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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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I'll make this short... for a nice detailed summary see the below copy of Krautboy's excellent (complete with video!) summary of this week's predictions.

Drake seems to win the Reward Challenge, and the rich get richer. Rupert gets upset about the spear. Perhaps his reaction begins to undermine his position and leads to his speculated soon-to-be booting. Drake also manages to win the Immunity Challenge. Morgan goes to Tribal Council and Andrew finishes twisting the knife he stuck in Ryan S.'s back last week and Ryan is voted out. On the slim chance we're all completely off base, Jon seems as likely an alternate as anyone else.

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Krautboy's Episode 2

Last week Andrew was selected to be leader of the Morgan tribe.
After his tribe lost the Immunity Challenge, he took the lead role and made the argument for booting either Lillian or Ryan S. at Tribal council…

Nicole made a tactical error and entered into conflict with Tijuana…


...for which she paid at Tribal Council...

When questioned by JP, Andrew emerged as the villan of Morgan, when he accused Ryan S. of not carrying his share of the load. He basically blamed Ryan for losing the IC. It was clear that Ryan was on the wrong side of the tribe leader.

The TC voting made it apparent that Ryan S. was the primary target until Nicole volunteered to put her head on the chopping block...

Tribal Council voting excerpts from Survivor Insider Episode 1 Yahoo Platinum...(Thanks to Markopolo)

Ryan S. (votes Nichole): "My vote is for Nicole. Outstanding person. I hope you let your childish and petty arguments keep you around for another little bit."

Nicole (votes Ryan S.): "Ryan I am voting for you only because my alliance fell through and you're the only one that I heard other people could be voting for, so....that's my vote."

It's clear that Ryan was not made privy to the voting strategy against Nicole. From his comments, he expected to be voted out before Nicole. In addition, Nicole voted for Ryan because he was the only person she new to be targeted besides herself. Neither comment bodes well for Ryan the next time Morgan goes to TC.

Episode 2 will start out with the traditional Reward Challenge, as the two tribes arrive and take their places on the their mats...

The contestants are dressed for a water based challenge, with the exception of Sandra, who is wearing her peach pantsuit outfit and hat...she was given the least physical job of torch bearer last challenge and will most likely be designated to sit out this challenge. (Notice that Jon does not wear his dark shirt or buff on his head for the RC, and Burton is not wearing his long sleeved blue shirt.)

Morgan is at the disadvantage because Osten is a poor swimmer. And as JP describes what they will have to do, Andrew may realize it...

This may very well be when the "near drowning" we have read about
occurs...

Christa diving during the RC. Shawn (surfer build and black shorts) and Christa retrieving the treasure chest.

Drake wins the RC and the Drake must select someone to represent them...

Rupert beomes “Blackbeard” the pirate to the Morgan Tribe, when he is selected to pillage their camp...

Tijuana, dressed in same clothes as for RC arrival, looks on in disgust as Rupert pillages their camp. Notice the tip of the boat (on the left) pulled up on the beach waiting to take Drake’s designated “pirate” back to his camp.

"Jeff Probst: Next time on Survivor... At Drake, life is good until Shawn causes Rupert to lose his cool.
Life is good because Drake just won another challenge...

While Rupert is away pillaging the Morgan camp, Sean decides to go spear fishing and loses the spear tip. When Rupert returns...

Rupert: "That's why I wanted to be the only one to... who did that."
Rupert yelling'

“Rupert, Drake tribe's "Blackbeard," goes into a rage after learning that a tribemate has lost something crucial to Drake's survival, but is determined to recover it at all costs. “

After several hours of searching Rupert finally finds the missing spear tip and lets out a victorious roar...

Rupert had decided to be the "provider" and took posession of the fishing responsibilities in EP1. Rupert wanted to be the only one to use the fishing spear and was upset when he found out someone else had used it. He didn't know who had used it, because he asked "Who did that?" referring to the broken fishing spear.

Drake camp is a small place and tribemates do most everything together. Where was Rupert that he he would be gone long enough for Shawn to go fishing, break (or lose) part of the spear, and come back to camp before Rupert even knew he had done it? Pillaging the Morgan camp...

Meanwhile back at the Morgan camp after another rough night’s sleep, a RC loss and perhaps a “near drowning”…

”A tribe is stunned when one Survivor confesses a desire to quit the game.”
“The harsh conditions on the island make one tribe member ready to quit.”
”JP: …a member of the Morgan tribe wants to quit.”

Osten having a hard time with the "harsh conditions"...gets whiny.

Andrew: We don't need people just walking going "I just want to go home. It's a real morale killer for the tribe".

Andrew confronts Osten about his “I just wanna go home” attitude.

This is the red herring used to direct the viewing audience away from what is an obvious boot to the spoiling community. Osten of course, does not quit, and in the end votes together with Andrew and the current voting block…of which Ryan is not part.

Day 6 arrives, as does the second Immunity Challenge…
”It's a desperate battle of mind and body for Immunity, where every last second will decide the winner in a photo finish you must see to believe.”

Drake arrives for the EP2 IC with Christa holding the II. Sandra is not wearing her peach top or hat, since she sat out the RC, she is now dressed to compete. Christa appears to be designated to sit out the IC, dressed to observe and wearing her sun hat. Her contribution is carrying the Idol to the challenge…

The rope pull IC. The Idol next to JP as the challenge begins. Shawn and Burton (wearing his long sleeve blue shirt) pulling for Drake. Tijuana not wearing her tube top as she did for the RC.

The IC appears to also include a water element…

If they lose, they pay the heavy price of a trip to TC…

This angle of the IC shows Jon in the upper left corner of the image wearing his dark shirt and shorts and what appears to be his blue buff on his head.

Jon, wearing his dark shirt and blue buff, celebrates the IC victory with Burton (wearing his long sleeve blue shirt)…after winning in a “photo finish”

Lillian disappointed after another IC defeat. Notice Ryan in the background, with shirt matching IC rope pull shots…Ryan looking dejected after the IC…Andrew tired and defeated.

Morgan goes to Tribal council again…

The credibility of the information we have from SNN increased last week when Nicole was voted off, as predicted by reports from Panama…

8/15/03 From SNN: Panama Front Redux
"Even sketchier is our information about the first two booted. Well, they may or may not actually be the first two booted afterall. The best we can estimate is that it happened sometime in the first two weeks. But there is good evidence to suggest they were at least booted in a particular chronological order.
First of said pair was described as a youngish athletic woman, about 5'6", with short ash or platinum blonde hair. Second of the two was a young, tall, skinny guy, who looked younger than the girl, but very unhealthy."

Ryan looking tall, skinny, and unhealthy...

9/3/03 From SNN: The Accidental Tourist
"Reports to date have helped us identify ousted players. The first to arrive at the Ponderosa is most likely Nicole. She was followed by a tall, skinny male. Our sources weren't sure whether this male was Ryan Shoulders or not. The third arrival is also male. Our information on the early non jury boots also includes an older woman."

Ryan is the only “tall, skinny,unhealthy guy on the Morgan Tribe...

Ryan is the “second person voted out of the tribe”…

Krautboy