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"SuvrivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!"
SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-01-03, 01:58 AM (EST)
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"SuvrivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!" |
Sooner or later, I might find something interesting to say in this spot, but it's not this week. The Rules 1. Please put the name of your choice for this week's bootee IN THE SUBJECT HEADING! This is really easy. Just erase the bit where it says "Re: SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!" and replace with your vote, i.e., Rupert. This makes it easier to tally votes quickly and accurately. Oh, and btw... nicknames are tougher to tally unless they're REALLY obvious without actually reading your vote. 2. Reply ONLY to this post! Curves on women are good. Curves on vote threads are bad. The first part bears repeating: I like curves on women. EXCEPTION TO RULE 2! VOTE CHANGES! If it just so happens that you wanna change your vote for whatever reason, REPLY TO YOUR ORIGINAL POST! Your new post heading should read "VOTE CHANGE: Osten (or Whoever)". That said, there is not exception to the fact that curves on women are good. 3. THIS IS NOT A DISCUSSION THREAD! DO NOT TREAT IT AS SUCH! There are plenty of places on the Spoilers Forum to debate the merits of people's arguments. Let's keep it out of here, please. 4. No sig pics! It was suggested that because this can be such a long thread, sig pics make it really hard to load for folks with dial-up connections. So show some respect to your slower brethren (and sistren). Happy voting! Criminals From the Neck Up | The Writers' Rendez-Vous | SmokeLong Quarterly
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cqvenus 9765 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-01-03, 02:04 AM (EST)
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1. "Shawn" |
dollar and a dream. hey, you never know.
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-01-03, 03:01 AM (EST)
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2. "Rupert" |
This week is tough. The title United We Stand, Divided We....leads me to believe that after the spout with Sandra/Jon, the dream team starts to fall apart; and I think after losing another Reward Challenge, Team Morgan hits rock bottom and decides to pull it all out and wins the IC. We have spoilers that Trish, Christa, Sandra and Burton stick around for a while. Also, the spoilers of the first several booted state its a male that is the 3rd to leave the game. This leaves Shawn, Rupert and Jon. Jon seems to have not had a story line develop at all yet. He was obnoxious in Episode 1, disappeared in Episode 2 and will seem to start drama in Episode 3. Perhaps, Jon will take over as the temporary star of the show after the departure of our favorite pirate Rupert. Jon seems to have to much pre-show hype to go this soon. And JP even said, you'll start to root for Jon. Well, from the scenes of Ep. 3, doesn't look like we'll be rooting for Jon yet. Down to Shawn and Rupert. Burton, Michelle and Jon are not voting against Shawn. Christa and Sandra are not voting against Rupert. What does Trish do. Join the majority or force a tie and face the purple rock. Rupert made a HUGE deal about Shawn losing the spear. Something disappears this week that infuriates the tribe. Could it be the spear lost by Mr. No one else fish except for me. Where Shawn was being set up for the fall so far, I think with all the hype Rupert has been given, they had to give him all the screen time they could early on for an early departure. Rupert has got to be the most memorable Survivor to date, and he has been given his own commercial in honor of his contribution to the show even though he won't make it past Episode 3. Alternate: Shawn
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-01-03, 01:53 PM (EST)
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36. "Vote Change - Shawn" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-01-03 AT 02:48 PM (EST)Going with my gut. After Episode 1, I had decided Shawn would be the first from Drake to go. Going with the gut. (Edited to add explanation) In Episode 1, we saw Sandra and Christa upset that Shawn, Burton and Michelle had coconut milk and didn't share. We saw Trish comment about them alienating themselves. Jon made comments as well. Episode 2, Shawn loses the spear. Again, Christa calls him a puss. Rupert calls him worthless. I even made an assumption that maybe this time Rupert loses the spear, but I don't think he'd let them happen. What would be more likely and could cause the downfall of Shawn is for him to lose it AGAIN. He's been low on the Chattermeter. This often happens when a castaway isn't happy with their performance, is an unlikely early boot and disappears...like Jed in Thailand.
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strid333 2928 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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10-01-03, 03:25 AM (EST)
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3. "The Remaining Ryan" |
Even though, in writing the SOTS, it appears that most signs are pointing towards Rupert, I just can't vote for that loveable pirate.
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7sins_pride 127 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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10-01-03, 04:13 AM (EST)
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4. "Shawn" |
Sayo.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-01-03, 07:30 AM (EST)
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5. "Jon" |
alternates: Rupert if Drake, Lill if Morgan.
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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10-01-03, 09:01 AM (EST)
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7. "Lil or Osten" |
I believe Drake wins again. I just can't determine if Lil will go or they finally realize Osten's strength isn't doing squat.
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JazzyJax 531 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-01-03, 09:24 AM (EST)
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9. "Ryan O" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-01-03 AT 10:55 AM (EST)Going out on a limb here, but I believe the "United we stand.." statement refers to Morgan's clique of Andrew & crew. Someone in the clique either disagrees about Osten or loses something important. Whiny Andrew is still too much in charge though, and targets someone expendable. To me, the RC Morgan boat swamping and the IC? celebratory backflip seems to continue the Drake dominance. JazzyJax
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frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-01-03, 09:36 AM (EST)
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10. "Andrew" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-01-03 AT 10:40 AM (EST)There. I said it. I copying my reason from the "United we stand..." thread because I'm too lazy to retype it. >Already with two fewer tribe members, the Morgan tribe continues to grapple with what tribe members perceive as Osten giving less than 100%.
This just has Andrew written all over it. Andrew has been assigning percentages to his tribemates since Ep.1. He complained about Ryan in confessionals and at TC. I can't count the number of times I've heard the guy yapping about percents. Osten giving "less than 100%" is no doubt the opinion of Andrew. I say the concerns about Osten are misdirection (keep in mind that his lack of effort is merely "perceived" and all tribe members may not agree with this perception). Both Morgan boots were Andrew targets, and I'll betcha Morgan is going to catch on in this episode and set Andrew and his ego sailing off into the sunset. Also, Andrew fits the nondescript description of "a man," Snewser's third boot. Edited to add that an Andrew boot fits OFG theory, and also he was rumoured to return healthy with no noticeable weight loss.
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-01-03, 09:40 AM (EST)
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11. "Rupert" |
I think Drake is going to TC. So who's going home from Drake?We've seen Shawn and Burton described as: 1) the dynamic duo (indicating alliance) 2)Two Alpha males competing for the tribe leadership (1 too many) So the question is, what's the true relationship? Dynamic duo or competing Alpha males? Considering Krautboys unspoken truths I'm thinking they are more dynamic duo. So Shawn is probably safe. Jon has too much story left to go (if JP isn't lying thru is teeth about Jon's redemption). That leaves Rupert or one of the girls. One of the lessons we've learned by now I think, is that SURVIVOR is about surviving stressed social settings. Folks who spend a lot of time out fishing (Kel) often times don't form the bonds needed to survive a TC vote. Assuming Drake goes to TC, I'm afraid Ruperts getting the AX, and Survivor Pearl Island, becomes a little less fun to watch.
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toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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10-01-03, 09:53 AM (EST)
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12. "Jon" |
Even typing this, I haven't decided whose name to put in the subject. Four likely candidates: Shawn, Jon, Rupert, Andrew. Rupert has been getting mucho hype and I'm sure he's going very soon, but will it be this week? Or will it be anonymous Shawn. I'd pick Jon except for the JP quote about rooting for him. So maybe it's like RobbZ and we root for him in the episode he gets booted out, so I'm going to pick him! Next week: Rupert walks the plank.
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scante60a 76 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-01-03, 10:12 AM (EST)
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13. "Rupert" |
I haven't gotten to a point where I want to root for Jon, so given JP's quote about coming to like Jon - it hasn't happened yet. Also, from the vidclips, it looks like Drake will be tasting defeat for the first time. With his emotional reaction to Shawn's loss of the spear last week, I think there will be enough tribe members at Drake who are willing to cut Rupert loose and try fishing for themselves.
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Amily 88 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-01-03, 10:16 AM (EST)
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14. "Jon" |
Here's hoping
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jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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10-01-03, 10:16 AM (EST)
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15. "Andrew" |
His story line as the leader has played out. I think Rupert and Jon are not set to leave yet. All of our story is still taking place at Drake. No one from their tribe is going home yet.
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Dragonomine 20 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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10-01-03, 10:35 AM (EST)
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17. "Jon" |
Jon
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-01-03, 11:00 AM (EST)
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18. "Shawn" |
I'm stuck between Shawn, Rupert, Andrew, and Ryan O.Each argument makes logical sense. On the Drake side, it really depends on how tribal dynamics go after the item is lost. They may just ALL get mad at one person (Shawn), or they may split into alliances (Rupert). With Morgan, I'd probably say Andrew would go because of our foreshadowing: "In some cultures, when a tribe is down, they sacrifice their leader" Alt: Andrew
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wendyp 2081 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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10-01-03, 11:22 AM (EST)
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20. "jon" |
Well not sure and this is hoping that Rupert is staying!
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realityluver 267 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-01-03, 11:43 AM (EST)
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21. "Shawn" |
Don't know why, but had to pick someone.
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Chez 777 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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10-01-03, 11:44 AM (EST)
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22. "Rupert" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-01-03 AT 11:46 AM (EST)For awhile now, I have been thinking the "big Lie/Big Regret" involves someone hiding the spear. This has the potential for Jeff to call it "horrible" as it has the implication of people subsequently starving. It might also not be an apparent lie to the tribe, if the perpetrator was voted off right away. I had been thinking this person would be Jon. But somehow I don't think he is capable of the "regret" part. Also, his face time so far is too small. Rupert on the other hand, though lovable to the audience, has already demonstrated his tendency to play the pirate-thing to its fullest - by stealing the shoes at Ep 1. I think he may let himself get carried away a bit in response to Shawn's losing the spear tip last week, and he may decide he is going to "punish" the rest of the tribe for awhile. Therefore he hides the spear or tip, never thinking this would tilt his net value to the tribe to the negative side. Then, when Drake loses immunity, he becomes the target due to the majority ganging up on him. I do believe Rupert would really sense a lot of regret afterwards, as he would realize he had overplayed his hand.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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10-01-03, 12:31 PM (EST)
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24. "Rupert" |
Episode 3:The Morgan Tribe vote, to send Skinny Ryan home, was almost unanimous. Only Ryan and Lillian voted for Osten. Lillian is not part of Andrews voting block, the weakest link that Andrew will target, and the lone remaining outsider on the Tribe. Lillian will be the next to go when the Morgan Tribe returns to tribal council. We have a spoiler from Buckeenie that states Lillian gets voted out EP4 or EP5
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/3983.shtml#50 Also from SNN: The Accidental Tourist "Reports to date have helped us identify ousted players. The first to arrive at the Ponderosa is most likely Nicole. She was followed by a tall, skinny male. Our sources weren't sure whether this male was Ryan Shoulders or not. The third arrival is also male. Our information on the early non jury boots also includes an older woman." The reliability of this information was confirmed by the first two boots, therefore, the report of the third arrival being male cant be ignored. From this information, we can only conclude that the EP3 boot is not Lillian and is male, in which case Drake must be the tribe going to Tribal council this week. The four males on Drake are Rupert, Jon, Shawn and Burton. Burton has had little face time and a low confessional count. In addition, it is rumored that he will still be in the game around the time of the family visit (always post merge). Shawn may be a puss, as Christa pointed out, but he is protected by his alliance with Burton and his physical contributions in the challenges. He is also less obnoxious and more hard-working than Jon, who would most likely be voted out before him. That leaves us with Rupert and Jon as primary boot candidates in EP3. The confessional analysis
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4107.shtml
also confirms that Rupert and Jon are the primary male targets on the Drake tribe in EP3. Pearl Islands Episode 3 Title: United We Stand, Divided We
? The Drake Tribe is undefeated and united. Victory has insulated them from having to make the difficult decisions of alliance building and tribal council voting
the things that begin to divide a tribe, forcing the tribe members to choose sides and target one of their own
Based on our analysis of the tribal relationships
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4102.shtml
we have Rupert, Christa and Sandra on one side and Burton, Shawn, Jon and Michelle on the other side, with Trish in the middle.Rupert is vulnerable if Trish chooses to avoid a tie situation at TC. JP Interviews: As for his dislike of Dalton, Probst says he eventually developed a grudging respect for the 29-year-old contestant. "Here's where it gets twisted: That same guy you're hoping falls on his face, the moment he does fall on his face, you instantly want him to get up. And then you're pulling for him." Jeff made several comments about his dislike for Jon Dalton, but also mentioned that he eventually developed a grudging respect for him. Given Jons disappearance during EP2, it seems unlikely that JP would have time to develop a grudging respect for Jon if he were to leave the game in EP3. In order to earn JPs respect Johnny FairPlay would have to do something to earn his moniker, something like getting rid of Rupert in order to save himself
Nicoles Friends From Nicoles post game interviews, it appears that Rupert is one of the only Drakes she got to know. This is perhaps an indication that Rupert is the first if not the only Drake she spent time with at the lodge, before they were allowed to travel more freely. SNNs Scorecard: Despite his apparent massive popularity among viewers, and intimidating persona, a little birdie tells us that "his tribe members were not the least bit afraid of voting Rupie out. SNN has Rupert listed as a pre-jury boot, and from all indications the alpha males, Shawn and Burton, may feel threatened by Rupert, Jon may feel threatened by Ruperts alliance with Sandra, and if Rupert loses the fishing spear (or accused of it), the tribe may decide they dont need him around any more
Looks like Rupert will be going in EP3.
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anninvt2002 86 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-01-03, 01:00 PM (EST)
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26. "Lil or Shawn" |
The only observation I have to offer this week is something that is absent.....pics of the IC. Why? Because Drake shows up to the IC with their clothes or new clothes because they win RC. It is the only explanation of why these video previews are absent. It would give away the RC win. I am with Veruca...I dont believe that Drake loses the II this week. Thus the two pics. We need to have LIl gone at some point so she can return.
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O2dawg 68 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-01-03, 01:01 PM (EST)
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27. "RUPERT" |
Absolutely agree with Krautboys' analysis. Also, in addition, the amount of airtime that Rupert has received, seems to allow for an early Rupert boot. Especially when contrasted with the rest of the Drake men. Rupert is a very outspoken man, and I would imagine that he has grated on the nerves of some of the Drake team. But MB probably saw that he could play Rupert as the big fun-loving pirate, and so we havent seen Drake say anything too negative about him. Jon would have been my first pick, but JP's admission that he grudgingly gains respect for Jon has put his ousting for a much later date. ARRRRRGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!
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RoxRen 5 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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10-01-03, 01:14 PM (EST)
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29. "Rupert" |
I think it might be a tie between Rupert & Jon...Rupert will lose via bad luck!
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redbeard103152 466 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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10-01-03, 01:22 PM (EST)
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30. "Rupert" |
A gut feeling aided by the opinions of prior spoilers leads me to cast my vote for the Drake Pirate. Sorry big fellow we will miss ya.
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ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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10-01-03, 01:38 PM (EST)
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31. "Rupert" |
Alt: Shawn
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PlumBlossom 679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-01-03, 01:41 PM (EST)
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32. "Lillian" |
Osten is my second choice.
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buckeyegirl 5449 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-01-03, 01:44 PM (EST)
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33. "Jon" |
Just sticking to my PTTE!
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-01-03, 01:45 PM (EST)
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34. "Rupert "Blackbeard" Boneham" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-02-03 AT 12:39 PM (EST)Thanks to Krautboy for finding JP's "grudging respect" quote about Jon -- I was looking for it all morning. As KB says, all the arrows point to Lill as Morgan's next boot. Factor in the Snewser spoiler (and he has his checkmark in place on the scorecard), Buckeenie's spoiler, and this little bit of faux-suspense from the CBS preview... VO: "...Plus for a tribe with a streak of bad luck, it's gut check time" RyanO: " We need to be more of a team" Andrew: "If we go to another Tribal Council, we're finished" ...and it looks to me like Morgan gets a temporary reprieve from TC this week. Rupert will emerge with the most votes at TC. I think it's possible that even Christa and Sandra (who said she'd be Jon's buddy if it would get her further, and who Snewser now has pegged to make jury) will vote against Rupert to save their necks. Next week: Morgan boots Lillian, or Drake boots Ryan O. in the aftermath of a switch.
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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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10-01-03, 01:48 PM (EST)
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35. "Jon" |
Since most of the weight spoilers involve members of Morgan, they have to start winning the Immunity Challenges. Since we have a spoiler indicating the third bootee is a male, that limits the field even further. Jon is the obnoxious one. He is the likely male to go, if a Drake male is going
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mtopaz 2167 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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10-01-03, 02:19 PM (EST)
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38. "Rupert" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-01-03 AT 02:21 PM (EST)I really hope I'm wrong. But KrautBoy's excellent analysis has convinced me that Rupert is likely the next Survivor voted off the island. I imagine Shawn and Burton feel that with three remaining healthy males, they will remain strong in competitions. However, I think they will soon find out their mistake, when Jon fails to pick up the slack and the tribe begins to eat less well than before. Alt pick: If Morgan goes, then Lil goes. edited to change "Drake" to "Morgan" - will I ever get these tribe names right?
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Schnookie Palookie 16822 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-01-03, 02:35 PM (EST)
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39. "Shawn" |
Alt. Andrew
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1derfool 185 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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10-01-03, 03:33 PM (EST)
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40. "Andrew" |
He's all talk, no action.
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djandy 1711 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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10-01-03, 04:11 PM (EST)
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42. "Jon" |
Probably just wishful thinking because he's so obnoxious. Alt: Rupert.
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corcam 374 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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10-01-03, 04:16 PM (EST)
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43. "Jon" |
I dont want to vote for Rupert and I think it would be stupid for Drake to get rid of their food supplier but they are dumb LOL..... as for the alpha male I think Rupert has that title hands down and that probably has the other guys panties all up in a bunch...
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lroy 536 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-01-03, 04:16 PM (EST)
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44. "Vote Tally #3" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-01-03 AT 04:17 PM (EST)This is post number 44 tallying 40 Votes 2 Half Votes 1 Vote tally: Rupert - 12 Jon - 11 Shawn - 7.5 (7 votes, 1 1/2 vote) Andrew - 5 Lil - 3 (2 Votes, 2 1/2 votes) Ryan O - 2 Osten - .5 Argh, no more half votes!!! ~lroy Edited to fix for fasted posters!
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KLicK 316 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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10-01-03, 04:35 PM (EST)
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45. "Rupert" |
Time's up.
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smrtNsassybnkr 332 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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10-01-03, 04:39 PM (EST)
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46. "Please let it be Jon" |
He bugs me already!
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Jules72 3 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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10-01-03, 04:43 PM (EST)
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47. "Andrew" |
First time poster, long time visitor.
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SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-01-03, 04:55 PM (EST)
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48. "Burton" |
Me no likey people under the radar.
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tig_ger 2098 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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10-01-03, 05:01 PM (EST)
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49. "Jon" |
Joining all of the other wishful thinkers.
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memacmur 359 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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10-01-03, 05:03 PM (EST)
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50. "Shawn" |
Maybe it's denial that Rupert could go this early. Since Jon and Sandra fight in the previews, both of them are likely safe. I'm also thinking that my perfect record of spoiling (along with everyone else's) is going to start moving in another direction with this episode. Oh well. Alt pick - Andrew. I think the tribe is beginning to realize they picked a pretty crappy leader. Bad leaders are always the ones who promise to do something right after someone else (Jiffy) suggests it to them, and not before. MEmacmur Spoiling Record: 2-0
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SnowBunny 79 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-01-03, 05:15 PM (EST)
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51. "Shawn" |
I believe last week highlighted Shawn's carelessness with materials and tools around the camp, and (if he's the one who loses something valuable again this week) he's in danger of the first Drake boot.
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Devious Weasel 18756 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-01-03, 05:24 PM (EST)
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52. "Lillian" |
Voting my gut. Course, we all know where that got Lex...
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Steen 1544 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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10-01-03, 05:25 PM (EST)
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53. "Jon" |
I really have no idea
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LeftPinky 4150 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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10-01-03, 05:30 PM (EST)
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54. "Rupert" |
Sad..... alt is Rhino...
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railfan 450 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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10-01-03, 05:33 PM (EST)
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56. "Rupert" |
Lots of different directions to go here, but I think most all the MISdirection suggests that Rupert's boot would be the biggest surprise to the general audience. So that's the way I'll go.
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bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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10-01-03, 05:47 PM (EST)
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57. "Jon" |
Wow. Tough week. Should be really fun to see how things play out.I was going to vote Rupert until I saw that TDT has him safe for this week. Snewser already knows who the bootee is, and since he has not changed his "potential suckitude", all I can do is go with Jon. The preview of Jon and Sandra having a fight and Sandra saying "Jon's an a$$" is classic mis-direction. And Jon being booted flies in the face of that. But that's the best I can do. MB DOES give us an obvious boot on occasion, maybe this is it. ALT: If Morgan goes to TC, then they boot Lil. bebe
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Ajenda 12 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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10-01-03, 05:57 PM (EST)
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58. "Andrew" |
Come on, eventually Morgan has to catch on...right?
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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-01-03, 06:34 PM (EST)
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60. "Johnny Fairplay" |
is fair game.
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forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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10-01-03, 06:43 PM (EST)
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61. "Lil - playing ep3 devil's advocate with KB logic" |
Well, its ep3 again. Just like last season I thought Id play devils advocate with KBs logic. Again all in good sport, I have tremendous respect for KBs spoiling abilities.IF MORGAN GOES LIL IS NEXT The Morgan Tribe vote, to send Skinny Ryan home, was almost unanimous. Only Ryan and Lillian voted for Osten. Lillian is not part of Andrews voting block, the weakest link that Andrew will target, and the lone remaining outsider on the Tribe. Lillian will be the next to go when the Morgan Tribe returns to tribal council. This is where I agree. Its simple, parsimonious, Occams Razor, whatever you want to call it. BUCKEENIE SPOILER We have a spoiler from Buckeenie that states Lillian gets voted out EP4 or EP5
Even though AyaK has verified the connection, that does not mean the content of the spoiler is true. This sounds a lot like the Heidi goes per milkshaky spoiler from S6. THIRD BOOT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE MALE Also from SNN: The Accidental Tourist "Reports to date have helped us identify ousted players. The first to arrive at the Ponderosa is most likely Nicole. She was followed by a tall, skinny male. Our sources weren't sure whether this male was Ryan Shoulders or not. The third arrival is also male. Our information on the early non jury boots also includes an older woman." The reliability of this information was confirmed by the first two boots, therefore, the report of the third arrival being male cant be ignored. Actually, Griffe has retracted the male part, here at SB, at Sucks, and also on SNN the above has been edited. KB LOGIC From this information, we can only conclude that the EP3 boot is not Lillian and is male, in which case Drake must be the tribe going to Tribal council this week. Well, as I pointed out above, neither EP3 is not Lil nor EP3 boot is male has to hold. YET THIS EP3 TITLE Problem/question: is the ep3 title "United we stand, divided we ...." Misdirection or does it mean Drake fills in the dots with "v o t e" ? We know almost nothing about the IC. Maybe Drake gets disqualified somehow? How else could Morgan win the IC? cowboyroo provides a nice alternative explanation of the title: United Morgan stands, divided Morgan continues to lose challenges SNEWSER Snewser has a checkmark next to ep3. He knows. He only has Ryan O, Rupert and Jon in his potential bootee section, with Jon on the top.... This certainly means that Snewser knows. However, even if he knows and does not update his scorecard, we still need to add Lil (and maybe Trish unlikely though) to the list of boot candidates. Snewser has mentioned that an early boot (an older woman) returns to the game and ends up in the final 2. DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING WHO ON DRAKE WOULD GO EP3 Many arguments have been made for and against Rupert, Jon, Sandra, and even Shawn. Yet, its very hard to buy in to any of them getting the boot. Rupert upgraded by TDT as safe, he heard Rupert will last a little while longer. Jon all over the previews in conflict with Sandra. There would be little to no time left in ep3 to start rooting for Jon per JP (granted JP quotes can often be ignored, but this time there is so much JP hype around Jon, there has to be some redemption for Jon). Sandra upgraded by Snewser (chirp in his scorecard). Shawn low on the chatter meter according to Snewser (yet he knows who is the boot). The difficulty in determining who would go on Drake this week, lends further support to a Drake IC win. We have seen almost nothing of the IC (only Michelle hanging from a tripod). Morgan has certainly shown their capabilities to do very poorly in any challenge what could turn them around??? CONCLUSION This is a tough ep3 week. Yet, the simplest answer would be Lil. Morgan has a hard time winning challenges. Lil is the only one left from the Ryan S Lil pair. I think she goes, and then later in the game she returns. forehead
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Joyful 232 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-01-03, 06:56 PM (EST)
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62. "Rupert" |
It sooo hurts to put that!!!! I'm wondering with all this talk about a tie between Jon and Rupert that maybe the tribe has to vote again to try and break the tie and that's how Rupert goes. Maybe this is the "big regret". Maybe the tribe chooses to keep Jon over Rupert and later on they severely regret keeping that goober around. I "heart" Rupert
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tribalwatcher 56 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-01-03, 07:06 PM (EST)
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63. "Rupert" |
I hope not, but that's my best guess.
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ejm92 2221 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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10-01-03, 07:08 PM (EST)
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64. "Jon" |
I think it's gonna be Jon this week....history has shown (including last week) that even thought stronger members may be liked, they usually are kept around to help out the tribe....(exception = Hunter)....and I think Drake is smarter than Maraamu. What worries me however is that the fight between Sandra and Jon could be misdirection and Morgan could go to yet another Tribal Council..in that case I have a feeling that Ryan O. won't last much longer.
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IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-01-03, 08:43 PM (EST)
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67. "Miss Lillian" |
Better minds than mine, with more inside info, are leaning toward Lillian. I'll agree. This will set up a big redemption theme for both Miss Lil and for Morgan.
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Yogi 1206 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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10-01-03, 10:28 PM (EST)
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70. "Jon" |
Lots of good opinions on others being booted but my gut says Jon (Sandra a close second).
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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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10-01-03, 11:00 PM (EST)
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71. "Jon (idiotic reasoning included)" |
I think voters are getting lost in spoiler "interpretation" and not focusing on two (one old and one new) key principles of survivor:1) Bootees have fewest allies/friends (and most "enemies"). Rupert seems to be bonded with Burton, Christa, and Sandra. Sandra seems to be bonded with Rupert, Christa, Trish. Jon seems to be bonded with Michelle (and is clearly disliked by Rupert, Sandra, Christa). Shawn seems to be bonded with Burton (and clearly disliked by Rupert, Sandra, Christa, Michelle). So the true boot choice here is between Jon and Shawn, and IF logic is utilized in this choice, then they should toss the weaker of the two: Jon. 2) This is Survivor SEVEN! The novelty is gone. You can't hide the drama in the previews just because it is linked to the boot. Sandra and Jon go at it, they scream, they curse - if that is the hottest activity in 3 days then it makes the previews, regardless if either one ends up being booted. The Movie "Titanic" made loads of money and everybody knew the ending. At this point, smart Survivor production should be using a "if it bleeds it leads" mentality for previews, even if the blood loss leads to the boot. So, boot choices are Sandra and Jon. Coupled to #1 above, Jon is my choice. Just my thoughts...perhaps after too many ho ho ho's and bottles of rum... BI
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lroy 536 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-01-03, 11:08 PM (EST)
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72. "Vote Tally #3 (the real #3)" |
This is post number 72 Tallying:One change Two Halvsies 68 Votes And a Partridge in a Pear Tree Jon - 19 Rupert - 17 Shawn - 10.5 Andrew - 8 Lili - 8 Ryan O - 2 Burton - 1 Sandra - 1 Christa - 1 Osten - .5 Looks like Jon and Rupert have the targets on their chest... ~lroy
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Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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10-01-03, 11:09 PM (EST)
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73. "HEY JON..." |
...it's time for you to go!
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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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10-02-03, 02:39 AM (EST)
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76. "Rupert" |
After nearly going ballistic when someone else lost the spear last episode, Rupert will lose the spear THIS episode, and the tribe will be irate at his actions (forgetting that he found the thing last time, and if it weren't for him, they wouldn't have had it anyway).In the painful IC (near drowning???), two team members will literally get injured, and Drake will choose to vote out Rupert instead of Jon because Jon may be more of an asset to the tribe in the future. Morgan goes on a win streak, winning both RC and IC. Will any of this REALLY happen? No... probably not... but Rupert is gone.
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benjapol 93 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-02-03, 03:17 AM (EST)
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77. "RYAN O" |
After thinking for a while, I came down with 4 candidates, Rupert, Shawn, Lill,and Rhino. I don't want to see Ryan go but unfortunately, my gut is saying it's him. Here are the reasons1) His quote last TC "I'll see you once I'm outta here" foreshadows that he'd see RyanS at LoserLodge 2) Ep4 seems to be a twist. No way there's gonna be a twist if Morgan wins this IC,they gotta wait till Ep5 when both tribes are even. The only reason to have a player swap in Ep4 is that Morgan loses all the IC like Maraamu in S4. 3) MB seems to have given him as much air-time as he could. Of course, not as much as some other players because he was not a drama queen. But He has already been featured quite a lot on promo. Plus his vote for RyanS was shown last episode. 4) Snewser said 3rd boot was a guy. The only 3 who fit the description are Ryan,Shawn,and Andrew. Jon is more blonde than Nicole and Rupert is way too noticeable to be called a guy. Of these three, Ryan is the only one in his sucktitude category 5) However I can't see any reasons why Morgans would vote him off, unless he was the one who loses the item. My second choice would be Lill. The only reason she isn't my first choice this week is because Snewser identified 3rd boot as a guy My third choice is Rupert. He was my first choice earlier this week when I hadn't seen Episode4 title which seems to suggest that Drake wins IC again. And also remember Burton cheering on the first night in episode 1 "For new friends,good friends, and nobody going home anytime soon." But if Drake goes to TC, Rupert will be the one voted off. Alternate choice would be Shawn and Andrew. They both could be 'a guy' but Shawn seems to be protected by alliance and Morgan seems to just follow whatever Andrew tells them to do. May change my vote. This week is very tough.
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ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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10-02-03, 03:43 AM (EST)
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78. "John" |
He's the funny one, yes, but also the outsider.
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-02-03, 09:11 AM (EST)
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79. "Osten" |
No one's convincing me that Morgan wins the IC. It's clearly a physical challenge, and Drake is at least twice as physically strong as Morgan. I know we have spoilers that place Osten in the final 4, but to my knowledge (outside of any insider info that Snewser has) it's only that he looked thinner and complained about how hard it was. Heck, it's all he does NOW. Ryan Aiken from S6 complained about how hard it was, and he was only there 3 days. Osten is not lying that he wants out. It would be an incredibly stupid strategy at this point. He's the least likely to be voted out by Morgan if he just keeps his trap shut. Still, after losing what is likely to be 5 straight challenges, his attitude is going to wear really, really thin. Lil hit it on the head. He can't stand to lose, and he's a quitter. He actually quit on Day 3. Based on Ryan's web chat, there's no sense of LL reconciliation with Andrew. He doesn't really know Ryan O. or Darrah. I can't see Tijuana going this week. That leaves Lil as the only other option, and we have an Ep 4 or 5 estimated exit time for her. Fester
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samboohoo 17173 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-02-03, 09:41 AM (EST)
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81. "Jon" |
Maybe we start to root for Jon after his fight with Sandra.
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Rain Crow 374 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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10-02-03, 10:34 AM (EST)
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84. "Rupert" |
Arrr! This be a difficult voyage me hearties.I chose Rupert because: 1. Personal Commercial-CBS getting max use out of a viewer favorite. OFG Theory to the MAX. 2. Snewser heard a "chirp" about Rupert and he is one of the three with "thumbs down". He has yet to give a thumbs down to Lil. He does give a thumbs down to Ryan O., but is apparently still thinking about it. I have a hard time believing Snewser would not have the next bootee on his thumbs down list. 3. Jon's blowup is a red herring. His story is yet to be played out per Jiffy. 4. Nicole got to know Rupert in Loser Lodge. 5. "United we Stand, Divided we ...." title clearly indicates something going on at Drake. It is a bad omen. 6. If Drake must sit out one man and one woman (per the RC) they will probably sit out Shawn and Sandra as the "weakest links" since Michele and Jon sat out the RC. I think Morgan's Osten, Andrew, and Ryan O. will beat out Drake's Burton, Rupert, and Jon, assuming the women contestants are relatively equal. Morgan wins. Drake goes to IC. 7. Rupert appears to be easily tired...witness his exhaustion in the village in Episode 1. He may be having more physical difficulty than we are being show. Swimming may be easier for him due to bouyancy of the water. 8. Rupert is a big threat to other Alpha males, and they will not want him on the Jury...get him off early.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-02-03, 10:42 AM (EST)
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85. "Lillian" |
Before explaining why, I'll mock Nailbone for leaving his sig pic in his vote. I was all ready to put a Jon vote in here, but some things have been bothering me: - The previews show Michelle giving a thumbs-up. Yeah, maybe it's her way of responding to Jiffy when he says, "Survivors ready?" at the start of the challenge. But why show this particular pic for the challenge? Is it a hint that Michelle's tribe gets the thumbs-up this week? - Jon got drunk, Jon got invisible, Jon got in a fight. Would this pattern make sense if Jon were the bootee this week? Not really, when compared to prior season's editing. It would make sense if he were next week's bootee, though. Besides, if Drake gets the "thumbs-up" this week, he's not going no matter how obnoxious he is. So, if it's Morgan going to TC, who will it be? - Was Jiffy foreshadowing when he told Andrew at TC that some tribes cannabalize their leader when they're this far down? Possibly. It wouldn't be unprecedented to lose an alpha male in E3, after hunky Hunter's ouster in Marquesas. But would a weak team really want to get rid of a strong swimmer at this point? And if they did, don't you think Ryan would have mended some fences with him at the Loser Lodge? Doesn't sound like they had the chance to make nice, which means I don't think Andrew made this early of a visit there. - Osten's been a whiny crybaby, and interviews are suggesting that this is genuine "I wanna go home" crying. And there are interferences that he may lose an item crucial to the team's survival. Getting rid of Osten would be getting rid of the weakest mental link, plus he's a sucky swimmer. But while I think that could get him a vote at TC, I don't think it could get him sent packing. Because... - We have an outsider in the tribe whose main ally just got voted out in E2. We have spoiler information suggesting that she may return to the game, which means she has to leave the game. So I'm going to stick with Lillian getting votes from everyone but herself. She'll again vote for Osten, for the same reasons she did last time.
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RudyRules 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-02-03, 04:12 PM (EST)
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110. "VOTE CHANGE - Lillian" |
I'm too late for spoiler island but not too late for here or another contest I'm in for real cash $$$ (Tied for first with one other person )
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blacknwhitedog 6532 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-02-03, 11:31 AM (EST)
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87. "Scoutmaster Lillian" |
Her card was dealt last week. She is out of the loop and her only ally is gone.
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Breezy 18380 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-02-03, 11:37 AM (EST)
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88. "Lillian" |
Going with my PTTE, although I think it will be Jon.
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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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10-02-03, 12:20 PM (EST)
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89. "Jon" |
This guy pisses off Sandra, and he get's the boot over everybody's favorite pirate.
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-02-03, 12:38 PM (EST)
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90. "Lillian" |
I'm torn between Lill and Jon, but at this point there seems to be little more than the law of averages to believe the Morgan wins the Immunity Challenge, and right now it's pretty clear that Lil is the Morgan outsider (barring a mutiny against Andrew -- which I consider less likely to happen right now... who there has shown anything close to the balls to lead such a thing so far?) so she seems to be the safe boot should Morgan go to TC -- Ep4/5 spoiler or not. And the rumor that Lil's husband was on the radio this morning staying she was just planning a "quiet viewing at home tonight" after some more public parties the first two weeks tipped the tables for me.No offense to the Rupert folks, any maybe I'm just putting way too much credit in the Rupert promo among other things, but I just don't see him going this week... definitely likely pre-jury, and definitely if he gets switched to Morgan or such next week or the week after, but just not yet. Lill is my pick with Jon as the "in plain sight, Jiffy's comment is another 'Liz kicks some ass' red herring" alternate pick. Now if you'll excuse me I have another Red Sox torture session I have to get ready for... -SB
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DataShark 1395 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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10-02-03, 01:03 PM (EST)
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92. "Lillian" |
I think Drake wins RC/IC again this week.
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Thaibeach 872 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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10-02-03, 01:29 PM (EST)
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94. "Shawn" |
Alt: Andrew (Misto, I hope your theory is correct!)
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texcanldy 13 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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10-02-03, 01:29 PM (EST)
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95. "Lillian" |
I just think the Morgan tribe won't be able to pull it together.
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queencityfan 123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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10-02-03, 01:43 PM (EST)
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97. "Big Lil" |
Well, it could have been worse, she could have been first! Here's hoping for re-incarnation!
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SteffiGurl 358 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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10-02-03, 01:47 PM (EST)
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98. "Rupert" |
He's being edited quite heavily. There's been a feature commercial entirely about him. His possible alliance of Christa & Sandra seem outnumbered. Shawn and Burton likely have Michelle, Jon and probably Trish, and Shawn more than likely wants to boot Rupert for personal reasons, probably using the excuse that Rupert gets out of hand, and intimidates the tribe. I expect alot of Rupert slamming tonight by his fellow tribemates.
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tamarama 1785 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
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10-02-03, 01:58 PM (EST)
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99. "Lillian!!" |
I hate voting this late.Anywho -- I think the extra confusion & scant challenge info is due to Drake stomping the snot out of Morgan AGAIN. I also think that Poophead though he is, Andrew's going to hang on to his herd for at least one more boot. Goodbye Diamond Lil! (if Drake loses IC, I think Jon will go. Don't think he's the liar, think we've seen & will see enough to warrant JP's hypalicious comments, he's a loser baby, so why don't you boot him)
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-02-03, 02:13 PM (EST)
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100. "Lillian...." |
and it will really suck if she comes back. That would be a very bad way to do survivor.
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-02-03, 02:23 PM (EST)
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101. "Lillian" |
Well I waited until Snewser put up his pick, so I guess if correct, I cannot take much credit for this pick. I am just wondering how many people will now be jumping off the sinking Rupert boat and change their picks.
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Sexishelly 49 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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10-02-03, 02:25 PM (EST)
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102. "Rueben Studdard, oops wrong show, Rubert" |
I really have no idea this week.
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volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-02-03, 02:54 PM (EST)
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104. "Lillian" |
I guess I am a sheep and can't go against snewser!
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-02-03, 03:05 PM (EST)
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105. "Lillian" |
Well this was a confusing week. So I asked my other half what he thought. He doesn't follow the spoilers. But he says Lillian because he believes the Morgan tribe is weak and Lillian is the outsider. So I am going with that logic. No surprises tonight.
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lroy 536 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-02-03, 03:49 PM (EST)
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108. "Vote Tally #4" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-02-03 AT 03:55 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 10-02-03 AT 03:53 PM (EST) This is post number 108, tallying: 101 Votes 4 Changers 2 Tallies 2 Halvsies & a Partridge in a Pear Tree With the "professional" spoilers releasing info today we have a bit of a shake up... Lili - 29 Jon - 25 Rupert - 19 Shawn - 11.5 Andrew - 8 Rhino - 3 Sandra - 2 Osten - 1.5 Burton - 1 Christa - 1 Oy vey, i hope i got it right! ~lroy Edited to add faster posters! argh
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scorpio 25 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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10-02-03, 04:19 PM (EST)
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111. "Sandra" |
Missed the deadline for spoiler island - Might as well make it 2 sucky choices today..... make that drake - morgan - sandra.
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BrykMantra 49 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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10-02-03, 04:37 PM (EST)
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113. "Shawn" |
Wishful thinking.Wish #2 = Jon the Skate Idiot. Duuuude! ----------------------------
http://brykmantra.blogspot.com
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KScott 3265 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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10-02-03, 05:11 PM (EST)
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114. "Lillian" |
-KS
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hrc2u 146 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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10-02-03, 05:27 PM (EST)
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116. "Andrew--- Death to the leader" |
The ships going doing, when the ship goes, so does the leader. hrc2u
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pancho 82 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-02-03, 05:54 PM (EST)
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118. "rupert" |
just to add to my pitiful daw pancho
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wolfinthedark 9 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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10-02-03, 06:18 PM (EST)
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119. "Jon" |
hasnt the 3rd week been the one fooling people the last few games
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travelingbetty 296 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-02-03, 07:21 PM (EST)
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120. "Jon" |
just because
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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