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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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I'm gonna try and make this quick, because unfortunately I have afternoon appointment for another Red Sox torture session. Besides, I already published this info a couple of hours ago here in the vote thread, so it shouldn't be news to anyone following that thread.

Immunity Challenge

We've got little to go on here. IMHO, there is little more than the law of averages to believe the Morgan wins the Immunity Challenge. And if CBS is claiming it's "extremely physical" my money is on Drake's possible combo of Rupert, Shawn, and Burton over Morgan's Andrew, "lazy Ryan" (I'd rather be called skinny than lazy,) and Osten The Whiner. Combined with the pathetic performance that Morgan has shown regardless of the challenge type to date, there seems to be no reason to feel Morgan is more likely than Drake to win this challenge (the law of averages only comes into play if both possiblities are equal -- and one thing Morgan has shown is that to date is that they definitely are not equal to Drake.)

WINNER: Drake

Reward Challenge

Ah, who really cares? The bigger question is if Drake wins, what does Morgan have left of value for them to pillage? That said, we see the Drake apparently goes treasure map hunting... and since they apparently choose to suddenly go hunting now rather than in last episode when they already possessed 1/3rd of the map, perhaps it's because they win a second third of the map. Combine that possibilility with (see Immunity Challenge, above) Morgan's general challenge ineptitude, and that makes another Drake victory the favorite.

WINNER: Drake

Bootee

Right now it's pretty clear that Lil is the Morgan outsider. Yes, Osten wants out, but too damn bad, like Shawna last season, as long as Andrew is captaining that crew, Osten ain't going anywhere (plus there are multiple spoilers that he goes very far.) So, that bring us to Andrew... could a mutiny be in order against a leader who's led them to nothing but losses so far? Sure, it's possible, but looking over the meek bunch left, who among the crew has shown the possiblity of having the guts to lead such a revolt? And even if some members think it's a good idea to change leadership, is it still a a smart move to boot the strong Andrew over the weaker Lillian when this tribe clearly is going to need all the strength it can get if it has any hope to compete in the remaining tribal challenges? Factor in the rumors that Lillian is planning a "private viewing" of tonight's episode, and it just ties this thing up with a bow.

LILLIAN is the clear pick for bootee should Morgan return to Tribal Council yet again... on the off-chance they don't, JON is the alternate selection from Drake (yes JON, not RUPERT.... not yet.)

-SB

PS Please, I beg of you... GO SOX