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"State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
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strid333 2928 desperate attention whore postings
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09-30-03, 10:12 PM (EST)
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"State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
LAST EDITED ON 09-30-03 AT 10:24 PM (EST) by SurvivorBlows (admin)

Episode Three


Ladies and Gentlemen of the Survivor spoiling board, we have an interesting week and an interesting show coming up. That said, let’s start summarizing.

Reward Challenge winner

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4106.shtml
This set of vidcaps appears to show the RC. And for once, Morgan may win something.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4098.shtml
This set of vidcaps was discussed a lot. For both the RC and IC, it has been theorized that both tribes have won, though it seems that Morgan is starting a winning streak. It has been discussed that the challenge could be bumper boats and they have to get close to the other team’s boat to pull a plug so the boat fills with water.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4092.shtml
In See BS Misdirection, there is talk that the Drakes are getting stronger while the Morgans are getting weaker. The distraction of a Jon vs. Sandra fight could lead to yet another set of Morgan losses. So, this would contradict some of the other discussions of RC and IC winners. I guess Lil would be the Morgan bootee but there hasn’t been much discussion about another Morgan loss other than here.

Immunity Challenge winner

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4091.shtml
First set of vidcaps. Though there is some speculation about other stuff (Reward Challenge winner), quite a bit of speculation about the IC and the bootee. It looks like Morgan finally wins an IC, and we are fearing for Rupert or Sandra or Jon.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4108.shtml
Another set of vidcaps shows at least one of the challenges (though it looks like both the RC and IC). It could just as easily be the tribes arriving to a challenge, though.

Bootee

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4080.shtml
Episode title is ”United We Stand Divided We . . .” It appears that Drake loses for the first time. And because the third bootee is supposedly a male, it could be bad news for Rupert or Jon. But it appears the bad news is leaning heavily for Rupert. (D’oh because I liked him.)

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4110.shtml
Returning to the Outfrontgirl theory of a person who appears in the promo will be booted out, it appears to be bad news again for Rupert.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4100.shtml
The whole caption appears to be about a big fight between Sandra and Jon. This could lead to the booting of one of the two. There is also other information. It appears that one of the challenges has someone being held up by the rest of the tribe. These captions appear to favour Morgan winning (for once).

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4107.shtml
Krautboy has done an excellent summary of who has had key confessionals. The theory is that people who have lots of confessionals early on, get the boot early on so people who don’t have confessionals get to have them later on when they remain. The conclusion is not good news for Rupert and Jon.

Miscellaneous

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/3976.shtml#15
In the info about Shawn Cohen, the update added during my week asks if he was one of the true people who auditioned or if he is one of those who were found on the street by MB or some other CBS rep.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/3985.shtml
In the info about Burton Roberts, the same theory about Shawn Cohen is mentioned again. Was Burton picked by a CBS rep? But then the lie theory surfaces with Burton Roberts actually being John Burton from Eco-Challenge.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/3988.shtml#14
For Osten Taylor, LadyT was at a party with his former boss. His boss commented that Osten is one who gives up (in the workforce) but then finds some inner strength and keeps going. This may be mirroring his stay on Survivor.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4109.shtml
With RC challenges, the winning tribe gets to pick something from the other tribe. Could it be another contestant? Certainly would be interesting if it could be true, though I don’t think it would be true. I think they were limited to objects.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4111.shtml
Some speculation about how if a tribe votes a strong person out of the tribe before the merger, there is a good chance that the winner of Survivor came from that tribe.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4093.shtml
Not much spoiling here, but Markopolo’s Yahoo Insider is always an interesting read for those of us too cheap to spend money on it.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4102.shtml
Though this may become a long term spoiler, I think it will fall into miscellaneous. Tina (S2 winner) mentioned to watch for small details like body language, facial expressions and interactions like hugging and not to pay as much attention to what is being said to figure out who is comfortable with each other. That could lead to friendships and alliances (that will more likely last). That said, Krautboy did an excellent summary of the tribe members and their interactions.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4052.shtml
Again, Krautboy has thrown some excellent analysis into the picture. In the past, people that have appeared to be teetering on the chopping block have made it very far in the game. This season’s underdog appears to be Lil, the Boy Scout leader. Only time will tell if this analysis is correct.

Long Term Spoilers

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4094.shtml
Ryan S on Early Show has some speculation about Andrew leaving early.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4101.shtml
Ryan’s CBS web chat confirms that Osten will probably not make it very far in the game.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4089.shtml
Yahoo TV listing spoiler (if it happens) only lists a few of the names of the contestants so possibly the names not listed mean early bootees. We will have to keep an eye on this as the weeks roll on.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4099.shtml
Morgan is a poor team (as they exist right now), but supposedly some of their members are last a very long time. Some of the discussion here is how they might last a while. It just may be that Drake loses their fizzle and self-destruct.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4096.shtml
Jiffy said in numerous interviews that this show has the biggest lie ever. Well, who lies and what is it about? The theory here is that Osten faking wanting to go home and so people won’t think he is a huge physical threat. There are some other theories floating around here about Osten but it seems that Osten is the liar.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4086.shtml
This page is a continuation of the Big Lie / Big Twist. It was a newly formed page when the previous one was getting confusing. It didn’t take long for this one to get confusing too. It is an interesting read but almost too much for me to handle. I suggest reading it yourself. Some theories thrown out are people losing money while one person gets it all, the sleeping with someone and then regretting it, Sandra regretting taking the tarp, and Burton Roberts may have been John Burton from Eco-Challenge.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4049.shtml
This week’s conversation about Trish’s picture that looks like it is from a future episode. She has red lipstick so she could possibly be booted and then return. But it could also be that they find the treasure. It is pre-merge because she is wearing a blue buff. But the picture could’ve been from the first episode when they jumped off the ship.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4103.shtml
Next week’s (E4) title is “Pick a Castaway ... Any Castaway” which could mean one of those tribe shuffles or swaps. But it could also mean that in the RC, the winner takes a member of the other team.


Well, ladies and gentlemen of the spoiling board, this concludes the E3 SOTS. I had fun reading all the topics and writing this summary. I hope that this summary is helpful.


Three is the perfect number.


SOTS is provided by
SurvivorBlows.com as a service to our readers. The purpose of this post is to
consolidate the threads in the Spoiler Forum pertaining to this week's
episode. Feel free to reply to this post if you feel that a theory you
support was not adequately represented in this message... Please use
this thread for unified discussion of all topics as we approach the next
episode.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... SurvivorBlows 09-30-03 1
   RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... strid333 09-30-03 3
 RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... tribalwatcher 09-30-03 2
 RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... lroy 09-30-03 4
 RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... cowboyroo 10-01-03 5
   RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... SurvivorBlows 10-01-03 6
   Add Lil to the list forehead 10-01-03 15
   RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... Brownroach 10-01-03 17
       RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... forehead 10-01-03 26
 RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... Ajenda 10-01-03 7
 thanks! cqvenus 10-01-03 8
 RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... CantStandToLook 10-01-03 9
   Sorry...OT clemsonbeav 10-01-03 22
 RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... FarmBoy 10-01-03 10
   RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... wastingtime 10-01-03 11
       Interesting frisky 10-01-03 27
       RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... JazzyJax 10-01-03 30
       You're right! frisky 10-01-03 31
 Thanks so much janisella 10-01-03 12
 RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... Brownroach 10-01-03 13
 RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... mistofleas 10-01-03 14
   RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... URang 10-01-03 16
   RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... Brownroach 10-01-03 19
       RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... mistofleas 10-01-03 20
           RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... frisky 10-01-03 28
 RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... Loree 10-01-03 18
   RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... Brownroach 10-01-03 21
 RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... RudyRules 10-01-03 23
   I say they both go cqvenus 10-01-03 24
 RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode ... Krautboy 10-01-03 25
 Great Job! DoodleBug 10-01-03 29
   RE: Great Job! buckeyegirl 10-04-03 32
 Thanks for the compliments strid333 10-04-03 33

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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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09-30-03, 10:25 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
LAST EDITED ON 09-30-03 AT 10:25 PM (EST)

Pssst... I fixed the layout problem Thank strid!

-SB

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09-30-03, 10:39 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
Thanks for fixing the layout problem.


Three is the perfect number.

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09-30-03, 10:25 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
Thanks for doing all this work and getting everything organized. The State of Spoiling is always so well done by everyone that it almost makes me think I've got things straight. Great job!
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09-30-03, 10:59 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
Nice work Strid! Now i have a ton of reading to do.

~lroy

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10-01-03, 00:13 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
Not sure where to put this, but Snewser has a checkmark next to Episdode 3 that he has it right.

He only has Ryan O, Rupert and Jon in his potential bootee section, with Jon on the top....

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10-01-03, 01:03 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
LAST EDITED ON 10-01-03 AT 02:19 AM (EST)

I've been saying since last week that I'm still not quite convinced a Rupert Week 3 boot, so I hope it's Jogn... something about the solo promo and an immediate boot in the next episode just doesn't fit right for me. But I really haven't thought about it much since last week... I need to do some more reading the next couple of days.

-SB

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forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings
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10-01-03, 10:51 AM (EST)
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15. "Add Lil to the list"
SNEWSER

>Not sure where to put this, but Snewser has a checkmark next to Episdode 3 that he has it right.

>He only has Ryan O, Rupert and Jon in his potential bootee section, with Jon on the top....

This certainly means that Snewser knows. However, even if he knows and does not update his scorecard, we still need to add Lil (and maybe Trish) to the list of boot candidates. Snewser has mentioned that an early boot (an older woman) returns to the game and ends up in the final 2.

THIRD BOOT MALE?

VerucaSalt has pointed out elsewhere that the third boot does not have to be male as we initially thought (language/translation issue).

IF MORGAN GOES TO TC

Parsimony: if Morgan goes to TC, clearly Lil is the obvious boot.

All of CBS's misdirection may exactly be that: misdirection.

YET THIS EP3 TITLE

Problem/question: is the ep3 title "United we stand, divided we ...." misdirection as well or does it mean Drake fills in the four dots with "v o t e" ? We know almost nothing about the IC. Maybe Drake gets disqualified somehow? How else could Morgan win the IC?

SUMMARY

If it weren't for the ep3 title, Lil would be the logical candidate. If somehow Drake goes to TC good points have been made for and against Rupert, Jon, and Sandra (she is safe though see Snewser's chirp). SB and AyaK have pointed out it's too soon for Rupert. There also does not seem to be enough time in ep3 for us to start rooting for Jon, especially after blowing up against Sandra.

Maybe given that it's hard to figure out who would go on Drake, it could be as simple as Lil gets booted to return later.

forehead

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10-01-03, 11:03 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
I also noticed that Snewser's grid started out with slots for all 13 episodes, but he edited it so it stops at Ep 4 now. Wonder what that means.


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10-01-03, 02:18 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
I think that's just for the episodes for which there is a title available.
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10-01-03, 02:15 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
Hey this is my first post so be nice please
I've been reading a few different threads about the BL and came to the realization that it might involve Jon, but in a different way than has been expressed so far. What if somebody lied *ABOUT* Jon to get him booted because they thought that they were targeted for some reason (ie. someone else loses the spear and creates a lie about Jon). As a stretch, he could even be the one returning (even though some of the spoilers don't point to that) which could bring about regret. Plus if he was booted unfairly, it may cause us to view him 'in a different light', as Jiffy seemed to be able to do. Just another perspective.
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10-01-03, 02:42 AM (EST)
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8. "thanks!"
great job summarizing.

FWIW, I don't think Osten is the liar. Just seems so totally pointless to say "I'm weeeeeeak!" in a group setting where every member is needed for the good of the tribe, yet nobody there acts like they feel comradrie for each other. Saying "I'm sick" would make disjointed tribe members say "okay, then you're useless." Then again, this tribe is pretty hella stupid, so maybe not.

I reiterate that if that was *IT* in its entirety (the Big Lie) I'm so not watching next season.


- knows she's fullait and will still be watching next season

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10-01-03, 08:08 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
Wow, That was a great SOTS...I've been trying to keep up all week but I can see I got a lot to read before tomorrow night.

Someone mentioned something about the BL possibly being inflicted on Jon. That would definitely make for an interesting twist.



A 2003 RolldDice Original

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10-01-03, 01:01 PM (EST)
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22. "Sorry...OT"
Hey! Are you a student at Clemson? I am! Didn't know there was another Tiger on here!

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10-01-03, 08:14 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
Thanks for the summary!!!

I'm usre it takes a great deal of patience to get through all our wild hypothesis's.



Bovinated- An Original Draco Masterpiece

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10-01-03, 09:07 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
Don't forget that MB edited out Trish's unsuccessful swim at Ep. 2 RC.

After Burton is shown going into the water a second time, there is a shot of the Drake tribe-Christa (who has miraculously recovered), Michelle, Jon, Shawn, Rupert and . . . what appears to be a wet Trish walking in the background, head down.

There's a cut back to Burton, and then Ryan O is shown running toward his tribe, with the Drake tribe in the background. Who's shown? Jon, Shawn, Burton (oops--he should be in the water), Rupert, Michelle and Christa, in the background. So where's Trish? Also note Jon has his hands on his head, apparently concerned over what's occurring.

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10-01-03, 02:37 PM (EST)
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27. "Interesting"
Really? I will watch the tape again tonight. This would have implications on how Trish is perceived by her tribemates, and also the Morgan person who went in after Rhino would have been frolicking around in the water a lot longer than was shown, too.
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10-01-03, 03:52 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
Hmmm. Someplace in one of Ryan's interviews he says that Ryan O also dropped behind by two Drake people while struggling also.


-diligently going to reread interviews again to link....

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10-01-03, 11:39 PM (EST)
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31. "You're right!"
I just watched and re-watched the tape of the RC and you are absolutely right, wastingtime! Good catch!

How weird to see Burton on the beach watching himself in the water!

When Christa comes ashore, Burton is clearly helping Trish prepare for her jaunt, putting one hand on Trish's back while reaching for the goggles with the other. When Burton (really Trish) is in the water, he is also standing on the beach watching Rhino come out of the water. Lil then dives in. When she comes back, after all Drakes are underwater retrieving the treasure chest, Android jumps in. He comes out of the water at the same time as the Drakes drag the chest to the beach.

Two things can be surmised here:

1. Trish definitely blew the challenge, and even though Drake won, you can bet her tribemates have stored that event in memory in case a TC should come up. It made their decision easier. This hidden little tidbit will definitely affect the tribe's opinion of Trish.

2. Lil DID NOT ace this challenge as the episode would have you believe. She went into the water when Trish was out there screwing up, she was out there the whole time it took for Trish to come back ashore and for Burton to go out, get the last item, and come back, and for all Drakes to head back out to sea to start dragging the chest back. Only then did Lil finally rise out of the water.

Actually, there's a third thing: MB is EVIL!!

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10-01-03, 09:26 AM (EST)
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12. "Thanks so much"
for putting this all together. It makes it so much easier to figure out what's out there.

j.

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10-01-03, 10:16 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
Good work, strid!

Damn, this week is confusing. We have nothing conclusive on who wins IC, so half the people in the game seem like potential targets, LOL. If Drake loses IC we have Jon, Rupert, Sandra and Shawn to choose from. If Morgan loses IC, Lill, Osten and Ryan O. could all be contenders.

Must review the situation some more before voting...


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14. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
Thanks Strid. I know how hard these are and you did a great job.


--is sticking to her story that Andrew gets the boot

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10-01-03, 10:52 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
I read somewhere that Burton and Michelle are rumored to get together. If this is true it means that he has some influence over her boot vote. Being Sean and Burton are the dynamic duo, Sean may suggest to Burton voting off Rupert (because of the little tirade about the spear). If Burton takes this to Michelle, she can influence the other girls? That could mean goodbye to “Blackbeard”.

URang

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19. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
LAST EDITED ON 10-01-03 AT 11:14 AM (EST)

--is sticking to her story that Andrew gets the boot

Really, Misto? Hmm -- I just reread Ryan's webchat and he keeps saying how everybody on the tribe just blindly followed Andrew's lead. It sounds like something that's going to go on for awhile. It convinced me that if Morgan goes to TC next, Lill's gonna be gone.


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20. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
I just reread Ryan's webchat and he keeps saying how everybody on the tribe just blindly followed Andrew's lead.

I know BR, there's so many things and reason why Andrew isn't someone we should be looking at, but there's something inside that tells me it's him. The Morgans (if they lose which I believe they will) HAVE to see that Andrew is the reason why they're losing.

Don't they?


--is reserving her actual vote until tomorrow morning to see if there's something today that will change her mind

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28. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
I'm with you, Misto, on the Andrew boot and the "something inside" thing. There's just a whole lotta little things adding up to Android leaving tomorrow.

I hope we're right. I like being right.

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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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10-01-03, 11:07 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
I am waffling about this week. But I do remember Nicole mentioned that her opinion of Rupert changed when she heard him talk. It sounded like she got to know him. But she didn't mention any other Drake members. So I am leaning towards Rupert at this time. Give Rupert time to meet Nicole at loser island.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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10-01-03, 12:04 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
But she didn't mention any other Drake members.

After Nicole said that Rupert sounded like a sweetheart in response to a question about him, she added, with no prompting, "I didn't get to know anybody on the island very well least of all people from Drake."

I think Nicole was checking herself before she mentioned anyone else at all. So while it does sound like she got to know Rupert, I don't think we should assume that she didn't get to know anyone else from Drake at LL.


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RudyRules 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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10-01-03, 01:54 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
Just a thought here.. regarding the title..."United We stand, divided we...." Maybe "tie"
A tie vote between Rupert and Jon, showing the Drakes tribe as being evenly "divided." Then the question becomes how is a tie decided this season?


"Them people had to be pretty dumb to make their camp in a riverbed" - Rudy Boesch

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cqvenus 9765 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

10-01-03, 02:13 PM (EST)
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24. "I say they both go"
if there's a tie, I think they should both go, since they both got the most votes. but that's just me. it sure would be a kick in the ass to a tribe to accidentally vote out 2 ppl at once b/c of a tie. they'd definitely have to be more communicative about their voting strategies if they want to keep tribe members around. it could be interesting.


- what do i know? i wanted rob to win S6.

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"

10-01-03, 02:18 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: State of the Spoiling, Episode Three"
Thanks Strid: I'm traveling this week and don't have much internet access...your Sots is terriffic! Great summary of the information as well as commentary. Your hard work is appreciated!


Krautboy

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DoodleBug 5133 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

10-01-03, 03:47 PM (EST)
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29. "Great Job!"
What a tough, tough week!! Strid, you did a great job pulling all of this together.

I can't decide.... I think Morgan WILL win something, but it's hard to know what. I'm leaning toward the RC. I think Morgan will go back to TC again.

My hubby doesn't pay any attention to spoilers, so I ask him for his prospective. He thinks Jon is getting booted. So that makes me think Jon is safe. So then who?

Will we have mutiny and Andrew gets the ol' heave ho?
Will our odd-man-out-underdog Lillian get her torch snuffed?


I need to do some more reading

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buckeyegirl 5449 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-03, 03:00 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Great Job!"
Great job on all of the links! I found it all the way on page 2, and it's not even Monday yet, so here's a bump to help stop the duplicate threads that seem to keep popping up.




A Kyngsladye Original
~hopes I can do just as good as job when it's my turn to do this.

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strid333 2928 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"

10-04-03, 03:23 PM (EST)
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33. "Thanks for the compliments"
Thanks everybody for the compliments. It was fun to write and I wouldn't mind doing another.


Three is the perfect number.

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