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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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Sorry for the late posting, but for those following closely, I already posted my opinions on this week in the vote thread earlier this afternoon.

It's no secret that this is another difficult week -- numerous players loom as prime potential bootees for various reasons and the rumors of a ghost tribe and the still unknown "Big Lie" still serve to muddle the waters.

Reward Challenge

Target practice with some cannons. A surf and turf dinner is the reward, but the important thing here is not the dinner but which tribe gets to make a raid on the other, since apparently the raider "makes a stunning confession" to the other tribe. It could just be more CBS PR BS or it could really be plot-worthy, but either way, the facts remain that the Morgans seem to be more focused on keeping their game faces on and will still be down 6-5 at the time of the raid, plus the Drake tribe certainly seems to have more internal strife currently, In the absence of additional info, a Drake member seems more likely to make a confession of sorts, so Drake seems more likely to win.

RC WINNER: DRAKE

Immunity Challenge

Ya, it's an endurance competition involving holding weight on a pole. And ya, we bet Burton has a big grin on his face back at the Loser Lodge/Haunted Ghost Tribe Island as Christa is forced to take on one of the three poles while true beanpole Jon looks on. Andrew, Rhino, and Osten (even if he is whiny) have the clear advantage here, plus there's vidcap evidence that appears to show Rhino triumphantly throwing off his weighted pole and leaping from his platform. Possibly a victory leap.

RC WINNER: MORGAN

Bootee

Here's where it gets complicated... using Occum's Razor, Shawn, the last remaining outsider of the Burton/Michelle/Shawn alliance would seem to be the clear favorite to go.

But this "act of betrayal toward Rupert" seems to muddle the waters. The merge is expected to be coming, so a Drake member might decide it's time for "The Rupert Show" to go on permanent hiatus. One thing that seems clear from the relentless promos however is that Rupert will survive (otherwise why give away such a dramatic event?) So, the questions becomes what is the betrayal, when does it occur, who does it, how big a deal is it, and when does Rupert learn about it?

One school of thought believes Rupert takes vengence on his betrayer at the Tribal Council and boots their ass out of the game (or so he at least thinks) -- a scenario that while possible, seems to be the most extreme of the betrayal scenarios and requires us to determine the betrayer in order to be able to determine the episode's bootee. Of the possible Drake suspects, given her previously expressed Rupert paranoia, Trish seems to be the fan favorite to be Rupert's betrayer.

While the "Rupert Strikes Back" scenario is sound, it's also rather complicated and requires multiple assumptions and belief in the legitimacy of the CBS promos (which have in the past, frequently over-hyped what turned out to be major non-events.) As such, the Occum's Razor theory (which I went away from last week and look where it got me ) seems to be the more probable scenario, so I'll stick with that, while taking Trish and her "betrayal" theory as our alternate selection.

BOOTEE: SHAWN
ALTERNATE BOOTEE: TRISH

-SB