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"Ordering theories"
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"

08-20-00, 02:24 PM (EST)
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"Ordering theories"
We have developed a few ordering theories for the final 4 based on listings of the survivors here over the last couple of weeks, and I'd like to have them all in one thread. A note of caution: to believe in one of these theories, you have to believe that someone wanted to plant a clue as to the final order.

CBS Theories:
Nine-shift Glossary Theory (revived by Me-Lissa):
The Glossary Theory was one of the first theories developed weeks ago. The listing of the survivors in the CBS Web site is decidedly non-random. It turned out that the Pagong tribe was listed in a paired sequence linked to their order of finish(7,8,5,6,3,4,1,2). The Tagi are listed in a sequence that may be a nine-shift sequence linked to their order of finish (7,6,x,x,x,x,5,8). If so, the Final Four will end up: KELLY (winner), SUSAN (2nd), RICHARD (3rd), RUDY (4th).

Opening Sequence Circle Theory (developed by Me-Lissa):
This theory compares the order of the introductions of Pagong in the opening credits to the order of Tagi in a circle method. A number of people have attempted to do this, but Me-Lissa found a method (look up her original post to see it:
http://www.survivorblows.com/survivorblows/boards/DCForumID2/342.shtml ). This sequence may not give us the answer, but Me-Lissa has a future as a cryptographer and my respect. If it is real, the Final Four will end up: RICHARD (winner), KELLY (2nd), SUSAN (3rd), RUDY (4th).

"Missing Three" Theory (best stated by tiara on ss.com):
This theory takes the infamous faked "final four" picture and assumes that it is an actual clue: it's the next four survivors to be booted. The "missing three" are the final three. Additionally, as first predicted by tiara, the left-to-right order of the survivors is also the order in which they will be booted. Thus, RUDY would go next, leaving a final 3 of KELLY, SUSAN, and RICHARD.

ACCESS HOLLYWOOD Theories:
For the last three weeks, the survivor profiled on Wednesday on "Access Hollywood" (an infotainment show owned by NBC) has been the survivor booted that night. NBC might be trying to rain on CBS's parade without violating any agreements on revealing the winner. Access Hollywood has profiled the 4 remaining survivors on Tuesdays, starting with Rudy 3 weeks ago and ending with Kelly on this coming Tuesday. Thus, assuming that the Tuesday profiles, like the Wednesday ones, are in order leaves:

"Straight" Access Hollywood Theory (developed by me):
KELLY (winner), SUSAN (2nd), RICHARD (3rd), RUDY (4th)

"Reverse" Access Hollywood Theory (developed by survivorman on ss.com):
RUDY (winner), RICHARD (2nd), SUSAN (3rd), KELLY (4th)

Also, a third possible order could be the order of the weekend profiles on Access Hollywood (posted by munson): RICHARD, SUSAN, KELLY, RUDY. Note, though, that this order (straight or reverse) does not match the Tuesday profile order. I have not made a separate theory out of this, but you may.

My last observation is that the Nine-Shift Glossary Theory and the "Straight" Access Hollywood Theory match exactly, with Kelly winning. The "Missing Three" Theory is consistent with both of them, as well as with the Opening Sequence Circle Theory (the only one in which Richard wins). The only theory in which Rudy wins (in fact, the only one in which Rudy isn't the next one off) is the "Reverse" Access Hollywood Theory. Susan does not win or finish 4th in any of them.

Give these theories whatever weight you want (if any), and please post any similar ordering theories on this thread. I'm going to start another thread (similar to ferretkiss' boot sheet) tomorrow with other types of clues.

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  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Ordering theories Rudyrox 08-20-00 1
   RE: Ordering theories AyatollahKhomeini 08-20-00 2
       RE: Ordering theories kimber 08-21-00 3

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Rudyrox 152 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"

08-20-00, 02:37 PM (EST)
Click to EMail Rudyrox Click to send private message to Rudyrox Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
1. "RE: Ordering theories"
There are only so many ways this can play out.. you can find a mathematical sequence for all of them.

So, IMHO, the person who gets this right I think will have done so by luck.. not by cracking some secret mathematical code.

JMHO

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"

08-20-00, 04:29 PM (EST)
Click to EMail AyatollahKhomeini Click to send private message to AyatollahKhomeini Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
2. "RE: Ordering theories"
Part of the luck (or judgment?) is deciding whether any of these theories make sense to you. Did someone really want to play a game with the answer? Only if you believe that is the case would you believe in one of these theories.

But you can't really find a mathematical sequence for every permutation that hasn't already been proven to be false. Also, the sequence would have to be common enough that someone would have used it. That's why I don't put much weight in the Opening Sequence Circle Theory.

On the other hand, since I have thought for a long time that the limited news story evidence indicates that Kelly wins and Susan comes in second, the fact that the Nine-Shift Glossary Theory, the "Straight" Access Hollywood Theory, and the "Missing Three" Theory are all consistent with that outcome and predict the same order of finish for the Final Four makes them seem more reliable to me than they otherwise would!

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kimber 2 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"

08-21-00, 03:47 PM (EST)
Click to EMail kimber Click to send private message to kimber Click to check IP address of the poster
3. "RE: Ordering theories"
I think that using the "Opening Sequence" is flawed in that the sequence was created before the outcome. Remember Kelly's date with Jeff? They watched the opening along with the first five minutes. This was before the winner was known.

We know that the winner was not chosen by CBS or Mark. Joel, in an interview, said that the producers were shocked that he was voted off because they had planned for him to be a finalist.

All that said... I have no idea who does win.

But my bet is on Kelly.

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