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evanakm 250 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 05-08-03, 02:04 AM (EST) "Something we're overlooking" It is official: I have no life. This is something that popped into my head while I was lying in bed after midnight, and I figured that with less than 24 hours to go until showtime, I had best get this posted. I also realize that this would have been more useful if I had thought of it earlier than a couple days before the finale, but better late than never. A common idea around here is that we are not shown winner's alliance, but I don't think this is the case at all. What I don't think we are shown is winner's sub-alliances, e.g. Colby/Tina, KimJ/Ethan, etc. Look at the evidence: S1 - We saw the Tagi 4 alliance S2 - From the Jerri boot onwards, it was clear that Colby/Tina/Keith were calling the shots. S3 - Lex/Tom/Ethan were shown early on, and they would have been the F3 had Kim not won immunity S4 - From the merge onwards, Vee never had any face time, but she also never had any alliances that took her anywhere, so it's irrelevant in S4. S5 - We were never really shown anything, because the editing was not great in this season, however one of the earliest pacts if not the earliest shown was Brian/Ted. So based on this pattern, I think we must have seen the winner's alliance thus far. Now I know that it is impossible to determine the winner's alliance until we know the winner and can watch it in retrospect. But I have a pretty good idea of what the winning alliance is. There has obviously been scheming and alliances from this group out the wazoo. Obviously we are not going to be shown all of it. Most of the insignificant stuff gets cut at the editing room. But there is one seemingly insignificant alliance that not only has been shown, but it was important enough that it was the title of an episode: The Chain. The Chain starting with Rob who passes information to Matt who passes it to Butch. Now, there has to be some reason why so much attention given to this when I'm sure there were dozens of these little deals made. I'm sure that this chain which everyone has forgotten about will make it's appearance before the end of the show, especially with Butch's vote against the majority this week. Rob can blame Matt for keeping Butch in the dark because Matt was the next link in the Chain. So, my conclusion is that at the very least, the winner will come from the Chain alliance, which at this point means it will be a man. Dissect this theory apart as you please.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Something we're overlooking bergdogg 05-08-03 1    RE: Something Else We're Overlookin... Ms_Ultra 05-08-03 4        RE: Something Else We're Overlookin... Boilermaker 05-08-03 9  RE: Something we're overlooking SurvivorJoel 05-08-03 2  RE: Something we're overlooking PepeLePew13 05-08-03 3  RE: Something we're overlooking Brownroach 05-08-03 5    RE: Something we're overlooking Devious Weasel 05-08-03 6  RE: Something we're overlooking westgirl98 05-08-03 7    RE: Something we're overlooking ScurvyDogg 05-08-03 8

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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 05-08-03, 02:21 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Something we're overlooking" Interesting theory, since it is that this has never been in the case. Their has never been a real chain of command persay (some will differ and give exact examples). One thing is clear to us, and that is that the men must split H/J, and this is their last shot before a possible 2-2 tie at the final 4. Me and Heidi Strobel share the same birthday!!!! GO HEIDI!!!   Top

Ms_Ultra 16 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 05-08-03, 08:30 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Something Else We're Overlooking" I can't help but wonder we are focusing so much on avoiding a F4 (2-2) purple rock situation. I wouldn't put it past Rob to go to H and J and convince them to get rid of M and B, thereby completely avoiding any ties. Rob has never shown any loyalty to any player so far why would he start now. He's always looked at who's left, who he could beat and got rid of the ones he knew would be bigger threats. If that means flip-flopping all over the place he's done it. Why would he stay loyal to M and B when they are his biggest physical and F2 threats? Rob probably feels he could win the final IC over H and J. He knows he couldn't win it over M and probably not over B. (Therefore, get rid of M and B.) Rob clearly thinks he could win in finals against J and probably H as well. He figures he could make a strong case to the jury how he worked harder, played the game better, etc. He knows it would be very tight if not impossible to win against B or M. (Therefore, get rid of B and M.) R is not necessarily calling the shots, but he always has been able to work the situation to his advantage to get him one step closer to the finals. He's been able to do that because getting himself to the next step just happened to coincide with what some other group wanted. So he tags up with them that vote and immediately starts looking at the next round.   Top

Boilermaker 260 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 05-08-03, 12:57 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Something Else We're Overlooking" My thoughts are that Rob, Butch and Matt vote off Heidi this week to break up the alliance of H&J. Then the next week he feels that he can either risk a tie and vote with Jenna against Matt or keep his alliance with Matt and vote off Butch, or try to swing a vote against Matt with Butch. What I am saying is that Rob can probably realize that there will still be many possibilities that can be used if H/J is voted off this week. He can pick his stratgey based on immunity and the responses he gets when he sticks his "feelers" out. Rob is calling the shots so far. And he only betrays someone if the betrayal a.) Has a very good chance to succeed and b.) Gives him a stronger position and more opportunities in the end game   Top

SurvivorJoel 73 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 05-08-03, 07:15 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Something we're overlooking" After reading the most recent posts, and this one in particular, I'm beginning to believe that the reall alliance is between matt and Rob. Because of how Rob has been playing this game (like a snake), it's really difficult to really pin down his alliance with Matt, or with any other castaway for that matter. But I can remember three things which somehow prove that they are the two who have a Colby-Tina type of alliance: 1.) Matt gave away the IC to Rob when he 'voted' himself as the person who is everybody's crush, 2.)He still voted with Rob and the two evil step-sisters in voting out Christy -- so much for a Matt-butch, the chain alliance, and 3.) He's been shown really trusting Rob in their conversations, but the alliance is still 'overshadowed' by Rob's 'snaky' personality and the perception that he can cjange alliances anytime. So there now is my final guess: Matt and Rob in the last toss-up.   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-08-03, 07:32 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Something we're overlooking" >The Chain. > >The Chain starting with Rob who passes information to Matt who >passes it to Butch. >So, my conclusion is that at the very least, the winner >will come from the Chain alliance, which at this point >means it will be a man. You might be onto something there. S-Joel added some good points, but what if the final two is Butch and Rob? This would really tie in with the Chain scenario that's been played up quite a bit -- Rob and Butch have not been shown working together but they have been linked for a number of episodes now by Matthew acting as a go-between. Yes, Butch was left out of the loop with the Christy vote, but it may simply have been a case of fear that Butch would tell Christy about it before the vote. It's still plausible that we could have a final three of all men if Butch teams up with Rob and Matt to boot the girls in the next two TCs, although I have trouble seeing Butch win an endurance IC in the F3 or Matt/Rob taking Butch over each other in the F2. Heidi: My biggest assets to the tribe are my athletic skills and my intelligence. I've lost one of them. Jiffy: Which one?   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-08-03, 11:50 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Something we're overlooking" S4 - From the merge onwards, Vee never had any face time, but she also never had any alliances that took her anywhere, so it's irrelevant in S4. Not necessarily irrelevant -- we may be looking at a similar wind-up for S6. Neleh was in a tight twosome with Paschal, and they also had a sort-of connection to Kathy, who also had a sort-of connection to Sean and Vee, who were sort-of in an alliance. This could be compared to S6, with Jenna and Heidi as Neleh and Paschal, Rob as Kathy, and Matt and Butch as Sean and Vee. Jenna and Heidi are the tighest twosome; Matt and Butch are close but not that close, and Rob does what's best for himself, moving between the two groups. A final two of Matt and Jenna would mirror the Vee/Neleh final two: one person from the really tight alliance and one person from a less tight alliance. You could say that Matt is more aligned with Rob than with Butch, but still the outcome is similar: the person who thinks and acts most independently (Kathy/Rob) gets kicked out before the Final 2. No one would have expected a Vee/Neleh F2. Same with Matt/Jenna -- absent C1 and BoDogg anyway.   Top

Devious Weasel 18756 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-08-03, 11:58 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Something we're overlooking" Following that line, BR, Probst is talking from the standpoint of seeing things unfold as the game happened, totally devoid of any spoiler material. (Has he ever said if he actually watches the show?) If the F2 catches him off guard, then it has to be a combination that would be unlikely given what he saw. I think that pretty clearly means that Rob doesn't make it to F2. But it might mean he makes it to F3, and then Matt makes a F2 pick that no one sees coming.   Top

westgirl98 92 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 05-08-03, 12:14 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Something we're overlooking" I have always believed it was matt and rob but rob feels like matt is a physical threat but i think he thinks he can beat him in the finals. I may be missing something but I am convinced Matt has thrown at least 2 challenges, possibly 3. When they had the questions matt knew noone had a crush on him, he did it so Rob would win. I think the secret alliance has always been matt and rob and possibly butch added later.If the jury votes for who actually played the game, then I do think rob can win. Matt has played very well to, I never thought he was crazy,just very clever.I adore butch but think he has been a hanger oner!!!I think heidi and jenna are mean and dont derserve anything, they were gunning for christy as soon as they heard she was deaf, they are MFTSB!!!! Sorry, personal issues here with that but rob or matt should WIN   Top

ScurvyDogg 7 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 05-08-03, 12:33 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Something we're overlooking" Did anyone notice Jenna's comment at TC last week in which she implied that she would vote out Rob if given a chance (it was something about getting revenge for being betrayed). The camera immediately panned over to Rob to show him grimacing. I suspect Rob would prefer to align himself with J&H to vote out M&B the next two shows, but after Jenna's comment he believes that JH will turn on him at f4 ... so, this week he'll align himself with MB to vote out H ... then, next week flip into an alliance with J and M to vote out Butch. All of the flipping and flopping is also consistent with a JP comment that the alliances would change continuously during the final weeks. Once they get to the final three, either M or J will win immunity. If M wins, he'll vote out Rob b/c it's the smart move. If J wins, she'll vote out Rob for revenge.   Top

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