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aethelstan 4435 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 10-27-03, 02:48 PM (EST) "Boot of the week" In antipation of SherpaDave's call for a vote (which will happen tomorrow evening), I wanted to open up a thread for discussion on who's safe and who's on the hot seat this week. Naturally, there is the possibility of a re-entry but that's another thread... It would seem based on previous and promos for this week and next that a minimum of 1 person will be eliminated this week and 1 person next week. Naturally, for every resurrected survivor returned fully to the game, the number of torches snuffed this week and next goes up by one. We seem to be closed to finished with the team portion of survivor and are moving quickly toward individual challenges/rewards. Survivors will be jockeying for position within their alliances. Is now the time when you try to ally yourself with someone less likeable than you are (a la Brian in S5)? Or do you try for an F-3 alliance? So who's on the hot seat? Jon: all things being equal and there is a merge before the next TC, Jon is an obvious candidate. Andrew now hates (ok, maybe too strong a word) him and Rupert feels betrayed by him. That's two strikes... Also reported to be pre-jury on some spoiler sites. He's definitely in hot water. Shawn: Was on the outside looking in last episode. Was the agreement between Shawn and Rupert long term or just a matter of convenience to oust Trish? Also reported to be pre-jury on some spoiler sites. I think his status is definitely iffy. Christa: I think she's totally safe. The only reason she was ever rumoured is likely because Snewser's thought she was the blond member of the ghost tribe and not Michelle. Sandra: Seems quite safe too. Loyalty to Rupert and Christa shown by revealing Trish's plot should keep her safe. Rupert: Liked by all (most) but as he said in the last TC. He is a threat to win many II and no-one wants to go against him in F2. When will there be enough in agreement that he needs to go? On the other hand, Mr411 suggests his wife traveled to Panama for the family reward. So, he seems fairly safe this week. Andrew: Is he the one Jeff was talking about when he said (misquoted, no doubt) there was one guy he wanted to fail then he did something to make Jeff like him (huge performance in last IC?) and then gets shown the door? Also, Yahoo spoiler suggests he could be gone as does a weight spoiler. As a leader, he is always a target but will his tribe show him loyalty since he practically single-handedly won them the last IC? My guess is he is gone in the next two weeks. Ryan: Has always been a candidate to go because of the spoilers but I'm beginning to suspect that those were only red herrings and that he could well be the F3 male. I'm going to go on the record and say he makes the jury at worst. Osten: His best chances of sticking around is the likelihood that a) they want him to be their f2 opponent because no one will vote for such a quitter or b) he was dogging it on purpose and will shows his mettle in the IIs. Misdirections shows him quitting. Spoiler community can only hope.... Tijuana: Has been UTR for the most part this season and yet still shown in a decision-making capacity. No reason to doubt at this time that she'll go far. Darrah: It seems to me that she is like Kathy in S4 and Jan in S5 amongst others in that had their tribe lost early or once more, they would have been sent packing but instead they make it all the way to F3. It could be the case again here. And, of course, since bebekid says that she will make it to the family reunion show, who am I to disagree? That's all folks! -aethelstan   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Boot of the week Brownroach 10-27-03 1    RE: Boot of the week aethelstan 10-27-03 2        RE: Boot of the week Brownroach 10-27-03 3            must be a conspiracy cqvenus 10-27-03 9  RE: Boot of the week Brownroach 10-27-03 4    RE: Boot of the week I_AM_HE 10-27-03 5        RE: Boot of the week PepeLePew13 10-27-03 7            RE: Boot of the week LeftPinky 10-28-03 20    RE: Boot of the week Blow by Blow 10-27-03 6        RE: Boot of the week rose 10-27-03 8            RE: Boot of the week Brownroach 10-28-03 18        RE: Boot of the week hearkittykitty 10-28-03 13            RE: Boot of the week Blow by Blow 10-28-03 25  RE: Boot of the week Brad Lascelle 10-28-03 10  RE: Boot of the week Nash 10-28-03 11    RE: Boot of the week Nash 10-28-03 12        RE: Boot of the week VerucaSalt 10-28-03 14            RE: Boot of the week Breezy 10-28-03 16                RE: Boot of the week VerucaSalt 10-28-03 17  RE: Boot of the week KObrien_fan 10-28-03 15    RE: Boot of the week Blow by Blow 10-28-03 26    RE: Boot of the week pmspml5 10-29-03 32  The misdirection factor Brownroach 10-28-03 19    RE: The misdirection factor aethelstan 10-28-03 21        RE: The misdirection factor Brownroach 10-28-03 22            RE: The misdirection factor ElroyJetson 10-28-03 23                RE: The misdirection factor Brownroach 10-28-03 28            RE: The misdirection factor VerucaSalt 10-28-03 24                RE: The misdirection factor Brownroach 10-28-03 27  how will "shawn and jon" fly out to... badger 10-29-03 29    RE: how will "shawn and jon" fly ou... Bebo 10-29-03 30    RE: how will "shawn and jon" fly ou... Brownroach 10-29-03 31        RE: how will "shawn and jon" fly ou... Round Robin 10-29-03 35            RE: how will "shawn and jon" fly ou... Devious Weasel 10-30-03 40                RE: how will "shawn and jon" fly ou... hrc2u 10-30-03 41  RE: Boot of the week Nash 10-29-03 33    RE: Boot of the week Brownroach 10-29-03 34  RE: Boot of the week NTK 10-30-03 36  RE: Boot of the week Nash 10-30-03 37    RE: Boot of the week Round Robin 10-30-03 39

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-27-03, 04:11 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Boot of the week" It's really impopssible to try to figure this out because we don't know IF anyone will be booted out via a TC this week, or if they will get removed from the game by means beyond their tribemates' control. If there is a voting situation, I think either Osten or Ryan O. would go from Morgan. I'm not sure who from Drake. But I think Morgan is going to suffer initially from the twist, somehow.   Top

aethelstan 4435 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 10-27-03, 04:15 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Boot of the week" LAST EDITED ON 10-27-03 AT 04:16 PM (EST) I think 'none' is a very appropriate and very real possibility. Thanks for the reminder, BR. That may well be my vote when Sherpa calls the roll. -aethelstan (@#$% can't type...)   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-27-03, 04:40 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Boot of the week" Yes, what exactly will we be voting ON this week, anyway? And is Webby going to adjust Spoiler Island? This Ep is set up to pick individual challenge winners as if there's going to be a merge.   Top

cqvenus 9765 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-27-03, 07:59 PM (EST) 9. "must be a conspiracy" see MB figures that since he can't really do anything about the fansites, he might as well ram a huge... you know. so he's intentionally screwing with webby and therefore all the rest of us. cannot stand that MB sometimes - did I ever tell you guys what I thought "EP" stood for?   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-27-03, 06:15 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Boot of the week" Well, maybe we can speculate on this better now that TDT and Phoenix have learned that two Ghosties are coming back, and Morgan and Drake must each vote someone out. I think Osten and Ryan O. are the top candidates for Morgan. Osten is featured somewhat heavily in the previews, though, which is probably misdirection, so Ryan O. seems likeliest to go. Who would Drake boot? Christa is there for the loved one RC, Rupert is there until at least right before it. That leaves Sandra, Jon and Shawn. Snewser had upgraded Sandra and Jon to the jury. So maybe it's finally Shawn's turn to go this week.   Top

I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-27-03, 06:50 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Boot of the week" if it is via vote, i'd say jon is more likely than shawn, based on the E6 vote. of course, it wouldn't surprise me at all for shawn to go either   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-27-03, 06:58 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Boot of the week" You'd think that Jon would be more likely to go, as well... however in last episode's post-show preview for next week, we were shown Jon standing up and saying "I did" when Rupert asked who voted for him. I think MB wouldn't expose Jon like that if he was the next boot. Heidi: My biggest assets to the tribe are my athletic skills and my intelligence. I've lost one of them. Jiffy: Which one?   Top

LeftPinky 4150 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 10-28-03, 12:12 PM (EST) 20. "RE: Boot of the week" Pepe, I agree that Jon isn't the Drake boot this week, I see Shawn "pulling a Trish" and trying to get Rupert booted figuring that Rupert would never suspect after their deal last week. Christa & Sandra won't break ranks with Rupert yet, so Shawn is this weeks Drake boot. Morgan boot has to be Ryan O.... Osten has way too much face time in the previews and a Ryan boot would follow the spoilers of "Ryan gets booted in a twist." It wouldn't surprise me, however to see Osten as the first merged tribe boot in episode 7B next week. He won't be capable to win a challenge (even over Lil) and the Drakes on the merged tribe are going to hate him. They will get together with Lil to boot Osten. Just my 2 cents.   Top

Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-27-03, 06:52 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Boot of the week" I agree with your original assessments and the comments added by BR. What I'm thinking about right now (and what the Survivors must have been thinking about) is that post-merge you want to be in a solid 2-person alliance with someone who is a) able to win immunities and help cover you, b) not so likeable that they're a threat if you make final 2, c) clever enough to mislead others, and most importantly, d) not going to screw you before f2. Looking at each tribe, here's how I rank people on those conditions: Drake Andrew - Immunities (+), Likeable (+/-), Clever (+), Trustworthy (-). Total score 2.5 Osten - Immunities (+/-), Likeable (-), Clever (+/-), Trustworthy (+/-). Total score 1.5. RyanO - Immunities (+), Likeable (+), Clever (+/-), Trustworthy (+). Total score 3.5. Tijuana - Immunities (+/-), Likeable (+/-), Clever (+), Trustworthy (+). Total score 3.0. Darrah - Immunities (+/-), Likeable (-), Clever (-), Trustworthy (+/-). Total score 1.0. Morgan Rupert - Immunities (+), Likeable (+), Clever (+/-), Trustworthy (+). Total score 3.5. Sandra - Immunities (-), Likeable (+/-), Clever (+/-), Trustworthy (+/-). Total score 1.5. Christa - Immunities (+/-), Likeable (+/-), Clever (+/-), Trustworthy (+). Total score 2.5. Jon - Immunities (-), Likeable (-), Clever (+/-), Trustworthy (-). Total score 0.5. Shawn - Immunities (+), Likeable (-), Clever (-), Trustworthy (-). Total score 1.0. The point of this ranking is that those with the highest scores and those with the lowest are least likely to be able to form a solid 2-person alliance. Those with scores in the middle are most likely to be able to form an alliance. Looking at the scores, RyanO, Osten, Rupert and Jon are all in trouble, alliance-wise. Andrew, Tijuana, and Christa are in the best shape. For the Morgans, I wouldn't be surprised if Andrew and Tijuana had a solid alliance. On the Drake side, I think there's a strong alliance between Rupert and Christa, with Christa having the most to gain if she's willing to knife Rupert before F2. I think Morgans will go farther in the game, so it might not matter who's paired up at Drake. Another word regarding immunity challenges - there's this myth out there that Rupert is single-handedly winning challenges for the Morgans. It's true that in the first couple of episodes his strength and willpower were coming out on top of Osten's, but we've all seen that Osten quits when the going gets tough. If future Individual challenges rely more on aerobic strength (running, swimming, climbing) then I think Rupert won't finish in the top three. I'm hoping that some of the Survivors have made this same assessment and are comfortable bringing Rupert farther in the game ('cause he's fun to watch), knowing that he can likely be beaten. I don't think Jon or Sandra could beat him at anything, but the rest of the group could, which makes him much less of a threat to go an II run (ala Colby). So to sum up - I think the most likely 2-person alliances are: Andrew/Tijuana Rupert/Christa Somewhat-likely are: Andrew/RyanO (just because they've been spending a lot of time together working on the camp) Andrew/Osten (because Andrew's teaming up with everyone and knows Osten can be beaten at every aspect of the game) Unlikely to be in any decent 2-person alliance: Sandra, Jon, Shawn, Darrah. -P   Top

rose 313 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 10-27-03, 07:44 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Boot of the week" Very nice sum-up Blow by Blow... I'm going to have to say Shawn has my vote this week, but I truly think that NO ONE is safe... particularly if they do a complete tribe wipe out.. BR, where is the info on the two returning players? I missed it? a wonderful kyngsladye original   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-28-03, 10:33 AM (EST) 18. "RE: Boot of the week" It was on Phoenix first. VerucaSalt posted it in the G/D/M challenge thread yesterday. Forehead and I think she should have embraced her inner Dawness and started a new thread for it. VerucaSalt 597 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-27-03, 04:50 PM (EST) 127. "RE: The G/D/M Challenge" http://resources.survivorphoenix.com/postnuke/html/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=827 TDT and Survivor Phoenix have learned that the Ghost Tribe will only get one chance to bring players back into the game. As we reported earlier (see All Booted Players on Ghost Tribe), all of the players previously voted out of Survivor Pearl Islands will return to compete against the Drake and Morgan tribes for a chance to get back in the hunt for the $1 million bounty. Read more... As initially reported (see Ghost Tribe Competes), should the Ghost Tribe win, Drake and Morgan will have to vote out a player each. Since we have various spoilers of returning players, it is most likely that we will indeed see a Ghost Tribe win on Thursday. We have also learned that if it wins the mega challenge, the Ghost Tribe will then vote 2 people back in to replace the newly booted players and that individual players cannot vote for themselves. With the Ghost Tribe comprised of an equal number of ex-Drakes and ex-Morgans, it is probable that the returning players will feature one from each tribe. Descriptions by various spoilers of returning players were said to fit best Lillian and Burton. Thursday's 3 tribe mega-challenge features an escape-type challenge, as initially reported by Griffe in a post at Sucks. The challenge involves a race to free tribe mates from a series of enclosures, in a challenge reminiscent both of Thailand and Amazon. Run, dig under, crawl, untie, pull, dig, reach for key, unchain, win. The previews for Episode 7 feature Jeff Probst calmly addressing Drake and Morgan players with a simple "Your past is come back to haunt you." Cue to the booted players emerging from the jungle under a purple tribal flag and sporting purple bandanas adorned with a skull & cross-bones logo. Clearly a jaw-dropping moment for the audience, not to mention for the players still in the game. For once, Mark Burnett's pre-season hyperbole does not disappoint. On another note, good news for Rupertmania. We have reason to believe that Rupert should be around a bit longer. Still developing...   Top

hearkittykitty 75 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-28-03, 08:24 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Boot of the week" Are you scoring the survivors on how you see them, or as how their tribemates see them? Sandra, for example, would be seen as very trustworthy by Rupert and Christa, and maybe even Shawn -- Jon would be the only one not trusting Sandra. Her tribe may also see her as clever for having arranged Trish's boot, as well as for her stellar performance in the market. Andrew would be seen as 100% trustworthy by his tribe as well -- he followed a specific plan with his alliance and has never waivered from it. Osten, as viewed by his tribe, IMO is not at all clever. Shawn's trustworthy score should possibly go up because he's voted with Rupert/Christa/Sandra every single time -- he has yet to betray any of them. Although they don't like him - by now they may feel they can trust him.   Top

Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-28-03, 02:22 PM (EST) 25. "RE: Boot of the week" I was trying to score them on how their tribemates see them. Regarding Sandra -- Trish and Michelle in their post-boot interviews said that Sandra is willing to vote for anyone as long as it's not her. Now, they may not know what they're talking about since they got the boot, but I have to give their comments some weight. I think she's probably somewhere in the middle which is why I gave her the (+/-) rating. As for her being clever, I just don't see her being a real schemer in this game. I see her with some loyalties and self-preservation tactics, which is why I gave her a (+/-) here as well. Her performance in the market had more to do with her ability to speak Spanish and probably isn't relevant to the ongoing game. Regarding Andrew -- I didn't give him points for being trustworthy for a couple of reasons. 1) He didn't bother telling Lill she was being booted. This only matters if Lill comes back into the game and all signs are pointing to that happening. 2) He seems to be getting chummy with Rupert and that might give his tribe pause. But you may be right, his tribe might see him as a trustworthy dude, which would work in his favor in any phony alliances. Regarding Osten -- You're right, there's no way his tribe is viewing him as clever. The only reason I gave him any points is on the off chance that he's faking his wimpiness and has told one other tribemate about this. That tribemate would give him clever points, but the rest wouldn't. So yeah, he should probably be a (-) for clever. Regarding Shawn -- His vote has blown in the wind at each TC and he's just saving his own butt. I don't think the tribe views him as at all trustworthy and exit interviews confirm this. I leave his score at (-) for trustworthy. Taking all your comments at face value, Sandra would bump up slightly, but still not enough to be in a strong alliance position, Andrew would bump up and would be in an even stronger position, Osten would fall and be even worse off and Shawn would nudge up a bit but still not be in a strong position. Overall, my view that Andrew and Tijuana are in the best position for a two-person alliance hasn't changed. I bet they try to bring Osten along for laughs. -P   Top

Brad Lascelle 26 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 10-28-03, 02:29 AM (EST) 10. "RE: Boot of the week" First off, the TDT scenario strikes me as excessively confusing and unorthodox for a Survivor-twist... especially one that helps save Burnett's buddy Burton. Three tribal councils in one episode, two returning players... I've been trying to defend the whole concept of the 'Ghost Tribe' resurrection twist, but I think the criticism is warranted if this is how things go down. With that being said, I can buy both Shawn and Ryan O. getting tossed despite my lack of faith in the Vicvega 'Ryan gets screwed by the twist' spoiler. What I think merits some discussion is the logic behind the 'Ghost Tribe' electing amongst themselves two people to return to compete in the game. How does the vote shake out? Do they HAVE to pick one Morgan and one Drake to return? And if so, how is it decided? Here's the only way that makes logical sense to me: Nicole picks a Morgan to return between Skinny Ryan and Lillian = Lillian Skinny Ryan picks a Morgan to return between Nicole and Lillian = Lillian Lillian picks a Morgan to return between Nicole and Skinny Ryan = Skinny Ryan Lillian beats Skinny Ryan 2 votes to 1. Burton picks a Drake to return between Michelle and Trish = Michelle Michelle picks a Drake to return between Burton and Trish = Burton Trish picks a Drake to return between Burton and Michelle = Burton Burton beats Michelle 2 votes to 1. Any other ideas? == Brad Lascelle <blascelle@gto.net>   Top

Nash 437 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 10-28-03, 07:47 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Boot of the week" This is a difficult week. If there is elimination it will likely not be at TC. Could be Ryan O. "victim of twist" or Osten "quits". If Drake I see Shawn. The jon stuff is misdirection.   Top

Nash 437 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 10-28-03, 07:56 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Boot of the week" See TDT http://www.truedorktimes.com/s7/spoilers/index.htm There have been some updates and they see Lil and Burton returning with most vunerable, Jon, Shawn, Osten and Ryan O. and they peg Rupie as safe this week and have upgraded him to "Jury?"   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 10-28-03, 08:25 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Boot of the week" I do wonder if this would be the week where we are supposedly to see Jon fall on his face and Jeff wants to pick him up and Jon earns a begrudging respect. This could fit with Jon admitting to Rupert that he voted for him and we all know how "scary" Rupert's wrath could be. Jon certainly could be falling on his face here explaining why he felt he had to do what he did and be forthright about it earning some begrudging respect. Also, I still am wondering about the lie......... BUT for me to even go there will get me in a tailspin so I'm stopping myself. For a two part episode, I don't think we may see the GT voting scenario until the second part personally. How many TC's are we going to have here for pete the pelican's sake? I think we might only see the TC's for the existing players since the whole premise of the Ghost's competing this initial time is strictly to earn the right to come back; since they win, they earned it and Drake and Morgan send a player home. I wonder if "You May Be Going Home" said by Jeff was edited perhaps and the statement was REALLY "TWO OF you maybe going home" from an explanation that if Morgan and Drake lose this both tribes boot someone. Osten and his quitting has happened too much and Andrew has yet to make a reasonable decision and I doubt he will again. As BR and I were discussing "One Castaway makes a monumental decision" could refer to Osten either quitting (again) or Andrew deciding whether it is finally time to let him go. This would be a tougher decision than say Drake hence only ONE castaway. On the flip side it could refer to a Drake as well in some fashion, maybe Jon, who knows or perhaps Sandra as she was already privy to discussions about booting Rupert. Would she entertain that again with Shawn and Jon? Going by "vibe" only I doubt this. So vulnerability we may see the Rhino/Osten/Darrah situation with Andrew making the "wrong" decision Over at Drake, Jon would appear the most vulnerable BUT we also know Shawn was SOLELY brought into the alliance by Rupert to save Rupert. Rupert, Christa and Sandra doubtfully and miraculously changed their feelings about him; Rupert suggested he was going to go Week 2 plus with this GT, Rupert, et al no doubt are thinking even MORE about mergers, etc. since it has been brought up quite a few times in the past episodes; perhaps they feel they should cut some losses now with Shawn who is an II threat while Jon could easily be chopped down at merger. We may see the back to life challenge in part two then which will result in The Ghosts voting their two people back in then the following week to keep things a bit less chaotic.   Top

Breezy 18380 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-28-03, 08:46 AM (EST) 16. "RE: Boot of the week" Are we sure it's Jon that Jiffy has a change of heart about? Someone up in this thread suggested it's Andrew after the IC last week that Jiffy changed his mind about. I think that could be true.   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 10-28-03, 09:18 AM (EST) 17. "RE: Boot of the week" As for his dislike of Dalton, Probst says he eventually developed a grudging respect for the 29-year-old contestant. "Here's where it gets twisted: That same guy you're hoping falls on his face, the moment he does fall on his face, you instantly want him to get up. And then you're pulling for him."   Top

KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-28-03, 08:46 AM (EST) 15. "RE: Boot of the week" Bear with me folks, this post is long. I think that the next 2 episodes represent 3 days of life on the island. The way things will play out IMO is this: They get together for what should be an RC, and Jiffy springs the GT on them saying "Your past has come back to haunt you" and "you may be going home". Every time this season when Jiffy has extinguished the torches of booted players, he has said his line just a tad different from previous seasons. I went back last night and watched the reading of votes from all TC's from Lill to Trish. In previous years he says "the 3rd person voted out of the Marqueses is ..." This year he says "the 3rd person voted out of Morgan is...Lill, the 1st person voted out of Drake is...Burton, the 2nd person voted out of Drake is..." well you get the picture. The only odd one out was Trish, for her he did say "the 6th person voted out of the Pearl Islands is Trish." I think that this was MB's way of showing that a ghost tribe was forming, though their torches had been snuffed, they were merely voted out of their tribes and not off the island. Why Trish was read as voted off the Pearl Islands, I don't know, but I don't have her making it back on the show anyway. This leads to my next point that when they get resurrected they wont be coming back to their tribes, there will be no more Morgan or Drake. They have the challenge we see with the jailbreak, and if the GT wins, they get to vote 2 players back in. I agree from all that have said on this thread that it will be Burton and Lill. I believe they will replace Rhino and Shawn. This will all happen in the first part this week. The tribe makes the merge at 10 and go off to live together as Balboa with black buffs...thus ends E7A...to be continued. As fill for the episodes MB uses flashbacks to the GT prior to resurrection. Added in will be blurbs and pieces from the rest of the players reaction to the twist. At the merge of 10 we will witness the big lie, not sure if it will be told at the end of 7A or beginning of 7B but it is coming. It may even be told by Burton which could explain why he seemed to know for sure in his early show interview that it hadn't occured yet. So episode 7B is the merged tribe and then one TC that is based on II. Lill wins the first II in fullfilment of the spoiler that when the older woman returns she wins one more immunity. The one guy with the most enemies who is left vulnerable...is Jonny Fairplay. Jon gets the boot at TC to end 7B, which ends 3 days of island life and keeps things right on track with 9 going into E8 and no recap show for us this season (thank you MB). So at the end of E7 we have the 9 merged jury and F2 of (and in no particular order): Andrew, Darrah, Lill, Osten, Rupert, Burton, Christa, Sandra and Tijuana. Getting closer to how Morgan has so many people in the predicted F4 spoilers...   Top

Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-28-03, 02:37 PM (EST) 26. "RE: Boot of the week" I agree with you (and others) that RyanO and Shawn are the most likely to get booted if Lill and Burton come back. For the Drakes, Shawn and Burton are interchangeable. For the Morgans, Andrew doesn't want a physical threat (RyanO) around any longer. I'm not entirely convinced that the Ghost tribe gets to decide who comes back into the game. It seems entirely plausible that Drake and Morgan get to decide for themselves, possibly in TC. Wouldn't that be fun? Each person gets to write down a boot name and a return name. Talk about the need for a lot of strategy discussion before TC!! Either way, I think Lill and Burton are the logical picks. It's kind of funny, at first I felt bad for Morgan that their tribe was so packed with losers. But when it comes to TC, this just makes it easier to vote cohesively and wind up with a stronger 5-person tribe. The Drakes on the other hand have been all torn up by their TCs because they didn't have a clear subset of losers. -P   Top

pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-29-03, 01:07 PM (EST) 32. "RE: Boot of the week" I may be going way out on a limb here but - the "Worst Nightmare" shots of Andrew are after the challenge and back at their camp. - I still say - Morgan loses and votes off Osten cause he keeps threatening to quit. Andrew is all neatly combed - no shirt on as in previous confessionals - he wears his coat - and before the challenge he has his coat on. Just my thought   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-28-03, 12:09 PM (EST) 19. "The misdirection factor" Most of us seem to agree that the next Morgan boot is between Osten and Rhino, and the next Drake boot is between Jon and Shawn, if the TDT/Phoenix spoiler is correct. The misdirection factor favors Shawn and Rhino, neither of whom were shown in the previews as targets, though they are both shown in the web challenge caps. Jon was seen in a post-TC confrontation with Rupert, with Rupert saying Jon is now a pain-in-the-butt. Osten was featured looking glum, causing Andrew to speculate that he wants to "check out" of the game again. I think the "monumental decision" will revolve around Osten -- Should he quit? Should he stay? Should Andrew finally get rid of him? But nothing will happen; Tijuana will convince Andrew to keep him around once again, much to viewers' dismay everywhere. Similarly, since we see Jon admitting his vote to Rupert, I think they will hash it all out then and there, and, while Rupert may feel that much worse about Jon, he'll still be less persona non grata than Shawn. Michelle said about Jon in one chat: Too many people saw Jon as valuable... Jon's value is that he is unlikeable, and therefore useful as a post-merge shield or even an F2 opponent. Trish said that Jon told them what happened when he went to loot Morgan. Rupert, at least, should realize the strategic implications of that: Jon is the Drake that Morgan will most want to vote against come the merge. I do expect Jon to be the first post-merge boot (Ep 7B) at this point. All of Morgan (including the returning Lill, probably) would want to vote against him. I can see Burton throwing in with Morgan rather than side with Drake and risk a tie. He won't feel he owes his old tribemates anything, and would bank on making an IC run at endgame -- his original strategy.   Top

aethelstan 4435 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 10-28-03, 12:22 PM (EST) 21. "RE: The misdirection factor" We must keep in mind last season when Roger was voted out. Many assumed he would be safe because everyone was gunning for him. I think the previews also showed the plotting against Roger (but I could be mistaken). So, it is possible that the promos are telling the truth. -aethelstan   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-28-03, 12:34 PM (EST) 22. "RE: The misdirection factor" At the time we came to the conclusion that MB chose to dispense with his usual subterfuge because he knew his female audience would be thrilled as heck to see Roger get the boot. So the whole episode was basically edited as a countdown to Roger's exit. It really seemed like a "special episode" because it was so contrary to how MB usually edits the show.   Top

ElroyJetson 586 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-28-03, 02:08 PM (EST) 23. "RE: The misdirection factor" BR Apologies if this is re-hash or unplausible. Has there been any discussion or speculation that the members of the 3 tribes somehow compete as individuals. Jeff could basically frame it like this, "OK 3 tribes, we are merging. The first 10 survivors to complete x, y, and z, and the do q are the new Balboa tribe. Everyone else is out of the game." The problems with this is that the losers won't get voted out. They'll get challenged out. Viewers won't like that. This would still support the vidcaps of survivors helping one another since you'll want to keep you allies in the game. I'm rambling....   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-28-03, 03:24 PM (EST) 28. "RE: The misdirection factor" Elroy, a couple of people have mentioned scenarios like this, mavsfan for one I think. But the latest info from TDT/Phoenix has this challenge as strictly a three-tribe challenge, with Morgan and Drake each having to vote a member off if the Ghosties win -- which they do, and then they get to vote two of their own back in).   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 10-28-03, 02:11 PM (EST) 24. "RE: The misdirection factor" Also that might have been another CO problem where a lot of people were jumping on bandwagons that it couldn't be Roger because of information that we were handed that appeared to the contrary as well. Please note the following: From Interview (also in the Lie/Regret thread) Osten: Osten has an interesting next 3 days. The next episode is pretty interesting for Osten. But the next episode is HUGE. So much happens. You either going to love it or say OMG. Lie: the lie hasn't happened. You would not have any idea about the lie but he wouldn't answer whether we already had hints or evidence of it happening yet. It will not change the complexion of the game... it's just the greatest lie ever told on Survivor. Regret: And there is an incident ...an event that one Survivor is going to regret for a long time and that is very close to happening http://survivornews.net/news.php?id=298   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-28-03, 03:16 PM (EST) 27. "RE: The misdirection factor" So the lie is incidental to the game. It's probably not connected to the "regrettable event" in that case.   Top

badger 1273 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-29-03, 10:03 AM (EST) 29. "how will "shawn and jon" fly out together?" i know sherpadave has already started the boot pick thread. but i have a question i'm hoping we can address (and goodness knows that thread isn't the place for discussion). i am curious whether or not people still buy the "shawn and jon fly out together" spoiler, and if so, how they are reconciling the selection of shawn and rhino as this week's boots. thoughts?   Top

Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-29-03, 10:10 AM (EST) 30. "RE: how will "shawn and jon" fly out together?" The actual quote from Wezzie was: "We heard that Shawn and Jon are the last people to leave Isla Contadora on a plane. (Their photos were pointed at.)" There's still one more boot before the jury, so if that's Jon, the spoiler is still satisfied. Here's the link to Wezzie's post: http://pub207.ezboard.com/fsurvivorsucksfrm2.showMessageRange?start=61&stop=78&topicID=16257.topic We really do have guidelines here. Believe it or not, the Guidelines make things more fun. Really.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-29-03, 10:36 AM (EST) 31. "RE: how will "shawn and jon" fly out together?" I've never felt sure exactly what this information means. It could mean they were the last two contestants seen boarding a plane (that also contained other contestants). Wezzie said she originally thought the person meant this was after the entire game was over, but conceded that she really didn't know. But probably all the pre-jury members were removed from Isla Perico and flown out of the Contadora airport at the same time, because the jury members were supposed to have been using the cabins at Isla Perico later. And as Bebo points out there are three pre-jury boots left if two people are returning to the game.   Top

Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-29-03, 10:30 PM (EST) 35. "RE: how will "shawn and jon" fly out together?" I can very easily see both of those guys getting the boot. At one time or another, Rupert, Sandra and Shawn have all been pissed off at Jon, and at one time or another, Ropert, Sandra and Jon have all been pissed off at Shawn. Plus, if Trish is the female returnee instead of Lillian, which I believe will be the case, she has reason to think, not knowing their votes, that both of them might have had something to do with her ouster, especially Shawn. With the Ghosts as probable winners of the return challenge, and as a result of that the possibility of two Drake boots, it is very possible that both Shawn and Jon go, and indeed if the Ghosts DO win, I would be SHOCKED if Shawn is not one of the boots, and I think those of you who finger Jon as a pre-jury boot stand a good chance of being right also. His big mouth, especialy while pillaging Morgan, has made him too many enemies.   Top

Devious Weasel 18756 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-30-03, 05:00 PM (EST) 40. "RE: how will "shawn and jon" fly out together?" All the more reason to try to keep him around and take him to the Final Two with you.   Top

hrc2u 146 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-30-03, 06:24 PM (EST) 41. "RE: how will "shawn and jon" fly out together?" I have to agree DW I would keep Jon for final 2, but man you have to have a whole lot of patiences (sp?) to put up with him. I don't think I could stand him for 39 days, I know take it to bashers. LOL hrc2u   Top

Nash 437 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 10-29-03, 04:26 PM (EST) 33. "RE: Boot of the week" If this means anything last week it was suggested that come Wednesday, there's a spoiler on CBS site which worked last week for Trish. According to what I see, no one is booted.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-29-03, 06:26 PM (EST) 34. "RE: Boot of the week" Good thinking, nash, it was worth a check. I kind of figured it wouldn't work this week, just because of the multiple boot and returning player scenario. And it's always possible CBS caught on from reading the boards and took care of the "problem". We could check again before Ep 7B though.   Top

NTK 109 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-30-03, 09:50 AM (EST) 36. "RE: Boot of the week" Okay, I went with Shawn and Rhino but I'm not getting warm fuzzy feelings about it. Are all the boots going to be in Part 2? Is Osten going to walk off? Even if he does, how would we know he'd regret it? Is Andrew going to regret keeping O around? Or trying to ditch him? Is it Trish or Lil? Or both? How could the much hated Burton and the inept scoutmaster make to the the end, or almost the end?   Top

Nash 437 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 10-30-03, 01:15 PM (EST) 37. "RE: Boot of the week" Well well well Snewser checked off and having Shawn and Osten BOOTED!!!!!!   Top

Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-30-03, 04:58 PM (EST) 39. "RE: Boot of the week" I wouldn't have the balls to bet against Snewser. His record is too good.   Top

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