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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 05-09-03, 01:01 AM (EST) "Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" On the Next Survivor: It's down to the Final Four, and no one knows what to expect. The men are busy targeting Jenna, but she vows to turn things around. Meanwhile, Rob finds his anxieties at an all time-high. It's an action-packed season finale with surprises you'll be talking about the next day when two Immunity Challenges, two Tribal Councils, and one jury vote later, the winner of SURVIVOR: THE AMAZON will be revealed, live from NY. Then stay tuned to see all 16 Survivors reunite for the first time, on a special reunion broadcast, hosted by Jeff Probst! "The men are busy targeting Jenna", but since we know she makes the F2, there's a good chance she wins Immunity and forces Matt to decide between Butch and Rob...a decision foreshadowed by his revealing his F2 alliances with both Rob and Butch. Our biggest decision this week is deciding if Matthew selects Rob or Butch? We might conclude that since the editing has revealed the alliance between Rob and Matthew, but concealled the alliance between Butch and Matthew, the Matthew Butch alliance will succeed...once Jenna wins Immunity, Matthew may be forced to show his cards... Will Matthew stick with the player Rob, or take his more trustworthy fishing partner Butch? Krautboy   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? DataShark 05-09-03 1  RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? amyyou 05-09-03 2  RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? ejm92 05-09-03 3    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? DRONES 05-09-03 7        RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? Survivorerist 05-09-03 54    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? katethegreat 05-09-03 10    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? Thaibeach 05-09-03 15        RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? Brownroach 05-09-03 24  RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? LilNik8 05-09-03 4    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? JohnMc 05-09-03 31  RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? mtopaz 05-09-03 5    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? I_AM_HE 05-09-03 8  RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? IslandFever 05-09-03 6    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? Bebo 05-09-03 9        RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? pestilence 05-09-03 11            RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? cqvenus 05-09-03 18                RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? Cathy the Canadian 05-09-03 26        RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? snoocharoo 05-09-03 12            RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? Kucha_vivor 05-09-03 25            RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? katem 05-09-03 36                RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? snoocharoo 05-09-03 37                    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? katem 05-09-03 40  RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? wildchickenhunter 05-09-03 13  RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? Ms_Ultra 05-09-03 14  RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? samboohoo 05-09-03 16    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? Ms_Ultra 05-09-03 17    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? cqvenus 05-09-03 21    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? JohnMc 05-09-03 32  RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? AresMars 05-09-03 19  RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? Brownroach 05-09-03 20    Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is F3 bebekid 05-09-03 27        RE: Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is ... Brownroach 05-09-03 29            RE: Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is ... bebekid 05-09-03 34            RE: Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is ... Bebo 05-09-03 41                RE: Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is ... bebekid 05-09-03 43                    RE: Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is ... AZ_Leo 05-09-03 44                    RE: Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is ... tamarama 05-09-03 45                        RE: Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is ... mtopaz 05-09-03 49                RE: Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is ... Brownroach 05-09-03 48  RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? tamarama 05-09-03 22  RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? Loree 05-09-03 23    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? amylynne321 05-09-03 28  RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? DoodleBug 05-09-03 30  Jenna's Choice managerr 05-09-03 33    RE: IF Jenna's smart becca 05-09-03 39  RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? Jellybean 05-09-03 35  RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? AZ_Leo 05-09-03 38    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? Devious Weasel 05-09-03 42        RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? whoami 05-10-03 56    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? pestilence 05-09-03 53  RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? jsanb 05-09-03 46    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? Devious Weasel 05-09-03 47        RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? becca 05-09-03 50  RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? Outfrontgirl 05-09-03 51    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? becca 05-09-03 52    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? mavsfan 05-09-03 55    RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch? dabo 05-10-03 57        RE: Who goes first, second, third. VerucaSalt 05-10-03 58            RE: Who goes first, second, third. Spidey 05-10-03 59                RE: Who goes first, second, third. Round Robin 05-10-03 61    Celebrity Guest Appearance Krautboy 05-11-03 64        RE: Celebrity Guest Appearance Outfrontgirl 05-12-03 65  F4 IC = Maze with blindfolds ScurvyDogg 05-10-03 60    RE: F4 IC = Maze with blindfolds VerucaSalt 05-10-03 62    Rob taking notes for Fallen Comrade... bebekid 05-10-03 63

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DataShark 1395 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 05-09-03, 01:09 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" I think Matthew's confessional tonight where he describes his alliance with both Rob and Butch reveals both. Also his reaction to what the cause of the fire was foreshadows his future vote. Unless the alliance not shown is between Jenna and Matt I believe Matt will dump Butch first.   Top

amyyou 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-09-03, 01:19 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" Matt will pick Rob for the final two. He can easily beat him, and he is aligned with Rob. THe only worry I have is that Butch is doing an Under-the-Radar thing like Vee did. If he wins, it will be so unsatisfying!!!!   Top

ejm92 2221 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 05-09-03, 01:51 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" Warning: Incoherent, uneducated ramblings ahead...... Remember, we can supposedly throw the gambling/C1 spoilers out the window, or so say many of the posters here....so following that notion, it would make sense for Jenna to go first, Matt to win F3 immunity, and take Rob with him to the finals. BUT, this is Survivor, and nothing probable ever happens. Often, the person in danger of being voted out wins the F4 immunity (Kelly, Mamakim, Vee) and the weakest link of the alliance (Sue, Tom, Paschal - should've been Neleh) leaves. This would mean Butch goes first after Jenna wins F4 immunity. F3 immunity is usually the final nail in the coffin for one's hopes to win the game. However, Brian won and showed us that if you play a good enough game, the curse will spare you. In 3 out of 5 series, the immunity dominator has won the challenge. In the other two series, we had surprise immunity winners (Mamakim, Neleh) that both switched on what we would originally think (based on editing Mamakim bonded a little more with Lex, Neleh with Kathy). The F3 immunity winners that capitalized on the best chance of winning were Kelly, Neleh, and Brian. Maybe it's Survivor lore or just luck, but it seems to me that this season, whoever wins the F3 immunity is going to pick the wrong person and probably end up losing the game. If Matthew wins the game, things will be much too similar to last season, where one guy dominated most of the immunities, and won with a little help from a sidekick (Clay to Brian, Rob to Matt) that was easy to beat in the finals, and took the sidekick with him. Maybe it's a little Clay-backlash, but I think somehow Matt wins F3 immunity, takes Rob with him because of the bonds and promises that they have made, plus Rob looks like a promising final two opponent. Rob earns respect for his gameplay, and somehow beats the "unbeatable" Matt in the final two. Deena, Dave, Butch, and Christy all vote for Rob. None of these already booted Survivors showed a lot of antimosity towards Rob, and all seemed to respect his gameplay. If Butch gets dumped in the F4, he will obviously feel a bit hurt by Matt, and will logically vote for Rob. I don't know about the Mallrats, but I'm assuming they'll vote for Matthew and it'll be a 4-3 vote. It could be flip flopped with Matthew winning 4-3, but if Matt wins, it'll be the same as last season and will leave a dry taste in my mouth. With all of that put aside, I still believe somewhat in the premise of C1 and a little of the gambling. I think, somehow, Matt and Jenna end up F2, and Matthew is the probable winner...but what about all of the Rob hype? We're getting a little too much Rob hype for him to exit in the final four, or maybe even three. And what about Probst's comment about "Butch is a mentor, and one of these days a mentor is gonna win" quote? Also, remember that Matthew stated from the beginning that he had the game wrapped up, similar to Richard Hatch's famous quote. Maybe the Rob referrences to Richard Hatch is supposed to get us thinking about Matthew's quote and Rich's quote? What about the boy-girl winner pattern we have had? If the pattern is to continue, Jenna must win....my point is, we have a valid arguement for each Survivor as to why they should win. Maybe I'm a conspiracy theorist like Rob, lol. However, everything put aside, I think it'll be Matt taking home the prize...but in my opinion, it'd be too much like last season if he won. Survior 5 Anti-Bootee Champ, Survivor 6 Anti-Bootee Chump   Top

DRONES 615 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 05-09-03, 03:09 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" The only way I'd be disappointed in the outcome is if Butch wins. I hate the idea of another inVEEsible winner. Matt winning is nothing like Brian winning. He's had to come from behind and totally turn around the perseption of his character. He didn't have a clue how to play the game in the beginning to becoming the eventual winner, would be shocking. If not for C1 no one would have ever given a second thought to Matt winning. Brian, OTH, controlled the game from beginning to end.   Top

Survivorerist 4103 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 05-09-03, 11:28 PM (EST) 54. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" I agree with your point there, D. I read this post and thought along similar lines. Moreover, Brian had pretty much controlled the game early on, while Matt has very little control whatsoever. (Another IceCat original )   Top

katethegreat 207 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 05-09-03, 09:01 AM (EST) 10. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" "Remember, we can supposedly throw the gambling/C1 spoilers out the window, or so say many of the posters here" First, I haven't seen anything about throwing out the gambling spoilers. C1 has been shown wrong in its details, although generally close to the mark . . . but the gambling spoiler has not been disproven, to my knowledge. Second, my take on Matthew is that he is exactly what he appears to be - naive, trusting of Rob, amateur player, good guy. Given that, I believe Butch goes next - either Jenna wins immunity, OR Rob just convinces Matt to dump Butch based on anything Rob wants, he can spin a tale all day long. Then, Jenna would HAVE to win the final immunity to make it to the final two. I believe Matt - that he would take Rob with him, if he won. Since I think Matt and Jenna ARE the final two, the only way I see that happening is for Jenna to win and take Matt. Maybe she chooses Matt because she really does believe that Rob has a lot of respect from the jury. See Markopolo's Insider videos. Or maybe just because she can't stand Rob, and is still mad at him, or he gets her mad again, in the days to come. I think Matt will beat Jenna in the final vote. My only reservation is Jeffy's quote (in another thread) that the questions and answers part do decide some votes. But maybe that's just hype - right now, I think it will be Matt, 5 votes, Jenna - 2.   Top

Thaibeach 872 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 05-09-03, 09:40 AM (EST) 15. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" ejm, your post was hardly "incoherent"! you made several good points. I do have a couple of comments though: >If Matthew wins the game, things will be much too similar to last season, where one guy dominated most of the immunities, and won with a little help from a sidekick (Clay to Brian, Rob to Matt) that was easy to beat in the finals, and took the sidekick with him. A number of people have commented on Matt's having been on an immunity run. But last night's IC was only his second individual win. Jenna (unbelievably) has also won IC twice - so Matt's not a standout there...yet. I tend to go with those who think Jenna will win one IC (only if Final Comrades-type; if it's physical/endurance, I doubt she could win) and Matt, the other. Obviously, the order of IC winners will determine the final outcome of the game. If Matt wins the next IC, perhaps I'll get my fondest wish and they'll boot Jenna. (**** ChillOne!) Rob would like to keep her because she's such a b!tch, and whoever is against her in F2 is likely to get more votes. But I suspect Matt might feel more loyalty to Butch - not to the extent of taking him to F2, but would keep B over Jenna, whom he does not like and thinks does not deserve to be there. >And what about Probst's comment about "Butch is a mentor, and one of these days a mentor is gonna win" quote? Hasn't Rob also been a mentor? He's helped Matt to get his act together and really play the game. Butch on the other hand may be a mentor at home, but sheesh. As many have pointed out, Butch is like Jan reincarnated. Inertia has been a wonderful thing for Butch. He does work hard, but is so dull that people hardly notice him. Even when they do, and consider voting him off, there's always a better target around and he hangs on. I would be happy to see either Rob or Matt win. Have to admit I couldn't stand Rob but as the game winds down, you can't help but admire his game. Sure he's ruthless, a liar, a manipulator - but he's a master game player. And formerly-clueless Matt is right up there with him.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-03, 01:01 PM (EST) 24. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" "Butch is a mentor, and one of these days a mentor is gonna win" Just to clear this up, since it seems to be misquoted a lot: Jeff Probst said this about Roger, not Butch (as unlikely as that might seem).   Top

LilNik8 195 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 05-09-03, 01:56 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" > >Our biggest decision this week is >deciding if Matthew selects Rob >or Butch? > I really think he will take Rob. I know that both alliances were revealed tonight, but I believe that Matt obviously has a stronger alliance with Rob and that showed by telling him beforehand that he would go on any double reward and talking about their bond as they grubbed on those huge hamburgers. Also, Butch was left out in the Christy vote. I don't think the Matt-Butch bond is very strong Here's some food for thought though... *Does Jenna have to win immunity next week? Rob has already said that he has the best chance to win against Jenna. So as long as Butch doesn't win immunity (which seems unlikely), he should be targeted. *Say Matt wins the F3 immunity challenge to guarantee him a spot in the final 2...WHY WOULD HE PICK JENNA? He has a better chance to win against Rob. *Say Jenna wins the F3 immunity challenge to guarantee her a spot in the final 2...WHY WOULD SHE TAKE MATT? He may be creepy lookin and kinda weird, but he's NICE. He let everyone see their family members and he really wanted to share tonight's reward with everyone. Plus he's a hard worker...she has a better chance to win against Rob. *Now what if pigs fly and Old Butch wins immunity? Do Matt and Butch flip on Rob and vote him out with Jenna? Or does Rob hook up with Jenna...Matt and Butch vote for Jenna and Rob and Jenna vote for Matt...ol rock trick, Jenna goes and all the spoilers are wrong? (Mind you this is HIGHLY UNLIKELY) Just speculation and stuff to think about. Nicole Go Heels   Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 05-09-03, 02:34 PM (EST) 31. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" *Does Jenna have to win immunity next week? Rob has already said that he has the best chance to win against Jenna. So as long as Butch doesn't win immunity (which seems unlikely), he should be targeted. Not necessarily, but did MamaKim have a chance for immunity of a challenge whore like Lex? *Say Matt wins the F3 immunity challenge to guarantee him a spot in the final 2...WHY WOULD HE PICK JENNA? He has a better chance to win against Rob. I don't think Matt would pick Jenna. He wanted to pick someone worthy, which, in Matt's eyes, is Rob over anyone left of the F5. *Say Jenna wins the F3 immunity challenge to guarantee her a spot in the final 2...WHY WOULD SHE TAKE MATT? He may be creepy lookin and kinda weird, but he's NICE. He let everyone see their family members and he really wanted to share tonight's reward with everyone. Plus he's a hard worker...she has a better chance to win against Rob. Even if J/H made up w/Rob, they still voted for him, and they don't want him to have a million dollars. *Now what if pigs fly and Old Butch wins immunity? Do Matt and Butch flip on Rob and vote him out with Jenna? Or does Rob hook up with Jenna...Matt and Butch vote for Jenna and Rob and Jenna vote for Matt...ol rock trick, Jenna goes and all the spoilers are wrong? (Mind you this is HIGHLY UNLIKELY) Butch has always stayed with his alliances, even though he was often out of the loop (see Roger's and Christy's boot). He would take either of the guys over Jenna.   Top

mtopaz 2167 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 05-09-03, 02:40 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" We know that Rob wants to be sitting across from Jenna at final 2. Possibly Matthew is thinking the same thing, but I don't think he would stab Rob in the back to get there. If Jenna wins immunity: I think Matthew would prefer to vote Butch out over Rob, because a) he feels a stronger alliance with Rob; b) he feels that Butch's stockpiling of wood contributed to the fire; and c) Matt seems to be a fair person and in his mind, Rob deserves to stay more than Butch does. I think Rob would prefer Matt to be gone, but will he be able to get both Jenna and Butch to go along with that? Butch probably yes, but will Jenna get back into the game and be focused on having Rob as her final 2 partner, or will she be distraught and angry, and work hard to convince the other two to vote out Rob? I think it's possible that Matt wins immunity yet again, but because both he and Rob are now aiming for sitting across from Jenna at final two, they agree to vote out Butch next and Jenna goes along. 3 to 1, Butch is voted out next. Mmmm Topaz   Top

I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-03, 03:41 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" I agree, and think Matt has to win immunity or else Rob would target him, and Jenna would probably go for that (and so might Butch). If Jenna wins immunity, I think she'd target Matt or Rob before Butch (Matt because he's a threat, and Rob because she hates him) I wouldn't be greatly surprised to see a tie next episode, Rob/Jenna voting Matt (if not immune, Butch if), and Matt/Butch voting Rob (or Jenna if not immune) But, as I siad, Jenna really wants to beat ROB, so if she wins immunity, she could hold the cards for the vote, and convince Matt and Butch to go along with her Final Analysis: I don't know. But I agree with Krautboy, misdirection would indicate Jenna does NOT go in the first vote at least.   Top

IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 05-09-03, 02:54 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" I really think Matt takes Butch. This is the secret alliance that we haven't been shown. This is like Tina and Colby rather than Tina and Keith.   Top

Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-03, 08:42 AM (EST) 9. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" LAST EDITED ON 05-09-03 AT 08:42 AM (EST) I used to think that no one would want Butch in the F2 since he hadn't ticked anyone off. But now, I think he'd be an ideal final 2 partner. Not only hasn't he been involved in most of the real gameplay, his major contribution has been burning down the camp. At this point, I could see any of the other three beating him easily. edited because it's too early for grammar Bebo says...919 beats 205 - I am your American Idol and the Baroness of Babedom.   Top

pestilence 4 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-09-03, 09:09 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" If you believe the C1 F2, then Rob HAS to go now. How can you possibly get to Jenna and Matt in the Finals? Matt or Jenna would need to win the final IC. They would then pick their final opponent. If Matt wins and he had to choose between Jenna, Butch and/or Rob, he is is best off with Rob. Butch has the VeeVotes, Jenna has the girls. Meanwhile, Matt must know that Rob has been playing the game and leaving a wake of broken relationships all along the way. Therefore, if Rob is in the final three and Matt wins the final IC, then it would have to be Matt/Rob. If Jenna wins the last immunity, she also would be smart to bring Rob with her to the final vote. She knows that. Both Matt and Butch would be suicide for her. She would have Heidi's vote on the jury and that is it. So, if you buy the C1 finals of Matt and Jenna, Rob must go tonight, because if he was there in the final three, someone would drag him to the finals.   Top

cqvenus 9765 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-03, 11:06 AM (EST) 18. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" if jenna wins last immunity, she might take matt. if you read the yahoo platinum transcription, it seems like jenna is worried that a lot of the jury members have had time to realize how the game is supposed to go and respect rob for playing it out really well. she might take matt thinking she would definitely lose to rob because she's been kind of lazy towards the end and they love rob for his strategizing. ~ cq   Top

Cathy the Canadian 599 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 05-09-03, 01:23 PM (EST) 26. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" Not only that, but Jenna hated Rob enough to give Hiedi her immunity just to freak him out, putting herself in grave danger. She'd take Matt over Rob just to screw Rob, something she's been dying to do since he stabbed her in the back. Not as noble as Colby taking tina just so Kieth had no chance, but along the same lines.   Top

snoocharoo 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-09-03, 09:18 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" LAST EDITED ON 05-09-03 AT 09:25 AM (EST) Edited to add this: I've always had a hard time reconciling CO's spoiler, he gave us an incredible amount of information on the players but I just cannot take his word at face value. It's my nature no to trust anyone. My speculation below is based upon removing all CO and BoDogg spoiled info. Until I see Matt and Jenna in the F2 with my own eyes I'll be skeptical. I used to think that as well Bebo but last night I had a frightening thought. What if the "car curse" continues and Matt is voted out next because he is a PROVEN threat in IC. If the IC is Fallen Comrades I feel confident of Rob winning. Rob could make one final strike and send Matt packing. We'd be left with Jenna, Rob and Butch. If by some miracle Butch wins final immunity he takes Rob with him. He could take Jenna as well, the point is HE COULD BEAT BOTH OF THEM. There would be some on the jury who are respectful of Rob's game play and would vote for him, but Butch has screwed no one and I think in this game emotion takes a precedence over intellect and people vote from the heart...thus there is a chance that BUTCH could win the whole enchilada. We have a Vee situation with Butch...he's UTR, he's played the game fair and he's been on the fringes of his alleged alliances so he's never directly had to lie or backstab. We have had little spoiler info on him and he is an underdog in this game. The fire last night was circumstance, sure people are upset about it but ya know what, shiiit happens. Everyone knows that butch didn't intentionally start that fire, it was circumstance. Heidi saying "I don't want Butch to win" rang loudly in my mind. Matt is getting a bit prideful and confident and has revealed his strategy. Butch has not (maybe he doesn't have one). Fire = Life in Survivor. Maybe the fire was the biggest foreshadowing display to date. Random thoughts...pick em apart as you please.   Top

Kucha_vivor 4 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-09-03, 01:06 PM (EST) 25. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" Snooch, many of my thoughts exactly. I have believed Butch wins since about 5 episodes ago when his face time when to Zero. I also believe he has a game plan and that he is just good at hiding it because he has learned from the students he is with day in and day out. I like the fire as life idea and I would not put it past MB to have the crew help the fire along at the campsite. Nobody gets hurt but it affects the game tremendously. Also I think Butch has the best chance at Fallen comrades, not Rob. The quiet ones pick-up on the most about their surroundings and those in their surroundings. Good call. Butch Wins. Kucha_vivor   Top

katem 3315 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 05-09-03, 03:07 PM (EST) 36. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" >If the IC is Fallen >Comrades I feel confident of >Rob winning. Rob could make >one final strike and send >Matt packing. We'd be left >with Jenna, Rob and Butch. >If by some miracle Butch >wins final immunity he takes >Rob with him. He could >take Jenna as well, the >point is HE COULD BEAT >BOTH OF THEM. We know that the last IC is immediately followed by a vote, so the only possible IC, that I can imagine, that accomodates this scenario is Fallen Comrades. So IMHO, you still need to figure who goes first Snooch. Although Rob winning a Fallen Comrades type challenge is VERY plausible. >We have a Vee situation with >Butch...he's UTR, he's played the >game fair and he's been >on the fringes of his >alleged alliances so he's never >directly had to lie or >backstab. I keep hearing that Butch is this season's Vee. I disagree, the only real comparison you can make between the two, is that they were both UTR. But NEVER forget that Vecepia Towery was EVIL. She did a lot of stuff, betrayed a bunch of people to get to the end, she just did it all very quietly and in the shadow of Rob Mariano. AND, the reason she won, was because Neleh angered more jury members than Vee. So, could Butch win this sucker? Of course, if the jury was feeling vindictive and wanted to screw Matt, Rob or Jenna. Aside from that, I just don't see how could the jury explain voting for him. I think Jenna wins the first IC and Rob, convinced that Butch would win over all of them (a mistake IMHO), takes him out. Then it gets really sticky. Rob would be the favorite to win that last IC, if indeed it is Fallen Comrades. How does it go, not sure just yet, but I would NOT be surprised if Rob is your winner of Survivor: The Amazon.   Top

snoocharoo 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-09-03, 03:13 PM (EST) 37. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" Baaaaah!!!! You just think Rob's cuter... I agree with what you're sayin...just throwing logs on the proverbial fire.   Top

katem 3315 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 05-09-03, 04:04 PM (EST) 40. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" >Baaaaah!!!! You just think Rob's >cuter... Don't EVER insult me like that again. I'm reserved for Dave   Top

wildchickenhunter 3192 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 05-09-03, 09:18 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" I don't usually do a lot of spoiling, but I read the board regularly.....I am going to give you guys something to think about......All season everyone has said that Rob is the best player ever. There was an interview with Jiffy that was out here a couple of days ago where He repeatedly said that Rob was the best player he had ever seen..Is this foreshadowing. Are you sure we are not being told WHO the winner is. Here is the scenerio - Matt wins F4 IC and the three guys stick together and boot Jenna. Matt then wins F3 IC and then selects Rob to go to finals thinking everyone will hate Rob because he has lied. Instead Rob(the best player ever) pleads his case. He played the game to win. He actually pulls the votes of Christy, Dave, Denna,Alex and wins the Game.... I know this doesn't hold with ChillOne, but then when did WCH ever care about that!   Top

Ms_Ultra 16 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 05-09-03, 09:38 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" Jiffy always said the questions before the final are decisive to who wins. Imagine Matt and Rob in F2, the questioning would focus on the 'student/teacher' relationship they've had and which would be more deserving. This type of questioning would be far more interesting than any other F2 combo other than a Rob and Jenna final two (okay...Rob you've backstabbed everyone here why should we vote for you....Jenna you've done nothing at all to contribute to the tribe except take up space and eat food........I'd like to see them plea their cases!!!). I say Butch goes before Rob especially after the camp burning incident.   Top

samboohoo 17173 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-03, 10:02 AM (EST) 16. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" Another thought: Matt continues his immunity run for one more challenge. The three guys boot Jenna. Then Matt throws the final IC so that Rob or Butch have to decide who to take to the Final 2. Matt probably thinks either would take him, and that way he doesn't have to betray either of them.   Top

Ms_Ultra 16 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 05-09-03, 10:53 AM (EST) 17. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" I don't think Matt would just sit back this close to the end not do everything he could to ensure he's in F2. While he claims to not know how to play the game he, he's never once said he doesn't want to win or doesn't want the money. Matt's got to see himself as a contender in F2 and that Rob and Butch believe this as well. Even though Matt is telling Rob that Rob has a solid chance for winning we don't know if Matt really thinks this or is just stroking Rob to keep him off guard.   Top

cqvenus 9765 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-03, 11:11 AM (EST) 21. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" but if he sits back and lets that happen, it means he is overly confident that butch will take him to the final, and he's overly confident that rob won't just F him like he's Fd everyone else and say sorry matt, i'm taking butch. whoa. so many possibilities... ~ cq   Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 05-09-03, 02:36 PM (EST) 32. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" <<Matt continues his immunity run for one more challenge. The three guys boot Jenna. Then Matt throws the final IC so that Rob or Butch have to decide who to take to the Final 2.>> That is brilliant, Samboohoo. That is SO Richard Hatch. Only Rob could think of such a plan... or Rob's student...   Top

AresMars 283 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 05-09-03, 11:07 AM (EST) 19. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" LAST EDITED ON 05-09-03 AT 11:46 AM (EST) Here’s my take on a possible scenario on Sunday. Please note that this spec is in keeping with CO and the betting Spoilers Rob has been extremely good at keeping the multiple alliances he’s been in pared down to manageable levels. He did Christy last week since she wouldn’t commit and his alliance could spare her for the following weeks plan. Then he does Heidi, he wishes, last night breaking up their alliance. Now he has Matt’s solid vote against Jenna and his only real concern is that Butch might wake up to the fact that it would behoove him to join up with Jenna and force a tie at the next tribal council. Keeping in mind that I truly believe Rob wants to be sitting next to Jenna for the final 2 he is making decisions based on that plan. Now, based on these assumptions I make the following speculations. Butch doesn’t win immunity and I don’t believe it will matter who does. Rob will pressure Matt to dump Butch, he’s dead weight, burned down the camp, and wouldn’t own up to it. In Rob’s mind he no longer needs Butch because with Matt he can vote out Jenna at the next TC and he knows if sitting next to Butch he most likely will lose. Yes Butch burned down the camp but he had a one time accident where as Rob has alienated a lot of the jury. So it’s in Rob’s best interest to dump Butch now. After Butch retires to the jury this is where Jenna wins her third immunity. I spec this only ‘cause I see no other way that the CO and betting spoilers can come to pass. At TC last night when JP asked her what was her criteria was for who she would take to the final two she stated she would take someone she didn’t mind losing to, blatant foreshadowing. Now I know these are not exact quotes but this is the gist of what she said. With that in mind who would she more likely take to the Final 2? Rob? No way, No how, Not gonna happen. Or Matt? The guy who thought he was sacrificing a visit from his mom so that she could see her Dad? The guy who never really lied to her or betrayed her? Yep, he’s going with her. Now the final vote I’ll save for another thread but I think Matt will walk away with the cash. God Bless America There are two types of people, predators and prey, and the sound you hear is the sharpening of my claws.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-03, 11:09 AM (EST) 20. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" LAST EDITED ON 05-09-03 AT 12:44 PM (EST) If you believe in a Matt/Jenna F2 and work backwards from there, the conclusion I reach is that Butch must go before Rob. Matt has alliances with Rob and Butch. He said at TC that he may have to cut one of them off at F3. Is Matt so devious that he would cut them both off to be in a F2 with Jenna? I don't think so. I think Matt probably feels he can win against any one of the three left (despite what he's telling Rob -- see MarkoPolo's thread)-- and I believe Matt wants to get through the game with the barest minimum of treachery. He doesn't really give a crap about Jenna one way or the other, and he doesn't want to backstab either Rob or Butch prematurely. If Matt wins the final IC, he would take whichever of Rob and Butch makes it to F3 along with him to F2. Therefore, my conclusion is that Matt must lose the final IC, Jenna must win, and she chooses Matt to go to F2. If Jenna's choice is between Matt and Butch, I think she would pick Butch in a heartbeat -- she said he is a moron, she seems to feel confident that everyone knows he didn't really play the game; he'd be an easy opponent for her. Matt on the other hand has been the hardest worker, he sacrificed his loved-one reward, etc. He'd seemingly be harder to beat. So, why would she pick Matt for F2? I think it will be because Rob is the other choice, and her vote will be based on personal feelings. Revenge. Despite what she says in MarkoPolo's thread, I think she really is pissed at Rob, and will be even more so now that her best bud Heidi is gone. She still feels that he betrayed friendships and lied to everyone. She will not want to give Rob even the chance to collect $1,000,000, and she will cut him off at F3. So if Jenna wins final IC, voting out Rob, Butch must go at F4. Jenna winning immunity at F4 would be the easiest way for this to happen, and it may be the only thing that would convince Matt to vote against Butch. I'm going to guess that she does win the next IC, and everyone sees Butch as undeserving/not a player/nice guy/most expendable at that point. ***Edited to add: If you read MarkoPolo's thread, Jenna and Matt both have conversations with Rob where it seems they feel he can really win the game. Some of what they tell him might be bull, but I think on some level they do believe that. So Jenna voting out Rob at F3 might not be (just) of out revenge, but because she thinks he is slick enough, and respected enough, to pull a win in the final jury vote.   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 05-09-03, 02:02 PM (EST) 27. "Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is F3" LAST EDITED ON 05-09-03 AT 02:05 PM (EST) Brownroach, I agree with your assessment. I believe Jenna wins the final 3 IC and chooses Matt over Rob. Last night at TC she said she would pick the most deserving instead of someone she knew she could beat. That would be Matt over Rob. To further support this, here is a quote from Jiffy in an article on Zap2it: "He can't control his own fate; that's what his problem is. He can't guarantee he'll get to the final two." At the final 4 vote, he has some control over his fate because he can cast a vote. At the final 3 IC, he is at the mercy of whoever wins the IC, therefore he can't control his own fate. Now I know Jiffy speaks in riddles, and you can't trust him 100%, but this says to me that Rob is final 3. Link to the article: http://tv.zap2it.com/news/tvnewsdaily.html?31486 Edited to say that I think this article came out of the same conference call that Webby was a part of, but I didn't see this direct quote on Webby's thresd.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-03, 02:19 PM (EST) 29. "RE: Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is F3" LAST EDITED ON 05-09-03 AT 02:21 PM (EST) Nice catch, Bebekid -- I hadn't seen that quote either. I agree with your reading of it, vis-a-vis Probst constantly saying Rob is the best player ever. Whenever there is a move to be made, Rob always makes the right move. Therefore if Rob does not win or make F2, it is not because he made a wrong move, it is because there was no move for him to make -- the decision was out of his hands. And in the final irony, Jenna will come off looking Colby-stupid when she picks Matt and Matt wins. Everyone will say, "but she could have beaten Rob!"   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 05-09-03, 02:43 PM (EST) 34. "RE: Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is F3" Thanks for the props, Brownroach. It means alot coming from you! >Therefore if >Rob does not win or >make F2, it is not >because he made a wrong >move, it is because there >was no move for him >to make -- the decision >was out of his hands. That's it. Like Kathy in S4. Dangit! -hearts Rob   Top

Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-03, 04:15 PM (EST) 41. "RE: Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is F3" And in the final irony, Jenna will come off looking Colby-stupid when she picks Matt and Matt wins. Everyone will say, "but she could have beaten Rob!" Not everyone. I feel that in a Matt/Rob/Jenna F3, Jenna is in the MamaKim role - damned either way. If Rob and Jenna were the final 2, I think that Rob would win. Let's look at the jury: Locks for Rob: - Matt: Would never vote for Jenna over Rob - thinks Rob is more deserving than she is (insider transcript). - Butch: Would never vote for Jenna over Rob - stayed allied with Rob even after two votes where Rob didn't vote as Butch expected him to (Roger, Christy boots). - Christy: Would never vote for Jenna. No explanation required. Lock for Jenna: - Heidi: Fondness for Jenna would override respect for Rob's gamesmanship. Remaining 3: - Dave: Hardest to read. Would he respect that Rob played the game hard, or would he vote for the chick? He was the one who gave us the priceless response to Heidi's mastermind comment, which shows that he doesn't buy all their "we work so hard, it's so hard because we're pretty" crap. - Alex: Toss up. Jenna is his friend, while Rob betrayed him. Does he reward his friend, or the better player? Hard to tell from his comments. The sting of his ouster has had time to heal, and he can respect Rob's play. - Deena: Could vote for Jenna since they had been allied, and she wants a woman to win. But she knows that the cute girls betrayed her. Rob did not betray her (see post-boot interviews that specified the scope of their alliance) and she spoke positively of him post-game. Would be easier to justify losing to someone who played the game well vs. a cute girl. Frankly, I think Dave and Deena would vote for Rob, with Alex possibly joining in. Rob would only need one of those three to beat Jenna, and I think he'd get at least one of their votes. Bebo says...919 beats 205 - I am your American Idol and the Baroness of Babedom.   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 05-09-03, 04:31 PM (EST) 43. "RE: Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is F3" Jenna is the MamaKim of the Amazon. So true, Bebo. I was thinking how similar the Amazon F4 is to Africa's F4. One woman. Three men with a seemingly tight alliance, with sub-alliances/final 2 pacts. The woman sweeps the ICs and throws a monkey-wrench into the mens' plans. I think Jenna would lose to either Rob or Matt. MamaKim would have lost to either Lex or Ethan. The only vote I can guarantee for Jenna is Heidi. The others are up for grabs (yes, even Alex). We may even see another 5-2 vote, and the only time that has happened was Africa. I just hope this finale is more interesting than Africa's finale.   Top

AZ_Leo 3526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 05-09-03, 04:41 PM (EST) 44. "RE: Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is F3" The others are up for grabs (yes, even Alex). It certainly seemed that Alex and Christy had bonded during the TC last night. It was especially noticable after Heidi was voted out. I thought that was very interesting. Wonder what Christy has been saying to Alex about her evil stepsisters? Could Cinderella being winding up with the prince?   Top

tamarama 1785 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 05-09-03, 04:47 PM (EST) 45. "RE: Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is F3" Agree with you guys re: Alex's vote...primarily because of his exchange at TC w/Christy. It looked like C: 'see, I told you' A: 'yep, you nailed it' -- completely good natured, no rivalry my team/your team stuff. I think Alex is OUT of the game, and his past alliances may not amount to anything.   Top

mtopaz 2167 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 05-09-03, 07:42 PM (EST) 49. "RE: Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is F3" For what it's worth: Alex was on the local morning show either Wed or Thursday morning of this week. I came in on the middle and only listened for about 5 minutes. But he was upset with Christy's comments on the Late Show, referring to Jenna and Heidi as bi*ches and said words to the effect "get over it, it was a game" Mmmm Topaz   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-03, 05:37 PM (EST) 48. "RE: Quote from Jiffy infers Rob is F3" I agree with you Bebo. Imo, she probably wouldn't win against Rob. But the general audience would come away thinking she would have stood a better chance of winning if she went against Rob, because she could at least point up his backstabbing and lying as reasons not to vote for him. She doesn't have any ammunition against Matt. So she would be chastised for not making the smarter pick (even if in reality she would have lost anyway).   Top

tamarama 1785 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 05-09-03, 12:25 PM (EST) 22. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" I think Butch goes first. Rob said last night that Matt's really in control of the game now, Rob's riding shotgun. I agree with him. Matt made several comments (and several FABULOUS facial expressions) that lead me to believe he is scheming and plotting every bit as much as J/R. I think he's telling R & B what they want to hear -- he's not following Rob blindly. He told Jiffy @ TC that his alliances end at F3 -- something I'm proud to say I pegged a while ago (puff puff) (OK, now I fall, right?). I think Rob & Matt have agreed to a F3 of M/R/J -- because Jenna is the evil prom queen and either of them could probably beat her. Despite their conversation about facing each other in F2, either Rob or Matt will take Jenna into F2. Therefore, unless Butch wins IC, he goes F4. My only problem with Butch gone before Rob is the Final IC. It sounds like it's going to be Fallen Comrades (in front of the jury) and I have a hard time seeing Rob losing this. However, I still kinda have faith in BoDogg -- so Matt or Jenna wins final IC, Matt takes Jenna as he planned with Rob, or Jenna takes Matt because she couldn't stand to see Rob win. I think Matt will have no problem beating Jenna in F2. I think her only votes will be Alex and Heidi. Maybe not even Alex.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-03, 12:33 PM (EST) 23. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" I think Rob is the next one booted. I think Jenna is going to work real hard on Matt and Butch convincing them to boot Rob. And if they vote with Jenna there will be no chance of the dreaded tie vote. Matt realizes that Rob will be harder to beat in the end and takes Butch who Matt thinks he can easily beat in an immunity contest. Rob is the one that could win immunity and hurt Matt's chances. Rob has said he would take Jenna to the F2. Matt may want Rob out while he believes Butch would take him (Matt) to the F2.   Top

amylynne321 30 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 05-09-03, 02:14 PM (EST) 28. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" As far as Jenna's vote goes for next week I think that she's likely to vote for Butch instead of Rob, with much of her reasoning coming from her personal belief that Butch started the fire. She lost lots of personal CRAP and since Rob (and to a lesser extent Matt) believes that Butch was at fault, I think Jenna probably thinks so too. I think she'll want to take it out on him personally, and her method of doing that will be to vote him out.   Top

DoodleBug 5133 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-03, 02:33 PM (EST) 30. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" LAST EDITED ON 05-09-03 AT 02:35 PM (EST) I think the "targeting Jenna" comment is misdirection. Things probably turn around for her but just by her dumb luck (no pun intended). We heard Jenna say to Deena at the merge "I may never win an immunity challenge". I think this was shown to us because she wins the two most important immunity challenges. Who would have thought that!! After she wins the first challenge, she may strike a deal with Rob and say - choose Matt or Butch (duh, he'll choose Matt). Or she may strike a deal with Matt and say choose Butch or Rob... thus... Rob's anxieties are at an all time high. Jenna is now in the driver's seat and controls Rob's fate. I think she probably strikes a deal with Matt because she's still pissed at Rob. Plus, she doesn't think Butch should win because he's so UTR. Matt agrees. Rob's a better player. Matt chooses Rob. Butch goes before Rob. Edited to say: Look at me! Over 100!!!   Top

managerr 1959 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 05-09-03, 02:41 PM (EST) 33. "Jenna's Choice" LAST EDITED ON 05-09-03 AT 02:48 PM (EST) I think that if Jenna happens to win the next immunity, it will give her the power to choose the bootee, and not Matt. If Matt is smart, he will go whichever way Jenna swings in order to avoid a 2-2 tie. (As long as Jenna isn't targetting him) All she has to do is win immunity and announce who she is voting for (which I can see her doing) and there will be a natural sentiment for at least one person to chime in and go along with her. I think what will most likely happen is that Rob will win F4 immunity, then he'll tell Jenna to vote Butch, which will force Matthew to vote Butch out as well. He knows Butch will take Matt instead of himself--and he thinks he has repaired his relationship with Jenna to the point that if she wins F3 immunity she'll take him over creepy Matthew. He'll be wrong of course because Jenna wins F3 immunity, stabs him in the back and takes creepy Matt to the finals.   Top

becca 17 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 05-09-03, 03:32 PM (EST) 39. "RE: IF Jenna's smart" First of all, I think Jenna will win f4 immunity the editing is pointing to it. She'll do it, and it won't be because of her beauty or anything but soley on her character and determination. I think that others are underestimating Jenna and really she's smarter than she looks. Her and HEidi talked and mentioned chaos, how because they tried to turn Christy and created so much fear, they got to stay extra days. Both girls did their best to turn the alliance, but it wasn't shown. Her best bet if she wins immunity is this get Rob out. Matt has two final 2 deals, so she needs to make him show his hand. Rob is a bigger physical threat than matt. The others think he's loyal to them. What would be the best for her is if Matthew and Rob agree to turn on Butch. Rob and Matt were talking about this in platinum and both seemed quite sure she'd just vote out Butch if JEnna gets immunity. They are underestimating her. However, Jenna goes to Butch, and says if I make it into a tie vote, you have to promise to take me to the final 2 if you win. Then they go to the rock, which JEnna will not have to pick. It works brilliantly for her in several ways. What will Matt do will he then backstab Rob? However, he still now basically has a betrayed Butch on his hands. If they go purple rock, either three leave, Jenna wins. Butch will feel betrayed by Matt, if he goes. IF matt goes, JEnna will have lost the biggest physical threat, and asf or Rob. Well I think Rob would beat Jenna do to playing. Anyone goes, JEnna wins. JEnna's best bet if she wins immunity is to go for chaos. (Which is something her and Heidi talked about extensively.) This girl is being underestimated.   Top

Jellybean 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-09-03, 02:58 PM (EST) 35. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" This is my 1st post, but I have been following the boards for weeks. My hubby is in a Survivor office pool & was in last place until I found all of you. After last nights IC & boot, he is now in 2nd, thanks to all of you spoilers!! We have had to put in our votes for the next 2 IC & next 3 boots. As a good little German girl, I've found Krautboy invaluable, & agree with his reasoning. If we are to believe the big spoilers such as C1 & the betting scandal, then we know M & J are the F2. The ONLY way J will make it past the 3 guys is to win IC next. The guys are not ready to break their alliance yet, (they risk jury votes if they turn on eachother now). Then she will be the only TC vote that counts. The guys don't have to turn on eachother, she doesn't have to sway anyone, she'll have the power. The guys can decide to give eachother all 1 vote & leave her to decide, or they will simply have to go with her decision to save themselves. Ultimately they all must think about who will be on the jury, & no one wants to rock the boat with who's left at this point. SO, because Jenna has already made it known how she feels about sneaky Rob & wouldn't count on his jury vote anyways & because she'll think Butch & Matt WOULD vote for her on the jury, she'll ditch Rob next. Logic says he's the most likely to lie & jump alliances & J knows this. She also sees Rob as the puppetmaster of Butch & Matt (though we all know Matt really is) & figures with Rob gone, she can now pull their strings. THEN Matt will win the next IC, & it's an easy jump from there to figure he would beat Jenna in the final, so he will take Jenna & boot Butch. Since Matt has made it clear that the F3 is every man for himself, he can still boot Butch without being sneaky or mean about it, & figure on Butch's jury vote. Now Matt is in the F2 still smelling like a rose, with Jenna who everyone hates. J has Heidi's vote, & maybe Alex's, but beyond that she hasn't a prayer. Hence your winner is Matt. Sorry for rambling folks, but I thought long & hard before making our final pool picks & this was the only scenario where I could see Jenna in the F2!! Plus, I pretty much copied Krautboy's reasoning because it made so much sense! Thanks again spoilers, I have thoroughly enjoyed this season with the added entertainment of the boards!   Top

AZ_Leo 3526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 05-09-03, 03:21 PM (EST) 38. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" Here's my take on what I think will happen. First, I think Matt has been taking over control of this game. There was an interesting scene at the end of TC last night that struck me. When Heidi left Rob was the first to reach behind and comfort Jenna. Matt then give Rob and interesting look, looked back at Jenna then at Rob again. I think Matt realizes that Rob is going to try to create an alliance with Jenna for F2 (he's already laid the groundwork) and will beat him to the punch. All he has to do is remind Jenna that he has never lied to her but Rob has. He can same the same to Butch. Neither of those two have shown much, if any, independent strategic thinking. It only matters that Rob doesn't win immunity, not which of the other 3 does. I wouldn't put it past Matt to say something at TC to indicate to Rob what he is doing but in such a way as to complement Rob on being his teacher, thereby still getting his jury vote even though he stabbed him in the back. That sets it up for Matt not needing to win the final IC. Either Matt or Jenna is most likely to win it over Butch who hasn't shown any ability in any kind of challenge. Jenna would take Matt as being her last alliance partner. Matt would take Jenna as being easier to beat. It also gives him a chance to play up a compassion thing by saying that he felt Jenna needed the money more than Butch. I think this would get him Butch's vote on the jury. Final vote: Heidi-Jenna Butch-Matt Rob-Matt Christy-Matt Dave-Matt (previous guys alliance) Alex-doesn't matter Deena-doesn't matter   Top

Devious Weasel 18756 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-03, 04:24 PM (EST) 42. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" Can I just agree with everything Az said and not make my own post?   Top

whoami 2936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 05-10-03, 00:08 AM (EST) 56. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" Make that two of us that agree with AZ. Rob then Butch and Matt will win over Jenna, WHOAMI The way you play a game is how you are in real life when push comes to shove.   Top

pestilence 4 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-09-03, 10:19 PM (EST) 53. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" I am with you AZ. Like I said earlier. You need to think backwards here. Jenna and Matt in the finals = Rob must go before Butch. Because Rob is the guy that everyone would want to go toe to toe with amidst the jury, he can not be around for the final three. My guess is that Matt or Jenna (but probably Matt) wins the first IC. He continues his alliance with Rob. Jenna had time to work on Butch on the way back to the burned up camp with Heidi (while Matt and Rob are eating hot dogs) and she continues to work on him, saying, he can either be the third of three or in the final two. All he needs to do is vote against Rob (who she hates). (it is even possible that she would turn on Matt, but my guess is that Butch would veto that idea, since Matt has been his ONLY alliance to date) So Jenna gets Butch to vote Rob. We have a tie and Rob ends up losing in a lame tie breaker scenerio. (I am guessing that Rob has more votes then Jenna; I am also assuming that this is the tie breaker) Matt wins the next IC and chooses Jenna. Probably for two reasons: first, he doesn't trust Butch anymore after the Rob vote, and second, he feels he can beat Jenna who has done nothing the whole time. Matt wins with the jury. My thought is that Rob cannot make the final three (tho he deserves to win more than anyone), because he would win against no-one. I am hoping Rob can pull it off and win this thing, but I am guessing that Matt beats Jenna in a landslide.   Top

jsanb 178 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 05-09-03, 05:19 PM (EST) 46. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" People please...... C1 is dead. BoDog is not verified as proof. The bet could have been based on C1. Look at the editing. There are only two people that could win this based on editing. Matt or Rob. Simple. So there is not a Rob or Butch must go first issue. The question should be, "Who wins, Rob or Matt?" Peanut Butter Jeff A Disciple of Nash   Top

Devious Weasel 18756 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-03, 05:34 PM (EST) 47. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" I wasn't going to argue this anymore, til I reread the "people please" part. BoDog happened. CBS employees made the correct F2 bet for S4 and S5 and then bet the maximum on Jenna and Matt for F6. This isn't just spoiling board rumor; this made the national wire services. Maybe they got lucky twice in a row (super lucky for picking Vee and Neleh), but to say C1 influenced them is absurd. Just as saying C1 is dead is absurd. Right now he's batting .750 on the F4 and he could still bat 1.000 on the F3 and F4. Further, nothing about the editing suggests Rob will make F2; in fact, I'd argue the editing shows he doesn't.   Top

becca 17 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 05-09-03, 07:56 PM (EST) 50. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" I think Jenna may win this thing yet. Want to bet that at first we are going to hear a lot of arogant comments from the men. Rob and Matt are also underestimating her. Rob mentioned that he thinks Jenna will vote out Butch with them. Just like that. She's not as stupid as they would like to think, and I think she may pull a vecepia if she wins final 4. (Vecepia forced a tie, to get herself a final 2 aggreement.)   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-03, 08:59 PM (EST) 51. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" I was looking for a vote thread, but it's not up yet, so this lovely Krautboy thread will do... I'm inclinded to go with Occam's Razor on this Finale. There are more complicated ways Jenna can get to F2, but there's an obvious way for which we have game precedent. Jenna gets to F2 the same way KimJ got there against a strong male alliance. She doesn't succeed in breaking up the boys; nothing fancy happens; she wins immunity both times. EPM has designed the final challenges in advance to help a woman get to the F2, because he prefers that, because the last F2 was all male and a dud, because this is the Amazon. Butch=Tom. Matt=Ethan. Rob=Lex. Occam says that neither Rob nor Matt WANT to axe Butch and risk losing his vote. Nor do I think anyone is viewing Butch as someone they can't beat. The attitude towards Butch has been universally dismissive by the players, and then he burned the camp down, and he is part of Team Crazy. Butch is a valuable vote and not an immunity threat. Brian had to axe Helen because she would have challenged him on the endurance IC, but Butch won't beat Matt. The way I see it, they are not sufficiently afraid of Butch squeaking into the finals to take him out before Jenna is gone. They will do it if forced by the same situation that spelled Tom's demise in S4. Tom accepted his F4 fate and blamed his loss on a woman winning immunity, and Butch will do the same. This leaves Matt, Jenna, Rob. Jenna must win immunity and vote out Rob. I do not think Matt would turn on one of his F2 partners in order to stand against Jenna. Matt has enough pride that he believes he can sell his case to the jury without having to pair up with someone who never worked around the camp and barely survived even so. So Jenna must win IC, and says, "there's no one I feel loyal to, but I sure hate the way Rob played and I'm giving him his comeuppance." Her motives are different than KimJ's but the result is similar. The quieter strategist goes to F2; the active schemer is F3. Jenna can pick Matt without letting spite get in the way of her bid for winning: she will see it as win-win. Why? It's not for nothing Butch and Matt are called Team Crazy. Jenna has been part of a group that now includes jurors that has consistently belittled Matt. She said to Matt (on Insider): Why are you still here? I can totally see Jenna thinking the way Rob originally thought, that Matt is the perfect F2 companion given that she can't have Heidi. Although EPM loses his best player ever to the jury, he finally gets a 21 year old girl in his F2; he could care less if she's got SKANK written all over her. Plus her mother is sick. Nevertheless, I am hoping Matthew pulls off respect votes. I think it's a 4-3 vote. Butch, Rob, Christie for Matt Alex and Heidi for Jenna Of Dave and Deena: neither particularly liked Matt, but he needs one respect vote for his survival, challenge, and low-key strategy skills to win. Deena may want a woman to win, period. Or feel backstabbed. Dave may feel sympathy for Jenna and that she was honest. Or he may think she rode along and wasn't the brightest bulb. Dave has such a huge ego I fear it may come down to who kisses his ass best when he asks his question. Nevertheless, going with the positive editing on Matt for winner. OFG *who dedicates her 2500th post to Krautboy* Aloha! "Wow. I think it's Heidi's turn to get bounced. She just pulled a Christie!" ~ my son Gabe (who doesn't read Spoilers), after Heidi's "mastermind" speech.   Top

becca 17 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 05-09-03, 09:14 PM (EST) 52. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" Actually here is where you are (in my opinion wrong) I don't think Matt will get the respect votes, and if jenna wins immunity. She will basically have four immunity wins ( to matt's two immunities/two challenges) You could argue that four immunity wins, when it counts are more important. So, Matt won't have the challenge argument. Of course he was going to win this physical challenges over the little thing that was jenna. But (if he can't beat her at what should be an even playing field like a fallen comrades?) Alex mentioned something to the effect that he thinks Matt was just lucky, and that matt basically is where he was because Rob decided matt was useful (and then Rob started teaching him the game. But at what the last three days.) Jenna is going to get up there and argue that she is where she is because she played the game the entire time rather than a few days. If she wins a fallen comarades (she'll probably use her win to prove that. See I formed more relationships, made more alliances, and Matt has no clue about any of you. jenna just may win based on game play. Matt told people he has no clue how to play the game. Roger mentioned this. I think Jenna will use it to her advantage. I personally feel that everyone including Butch deserves to win over matt.   Top

mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 05-09-03, 11:51 PM (EST) 55. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" Great post. I for one have always found your posts to be clear, logical and full of insight. I for one have missed reading your spoiler posts over the last couple of months. Welcome back even if it's temporary.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-10-03, 02:00 AM (EST) 57. "RE: Who goes first, Rob or Butch?" Congrats on 2500, OFG! I agree, Jenna needs to win the final two immunities in order to get to F2. If the next immunity is Endurance then she has a clear shot. Also, I think she put on an act last episode, trying to get herself voted off instead of Heidi, because she and Heidi both though Heidi had the better chance of getting revenge on Rob in the F4. That didn't work, but Jenna is still out to get revenge on Rob. If the next IC is History Lesson rather than Endurance, it's up for grabs, but Jenna clearly has a good shot at it; she may be lazy and self-infatuated, but she can pay attention when needed. If she succeeds at getting Rob out of the way then she has the best chance of winning Fallen Comrades. To me the signs point to Rob going first and Jenna having an easy win in the last immunity, voting off her steepest F2 competition at that point. "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 05-10-03, 10:59 AM (EST) 58. "RE: Who goes first, second, third." Well I don't necessarily think Jenna has to win BOTH IC's but I certainly can understand why people would think so, I mean just watch the show! However, until Rob leaves I still think he is calling the shots and IMO if he or Matt wins the IC, Rob's decision on who goes is the one that will happen. With that said and giving the edge to Matt to win, Rob is just going to do what Rob has always done... pull his pal Mateo aside and tell him they are close to the end, if Butch doesn't go now and wins the final IC, neither of them will win b/c everyone likes Butch; it is now or never. Could Rob's applecart get upset, yes but I haven't seen anything yet to show me Matt won't follow along with Rob. I think Jenna is doomed to be in the final two because Rob wants her there. Butch leaves with 2 votes b/c Jenna votes Rob and Butch votes Jenna. I think the final IC is an endurance one and now that Jenna sees she can potentially screw Rob over by getting him booted, she holds on to the idol or what have you for dear life and wins the IC. Rob gulps b/c he remembers what Jenna said so obviously he has a long talk with Jenna about how she can actually win the million by taking him and don't let our past get in they way. We are led to believe that Jenna is actually considering it and leads Rob to believe the same. Come final TC, she surprises everyone by taking Matt. GRRRRR says Rob. Matt and Jenna are final two and Jenna the beauty queen who no one thought could survive on her own nor took her seriously is now being looked at seriously. She conquered the men and while she lost her beauty crown she just got crowned Sole Survivor. Rob, Butch and Christy all vote for Matt Dave, Alex, Heidi and Deena all vote for Jenna. The Queen of the Amazon is crowned.   Top

Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-10-03, 11:08 AM (EST) 59. "RE: Who goes first, second, third." Dave, Alex, Heidi and Deena all vote for Jenna. The Queen of the Amazon is crowned. Things that make you go Ewwww. (Crosses all body parts, hoping VS is wrong...) You may now return to your regularly scheduled spoiling   Top

Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 05-10-03, 02:34 PM (EST) 61. "RE: Who goes first, second, third." VS had BETTER be wrong. If Jenna wins, I think I might puke my guts out. I'd also be wrong, because I voted for Matt.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 05-11-03, 10:43 AM (EST) 64. "Celebrity Guest Appearance" LAST EDITED ON 05-11-03 AT 10:52 AM (EST) Congratulations on 2500! ...and quality posts too! We miss you around here, especially when you make wonderful, insightful posts so effortlessly. Long live the OFG Theory...whatever it is. Nice to see you around here...hope you visit occasionally! Aloha Krautboy   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-12-03, 06:17 AM (EST) 65. "RE: Celebrity Guest Appearance" I just want to say hi and thank you for the kind words to Krautboy and mavsfan. I didn't feel as gone as I appeared to be this season, lol. Looking forward to Survivor 7. I woke up this morning with a bad feeling Jenna was going to win, but I refused to change my picks. I couldn't bring myself to write her name down as winner. Now that I've seen the show I'm not as bummed as when I heard the news in chat. She's a much better winner than Heidi, FWIW.   Top

ScurvyDogg 7 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-10-03, 01:45 PM (EST) 60. "F4 IC = Maze with blindfolds" The f4 IC is a maze that the survivors must complete while blindfolded. That probably leaves the f3 IC as fallen comrades. Rob sure sounded like he lost something valuable in the fire. I'm guessing he has been taking notes about details of the other survivors, which he planned on reviewing before the final IC. He probably was expecting fallen comrades to be the f3 or f4 IC, so he was probably preparing for it. He probably was keeping the notes in his bag, which was destroyed in the fire. He'll probably lose f3 IC, and get voted out.   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 05-10-03, 03:25 PM (EST) 62. "RE: F4 IC = Maze with blindfolds" LOL - I hope I am too - I am just thinking outside the box We don't know for sure it is Fallen Comrades do we? I'm just thinking along the lines of an endurance challenge and Jenna has as much of a shot of it as any of them to win that.   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 05-10-03, 04:00 PM (EST) 63. "Rob taking notes for Fallen Comrades IC" Rob's luxury item was the Magic 8 Ball as we all know. To contrast, Vee's luxury item was a journal and pen. She took notes about others, reviewed her notes prior to the IC (I remember the debate about the fairness in that), and won the IC. What would Rob have taken notes on? Is it possible that a booted Survivor left a journal and pen for Rob to use? If Rob is the best player ever, why didn't he think far enough ahead to bring his own journal and pen? Yes, I would say that from the way he sounded, something was burned that HAD to be more important than the Magic 8 Ball.   Top

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