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"What leads to Nicole's Demise?"
Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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09-10-03, 03:22 AM (EST)
 
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"What leads to Nicole's Demise?" |
This season we have three different “ChillOne” style spoilers to consider. The SNN Reports (“Panama Front Redux”, and “The Accidental Tourist), The PanamaVacation Spoiler, and the Wezzie and QuartzEye Reports. All three seem to corroborate one another, although only two of them provide clues about the first boot...
8/15/03 From SNN: Panama Front Redux
"Even sketchier is our information about the first two booted. Well, they may or may not actually be the first two booted afterall. The best we can estimate is that it happened sometime in the first two weeks. But there is good evidence to suggest they were at least booted in a particular chronological order. First of said pair was described as a youngish athletic woman, about 5'6", with short ash or platinum blonde hair.
Second of the two was a young, tall, skinny guy, who looked younger than the girl, but very unhealthy."
9/3/03 From SNN: The Accidental Tourist
"Reports to date have helped us identify ousted players. The first to arrive at the Ponderosa is most likely Nicole. She was followed by a tall, skinny male. Our sources weren't sure whether this male was Ryan Shoulders or not. The third arrival is also male. Our information on the early non jury boots also includes an older woman."
From a post at SS by Wezzie and QuartzEye: “Here's the lowdown on what we heard. Please edit your list to reflect this: We heard that a young woman goes first...we think it's Nicole.
We heard that the tribes live on Mogo Mogo and Gibraleon and that they merge on Mogo Mogo.
We heard that an older woman comes back into the game.
We heard that an older woman goes far in the game.
We heard that Shawn and Jon are the last people to leave Isla Contadora on a plane. (Their photos were pointed at.)
We heard that 'a woman with a man's name' and 'a black person' do well in the game.” Vidcap evidence clearly points to a the Morgan Tribe going to TC…
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4020.shtml If “a young woman goes first” and she’s from the Morgan Tribe, the EP1 boot is narrowed down to Tijuana, Darrah or Nicole. We know from the Bebekid Spoiler that Darrah is safe…
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=4009&forum=DCForumID2&omm=0 The SNN description of the “youngish athletic woman” and the Accidental Tourist tip clearly points us to Nicole. But the question remains, what are the dynamics of the game that lead to Nicole’s demise? Looking at the promo vidcaps may provide some clues….
Day 1: Arrival
Nicole obviously had a strategy that involved a skin-tight blue dress and a luxury item of massage oils. Her plan back fired when she was forced abandon ship with just the clothes on her back...    
Notice that Nicole is always pictured in close proximity to Darrah. Nicole seems to have latched on to Darrah, who probably has the nicer personality, the one everyone gets along with.
 
Without Darrah around Nicole appears to be a bit of an outsider...
Day 2: Camp Life:
  
Nicole continues to depend on Darrah and is again always pictured next to her. In the third image Nicole and Tijuana seem to be having some kind of conflict, as Darrah begins to distance herself from Nicole...
Day 3: Preparing for TC
  
After losing Immunity to the Drake tribe the tension rises and the Morgan tribe starts to play the game. Nicole is pictured talking privately to Darrah, who must now further distance herself from Nicole. Nicole has probably been targeted by Tijuana after their conflict.
As VerucSalt pointed out, The TV Guide Preview mentioned that "tempers flare at Morgan about loyalty"...apparently Darrah's loyalties will shift away from Nicole, causing Nicole's temper to flare as pictured above.
Last season we saw the demise of young Ryan, who thought he had the game by the tail. His strategy of charming the girls backfired, much like Nicole's appears to in S7.
Ryan made the mistake of latching on to Daniel, only to become an outcast to the rest of the tribe, in much the same way Nicole appears to be aligning herself with Darrah at the exclusion of the others. In the end Ryan scrambled around looking for "loyalty" only to find he was too late. It appears Nicole will have the same problem...
Krautboy
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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09-10-03, 07:14 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: What leads to Nicole's Demise?" |
Thanks for neatly tying everything together, Krautboy... I can't argue with any of the points you've presented so far as it's all coming together logically.It's just gnawing at me that it seems a little too easy, although I know we've been given easy first boots before. BTW... welcome back, K-boy! Hope it was a great summer...
Click here to rank all 96 Survivors!
 
Heidi: My biggest assets to the tribe are my athletic skills and my intelligence. I've lost one of them.
Jiffy: Which one?
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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09-10-03, 11:11 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: What leads to Nicole's Demise?" |
'a woman with a man's name' and 'a black person'Well, the black person is either Osten or Tijuana. If it's Osten, Tijuana would likely be identified as black also, so she wouldn't be the woman mentioned. And if Tijuana is the black person, someone else is the woman. (But I think "person" would be more likely be substituted for "man", so I'd say the black person is Osten.) I think "woman with a man's name" best fits Darrah. Darrah is an unusual name and might have sounded more masculine (like Darrell, e.g.) to the locals. Michelle is a common woman's name and wouldn't be regarded as a man's name -- same with Christa/Chris, imo. Nice job on the caps, Krautboy! 
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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09-10-03, 12:43 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: What leads to Nicole's Demise?" |
KB, just wanted to add this challenge cap to your brilliant analysis:
Nicole has only one hand placed, rather awkwardly, on the cart while everyone else around the cannon is pushing hard with both hands and their bodies. Even anorexic Ryan is busting his butt to pull the cannon. If Nicole proceeds noticeably through the challenge this way, her tribemates will have no reason to think she'll be an asset strengthwise. Her challenge performance could, in part, lead to the tension with Tijuana later.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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09-10-03, 01:22 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: What leads to Nicole's Demise?" |
Hi BR! I haven't had a chance to say hello yet. Took me a whiile to catch up on all my reading...You've done a great job leading the preseason spoiling assault on MB...Sharp observation (as usual) about Nicole's performance in the challenge... Looks like we've got EP1 pretty well wrapped up, but it would be nice to get some vidcaps from EP2 so that we can find a "Where's Nicole?" picture to confirm...
Krautboy
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erikman 324 desperate attention whore postings
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09-10-03, 04:31 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: What leads to Nicole's Demise?" |
yep that 1 hand on the canon is the last nail in her coffen
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SaphireLady 2491 desperate attention whore postings
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09-10-03, 07:30 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: What leads to Nicole's Demise?" |
Everyone is talking about the one hand on the cannon. Frankly I want the X removed. Yep that's me, dirty girl
"Do you know, I always thought unicorns were fabulous monsters, too? I never saw one alive before!" "Well, now that we have seen each other," said the unicorn, "if you'll believe in me, I'll believe in you." Lewis Carroll; Through the Looking Glass
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erikman 324 desperate attention whore postings
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09-11-03, 06:35 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: What leads to Nicole's Demise?" |
lazy one won last season so lazy is 1st voted out this season
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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09-12-03, 09:28 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: What leads to Nicole's Demise?" |
Pretty much copying my other post prior to this thread being done, this is why Nicole could be firstFocusing on the women besides Nicole: Tijuana has a potential connection with Osten due to race. Lillian (while a candidate just due to the eldest thing) is no doubt gonna work her butt off and probably do the "mom" thing and along with her Scout skills may be considered a welcome non threatening cooperative presence.
That comes down to the closest in types of Darrah and Nicole in terms of age, physicial, race, etc. Darrah is being spoiled as someone who goes further in game so with those rumors and rumors of Nicole, Nicole would be more likely to go just based on that. With respect to the men going, Ryan, Ryan, Osten and Andrew.... Andrew "appears" to be the leader. While this could work against him a la John in Thailand, I don't think this will be the case. My reason for this is simply I don't see a Brian out there and I believe that from day one Brian managed to call the shots whether anyone thought it or not. Too many leaders cause a problem and even thought I don't know these people, I don't see a situation like we did with a multitude of "A" personalities trying to lead like Clays, Brians, GDiva's, Helens. I think these people will allow a leader for now but this is all my opinion. Then you have Osten and not skinny Ryan. Two strong males, one male attractive no doubt to some of the young women, an asset to win as a tribe and Osten who has a commonality with Tijuana, obviously a good looking, strong guy to help too. Leading to skinny Ryan who is also a potential boot candidate based on what we heard. Personality wise, we don't know much except for what we are "supposing" due to looking at them and I already made it known what my thoughts are on someone who shows up to a press conference in that dress (rowr rowr) As a female contestant, believe it or not, I'd probably be more inclined to go and vote off a female even though I could try for an all female alliance but this early on, I want the tribe to just win and as a male I would also boot a female first unless there is a male so lazy or so obnoxious with no help in any other area. So in terms of why, why not? Except for Lillian, all of them "appear" to be very athletic and if Nicole is complaining with that puss face of hers, I'd lose her over Lillian the trying hard mom
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Mrs Burnett 13 desperate attention whore postings
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09-15-03, 11:01 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: What leads to Nicole's Demise?" |
BR... just wondering if the reason that Nicole only has one hand on cannon is that the torch is in the other hand. I can't tell what contribution Lillian is making either - possibly she has the torch. I noticed that in other caps of Drake, Sandra is holding torch and not helping pull the cannon. Any ideas?
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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09-15-03, 11:20 PM (EST)
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27. "Who's holding the torch?" |
LAST EDITED ON 09-15-03 AT 11:30 PM (EST)Hi Mrs. Burnett! So nice of your hubby to let you come visit us here at SBlows. You were always so insightful over at Phoenix, I hope you visit often! I was thinking that Lillian is the one holding the torch for Morgan at this point in the challenge, but it also appears to be a very long difficult challenge. I would think that the best strategy would be for the tribemembers to take turns as torch bearer. Using the time carrying the torch to rest from the more difficult work of pushing or pulling the cannon. It also seems that there are locations along the way where handing the torch from one person another in order to allow your team mate to manuever through an obstacle without risking the torch going out. Multiple torch bearers makes the most sense to me...
Krautboy
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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09-16-03, 10:34 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: What leads to Nicole's Demise?" |
LAST EDITED ON 09-16-03 AT 01:14 PM (EST)Mrs. B -- Like Krautboy, I think Lillian is Morgan's appointed torchbearer (that Scout uniform screams "mascot," after all  ), because, as you observe, she's not doing anything to help with the cannon. In the other challenge caps when they are in the undergrowth, you can see by the flame that Morgan's torchbearer is running alongside the tribe instead of out front, in the same general spot in the formation where Lill is here. It might make sense for them to pass the torch during the challenge but I have a feeling one person carries it the whole distance. ***Edited to add: WRONG -- Nicole is the torch bearer -- see Mistofleas and VerucaSalt posts below.
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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09-16-03, 11:30 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: What leads to Nicole's Demise?" |
Normally once someone is selected for something or not selected to participate, I haven't seen any interchange. Almost like you chose it, you deal with it. Lillian would appear the most reasonable choice and I would be really surprised if more than one person is carrying the torch especially since it appears someone else is holding a flag as well.
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mistofleas 8043 desperate attention whore postings
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09-16-03, 12:52 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: What leads to Nicole's Demise?" |
I agree with you Veruca that usually (note the use of the word usually to cover my butt in case someone comes up with a million examples that I'm wrong  ) when someone is picked for a task during a challenge they see it through to the end. Some observations:
 Above is the picture of the cannon pulling. I have put 2 circles on it (they're very small I'm sorry, perhaps you can use the circles for reference to the larger picture). The one in red show what I think might be the flame of the torch. It seems to me that because of the way the torch is placed that Nicole is holding the torch, that's why she is only using one hand to "kind of" push the cannon along. The circle in blue shows what I think to be Lillians hand on the rope helping Ryan pull the cannon. Ryan is closer to the camera and has his arm further back therefore we wouldn't be able to see his and hand on the rope but we can see Lillians. Now my thoughts are these: Lillian, if she were the torch bearer would not be put in such a power pulling position on the cannon. There is much more potential for falling and you wouldn't want to lose the pull strength of that position. Nicole holding the torch would make more sense. She's close to the front so she could run up and light the cannon quickly, but also not giving up a power pulling position on the cannon. She knows her main job is to make sure the torch stays lit so she, while wanting to help push, would keep most of her focus on staying upright. She's also not close enough to anyone else where she herself could trip or trip anyone else. So, Nicole is the torch bearer. But it doesn't matter, they lose the challenge anyway. Now why would they vote out Nicole? I think the this challenge in and of itself has little to do with it. I believe it's going to be more about personalities than strength for this one. 
--spoiling, speculating and spewing since 2001
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TeamJoisey 3558 desperate attention whore postings
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09-16-03, 10:50 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: What leads to Nicole's Demise?" |
Has anyone yet commented on the fact that the Morgan cannon is not on the cart? Perhaps that is what dooms Morgan. Maybe they can't get it back on correctly or it fails to fire, or they hit a bump and it falls?Seems kinda nuts to take the thing apart on purpose. It's heavy. That's why it has the frickin wheels. After zooming in on this pic, I can spot everyone except Nicole. She's got to be behind Lill. The torch is too far behind Lill's head for Lill to be the torchbearer.
Damn. Can't see Nicole's butt.
And she only gets one episode to flaunt it, too.
These reality show contestants need a reality check!
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jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings
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09-17-03, 11:27 AM (EST)
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48. "Is there any way" |
to get a vid cap thread for each challenge started?We have lots of vid caps and some great analyzing but I keep getting lost in different threads showing various caps. Good questions KB. How an earth would they get a cannon through that passage without going around the fence? 
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TeamJoisey 3558 desperate attention whore postings
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09-17-03, 01:49 PM (EST)
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49. "RE: What leads to Nicole's Demise?" |
LAST EDITED ON 09-17-03 AT 01:55 PM (EST)Thanks, KB. As usual, you have an answer. I guess they do have to take the damn thing apart, but I wonder why they are not using the cart in the pic above. I also wonder how tight a squeeze it will be to get the cart through that fence. I'm sure it fits, but not easily. I hope they don't have to lift it or take that apart too. This calls to mind a Jiffy radio show comment about the first challenge this season being the toughest physical challenge ever. It's over here in the quotes thread.
These reality show contestants need a reality check!
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AZ_Leo 3526 desperate attention whore postings
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09-17-03, 01:54 PM (EST)
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50. "RE: What leads to Nicole's Demise?" |
Maybe they have to go through this to get the cannon? And when they get to the cannon, maybe they have to put it together as part of the challenge? And one tribe doesn't put it together properly so it comes apart later?
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TeamJoisey 3558 desperate attention whore postings
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09-17-03, 07:15 PM (EST)
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54. "RE: What leads to Nicole's Demise?" |
OK, I blew that picture up til the pixels were the size of popcorn.I don't see the wheel there. I see a leg. oops. I do like the "assemble the cannon" theory. Guess we'll know soon.
These reality show contestants need a reality check!
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