Email this topic to a friend Printer-friendly version of this topic Bookmark this topic (Registered users only)		Archived thread - Read only  Previous Topic | Next Topic
Conferences Survivor Spoilers Forum (Protected)
Original message

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-13-03, 05:21 PM (EST) "Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, Shawn or Michelle?" This week seems to leave open quite a few options of who may be prime for the boot. In looking at the possibilities, there are six folks who may go down the walk of shame this week based on different scenarios. I thought I'd start a thread to start narrowing down the field as we get closer to Thursday: Ryan O: Osten, Andrew, Darrah, and Tijuana apparently are considered to be jury members and no spoilers that they come back from the dead from the "ghost tribe". So, if (when)Morgan goes to Tribal council (bar a switch) Ryan is our man. It has been spoiled that Ryan goes due to some kind of switch so it can either be related to the "ghost tribe", a tribal switch, or another "Red Rover" kind of temporary switch. With the title "Everyone's Hero", it may imply that whenever Rupert is in a challenge, the tribe that has him COMPETING wins. He sat out the IC. Looks like from the Ryan O and Rupert hugging that Morgan wins Reward. It has been speculated that Drake might win because he is seen going back to camp with Drake, but maybe he opts out of sharing the reward with Morgan to show loyalty to his tribe. If Morgan loots, they would probably send Darrah being that she is the next to go and the others don't want to tick off the opposing tribe for potential votes. According to the CBS misdirection the looter makes friends at Drake. Also, the Morgan men are the ones who have no problem being naked and we've already seen Osten suggest the ladies to flash which we know they weren't really up for doing, so the shower misdirection could likely apply to Morgan. In the IC, we see Darrah choking,and no one else. If the "Red Rover" continues, Drake likes Darrah; Rupert finds out Darrah is on the chopping block; Darrah gagging is saving Drake from Tribal Council, Drake could possible request Darrah from Morgan barring her from getting booted. This would bring the irony out in the Ryan O confessional "Having Rupert on Morgan is the best thing that could have happened to their tribe". If Darrah is over at Drake during TC, we have Ryan O, Andrew, Tijuana and Osten voting. I think Andrew and Tijuana are the strongest alliance. I think Ryan O was in alliance with Darrah, and that is why he chose Darrah over Lillian. It put him in two 3-way alliances. Osten, Andrew, Tijuana and Ryan O, Darrah, Andrew. With Darrah over at Drake the common sense thing to do would be to avoid a tie, join with Osten and Tijuana and vote out Ryan O. This would fit all spoilers and fit the current story line. Jon: Jon has put himself out there as a untrustworthy alliance mate. However the title of Ep. 6 dealing with "snakes" seems to imply that Jon sticks around a bit more, and usually MB likes to soften his villain before the heave-ho. Jon has just been set up as the person to hate. Unlikely that he will be going anywhere this soon. The only way I could see him going is his plan to save Shawn backfires and gets him booted. Christa: Christa has a story in Star Magazine this week. This doesn't bode well for longevity. Also, Jon claims to be the puppetmaster so he is in no true alliance other than to Shawn so he is going to want to dwindle both alliances down to smaller numbers. We've already seen Christa as the prime target of the Christa/Trish/Sandra alliance so it would most likely remain that Christa would be the first target. In Burton's chat, Rupert was the loner, not aligned with any one. He still may be and may realize that he is the 4th member out on the C/T/S/R alliance so may as well want to dwindle that number. Also, we don't know how tiebreakers work this season. If Morgan wins IC, takes Rupert back again, Drake would have six people voting. Prior votes may count in the event of a tie, so if Christa, Sandra, Trish try to vote out Michelle, Shawn or Jon, and Shawn Michelle and Jon try to vote out Christa, she may still go IF prior votes count. Also, Snewswer seems to be quite certain she goes pre Ghost tribe and may come back so there are only a few more episodes that that may happen. Rupert Rupert has been shown to create a distrust in the others by being over at Morgan. However I believe that is totally misdirection. The Trish/Sandra/Christa alliance is not going to vote out Rupert and be in a tie/minority position. For this week, Rupert is in a strong position. Closer to merge or post merge, I see Rupert as a bigger target. But a Rupert boot is possible if he is seen as bonding too much with Morgan. Shawn Shawn seems to be at some point a target or Jon wouldn't have to justify him voting for Burton over Christa trying to pin Michelle as a target. Shawn's strength you would think be needed at least until another Morgan is gone to go into merge at an advantage, but we know smartness in boot choices isn't always present on this show. Shawn is not on the spoiler early boot list, but this could be because he is a return from the dead player?? Shawn however seems to be a likely choice to be around in Episode Six "Me and My Snake" so his departure again unlikely. Michelle Michelle is the only other person to vote against Christa. Now that she is alone, she may be deemed trustworthy and fill in an all-female alliance with Christa/Sandra and Trish. We know that Christa and Michelle don't get along, but we haven't seen the others not get along with her. Obviously there were many more dunkings in last week's IC than what was shown, but we were given several Michelle dunkings foreshadowing she has many times where she is a potential target and is able to get back on her feet. Also, editing-wise she has been hidden as well, and no spoilers of her going early. So, if she is a boot, she'd be another likely return from the dead person. So, from my perspective, the two most likely boots are Ryan O and Christa thus far with Rupert a distant 3rd.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, S... forehead 10-13-03 1  Ryno or Christa? Krautboy 10-13-03 2  RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, S... NTK 10-13-03 3    RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, S... Krautboy 10-13-03 4        RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, S... VerucaSalt 10-13-03 5            Can we conclude Ryan O? forehead 10-14-03 13                RE: Can we conclude Ryan O? Brownroach 10-14-03 15        RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, S... cowboyroo 10-13-03 6            RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, S... Rebel Crown 10-14-03 7            RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, S... dabo 10-15-03 25  Survivor News.net's Scorecard is no... Goooey_Alley 10-14-03 8    RE: Survivor News.net's Scorecard i... VerucaSalt 10-14-03 9        RE: the steal Loree 10-14-03 14            RE: the steal dabo 10-15-03 24  Congrats cowboyroo rose 10-14-03 10    RE: Congrats cowboyroo sbeck 10-14-03 18  RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, S... FarmBoy 10-14-03 11  RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, S... NTK 10-14-03 12    RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, S... badger 10-14-03 16        RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, S... Brownroach 10-14-03 17    RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, S... Nash 10-14-03 19  Christa and STAR magazine big idiot 10-15-03 20  Ryan or Christa mavsfan 10-15-03 21  Rupert Goes IslandFever 10-15-03 22  The curious case of Christa FesterFan1 10-15-03 23    RE: The curious case of Christa Brownroach 10-15-03 26        BR jkokoj 10-15-03 27            RE: BR Brownroach 10-15-03 30        RE: The curious case of Christa frisky 10-15-03 28            Hidden Alliances jkokoj 10-15-03 29                RE: Hidden Alliances Rube 10-15-03 32    RE: The curious case of Christa Devious Weasel 10-15-03 31        RE: The curious case of Christa Acawap 10-15-03 33            RE: The curious case of Christa badger 10-15-03 34                RE: The curious case of Christa Acawap 10-15-03 35                RE: The curious case of Christa Loree 10-15-03 36        Ep 4 revisited FesterFan1 10-15-03 37            Jon,Rupert,Christa,etc. RiverCityMack 10-16-03 38            RE: Ep 4 revisited Loree 10-16-03 39                RE: Ep 4 revisited Nash 10-16-03 40                    RE: Ep 4 revisited queencityfan 10-16-03 41                        RE: Ep 4 revisited VerucaSalt 10-16-03 42                            RE: Ep 4 revisited Solitaire 10-16-03 44                    RE: Ep 4 revisited pdragonfly 10-16-03 43                        RE: Ep 4 revisited RiverCityMack 10-16-03 45

Lobby | Topics | Previous Topic | Next Topic

Messages in this topic

forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-13-03, 05:38 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, Shawn or Michelle?" Great post, cowboyroo! I agree with your shortlist, and I agree that Ryan O and Christa are most vulnerable. The ep6 title does help narrow it down somewhat - likely eliminating Jon and Shawn. Since Snewser put up his checkmarks for ep4 and ep5 earlier - and still has not downgraded Michelle nor Shawn, I think we can rule out Michelle as well. Lastly, I can't see Trish, Sandra or Christa voting for Rupert, so Rupert would get at most 3 votes. (Yes, I'm making a judgement call here that the Trish comment is misdirection.) The hard part is the IC. I know there is this pic where Jon puts his head on Christa's shoulder. That could be at the explanation of the IC, during the IC, Morgan picking Jon to be the tie breaker participant, or post IC loss. The other relevant pic is Christa back at Drake, negative mood, same clothes/hair,etc as the IC. Could be pre or post IC. this is hard.... forehead   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-13-03, 06:22 PM (EST) 2. "Ryno or Christa?" Excellent summary Cowboy. I've come to the same conclusions you and Forehead have...it's Ryno or Christa depending on who wins Immunity... The OFG Theory confirms it as Rupert is not shown in the first promo for EP5, but both Ryno and Christa are... Krautboy   Top

NTK 109 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-13-03, 06:38 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, Shawn or Michelle?" Cowboyroo's comment on six Drakes voting is interesting. I could see Michelle leaving if Trish, Sandra, Christa and Rupert were voting. I couldn't figure out how a voting block of 4 could get themselves into a tie at TC. But, if Rupert was captured again by Morgan that could bring the previous votes for Christa into play. The same would apply if they decided to go after Jon or Shawn. Although the E6 title, seems to be suggest they survive this TC.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-13-03, 07:36 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, Shawn or Michelle?" The Drakes could be faced with a similar dilemma if Michelle is "captured" by the Morgan Tribe this week... JP may explain that the same person cannot be taken twice in a row, and Michelle may the the pillager that bonded with th Morgans, so the Morgan's select Michelle... In this case, the tribe would have to chose between voting out another male, or vote out a female. If they decide they need to keep the men, Christa is the likely choice. Krautboy   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 10-13-03, 08:21 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, Shawn or Michelle?" A big if......... IF the steal is even done and that could change everything entirely. If Drake wins and no steal, I'd say Darrah for the boot (remember again we don't know about who is who in this ghost tribe and who comes back for sure, last I read it was 2-3 people) If Drake wins and a steal, it is completely set up for the Rhino spoiler and I agree 100% If Morgan wins IC and no steal, that's a bit of a pickle. As far as being wise and keeping strength, well R/C/S/T had no problem getting rid of Burton; why not Shawn next? Rupert is still there to help with challenges. Post TC it is 6-5 and merger is around the corner *maybe* If not, why not squirrley Jon; obviously cannot be trusted or Michelle who is not in the loop in any alliance that we can see. I have a hard time resolving the R/C/S/T would break up NOW. If Morgan wins IC and a steal - you would THINK they would realize the implications and take someone who they would rather give a free TC pass that WON'T be a challenge threat to them. They wouldn't take S or C IMO (they really weren't crazy about them) They SHOULDN'T take Shawn b/c he would be an II threat and they probably CAN'T take Rupert. Leaving M or J or T left and they'd probably take M or T over J. This is my ONLY rationale then for a Rupert boot as T would be gone with only R/C/S and the left overs of J/M/S. J/M/S would probably want to take R out and R/C/S maybe S. Tie vote? (This is where I start wondering if the lie or regret or whatever combination or relation they have may come in) Now, if M goes over there we still have R/C/S/T vs. J/S. Unless the foursome breaks up somehow I can't fathom Rupert going this episode. We figure that Jon still stays b/c of Jeff's comments and we don't know anything really about S or M status wise and then considering I was a huge proponent on Christa going, her status has gone down but I can't quite resolve her this episode either PROVIDED the R/C/S/T stays intact and I really don't have any reason (other than the stuff making it appear so)to see it break up yet.   Top

forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-14-03, 02:26 PM (EST) 13. "Can we conclude Ryan O?" We seem to have agreement in this thresd that it's between Ryan O and Christa. >I was a huge proponent on Christa going, her status has gone down but I can't quite resolve her this episode either PROVIDED the R/C/S/T stays intact and I really don't have any reason (other than the stuff making it appear so)to see it break up yet. Yes, this has been bugging me too. Having seen Drake's first TC, I can't see R/C/S/T break up either. Can we therefore conclude that if Christa doesn't go, Ryan O must be the boot? forehead   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-14-03, 03:03 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Can we conclude Ryan O?" Spoilerish info notwithstanding, I have a hard time with Christa going this week too. Drake waited a long time for their first TC. While alliances had obviously been coming together, Jon's (for one) status was tenuous. I contend that alliances don't really take hold until the first TC vote, when you have palpable evidence of who is on the same page and who is not. In that event, the Trish/Christa/Sandra alliance has seized control. Jon jumped to their side, even convincing Shawn to come over. The question is where Rupert would have come down, but it seems likely he'll be glad that T/C/S got rid of traitor Burton. So why would Trish/Christa/Sandra/(Rupert) not still hold the reins if they go to TC in another 3 days? Michelle is outside the loop, and, while not a slouch at challenges, she is disposable. Jon may be viewed as risky to keep now, especially if he is trying to save Shawn for some reason. Shawn's vote wasn't needed to oust Burton and is totally unnecessary now (but his strength factor should make him least disposable of these three for the moment). Even if squirrelly Jon decides to realign with Shawn and Michelle and target Christa, he needs a fourth person. I can't see who he would be able to pull over from the other group.   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-13-03, 09:05 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, Shawn or Michelle?" LAST EDITED ON 10-13-03 AT 09:10 PM (EST) You may be onto something Krautboy. Michelle is nowhere to be found in the Drake scene talking about Shawn voting for Burton. Maybe she was taken by Morgan after an IC win. There's also a shot on True Dork Times that is blurry in a green background of what looks like either Darrah or Michelle walking possibly to camp with tribe? Could this be a clue to who is taken. I am pretty sure the "take a member from other tribe" is going to keep going til the merge. It is a fascinating situation. With the clues, I'd bet 90% that either Darrah or Michelle are the pillagers. I'm leaning more toward Darrah only because of the "Everyone's Hero" title. It would fit Morgan winning RC and Drake winning IC since Rupert would be on both teams and the only player to be victorious in both challenges this episode and am pretty sure if Darrah doesn't go to Drake, she'd be toast so she could be the pillager and the captive. Right now I'm 70% Ryan O, 30% Christa. The only thing bugging me is the Star article about Christa. I am pretty sure that every time there has been a tabloid article, that person has always been the next booted. Edited to add that normally MB would show us the gagging person from the winning team, except in this case, the majority of the audience would be pretty confident in a Darrah boot. The surprise would be that she is saved by the trade. Also, at this point in the game, I think Jon would be a more likely bootee than Christa if Michelle was taken to Morgan; but I do agree that with the pattern of the female pillagers, Michelle would be next for Drake.   Top

Rebel Crown 1413 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-14-03, 02:13 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, Shawn or Michelle?" LAST EDITED ON 10-14-03 AT 02:18 AM (EST) <<I am pretty sure that every time there has been a tabloid article, that person has always been the next booted.>> I've already seen articles in "Star" on Osten, Christa, Shawn and Trish, all still on the show. Maybe setting up the readers for jury members?   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-15-03, 04:14 PM (EST) 25. "RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, Shawn or Michelle?" There is no guarantee that being featured in an article in a weekly signals immiminant bootitude. And often when it does signal a boot it will happen not that week but the following week. One thing to look for in these articles, however, is how much participation the publication got from EPM&crew, CBS, the potential bootie or persons close to potential bootie. If it is something the rag just went out and dug up with no involvement by any of the listed, it probably isn't important. When there clearly was some involvement, however, pay attention to the signal. And there was some clear involvement in the piece on Christa's wedding. "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

Goooey_Alley 425 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 10-14-03, 03:53 AM (EST) 8. "Survivor News.net's Scorecard is not yet updated as of this "time"" As stated in the site, the status is Pre-E4 and it was last updated October 9, 2003. We can expect that anytime, the webmaster might change some info's. But in the case of TDT's, it was updated, and it had "Trouble?" remark under Christa, Ryan O., Rupert, Jon and Michelle; "Safe?" remark for Shawn; and "Safe" for the rest of the remaining contestants. Survivor Spoiler's Scorecard Status: Pre-E4 Last updated October 9, 2003 Some of this information is far from confirmed, but we're including any sketchy clues we can get our hands on to form the best picture we can about the course of play. This page will be updated in the future, based on our best guess. If you have any information about the contestants, please email. Anonymity guaranteed.   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 10-14-03, 07:30 AM (EST) 9. "RE: Survivor News.net's Scorecard is not yet updated as of this "time"" I thought I did see Michelle there post TC We can't be sure of anything regarding the steal. For all we know this was punishment to Drake to throw the IC; Jeff commented quite a bit about R/B sitting out; of course Jeff knew. If there is no steal, the door opens up more possibilities so I don't think we should limit ourselves to just who would go if there is a steal. Jeff made it clear that the RC had an unexpected bonus with the pirating and made it clear this would continue to happen. He did not say those words about the steal. The steal is great, don't get me wrong and completely assists in a goal to shake up things if no swap but it doesn't have to be consecutive nor does it have to happen again.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-14-03, 02:29 PM (EST) 14. "RE: the steal" Stealing a player is something that really has to start worrying the players. If you are in an alliance with someone and they are stolen, that is one less vote to help you. The person stolen can not stay and vote at TC to help save their friend and it could really screw up any plotting among an alliance. Very sneaky of MB.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-15-03, 04:03 PM (EST) 24. "RE: the steal" Agree, EPM has finally found an immediate consequence that should discourage the tribes from throwing future immunity challenges. If you cannot be certain your intended target will be around for the TC, why risk it? Morgan will almost certainly take Rupert again, if they are allowed to. The alternate would seem to be Michelle, who is next in line to raid Morgan if Drake wins RC (taking into account that promohype has the raider befriending the other tribe). If Morgan wins RC, though, the raider is almost guaranteed of a friendly reception, since Drake is so far ahead of the game in their camp situation that there is almost nothing a Morgan could take from them that would hurt them (except the fishing spear) and the Morgan would likely want back something the Morgan really need (the tarp). But now I'm rambling and digressing... "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

rose 313 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 10-14-03, 07:59 AM (EST) 10. "Congrats cowboyroo" First of all cowboyroo, I just wanted to congratulate you on being in first place for the pick a winner game.. Great shortlist, I think it's between Ryan O. and Christa.. We'll have to see.   Top

sbeck 418 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 10-14-03, 08:55 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Congrats cowboyroo" I hope it's Christa. Something about her just bugs me. . .   Top

FarmBoy 2618 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 10-14-03, 08:13 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, Shawn or Michelle?" Howdy cowboy- I agree with your thoughts. I think Darrah squeaks by due to a Morgan win at IC or due to "red rover". (aside- I like the term "red rover". If this person swap continues, I think we should all use this term to post about it.) Bovinated- An Original Draco Masterpiece   Top

NTK 109 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-14-03, 10:49 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, Shawn or Michelle?" If Morgan wins TC- If they can capture a player- I like the idea that they would not be able to choose Rupert again. Can't see them choosing Jon, Christa, or Sandra. If Morgan chooses Shawn or Michelle, is there any way Jon would stay other than the E6 title? Would they feel he would add strength in future challenges? Are his alliances or deals that strong? It was odd to see him baiting Shawn in the previews. Was he burning bridges or pulling strings? If Morgan chooses Trish, I would lean towards Christa because of being a previous target with previous votes. Also, the rumors of returns and ghost tribes sometimes include Christa. In additon, there is the tabloid story of her wedding this week. I'm can't remember exactly when the Ghandia story hit the tabloids. But, she was out either that week or the next. One nagging doubt is the "Everyone's Hero" title. At first it seemed like it would mean that he helped Morgan win RC and Drake win IC. It would be so ironic if Rupert returns to Drake only to be voted off. Rupert is on most boot sheets as not lasting long. It would be a fitting end to his story.   Top

badger 1273 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-14-03, 06:13 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, Shawn or Michelle?" > >One nagging doubt is the "Everyone's >Hero" title. At first >it seemed like it would >mean that he helped Morgan >win RC and Drake win >IC. It would be >so ironic if Rupert returns >to Drake only to be >voted off. Rupert is >on most boot sheets as >not lasting long. It >would be a fitting end >to his story. I like this idea of the episode 5 title being ironic. The tug-of-war, the fishing, the sinking of the other tribe’s boat—-these clearly made Rupert Drake’s hero. And Morgan’s quick decision to “steal” Rupert suggests they believed he would bring these heroics over to their tribe. But I’m wondering if, instead, we find Morgan LOSING the RC (with Rupert on their side) and Drake LOSING the IC (with Rupert on their side). His winning days are over, and his status as “hero” can be questioned. That being said, I don’t see Rupert as the boot this week. I’m buying the Krautboy’s very astute analysis of the Snewser spoilers. I think we’re looking at Christa’s ousting. This would certainly coincide with the spoilers up for episode 6 on TDT that indicate next week will see the emergence of that mysterious 3rd tribe. I do, however, think the “Me and My Snake” title for episode 6 (I know, I know, this is probably OT for this thread) suggests a move by the forces of evil (that would be Jon and Shawn) to oust our “hero,” the “good guy” Rupert. -badger   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-14-03, 06:28 PM (EST) 17. "RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, Shawn or Michelle?" His (Rupert's) winning days are over, and his status as “hero” can be questioned. I don't see this happening. Look at the nature of IC. A single person is responsible for winning or losing the Gross Food challenge. If Drake loses, Rupert won't be the reason. And if Morgan loses RC with Rupert on their side, Rupert can always tell Drake that he didn't give it his all because he didn't want Morgan to win. Rupert's worth is not going to suddenly plummet if he's on the losing tribe for both challenges this week, imo.   Top

Nash 437 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 10-14-03, 11:37 PM (EST) 19. "RE: Ryan O, Jon, Christa, Rupert, Shawn or Michelle?" I actually saw someone suggest that Rupert has an interest in snakes. Could the title (and yes I think CBS could actually do this!) refer to Rupert finding a snake and taking it as a pet and have nothing to do with Jon whatsoever   Top

big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-15-03, 00:17 AM (EST) 20. "Christa and STAR magazine" "Christa: Christa has a story in Star Magazine this week. This doesn't bode well for longevity." Is the "Tabloid Spoiler" approach legit? I was wondering if someone could do an actual analysis on Bootees and Tabloids (anyone a Tabloid packrat?) Scenarios: 1) 8 stories on Survivors, all stories appeared within 2 episodes of their boot. Obvious super spoiler potential. 2) 8 stories on survivors, 4 appeared within 2 episodes of their boot. I'm not convinced if this would be statistically significant. Significance decreases as the game goes further because odds of their boot in an episode keeps rising. I think we may be mistaking editorial strategy for spoiler strategy. Example: Tabloid editor receives 4 stories about 4 different survivors. 2 are already booted, so editor sees them as old news and never even runs their story. Editor confers with staffer that loves survivor (and may be a spoiler follower), "chuck" tells editor to hold story on Osten cause he may go further then Christa. So Lillian story is tossed, Burton story is tossed, Osten story is held and Christa story is run. These tabloids are still in business because of strategies like these. And we perceive Christa story as prediction of near boot...talk about getting hit with one's own boomerang... Just a thought, BI   Top

mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-15-03, 00:26 AM (EST) 21. "Ryan or Christa" The best reason for Ryan to go this week in my opinion is that if he gets voted out due to a switch, we are running out of time. If it's a normal merge, Ryan has to go to loser lodge this week or next I think. Otherwise once they merge, immunity becomes individual, and everyone lives together (no more switches to screw Ryan up). Still, I'm leaning towards Christa this week and Ryan next. We have the story of retuning players that includes: Lil Burton Christa If this is true then: 1) In order for Christa to return she has to leave first. 2) Since we don't know yet how or why players return, it makes as much sense to me as any thing I've heard so far that at the time players are brought back it's as simple as the last 3 voted out return - That would mean It's Christa's time to go. 3) If players do return, I've got to think it's at or before the merge (assuming a standard merge). If it's at or before a standard merge there's only 2 more TC's to send Christa to loser lodge before her return. So she gets the ax this week or next and this weeks as good a time as next week.   Top

IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 10-15-03, 00:26 AM (EST) 22. "Rupert Goes" Rupert is in deep doo-doo. Everybody's Hero is in fact irony. Rupert first loses Morgan's RC and then loses Drake's IC. Meanwhile he has a big target on his back since Morgan feels he is so valuable. And he was a traitor and helped save Morgan from starving. Rupert, the tribe has spoken.   Top

FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-15-03, 04:01 PM (EST) 23. "The curious case of Christa" I'm with Krautboy in that I think it's more than coincidental that Snewser downgraded both Burton and Christa and simultaneously placed checks in his E4 and E5 boxes. What I don't get is under what conditions she would go. The power dynamic in Drake is C/Sa/T/(R), J/Sh, M. We know that Christa likes Rupert. We know that Sandra has defended Rupert against Shawn and Burton. We know that Trish felt alienated by Shawn/Burton/Michelle. We know that Jon is a tribal pain in the ass and has no game in the challenges. We know that Rupert respects the women of the tribe enough to have told them about Burton's plan to boot them first. In this episode, it will come out that Shawn voted for Burt. This potentially alienates Michelle even more. She's the only remaining Drake who voted for Christa. Michelle thought she had an alliance with Shawn that she didn't have. Does she come, tail between her legs, to C/Sa/T? Jon may want to whittle away at C/Sa/T, but there are 2 voting scenarios, and neither look promising for him. 1. Drake goes to TC with all 7 remaining members: No way Rupert votes with Jon/Shawn to oust Christa. I can't see that happening. So Jon/Shawn would have to get Sa/T to turn on Christa (the big lie?). Knowing how much Sandra hates Jon, I can't see how this could happen. 2. Drake goes to TC with 6 members while 1 is at Morgan: Jon would have to have a majority in order to go after Christa. This would have to entail himself, Shawn, Michelle, and one of Sandra, Trish, or Rupert. I don't believe he'd risk a tie not knowing what the tiebreaker would be. (Not to mention that there hasn't been anything out of CBS regarding TC this week, which makes me think there isn't any big shake-up there.) So we're back to scenario 1 where Jon would somehow have to get Christa's alliance to turn on her--in favor of Jon, whom they can't stand. The E6 title does lend itself to an interpretation that Jon is successful in this endeavor, becoming "the snake". Does anyone have a theory (or a link to a theory, since I haven't seen one) on how, in game terms, Christa gets the boot? Fester   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-15-03, 04:27 PM (EST) 26. "RE: The curious case of Christa" Does anyone have a theory (or a link to a theory, since I haven't seen one) on how, in game terms, Christa gets the boot? Not really, that I've seen. TDT suggests that perhaps Jon wasn't the only person that was hedging between Christa and Burton last week. But I don't know who else might have been. Trish? I have the same problem with the Christa boot theory. Alliances tend to fall into place after the first time a tribe goes to TC, imo. Not only did Jon come down on Christa's side, Shawn did as well. How does this get completely overturned three days later? Could it be that Christa really is as annoying as Burton said, and faced with the prospect of voting out Christa or Michelle, eventually more people choose Christa?   Top

jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 10-15-03, 04:32 PM (EST) 27. "BR" As for Christa getting the boot, I feel the same way. How do things turn around so quickly this week? Obviously she was with Trish, Jon, Sandra to boot Burton so why the change this week. I would assume that if Rupert returns to the Drake camp that Christa would have yet another ali. have you checked your e-mail?   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-15-03, 04:51 PM (EST) 30. "RE: BR" jkokoj -- I responded in the other thread (or is it in this thread?) that I never got your email. We may have been having connection problems this morning. I've been receiving mail this afternoon so if you want to resend it...   Top

frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-15-03, 04:35 PM (EST) 28. "RE: The curious case of Christa" >Could it be that Christa really is as annoying as Burton said I don't think so, BR. We never saw anyone BUT Burton complaining about Christa. It was Burton who was perturbed over Christa questioning Shawn about his education. The viewer might *conclude* that Shawn hates her based on Burton's bitchy summation of the conversation, but there is no proof of his feelings toward Christa, good or bad. In fact, I find it very interesting how Shawn lets everything roll off his shoulders. He reacted calmly to Ruperts spear tantrum and Jon's "I'm the only one who does any work around here" bellyaching. I can't see him going off the deep end about Christa's line of questioning.   Top

jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 10-15-03, 04:47 PM (EST) 29. "Hidden Alliances" I posted a long while ago about people naturally gravitating towards eachother because of their background or commonalities. The follow is what I have posted previously and what I gleaned from the CBS website: "Based on backgrounds and interests I have determined that the following will be an early alliance. Originally from Pittstown, New Jersey, Michelle Tesauro is currently single and residing in Washington, D.C. She recently graduated from Virginia Polytechnic Institute where she received a Bachelor of Science degree in business and marketing. She also participated in a student ambassador program for Pamplin College of Business where she gave speeches to prospective students about the benefits of the attending the school. While in college, she worked as an airport media marketing intern, a lifeguard and, during summers, with the Universal Cheerleaders Association. Her favorite hobbies are gymnastics, stunting and reading. She describes herself as imaginative, clumsy and athletic. She is most proud of participating in the annual Polar Bear Plunge fundraiser where she runs into the freezing Atlantic Ocean every February to raise money for the Special Olympics. Her favorite sport is soccer. She has a pet dog named Reggie and a fish named Rosco. Her parents are her heroes as she feels they teach her how to be a better person. She believes she's ready for SURVIVOR: PEARL ISLANDS because her sense of humor helps her to get through difficult situations. Her birth date is January 16, 1981. Trish Dunn was born and raised in Lanham, Maryland, and currently lives in Annapolis, Maryland with her husband and nine year-old twins, Reilly and Molly (they'll be 10 on Sept. 21). She is currently employed as a sales executive and has always worked in sales, whether it is media, advertising or investments. She earned a Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Maryland (where she was also a cheerleader and a gymnast) and completed some graduate business administration coursework at the University of Baltimore. Her favorite hobbies include marathon running, bungee jumping, rock climbing, hiking and anything that challenges her (she recently learned how to snowboard). She describes herself as focused, competitive and loyal. She is most proud of her solid marriage and being happy. She is a member of the Washington D.C. Ad Club, Mothers of Multiples and the Annapolis Striders. Her favorite sport is long-distant running (she's completed 24 marathons, including ten Boston Marathons). Her hero is her mom who she says taught her to like herself, be kind and caring, but also competitive and confident. Trish believes she's ready for SURVIVOR: PEARL ISLANDS because her athletic skills make her a viable and useful tribe member. She describes herself as extremely competitive, an excellent swimmer, a born leader and a gifted problem solver. Her birth date is October 29, 1960. Originally from New York City, Shawn Cohen is currently single and living in Hollywood, with Russty, his rottweiler. Cohen and his twin brother have recently established a new business where individuals can post on-line portfolios and artist reels. Cohen was previously employed as an account executive in the advertising industry. He notes that his friends and family have dubbed him "The Ultimate Salesman." Cohen received a Bachelor of Arts degree in communications from the University of Arizona. His hobbies include going to movies, camping, surfing, snowboarding and film editing. His father is his hero because he admires all of the accomplishments he has had in his life and all the obstacles he endured to become the success that he is. He describes himself as charismatic, spontaneous and caring. Cohen feels that he's a good candidate for SURVIVOR: PEARL ISLANDS because he's competitive, never quits, is a problem solver and someone who works extremely well under pressure. His birth date is September 20, 1974.   Top

Rube 12 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 10-15-03, 05:23 PM (EST) 32. "RE: Hidden Alliances" and don't forget that Jon and Michelle both went to Virginia Tech   Top

Devious Weasel 18756 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-15-03, 05:15 PM (EST) 31. "RE: The curious case of Christa" How about this: Drake wins RC. Michelle comes over to Morgan, and (as per CBS misdirection) does her best to make friends. She goes so far as to tell them about how Jon and Shawn betrayed her and Burton. Morgan then wins IC. Probst tells them that, while they get to capture a player again, it can't be the same player they took before, leaving Rupert at Drake. Having already bonded somewhat with Michelle, and knowing that Michelle is now the obvious Drake boot, they grab her. Drake then goes to TC. With Burton gone, they refuse to boot off one of the males. Thus, Shawn, Rupert, and (even) Jon are safe. As a result, the three females still at camp become targets. Jon convinces Rupert and Shawn to vote with him against Christa based solely on the tiebreaker in previous editions being prior votes. He then goes to work on either Sandra or Trish, depending on who he thinks is the best person to woo. The lie might come into play here, and the result is Christa being booted. This would leave room for the regret to appear later when Christa comes back to the game.   Top

Acawap 184 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-15-03, 05:32 PM (EST) 33. "RE: The curious case of Christa" How about this: Morgan wins immunity (still not sure how this could ever happen, but guess it does...). They choose Shawn to come over, leaving Rupert, Michelle, Jon, Christa, Sandra and Trish at TC. Since they've just lost 2 ICs in a row, they realize they have to rid themselves of the weakest link. Who might that be? Rupert -- obviously no. Shawn -- no... but maybe he's not available anyway. Michelle -- proves herself in this IC according to previews, as well as in previous competitions, so no... Sandra -- not likely. even if she is weak, she's loud, so doesn't appear weak. Trish -- competes hard, but we never see anything from her. Don't make waves, don't get voted out. Christa -- maybe not the weakest, but certainly on the weaker side. Jon -- YES! weakest of the bunch. However, he's the puppet master, so stay with me... I think this is where the big lie comes in. Original reports had Jon responsible for it. This kinda went away with retractions, but I believe there's truth in the statement. So Jon uses Shawn, who's gone (this later leads to the Me and my Snake theme) to save his sorry, wanna-be-Ric-Flair-but-is-too-scrawny-and-annoying, white a$$. He starts a rumor that Shawn told him Christa said she was tanking the IC so she could vote off somebody else -- maybe Sandra. Shawn's not there to rebuke, and without time to analyze the situation completely and with a shred of doubt in their minds, they vote off Christa. That's my theory of how Christa bites the dust. Shoot it down now please.....   Top

badger 1273 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-15-03, 06:09 PM (EST) 34. "RE: The curious case of Christa" I'm not sure Morgan would take Shawn. Although this may be giving them far too much credit, by now youd THINK they'd have figured out that stealing a player also gives that person immunity at TC, and therefore they might select someone "weak" rather than someone "strong." (I don't just mean physical strength here; it could be someone perceived to be on the chopping block -- what better way to mess with the opposing tribe's boot-plans). And after all, if Morgan lose the RC, Rupert's strength did little to help them; they merely gave a good player a "by". So I agree with DeviousWeasel that Michelle is a likely candidate to be "stolen." Trish might be as well. She probably seemed innocuous enough to the Morganites when pillaging last episode. Regardless of which woman goes, I think that we'll see Jon manipulate the others into ousting Christa. Could it be "the big lie"? I don't know. But the promo-pics of him leaning on her shoulder might just be more misdirection, suggesting a closeness between the two when in fact there is none. Oh, and a scary afterthought. . . what if jon claims to have gotten "intimate" with Christa! A lie. BIG regret. A snake? OK, I'll post this now. I'm just getting silly. . . -badger   Top

Acawap 184 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-15-03, 06:30 PM (EST) 35. "RE: The curious case of Christa" good point. my theory still holds if Michelle or Trish gets taken, only Jon tells the lie differently. I think Jon saying he's ever been intimate with ANY woman would be a big lie... and I'm still laughing at the notion that Morgan could've figured something out!!! LOLOL   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-15-03, 06:30 PM (EST) 36. "RE: The curious case of Christa" It was Christa and Jon that took off when they were suppose to stay at camp and keep the fire going. Maybe several members of the tribe remember this and Christa does something else that annoys them. Jon talks his way out of being booted so they have to boot someone and Christa is the other player they are not pleased with. So much is hidden from us that Christa might be very lazy around camp and we just don't hear the others griping about it.   Top

FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-15-03, 10:53 PM (EST) 37. "Ep 4 revisited" LAST EDITED ON 10-15-03 AT 10:56 PM (EST) I went back and reviewed Ep 4 to get a better sense of the dynamics at work within Drake. Rupert definitely feels he is part of the Sandra/Trish/Christa alliance. In fact he used that very word in a confessional regarding his moonlight chat with Burt. Christa talks about the alliance consisting of herself, Sandra and Trish, but this is after Rupert had gone off to Morgan, and the topic was the upcoming vote at Tribal Council. Sandra says negative things about Shawn and Burt, and has already had a blow-up w/ Jon. Trish only says negative things about the trio of Shawn/Burt/Michelle. This is my feeling on the alliances at Drake after watching Ep 4 a second time: C/T/Sa/R - This group is tight. It would take something like a big lie to break it up. I've heard people postulate that maybe they see Christa as a challenge liability, but I don't believe for a second that they view Jon as more valuable in that regard. It's been established that they all see him as the weakest physical link. Given their choice, they would go for him next I believe. Sh/J - This was the hidden alliance. It appeared that the alliance was M/Sh/B, who were trying to pull Jon to their side. However, in hindsight it was really just M/B with Shawn choosing to vote with Jon. Clearly Jon will want to break up the Big 4, and truth be told, Christa is the weak link there. But I still think it would take some serious manipulation to get them to turn. Big lie indeed. This is a direct quote from Christa which may be a set up for the BL: "I am somewhat afraid that Jon could be playing me. It's just that he's talking to Shawn and Burton and Michelle with such truth in his eyes, and I see it and observe it everyday. And he does the same thing to me, and it just makes me feel uneasy. I just wish he would talk to them a little less convincingly." Now this was a prelude to Ep 4 TC where Christa was feeling the heat, but it does make for a pretty good set up should Jon make his move to break up the alliance of 4. Fester   Top

RiverCityMack 7 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 10-16-03, 02:09 AM (EST) 38. "Jon,Rupert,Christa,etc." TDT has Rupert listed as safe this week,by their wording on Survivometer RyanO is fairly safe also.They have Jon,Christa and Michelle as in trouble,but with the thumbs down,thumbs up beside Jon. They also have the ghost tribe listed with Lil and Burton questionable. Makes you wanna go Hmmmmmm.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-16-03, 08:05 AM (EST) 39. "RE: Ep 4 revisited" If say Trish was stolen by the Morgan tribe, that would be one less vote to save Christa. Jon just might be able to sway enough people against Christa with a lie. Especially if Jon feels vulnerable.   Top

Nash 437 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 10-16-03, 08:10 AM (EST) 40. "RE: Ep 4 revisited" Snewser's changed his list suggests Christa or Jon   Top

queencityfan 123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-16-03, 08:59 AM (EST) 41. "RE: Ep 4 revisited" And if you click on the baby orangatan it takes you to the article on Lillians possible resurrection. Interesting.   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 10-16-03, 09:43 AM (EST) 42. "RE: Ep 4 revisited" cowboyroo I didn't get a chance to say thank you for starting this thread so a belated thank you My position as stated up at the top is still where I am. I saw no reason in rewatching the show that Christa would be next. If indeed she is the next victim (and I'm sorry all I have my spec based on a lot of what you do but caps of looking sad and such don't do it for me) then SOMETHING must happen which we don't know about. I've read some of the posts after and I do question if this lie comes into play. Burton had mentioned both Trish and Christa to Rupert as a boot initially in their nighttime conversation so Trish was not above boot status. Obviously we know J/S have a side deal going that no one else knows about until now. I honestly have problems with R/C/S departing from their alliance as they seem very close and we already know that S/C can't stand Shawn and would in fact probably want him gone as well. Shawn even commented about Sandra bleeping him so he probably thought he was the target which is probably why he had no issue about voting about Burton. Trish is aligned with these three and I don't believe she has any sense of bonding with Shawn as she stated M/B/S alienated everyone but she has never commented on Jon. This is the part where I can only justify Christa going outside of what the TDT/SNN et al teasers are saying. Jon would therefore have to be key in allowing Trish to believe her alliance is going to cut her throat (need the pirate analogies here) I don't think that Christa is J/S target, it is Rupert but they can't get to Rupert directly so they must chip away at his people first. Could the lie come into play here. Frankly if it doesn't I'd be very surprised b/c Trish jumping ship to play with S/J/M LOGICALLY is ridiculous. Christa stated (to whoever posted it WONDERFUL, sorry I can't remember) Jon is too convincing to people. While I certainly don't feel he is the puppet master he proposes himself to believe (and contestants like that usually do themselves in) perhaps in the aftermath of such a wacked TC with throwing challenges, Shawn's vote, Rupert not there for a lot of aftertalk, etc. Jon has a perfect forum to make the suspicious even more suspicious. Paranoid and suspicion is a dangerous thing. The steal could obviously factor in though I tend right now to not believe there is one.   Top

Solitaire 103 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-16-03, 01:47 PM (EST) 44. "RE: Ep 4 revisited" >My position as stated up at >the top is still where >I am. I saw no >reason in rewatching the show >that Christa would be next. That's true. But I can think of a few other cases where there prior to the show, there was no reason that the bootee would be booted. Christy in S6, Kelly Goldsmith in S3 are two that immediately come to mind (and if we want to look a little closer to home, there didn't seem much reason for a Burton boot after watching Ep 3). There are other instances where prior to the episode it appeared that the bootee "could" be booted, but that it would involve a rather unlikely chain of events (such as alliance switching or Survivors actually being smart). John in S4 was a good example of one of these events. I guess I'm saying that every once in a while, a boot comes out of nowhere.   Top

pdragonfly 318 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 10-16-03, 09:50 AM (EST) 43. "RE: Ep 4 revisited" Can you put a link to "snewsters" changed list. I'm new here and haven't the foggiest idea who these people are that everyone is refering to. Thanks.   Top

RiverCityMack 7 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 10-16-03, 07:54 PM (EST) 45. "RE: Ep 4 revisited" pdrag,the link that you're looking for is at Survivornews.net.Also,TDT means True Dork Times.Just a little something to keep you up with these pros.   Top

Remove

Lobby | Topics | Previous Topic | Next Topic

Select another forum Lobby The Amazing Race Message Board Forums (Conference)   |--The Amazing Race Fanatics Forum (Protected)   |--The Amazing Race Basher Forum (Protected)   |--The Amazing Race Spoiler/Speculation Forum (Protected) American Idol Message Board Forums (Conference)   |--American Idol General Discussion Forum (Protected)   |--American Idol Individual Contestant and Judge Discussion Forum (Protected) Big Brother Message Board Forums (Conference)   |--Big Brother Fanatic Forum (Protected)   |--Big Brother Bashers Forum (Protected)   |--Big Brother Live Feed Updates And Spoilers (Protected) Survivor Message Board Forums (Conference)   |--Survivor Fanatic Forum (Protected)   |--Survivor Basher Forum (Protected)   |--Survivor Spoilers Forum (Protected)   |--Survivor Games Forum (Protected) Other Reality TV Shows (Conference)   |--The Bachelor / The Bachelorette Forum (Protected)   |--Dancing with the Stars Forum (Protected)   |--Other Reality TV Shows Forum (Protected) Off Topic (Conference)   |--The Help Forum (Protected)   |--Off-Topic Forum (Protected)