasts pick buffs from an urn if you're gonna merge before the next TC?), ESPECIALLY if one of the Outcasts is Burton who could go on a serious II tear. Fester   Top

I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-31-03, 05:00 PM (EST) 10. "RE: The flaw in this plan" good points fester, which makes it seem unlikely to me that the outcasts would join morgan. morgan almost assuredly will win the next IC, if it is for tribal immunity, which means a Drake will go next (most likely Jon). Unless someone (e.g. Darrah) makes a final 3 pact with the outcasts, it makes much more sense for them to side with the drakes who are lesser in number (so they make F5 based on triabl lines rather than F6), and then, if they must switch, do so when only one or two morgans (F7 or F6) remain in the game to take out the drakes. curious   Top

Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-31-03, 07:16 PM (EST) 12. "RE: The flaw in this plan" I agree with what both you and Fester have posted, but I wouldn't give the Drakes and Morgans the credit to actually band up to boot outcasts. Their arrogance and fear will keep them from trusting each other. I think Drake might be willing to trust the ghosts for two booting cycles, but they'd get screwed on the second one. Here's how it could play out (ghosts aren't in the counts). A B 4 4 Ghosts determine bootee 4 3 Ghosts still determine bootee, but pull a switch 3 3 The tribes could band together here, but if they don't: 3 2 Tribe A would be too arrogant to band up. 2 2 Okay, now they should band together, but 2-way alliance might keep them from doing this. What I think is far more likely, and smart, is for one person to team up with the 2 ghosts, but keep that alliance under wraps until absolutely necessary. I would guess it could come out when the tribes are down to two apiece. Who knows? All I can say is that the dynamics have suddenly become more interesting. -P   Top

badger 1273 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-31-03, 04:24 PM (EST) 8. "RE: How the rest of the game will play out" LAST EDITED ON 10-31-03 AT 04:25 PM (EST) i'm going to go against the prevailing wisdom that says the morgans dominate the final numbers: my analysis is based on that wonderful yahoo spoiler of frankz's, on gambling spoilers, and on (admittedly) creative interpretations of other info: 10. andrew ("evidence" -- the yahoo spoiler doesn't list him as a "star". he'll be targeted by the drakes, who see him as "leader." lil will be back for blood. he's not part of darrah's alliance) 9. rhino (ok, no evidence for this really. the rupert-christa-sandra voting block will still be in place. lil didn't seem to like him. let's just pretend that rupert wins immunity this week, ok?) 8. rupert (wife summoned for family-reward, but sent home early) 7. darrah/t 6. t/darrah 5. christa 4. jon (jon and burton, not shawn are the last to fly out. COME ON! i know i'm not the only person who confused these 2!!) 3. burton (our bearded man in F3) 2./1. lil/sandra please feel free to shoot this down. it's so full of holes, it'll sink almost as fast as osten   Top

Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-31-03, 06:43 PM (EST) 11. "RE: How the rest of the game will play out" As noted in the "Mrs. Rupert goes to Panama" thread... We have a sketchy idea of 5 of the Final 8: Darrah (Bradley Williams) Christa (Peter Waydo) Burton (his mom) Lillian (Lonnie Morris) Rupert (Laura Boneham) _________ _________ _________ The blanks rounding out the unknown people: Andrew Jon Ryan O Sandra Tijuana Here's where it gets tricky. If Drake goes to TC this week, we have two boot options: Sandra or Jon, if the Family Rumors are to be believed. We also still need our Big Lie. If this lie is indeed "brilliant," that would mean that it helps Jon get through a sticky situation somehow. Since we haven't seen the Big Lie yet, I am going to assume that Jon will get through this episode. So, maybe Sandra goes? I admit this is very unlikely, since she is alligned with Rupert and Christa. The only way I see her going is if... A. The Big Lie kills her B. If Burton comes over to Drake, and Rupert/Burton/Jon vote her out. I'm beginning to wonder if the Big Lie has to do with Trish. Maybe he'll blame Sandra somehow? I dunno. I'm still against a Sandra boot. Morgan? Andrew, Tijuana, and Ryan O are our only chances. I think Andrew's number is up. MB really wants us to like the twist. IMO, the person who is editted to hate the twist the most, will get the boot. And that's Andrew. 10. Andrew goes I believe the Rupert spoiler right now about Mrs. Boneham going home prematurely, and, since it's the merge, I can see a Rupert boot. 10. Andrew 9. ??? 8. Rupert 7. ??? 6. ??? 5. ??? 4. ??? 3. ??? 2. ??? 1. ??? There's way too many if's going around right now though to speculate about Ep8. I'll work on that next week. Just my guess though: 10. Andrew 9. Ryan O 8. Rupert 7. Jon 6. Tijuana 5. Darrah 4. Sandra 3. Burton 2. Lillian 1. Christa Alt. 10. Andrew 9. Sandra 8. Rupert 7. Jon 6. Christa 5. Ryan O 4. Tijuana 3. Burton 2. Lillian 1. Darrah JSlice is off da hizzle, yo   Top

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