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PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
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"Final 5 Boot Order"
FSUGUY 447 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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05-02-03, 10:52 AM (EST)
 
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"Final 5 Boot Order" |
Now that C1's Final 4 is wrong, how do you think this will Finish?Rob,Jenna and Heidi
are they really bonded? rob gave his word...i got this oceanfront property.... Butch wins car this Thurs. MATT will do an IC run, Bye Butch, Bye Heidi,
JENNA wins endurance IC Bye Rob.
MATT v Jenna
I'm leaning towards Matt.
Interesting how the JENNA vs MATT thread started off with many picking Jenna and now most are picking Matt.
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djandy 1711 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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05-02-03, 11:37 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
Butch, with H/J/R allying again.Matt, unless he wins immunity, then 2 to 2 tie and however tie breaker is decided. Probably Heidi. Jenna or Rob would have to win immunity to get Jenna in the F2. If Jenna wins, she picks Matt/Heidi. If Rob wins, he picks Jenna. If Matt wins, I think he picks Rob because he gave his word. Therefore, if BoDog is right, it must go B/H/R with Jenna winning immunity and picking Matt. And Matt wins the million dollars.
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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05-02-03, 11:51 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
Heidi bye bye, Rob wants you gone and so you shall. You are a threat and you also aren't in Rob's pocket. You don't have enough people to help you this week. 3-2 gone.Butch - win your car and be Jan for Rob but he doesn't need Jan anymore. You knew your time was coming anyway. 3-1 The final three Jenna
Rob
Matt I'm looking for a Jenna and Rob showdown. Either way Rob knows he can maybe get to the final two - I don't believe Jenna would choose Matt over Rob for one simple reason - a million dollars. This isn't Colby and Tina. Jenna didn't have any bond with Matthew and I think she would love to smirk at her winning over Rob. Jenna or Rob winning immunity means Matt is gone IMO
Matt winning immunity means Jenna is gone IMO So I'm opting to believe that Matt doesn't get this immunity.
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chillinmcmillan 44 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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05-02-03, 11:56 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
Butch has got to go next, and he won't have a clue about it. Do the other survivors have to tell him when they are going to TC? He is clueless, I hope he at least wins the truck!
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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
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05-02-03, 12:10 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
She might do just that to screw Rob's plans. She did say she'd be in it to screw him over from now on. Or maybe she's still dillusional and thinks that everyone's perception of Matthew as a "freak" of sorts will cause him to lose since everyone loves her because she's beautiful (even though they're all jealous of her body).Honestly, I just can't see Matt betraying Rob unless something major happens between them soon. Matt has heard so many horrible things about Rob, both from Rob and from others, and yet he is still solid with him and planning for them to be the final 2. Logically, the next to go will be Heidi, unless she wins immunity. She's still a threat, especially if she gets into the final 4. From the Yahoo clips, Matt thinks the girls don't deserve to be there and that Butch does. Also, it'd just be a bad scene to have both Jenna and Heidi at 4, since there's a very small chance that they'd split their votes. Rob's already expressed this thought. Since Rob is yet again betraying the girls, it really would've been better for him to hold on booting Christy at least until this spot, but I guess the Christy boot was a safe way to go, incase she went against him. At 4, Butch is probably gone first, possibly with Jenna winning immunity, since Matt really just doesn't seem to like her. Rob is next, because I believe the gambling spoiler is true. It's bad business to have something like that happen and to publish accounts of it. Making something like that up, you might as well just be throwing your profits away. I think Jenna votes out Rob in a revenge and a "screw you" type move, as mentioned at the beginning of this post. Then someone wins, probably Matt, looking at his editing this episode. Despite Christy's attitude, she was still set up as a "good guy". Looking at Matt's voting commentary, it looks like he was manipulated by Rob yet again into believing some form of a stretched truth. But we didn't see it. And we didn't see nastiness towards Christy. Jenna, on the other hand, has a good angle that went unseen on the show - Her and Heidi are the anti-Rob brigade. Rob being our crafty villain, this could easily be manipulated. Yet much of their planning, including Jenna sacrificing herself for Heidi, was not in the actual show. This one especially is important as they had a major discussion about this. But what we saw on the show had no overtones of self sacrifice. From my view, at least, it seemed to show Jenna as being over-confident and cocky about her position within the tribe. The votes will be something like this, probably with Dave (who didn't know Jenna very well, had at least some respect for Matt and is a "guys-guy") voting for Matt and Deena voting for Jenna because she wants a woman to win (plus she thought Matt was creepy and did have some sort of minor friendship with Jenna). Dave - Matt?
Deena - Jenna?
Alex - Jenna
Christy - Matt
Heidi - Jenna
Butch - Matt
Rob - Matt  
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DoodleBug 5133 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-02-03, 01:39 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
I noticed that. I think the general public knew that Jenna would ask her father about her mother's condition. Editing was just satisfying our curiosity. Unless you were thinking something else?
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djandy 1711 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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05-02-03, 12:05 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
I think if Jenna wins final immunity she will choose Matt to enact her revenge against Rob. If you read Markopollo's Survivor Platinum thread, Heidi and Jenna plot that they could care less if they win, they just want to put Rob in his place after voting out Alex. They plot to have Jenna give Heidi her IN just to give Heidi, who's a bigger immunity threat, the chance to enact revenge on Rob. So yes, I think if Jenna wins final immunity she will pick Matt.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-02-03, 12:21 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
This is how I think it goes now too. Rob wants to split the girls up. And he wants to drag Jenna kicking and screaming to the final 2 with himself. So he has to get rid of Heidi.Heidi goes next. Then I think Jenna and Butch finally get Matt to see that Rob is not to be trusted. Matt finally sees that Rob has no intention of taking him to the final 2. So Rob is voted out. Then Butch is booted because he is too nice to be in the final 2. Matt and Jenna in the final 2 with hopefully Matt winning.
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SurvivorJoel 73 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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05-02-03, 12:43 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
Thiis is my take on the final booting order:
Next to go is Rob, Matt winning the IC. First of all, Butch is less of an IC threat (which means that can wait), so that's the only way the two girls would convince Matt to vote with them. Besides, I am sure Matt knows by now that Rob's been wrapping him around Rob's little finger all this time, and that Rob's better at this game than he is.Next to go is Butch, because the three left know that in F2, he could be a threat. Next to go is Heidi, after Matt win's the immunity challenge. He thinks he has a better chance at winning with Jenna beside him. He's seen Jenna make (or at least seem to) make more enemies than Heidi. He once stated that, when Alex was still around, that why should the 'power four' antagonize them when, for sure, there'll be three votes, at least, to go against them? He knows the game, therefore he'll bring Jenna to F2. Then Jenna wins, with Deena, Alex, Heidi, and Rob voting for her -- the original alliance.
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LeftPinky 4150 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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05-05-03, 00:13 AM (EST)
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39. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
Hey Weasel...
I concur with you last three, but flip Heidi and Rob. IMHO Jenna set up a Rob boot by saving Heidi at the last TC. Thanks to Markopolo's platinum, we know it was calculated - save Heidi and make a move to dump Rob for his turning on Alex. While M/B don't trust the women, they know how devious Rob is, it's time for his walk of shame.
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samboohoo 17173 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-02-03, 12:36 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
I remember reading something a while back about Jenna and Heidi taking Rob out, but dismissed it based on Milkshaky and Alex's boot. And darn that CO.I think it could be anyone's game at this point. Is there some foreshadowing about Rob stating he would beat Jenna in the final, only to have him lose to her instead. (Look at recent examples: Deena being ousted by the girls she thought she would dominate, Christy not making it to the Final Four after telling her boyfriend she would, etc.) Also, I think the wildcard here could be Butch. His statement when voting off Jenna was that he was with the alliance. Little did he know, they weren't with him. Now Rob and Matt have some explaining to do. Can they save themselves or are they screwed? Vidcaps show Butch walking arm and arm with the boobie twins. Could Jenna and Heidi get Butch to help them boot Matt or Rob? Guess I'll have to overthink it for the next couple of days . . .
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cqvenus 9765 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-02-03, 01:57 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
I posted this earlier in response to a question, but it was in bashers, so I figured it would go unappreciated.Anyway, here's what I think about Matt: I'd like to offer a theory that Matt is "in character." I really think it's highly possible that Matt hasn't let his real normal self out this whole time, and is playing a big part for the sake of the game. I think he plays off that he has no clue about survivor, but I think that's his plan. He's pretending he doesn't know, but know he does, and he has known all along. It was weird seeing him with his mom. It was like she didn't really know him, he seemed to be acting very strangely to her, she seemed caught a little off guard. I think Matt is playing everyone for the big fool. He won't even reveal his strategy in his confessionals. He won't confess a thing about the game to his own mother when she comes. He's talking about the jungle and the trees and the food! He -so- won't confess his angle so much that I think the show is getting mad so they made Jeff interview him about what he's thinking. Go Matt. He was still ambivalent and apathetic and seemingly clueless. But I really don't think so. I think Matt knows exactly what he's doing. I hope not, because I want Rob to win. But Matt -could- be this smart. He's definitely this dedicated and focused.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-02-03, 02:53 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
"If" Matt is really playing a part it is pure genius to not even reveal it in his camera talks. Jeff often uses things the players say behind each other's back to ask cryptic questions at TC. But all he thinks about Matt is that he is clueless.
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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05-02-03, 02:06 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
I'm gonna go way against the grain.They're not showing us who gets sick next week, which probably means that person WILL get the boot. Why hide it if it has no impact. I believe that person is Jenna. Jenna goes fifth leaving us in a quandry to all the spoilers and with nothing to go on for the Final 4. Butch goes 4th. If IC is fallen comrades, either Rob or Heidi will win. I'll give Heidi the edge and they take out Butch. Heidi wins Final IC and takes out Rob in revenge. Matthew wins the vote. Heidi would have won against Rob.
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tamarama 1785 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
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05-02-03, 02:29 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
Butch has to be next. I think H/J/R/M will finally realize that the alliance dance has to end, and will eliminate the last outsider, to duke out the last 4 spots among themselves.Heidi goes next, the guys pick her, still considered an immunity threat, and more likable than J or R. Jenna goes along -- I think after last night's episode, Jenna's game is rejuvinated & she will be going for the money, not just to screw Rob. Matt wins immunity(?) and she can't talk Matt into booting Rob yet, so Heidi is the one to go. As I said on another thread, J/M/R F3 is pretty straightforward. If J or R win immunity, they will take each other. Neither one can win against Matt. Matt wins immunity, and because he knows how nasty Jenna is, and Rob is still considered a friend, he will take Jenna as easier to beat. Although I think he could beat Rob too. I think M/R have probably discussed that either of them has to take Jenna F2...I think their alliance ends at F3. Matt has the holy trinity of Survivor qualities right now...hard working, good player (even though he started out not knowing the game), and nice guy (even if a little creepy). He is perceived as having played more 'honestly,' and the gesture at last night's RC will not be forgotten.
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tamarama 1785 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
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05-05-03, 01:16 PM (EST)
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48. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
I'm waffling on my own B/H order now...Bebo made a good point on another thread that the girls need to be split up to avoid a tie at F4. Good point. They've already done some wacky things to avoid ties, so re-aligning again wouldn't be out of the question. If they do boot Butch, I could easily see R/J/H voting together to avoid a tie at F4, but somehow I can't totally discount BoDogg in my own mind -- I think Matt stays. I don't see Matt voting with J/H. I'm rambling, I'm confused, I'm pathetic
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Jedidog 15 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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05-02-03, 02:39 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
This is the way it could breakdown: Could Rob/Butch/Matt convince Heidi-ho to vote against Jenna? She has been swayed before. If Rob can convince her to save her own bacon at this stage in the game (Jenna and Heidi must know they are seen as two votes and MUST be separated), I think perhaps Heidi might take it. Plus the CBS clips seem to point us in this (mis)direction.
It doesn't seem like Jenna is still "in it to win it" per Markopolo's posting. She would rather screw Rob over than win the game.
Rob could convice Heidi they will vote Butch out fourth(he is too nice and nobody would have a shot against him, and then it would be every man or woman for themselves. Of course Rob seems to have Matt very much under his control and knows for sure Matteo will take him to Final two. Rob, being Rob of course, will backstab Matt and take Heidi to the Final two.
At the Final Tribal Council, Rob can easily outsmart Heidi and play up to the jury. He will convince them all he deserves to win due to his gamesmanship. He has backstabbed EVERYONE. He will come clean and they will actually admire his gameplaying. From previous quotes, it seems everyone admires Rob's knowledge of the game. What could Heidi say? She played a clean game and didn't backstab anyone? Tooo boring. PLUS, MB has showcased Matt and Rob so much and made them likeable and/or respectable. Heidi and Jenna have been portrayed in an awful me, me, me, egotistical biotch manner. And Butch? He is so UTR even Burnett doesn't know what to do with him. Honestly, is there even 1, just 1 person who actually thinks ol' Butchy can win this thing?
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-03-03, 06:30 AM (EST)
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22. "The wrench." |
I'm gonna throw it in there. The "CO know's the final 4 boots" theory. Previously mentioned by RudyRules, as an after thought.
CO says...
F4
4.Deaf girl
3.Man in his 50's
2/1."Jana"
1/2.Built man with tight haircut/parted on the side.
What if...
CO = Christy/Butch/Jenna/Matt ... leaving Heidi and Rob as F2. CO's intell stops at the boat. The intell he gets is of the last four boot's not the F4.
My thought's after witnessing the Christy boot is... Butch gets the boot in the next ep. because he is feeling ill by just being around the rest of the folks left.
Rob says "no prob", Jizzelda and Heineous agree ... "ya' let's kick 'im off!
He's such a threat. He's ugly! And Nice!" Ep12. J/M/R/H left. Rob and Matt vow to take off a woman, most likely Heidi. Jenna and Heidi are feeling rebellious and hope to oust Rob.
Yet F4 IC is "Fallen Comrades". Rob has been "in" the mind of all of the remaining players.
Therefore, Rob wins IC and after researching the field realizes that Heidi said that she would vote to boot Jenna, because it would be to her advantage. Rob confers with Matt, and Jenna is next. Make that "Jana". Ep.13 M/R/H left. Rob and Matt vow to "eachother" to take off Heidi. Yet now Rob has decided that Heidi is actually a worse/better F2 partner than Matt. Proven by Matt's ability to continually come out ahead of the rest. (giving family visits away, etc.)
Rob promises to take Matt out. Bye Matt. Rob or Heidi
Deena = Rob (taking a long shot here, but she did seem to blame the "girls" more than she did Rob, for her demise)
Dave = Heidi(she tried to save him)(and he, her)
Alex = Heidi(over Rob? anyday)
Christy = Rob(not voting for either of the "evil step-sisters")
Jenna = Heidi (No comment)
Matt = Rob (No comment) S6 "whiner" ... Heidi Strobel
An Amazon win's. Hopefully she will cut off a breast to prove it.
ICK! Please tell me I'm not right.
I'd be happy with a Matt win. Since Christy is gone.
tribephyl
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Chez 777 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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05-03-03, 07:53 PM (EST)
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25. "No wrench." |
I've been thinking about the logistics for the voted-off contestants leaving each TC. Seems like they are all leaving in boats. It would make sense to me that the jury would leave together, but the last person voted off would be kept separate, in order to psychologically support them through the trauma and readjustment. My guess is, that happens every TC. So envision CO's boat driver is the one taking the most recently voted-off contestant away from TC Even at the last TC, where the million dollar winner is voted on, the person coming in 3rd would still need that type of support in leaving TC. Therefore he/she would likely be taken off in a boat separate from the remaining jury members. Therefore, this eliminates the "monky wrench" referred to above. Mr. Boat Driver would in fact see who was #3. (As an aside, in the case of the last TC, the Final 2 would be taken away in yet another boat, or 2.)
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FSUGUY 447 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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05-03-03, 09:52 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: No wrench." |
3rd person loses IC goes immediately to jury (DOES NOT LEAVE). Vote. ALL leave.
2 boats = 9 survivors. no special boat needed.
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ScurvyDogg 7 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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05-05-03, 05:25 PM (EST)
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53. "Boot list with revised CO" |
Then assuming that CO's final four was actually f7-f4 they may have been as follows:Alex was the strong guy with close cropped hair parted on the side. He looks like he might be mid-20s even though he's 32. It's a better match than Matt. Christy was the deaf girl. Butch is the 50 year old guy. Jenna should be the hot looking girl with a name similar to Jana, but I'm guessing that CO's source got the name wrong. Maybe Heidi was told to pass her self off as Jenna. Anyway, I'm betting that Heidi was the 4th person on CO's list. That leaves Matt, Rob, and Jenna as the final three. Going with the BoDogg spoiler means that Matt must win immunity at f3 and vote out Rob. The next to go should be Heidi. Butch probably realizes that he can't get past f4 now that Christy is gone. Whichever pair he goes with this week, will vote him off next week. His only hope is to win immunity at f4 and f3 ... which he won't do. He'll pair up with R&M. Butch gets booted the following week (he's to great a threat at f2). Rob gets booted by Matt b/c Jenna is an easier opponent at the final TC. Matt wins 5-2 or 4-3. He gets Christy, Butch, Rob, and Dave for sure, and maybe Deena. If Matt went against Rob at the final TC, Rob would argue he was the teacher while Matt was merely the student ... and the teacher is more deserving of the vote than the student. It probably wouldn't play ... but, Matt won't take the chance.
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-03-03, 10:27 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
Have anyone noticed that many of the times we have a surprise boot, it comes out of NOWHERE? It's kind of been a tough way to spoil since we can never tell where Rob is going to swing.Anyway. Final 5 -This week, we have a preview showing Heidi talking about how she might not need Jenna anymore. I'm labelling this as SeeBS misdirection. Think about it. Jenna thinks she has something going with Rob. Heidi MUST have an idea if she thinks she doesn't need Jenna anymore. However, I don't think any of this has to do with Jenna and Heidi voting for each other. -Last week we had a preview of Rob telling Jenna & Heidi to vote for him, but who ended up alligning in the end? So I still see H/J alligned for now. I still see R/M alligned as well. That leaves Butch. Would the two pairs of alliances vote the lone wolf out? Possibly. It depends on whether H/J or R/M has bigger fish to fry. -Call it a gut feeling (since these alliances come out of nowhere), but I am envisioning Heidi approaching Butch for a third in their alliance. Who will they decide to boot? Matthew or Rob? -My final 4 pick is Matthew, for two reasons. The guy is an immunity threat first of all. Secondly, Jenna feels like she can use Rob later (Heidi may feel the same way). I'm not sure that they could use Matt. Also, note Rob's comment about wanting to dump Matt. Final 4 -Jenna and Heidi may both be convinced that Rob is in their pockets. They boot Butch. It's hard to predict though, because anything could happen. Final 3 -Depends on who wins immunity. I have this sinking feeling though, that Jenna will win the final immunity challenge. Why? To fulfill all of the editing about revenge against Rob. I can see MB misdirecting us by making us remember Rob's strategy with Jenna, but that has NOTHING to do with Jenna keeping Rob around. She may just want to get her revenge. Hence, Rob goes. Finals -I think Jenna would have a better shot at it than Heidi, but it really depends on how the jury questions would go. -Note: This would be a pretty close TC. Summary 5. Matthew
4. Butch
3. Rob
2. Heidi
1. Jenna Alternate: 5. Butch
4. Matthew
3. Rob
2. Heidi
1. Jenna
In Honor of Summary Writers...
6. "Christy’s smile... one of the 1,612 defining moments" -TeamJoisey
7. "Christy wins the Jan Gentry “Aim High” Award" -Fester
8. "Heidi and Jenna are more Butch than Butch" -Draco
9. "Matthew: DINNER!" -Anotherkim
10. "Janet misplaces her granola bar. Granolagate!" -Swami
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amylynne321 30 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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05-03-03, 11:56 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
First, I think Jenna is the sick one begging to leave.Jenna cries and wants to go home.
Heidi whines and cries when;
Butch wins the Reward (a Car)
Neither girl will help out once the fire destroys the camp (big shock!!)
Matthew wins the IC. Heidi votes Jenna (Jenna asked her to)
Jenna votes Rob (as she will from now on)
Butch votes Jenna (she wants to leave, and he doesn't want to force her to stay- he's that kind of a guy.)
Matt and Rob vote Heidi (it's to their advantage that Jenna is sick and tired of the game and they know they have to get rid of one of the boobies- and if Rob can torture Jenna a little bit more...all the better). Tie between Heidi and Jenna (excellent); RE-VOTE: Butch switches his vote to Heidi to go along with the guys. Heidi Booted EP12. F4= Butch, Matt, Jenna and Rob EP13:
Matt wins the IC.
Jenna's vote is for Rob.
Butch's vote is for Jenna. (She's still sick.)
Rob and Matt vote for Butch (He'd win the Jury vote against either of them.) Butch Booted EP13 Final
Matt wins IC and chooses Jenna to go to F2 with him (because he's been listening to Rob tell him that Jenna doesn't have a shot with the jury as she's screwed over the majority of them.)
It's the supreme moment when we discover that although Rob thought he was controlling the game, Matt was controlling the game. Votes for Jenna: Heidi, Alex (maybe Dave)
Votes for Matt: (maybe Dave), Deena, Christy, Butch, Rob Matt wins S6.
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chillinmcmillan 44 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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05-04-03, 00:57 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
I like your picks....Butch will be the first survivor to win both the Truck and the money!!!
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IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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05-05-03, 03:44 AM (EST)
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40. "I Hope This Happens" |
Wow whoami what a scenario. Butch isn't edited like the winner but then neither was V. Maybe the Bobbsey twins will approach Butch just like they did Christy. We can only hope.
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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05-04-03, 01:05 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
I agree with Kokoro's analysis with one caveat: I think Jenna would win a F2 showdown with Matt. Matt would get Butch, Christy and Rob. Heidi and Alex are easy votes for Jenna so it comes down to Dave and Deena. Deena never had any type of relationship with Matt. In fact, he was out if he didn't win immunity and Deena made this call. She never got to see the "normal" side of Matt at all. On the other hand, Deena appears to be a staunch feminist and while Jenna did stab her in the back, she is the type of player, and personality, who would reward and recognize a strategic move by another player as good game play. I think Deena would vote for Jenna. Dave is a tougher call but keep in mind that he was never betrayed by Jenna. When Matt, Rob and Alex took out Roger, Dave was done. He trusted these guys and they screwed him. As for Jenna, they seemed to get along fine on their "date" and have no other issues that would cause Dave to think of her in a negative light, primarily because they didn't spend enough time together. Heidi could also be influential in his opinoin of Jenna. Lastly, I think Dave will perceive Matt to be Rob's lackey and undeserving of the win because he rode coattails to the endgame. Important points to consider: From Rob's perspective, he does not want to go to F4 worried about a 2-2 vote. He needs to target one of the girls this week. The same goes for Matt. He'll realize this becasue Rob will tell him so. Strategically, what's good for Rob is good for Matt. Butch will stick with the guys thereby surviving another TC. Rob convinces Matt to vote against Butch in F4 because no one will want to face good guy Butch in the F2. In complete agreement that Jenna takes Matt to the F2 over Rob. I believe that Jenna honestly believes she can beat either anyway AND she gets her revenge on Rob. She stated very clearly in the Yahoo insider clip in her discussion with Heidi about the Immunity transfer that Heidi was the bigger threat and Jenna would give up IN and risk getting voted out so Heidi could extract revenge against Rob. This is now her primary goal. And she'll succeed.
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chowderhead 1 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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05-04-03, 07:03 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
Possible scenerio: This week's previews makes mention of a "sick Survivor". Also, we have an outtake of Heidi stating that she would consider voting "her" out. (Big old paraphrase there.) Is it conceivable that the afore mentioned "sick Survivor" is Jenna and that Heidi recognizes that Jenna is too sick to continue and decides to vote her out? If this is the case, Jenna could go next...
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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05-04-03, 02:05 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
First, chowderhead, welcome to Blows! Now that C1 has been exposed, we need all the help we can get.Sure, a Jenna boot is possible. At this point, one could make a legit and plausible case for just about anyone. My thougth is that this is classic preview misdirection away from Heidi. Heidi states that she could vote against Jenna leading the audience to think that Jenna is vulnerable when, in fact, Heidi is the one in danger. While it's true that C1 blew up big time, BoDog still has some credibility. I'm still convinced Matt and Jenna end up as F2, but still working on a scenario that gets them there...
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ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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05-05-03, 07:24 PM (EST)
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56. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
Smooches for munson for having a similar theory as I 
I still believe in the BoDogg spoiler and thought of that as a stronger spoiler info than C1. The upcoming boot is a toss-up between Butch and Heidi. Rob still has a lot of control on who's going to go. All of them have no choice but to go with his swing vote since they'd be the default target if they go against him. There are 2 groups of people now: Matt/Butch and Jenna/Heidi. Neither group has rapport with the other. Matt and Butch aren't exactly the type who'd align themselves with 2 lazy undeserving girls who have done "jack sh!+" around camp. Rob's definitely the one with the tightest ties with everybody so I don't see the others voting against him yet coz they want him to vote with their group. Rob would like to keep Matt since Matt had already sworn on their alliance and he's not the type of guy who'd break on his promise to Rob (aka Rudy). He said he gave the only promise he'll ever make in the game, and that promise was to Rob. I believe Matt. But I also believe that Rob'd prefer to go against Jenna in the final 2 as per his conversation with Jenna. Hence, Jenna's safe this week too. This leaves Butch and Heidi. It all depends on what Rob is thinking. If he doesn't think that Butch is all that trustworthy and may switch his votes, then he'd boot Butch out and keep Heidi over him. However, I think we have to take into account Butch's personality. He was voted as the person you'd trust your life to, and he's also the "Jan" type of person who's just happy to be there and is unlikely to conduct any coup on the dominant alliance. I believe Rob will know this and therefore has to kiss his crush, Heidi, goodbye. It doesn't really matter if Heidi or Butch gets kicked off this episode. The other will probably follow in the next episode. I am pretty much leaning towards Heidi and the preview about her was just a misdirection. The vote this week is between her and Jenna and Heidi knows it, hence Heidi said that it really is an advantage for her to campaign for Jenna's vote. It seems like a dumb comment when I first heard it since she's ensuring herself 2 votes by aligning with Jenna. However, after I consider the other possibilities-- ie. the likelihood of Matt or Butch aligning with them to vote out another player-- I realize that this is the only option available for Heidi. Rob has no advantage in voting for Butch and going 2-2 against the girls and picking up the purple rock (Hail the purple rock! Hallelujah..... Oh glory! -- I gotta put this in my signature. Loving the purple rock more and more every season even though its effect has killed off many of my favorite Survivors). That Heidi's comment on campaigning against Jenna is a misdirection when it's taken at the surface. But when you look at the big picture, this is actually more of a clue since it indicates that Heidi and Jenna are vulnerable since they are not tight with Rob anymore and the next vote is likely to go between the both of them. Anyway we'll probably have Rob, Matt, Jenna, and Butch as final 4. Butch is a goner coz he's unallied and he's likeable. (note: outside spoilers seem to indicate that Deena had a great relationship with Christy and Butch, so they are likely to have met up with her again in LL. Deena harbors a lot of animosity towards Rob, it seems so Rob has a high probability of making it to the final 3 at least since the jury votes immediately after the second runner-up gets voted off). With Matt and Jenna in final 3, Rob thinks that he's on cloud 9 and is a lock for final two. Then disaster happens: Jenna won immunity at final 3. She stated very clearly in the Yahoo insider clip in her discussion with Heidi about the Immunity transfer that Heidi was the bigger threat and Jenna would give up IN and risk getting voted out so Heidi could extract revenge against Rob. This is now her primary goal. And she'll succeed. This piece of information really struck me. Remember that revealed strategies (unless it's last minute revelations) never suceed. Jenna will suceed in taking revenge against Rob. The immunity sacrifice was not shown to the mainstream audience so they will not know the extent of Jenna's hatred towards Rob. They'll all wait with bated breath and think that Jenna will take Rob to the final two because her chance of winning against him is higher than winning against Matt. Jenna decides to screw Rob by taking Matthew. She doesn't really care if she wins the million dollars, and I think that she'd believe she has a chance winning against Matt anyways. The vote reads:
Dave-- Jenna. He has a good impression of Jenna from their date and from Heidi, and I believe he might have been a little burnt by the guys' deceptions that screwed his alliance. From the chats and interviews that we had heard from Roger and Dave, they gave the indication that the guys (Alex, Matt, and Rob) took them for a ride and made them believe that they were tight. I believe that Dave, being a straight-shooter honest guy, would value Jenna's honest play over Matthew's betrayal. His vote is a possible swing vote, but I think he'd vote Jenna over Matt.
Deena-- Jenna. Someone had mentioned before that Deena seems to be a feminist and the type of player who'd value gameplay strategies over the hurt of being backstabbed. I agree. Still a possible swing vote though. Alex-- A lock for Jenna. Christy-- Will vote for anybody other than her evil step sisters. A lock for Matt. Heidi-- A lock for Jenna. Butch-- Probably for Matt since he's practically the only person who took him in after his alliance with Roger and Dave floundered. It depends if he felt hurt by Matt, but I don't think so. Possible swing vote but likely to vote for Matt. Rob-- If Jenna won the final immunity and didn't take Rob to the final two, who will the petty insecure bastard vote for? This combined with the jury voting immediately after his probable booting wouldn't help matters since his anger has yet to have the time to subside. A lock for Matt if the outlined scenario occurs.
Winner------ (drrrrrruuuuuummmmmrrrrroooooolllllll)
...........................
...........................
...........................
Jenna
Now, go away! 
Kathy O'Brien... The Sole Survivor! (I'd rather be delusional)
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KeithFan 7422 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-04-03, 02:15 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
Next to go Heidi or Jenna. I would have said definately Heidi before but the CO doesn't seem what it is cracked up to be. They have to break up the terrible twosome.Next Rob plans on Butch but M/J/B turn the tables and vote out the Robasu. That leaves us with 3 wild cards in the final episode. My bet would be that Matt wins the final immunity and takes jenna
"Give me chastity and continence, but not yet."
- Saint Augustine (354-430)
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proofofnolife 58 desperate attention whore postings
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05-04-03, 06:16 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
FSU Guy- I to am leaning towards Matt- I believe he is dumb like a fox. How much bonding will remain when it comes right down to winning or losing 1 Million Dollars! I would like to see a Rob and Matt final. Win lose or draw,they have played a helluva game (especially Rob). GO NOLES!
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
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05-04-03, 09:00 PM (EST)
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36. "Rember S1? boot order - B/J/M - F2 = R/H" |
Rob is a student of SURVIVOR, and Matt is his Rudy.Rob will vote again with the girls to eliminiate Butch. I've argued in a previous post that Butch should be safe this week since both J/H & R/M need his vote. But, after further consideration, I think this is the very thing that seals Butch's fate. Neither side, J/H or R/M, have developed a dependable alliance with Butch (has he ever been in the voting majority?). Since no dependable alliance has been formed with Butch, neither alliance will risk Butch siding with the other. So, much like Christy's boot, an alliance of the moment will be formed and Butch will get the ax. We appear then to have 2 alliances of J/H vs R/M.
But we've already seen Heidi willing to turn on Jean. And we've seen Heidi say Jenna's ouster would work to her advantage. And we know Rob want's to take someone to the final 2 who'd disliked more than him. (After Jenna made a selfless sacrifice at TC, giving up immunity - a possible play for jury votes - she may now be unbeatable in Robs eyes, Much like Matt is). So Heidi joins the boys and votes out Jenna. With a final 3 of Rob, Matt and Heidi, Rob's in the cat bird seat much as Rich was in S1. He's guaranteed a final 2 slot no matter who wins the final challenge. Like Rich, I'll expect to see Rob THROW the final challenge hoping that Heidi will win. This will give us the CO final 4 boot order and reveal BoDog as misdirection.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-05-03, 12:14 PM (EST)
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46. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
LAST EDITED ON 05-05-03 AT 12:15 PM (EST)Rob is in the central position here (unless the other four decide to gang up and boot him), and game logic suggests that he do whatever he can to avoid the purple rock at F4. Therefore, at F5 he needs to team with either Heidi/Jenna or Matt/Butch to get to F3. He knows that the final challenges historically tend to favor women (Oz and Thailand final IC's went to men, but he didn't see the end of Thailand until after he returned home), and he would also want to avoid if possible having the loner at F4 get to F2 by winning the final ICs. And he has to hope he can either win the final IC or that the winner will take him to F2 instead of the other. So, it becomes a question of which pair is most likely to break apart at F2. While Matt and Butch have been manipulated, they have demonstrated loyalty throughout the game (though not necessarily to each other), whereas Heidi and Jenna not only can be manipulated but have shown they are both willing to do whatever it takes to get ahead in the game. At F5 Rob continues his game with Heidi and Jenna, target Matt or Butch. Matt most likely wins IC so Butch goes. Matt again wins IC at F4, messing up Rob's plan to avoid purple rock, so Heidi/Jenna vote Rob while Matt/Rob vote Heidi or Jenna. Tie vote goes to purple rock, unpredictable outcome. If C1 has any remaining validity it is possible his source gave him final four boots, not final four, so Jenna and Matt get booted leaving Heidi and Rob as F2. But if the betting scandal is valid then Jenna and Matt have to be F2. AUUUGGHH! At this time I'm leaning towards:
5. Butch
4. Rob (purple rock)
3. Heidi (booted by Matt)
2. Jenna
1. Matt  ARRRRRRR!!!!
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TomPasmore 3 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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05-05-03, 01:11 PM (EST)
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47. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
Here I go trying to predict the future.
- I think Matt has an immunity run in him.
So the more interesting question is If you were trying to win the money who would you WANT to sit next to when facing the jury.Butch did not vote for Christy but doesn't really have any enemies. Matt has the least enimies, he is just crazy. Jenna and Heidi have Christy, plus some random annoyed people. Rob has stabbed everyone in the back so he is the weakest. So in closing,
- Butch has to go cause no one wants to sit next to him at the jury and he was the odd man out last week. - Rob has to go, cause he is too dangerous and everyone remembers how Richard won the million. That leaves Matt Heidi and Jenna Either way i think matt wins here. If Matt wins the final challenge he is in. But if one of the girls wins I think they would finally turn on each other. But i believe Matt wins out and wisely pulls Jenna into the final two. She has burned some bridges and so much has been of pretty girls being hated this season that I think the jury sides with Matt. Matt is your survivor!
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DoodleBug 5133 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-05-03, 01:27 PM (EST)
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50. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
The theme of boots seems to be Pride Cometh Before the Fall (with a couple exceptions*):Ryan - too cocky - boot
Daniel - too lazy and cocky - boot
Janet - denies granola bar - boot
Joanna - religious fanatic - boot
Jeanne* - no pride, just a victim here - boot
Shawna* - no pride here either - boot
Roger - "it's too good to be true" - BOOT
Dave* - guilty by association and a threat - boot
Deena - "the game is mine" - BOOT
Alex - final four game plan - boot
Christy - "I have the power" - boot So, I think Heidi will be the next boot. She'll be thinking she has it made in the shade again and Rob will get Butch and Matt to vote her out. Heidi - too cocky - boot! Rob is next. All of his wheeling and dealing won't last. He'll start thinking he's got it made in the shade - boot! Butch is next because he's too nice. No one wants to be next to the nice guy in the end. Matt and Jenna at the finals with Matt winning. The student (Matt) will remember what is master (Rob) said - I have the best chance of winning against Jenna.
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Wacko Jacko 2438 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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05-05-03, 06:04 PM (EST)
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55. "I've got it" |
Rob realizes that he needs to breakup the Heidi/Jenna alliance or else he may not make it to the final 2 so as already discussed he picks to get rid of Heidi because he stands a better chance with jenna. Something tells me Rob wins immunity this week. This is what helps Butch decide to go with Rob and Matt. He like Matt more than the two girls and also realizes that he needs to break the girls up. He can't vote for Rob so Butch says either Matt or H/J and Butch chooses H/J to say good-bye. Heidi is gone at 5.Next episode. Jenna is really mad at Rob for again turning on their 'alliance' and her good buddy Heidi. She wants him gone and tells all to Butch he agrees and Matt goes along with them. Rob is now gone at 4. Next Jenna wins immunity against Butch and Matt. It's the endurance immunity and if Kim Johnson could win that the Swim Suit Model can too. So Jenna wins and thinking of everything said about Matt in the past choose him. She'll say she took him as a return favor for the Reward Challenge of last week. Butch is now gone. Final 2: Matt and Jenna. The way everything has been edited seems to indicate Matt is our winner. Need I go back and state all the negative things Burnett has presented us about Jenna. Matt is being presented as the underdog. Everyone likes the Underdog. therefore Matt must be our winner. Only problem with that. I see Rob, Christy, and Butch for Matt. Alex and Heidi for Jenna, but if I had to choose how Deena and Dave vote I'd say it looks like they'd vote for Jenna, but I think that is what Burnett wants us to think. One or both will vote for Matt and make him the winner. Remember when both Dave and Deena were voted out the one who was supposed to go was Matt. I think probably Dave will say Matt you beat me fair and square and also Dave will think of when Jenna screwed up and gave away the whole gameplan of the girls. Dave will vote analytically not with his heart - just a hunch on Mr Integrity. WINNER MATT! Thank god. Finally someone I like will win Survivor. Ethan was ok, but kinda blah to me. Wanted Lex.
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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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05-06-03, 11:20 AM (EST)
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62. "Bravo" |
you do have it, wacko, and I totally agree with your analysis/predictions. I have been waiting for someone with more spoiler "cred" to put this scenario forward before adding my two cents. What I think a lot of people here are not taking into consideration is the editing -- MB knows who wins (not just who makes final two) before he started editing the series. Once he knows who does, he edits the story accordingly -- while each winner has been edited differently, in this season the theme has def. been "Irony"/"Pride Goeth Before the Fall" (as pointed out by ivoryelephant after the first show). Look at Jenna and Matt (as per BoDogg) major plot points:
First time we see Jenna, she is washing her undies rather than building shelter and without regard for the rest of the tribe; Second time, she is giving up all her tribe's secrets to Dave; Third time, she is stipping, without reason, for peanut butter; Fourth time, she is calling Christy selfish for bidding on the letter from home. Jenna has stayed the same, self-centered person that she was from Day One.
Matt, on the other hand: First, he makes the wrong alliance (Ryan and Daniel), then his tribe purposefully excludes him so he "crafts" a new strategy and catches a ton of fish; Second, he is taken in by Rob, the "master player" as a pawn; Third, he begins to learn from the master how to play the game; Fourth, he generously gives up a visit from his mom so that his tribe can have visits with their loved ones. Matt is shown changing from the clueless outcast to a real player who is generous and well liked. He is adapting to the game and changing with it. To have him win would be the ultimate Irony for this season.
And I think this will play out the way wacko has predicted. 
compliments of GeorgiaBelle
Beauty Product Queen of the Boards and a fancy girl to boot!
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tanyafrommd 25 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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05-06-03, 12:48 PM (EST)
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63. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
>Here it goes:
>
>-Heidi IC-Matt
>-Rob IC-Jenna
>-Butch IC- Matt
>-Matt
>-Jenna= WINNER
>I think the boot order will be: 5. Butch
4. Heidi
3. Rob
2. Matt
1. Jenna I believe that Butch will end up 5 or 4 because his story (or lack of) will end with him burning down the forest (lol) and winning a car. Besides, I remember reading that Deena keeps in touch with Christy and Butch. I don't remember Deena bonding with Butch at all while she was there so they probably bonded at LL for a few days. I also think that Christy and Butch will probably talk pretty badly about Jenna and Heidi to Denna as soon as they get to LL...... this may affect the way Denna votes in the end and Matt could possibly win over Jenna....especially if she backstabs Rob to get to final 2. Now if Heidi goes next, then she may be able to do some damage control which would result in Deena voting for Jenna. Just my 2 cents.
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IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings
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05-06-03, 01:01 AM (EST)
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58. "Think Outside the Box" |
Why are most people still thinking of a Matt-Jenna Final 2? C1 is invalid. If anything I would think Matt and Jenna are the least likely to win at this point, only because C1 said they would.
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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05-06-03, 01:53 AM (EST)
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59. "BoDog" |
The online gambling site "BoDog" reportedly had a lot of bets coming in on a final 2 of Jenna and Matt from either the Los Angeles or Hollywood area. (which exactly I don't remember).The story is that BoDog noticed that these same betters had picked the correct final 2 in other SURVIVOR seasons. Thinking that the people placing these bets must have inside info, BoDog stopped taking bets on which two contestants would be the final 2. The assumption is that BoDog would have no reason to just invent this story, so it would appear folks with inside info know Jenna and Matt are the final 2. I'm very skeptical of this info.
Primarily because I know I heard this story during either S4 or S5, and I can't believe MB hadn't smoked out the folks cashing in on the insider info and had them fired before this season ever started.
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Ms_Ultra 16 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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05-06-03, 09:30 AM (EST)
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60. "RE: Think Outside the Box" |
Looking way outside the box there could be a F2 with H/J here's how it goes:If Matt doesn't win IN this week R/H/J vote him out. These three have shown how ruthless they will play (yes, even the girls) and how bad they want the money..... Next TC, Butch goes b/c no one wants to go to F2 with him. The only way he stays a little longer is if he win IN. F3 - R/H/J - could Heidi win the final IC? Perhaps the sound bite of her discussing the possibilitiy of voting Jenna out is with respect to F2 (H may see it to her advantage to have R in F2 over J b/c they would be competing for the some of the same 'for sure' votes (Alex/Deena))? Who knows.... maybe the girls want an all female F2 to eliminate the possibility of the jury coming down to a vote along gender lines (this was touted as Battle of the Sexes) in which case the guys win (more guys in jury). Or maybe the girls stick together to tthe end regardless of which one will win just to show their unity and 'girl power'. So the reason few think outside the box is b/c the possibilities are endless and people just don't like to be wrong. They latch on to some 'insiders' idea b/c that insider just has to know something more than the rest of us. It's easier to rationalize C1's F2 than to think he could wrong and try to figure out how it will play on your own, especially if you've put your faith in C1 all season and now have to relook at everything to come up with an alternate scenario.....too many possibilities.
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Kucha_vivor 4 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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05-06-03, 01:53 PM (EST)
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66. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
Well here I am a brand newbie spoiler, at least a new contributer to this board. I must say I have been watching these boards since the middle of S3 and I am amazed at some of the spoilers and ideas you all come up with. It is a joy to read each day. I'm not sure why it has taken me this long to join in but I hope to stay awhile. The one thing I was suprised by most was CO and how he was bought into hook line and sinker. Anyway here is my final boot order. Heidi goes next, IMO Jenna only saved her to help her get Christy since Christy would not commit. Next up Robasco, he is a great player but lets too many people know it. Then comes what most will view as a suprise I think Butch wins fallen comrades IC (isn't this next correct me if I'm wrong) He is the only one who cares about each person and will probably know the most about everyone, and he views Rob as the worst problem right now. Matt has had Rob figured out from Ep2. Now is the time Next boot is trickier, it might be that Butch wins the stamina IC and he takes Matt just because of how then have been aligned so far. Bye bye boobsie. I think the Jan syndrome will be broken with Butch. Consider this. Why has Butch had so little face time since about 5 episodes ago? This reminds me of Vecepia. I don't know if MB would edit that part of it so closely to Marquesa, but IMO there has to be a reason for it. So if a Butch/Matt Final takes place, who do all the baddies vote for? I believe Butch is a million dollars richer and a nice guy wins this thing. Just like Australia. Sorry I did not realize how wordy I had gotten. Kucha_vivor
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-07-03, 08:06 PM (EST)
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73. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
Welcome to Blows, Kucha_vivor. Interesting analysis. Butch certainly has been "hidden" this season, and with the way the game has gone a lot of it has revolved around strong players picking each other off in one way or another.
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nha 1 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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05-07-03, 10:03 PM (EST)
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74. "RE: How's this for some unpopular logic?" |
This may not have anything to do with anything.....BUT.... I live in the same town where Butch lives, and there is a place here that is having a big Survivor party on Sunday night for Butch, with CBS there as well. He also is not at work. He has bought a lot in an exclusive subdivision, is building a new house there, and has been seen driving a new vehicle or two...
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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05-06-03, 08:23 PM (EST)
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69. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
Heidi is next...(Game Logic, Webby, Milkshaky + 1 week)At the F4 Immunity changes the game. Since Jenna makes F2 (Bodog, ChillOne)she survives the vote at F4. With Heidi gone Jenna would be next...therefore she must win the F4 IC (Fallen comrads?) Jenna wants Rob gone, no one else can trust him, and no one wants to risk the purple rock...so Rob is gone. Butch goes at F3 by process of elimination (ChillOne, BoDog) Jenna/Matthew F2 (Bodog) Matthew wins 4-3 with Dave as the swing vote...
Krautboy
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ScurvyDogg 7 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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05-07-03, 07:59 PM (EST)
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72. "RE: C1' + BoDogg =" |
Maybe C1 isn't completely wrong. What if C1's final 4 is actually the final 4 boots that were seen by the boatmen. That would be the f7-f4 boots. Also, the list may not represent the exact order of the boots. If so, then C1's list might be the following players.Alex was the strong guy with close cropped hair parted on the side. He looks like he might be mid-20s even though he's 32. It's a better match than Matt. Christy was the deaf girl. Butch is the 50 year old guy. Jenna should be the hot looking girl with a name similar to Jana, but I'm guessing that CO's source got the name wrong. Maybe Heidi was told to pass her self off as Jenna. Anyway, I'm betting that Heidi was the 4th person on CO's list. That leaves Matt, Rob, and Jenna as the final three. Going with the BoDogg spoiler means that Matt must win immunity at f3 and vote out Rob. In a contest b/w Matt and Jenna, I believe Matt will win 4-3 by getting votes from Rob, Christy, Butch, and Deena. -----------------------
This result would also be consistent with JP's comment that the alliances would flip-flop continuously during the final episodes. In Ep#10 RMCB voted out Alex. In Ep#11 RMHJ voted out Christy. Flip. In EP#12 RMB will vote out Heidi. Flop. In Ep#13 RMJ will vote out Butch. Flip. In EP#14 MJ will vote out Rob. Flop. Deena will be the swing vote. In her CBS interview she initially refers to Matt as being one of the players that was just hanging around and that Rob was the best player of the game. But, later in the interview she states that maybe Matt was actually the best player. For her to concede this to Matt he must do something that undermines Rob. I believe that in EP#14 Matt wins immunity and boots Rob instead of Jenna. The student or master manipulator turns on his teacher at the critical juncture of the game. If Matt went against Rob at the final TC, Rob would argue he was the teacher while Matt was merely the student ... and the teacher is more deserving of the vote than the student. Matt won't give Rob the chance to make this argument to the jury.
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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05-08-03, 02:11 PM (EST)
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75. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
This is a great discussion. After reading everyone else's take, I have my own slant on the F5.Ep12 We have 2 girls left, who are totally tight (despite what we are told about next weeks ep), and 3 guys left, none of whom have any rock solid alliances with each other. Butch was on the outside of the voting block, but that doesn't make him vulnerable; it just makes him the outsider. Who is vulnerable? Well, any outsider can see that H/J have to be broken up. Who is the bigger threat? Heidi. She is the bigger immunity threat of the 2, and they both realize that. Jenna would rather keep H in the game to make Rob's life h3ll and to keep him from winning. Jenna knows that even though she has actually won more immunities than Heidi, she is weak. Heidi is a school teacher; she is better able to conduct herself in front of other people better than a swimsuit model. Even if you look at Rob as a swing vote between H/J and M/B, he doesn't want to have to go up against purple rock at F4. Rob has always played the best move (gawd, I'd hate to play chess against him) at TC. He knew he had to vote out Dave for his strength. He had to vote out Deena because of her "disloyalty" to the agreed to boot order. He had to vote off Alex to preserve a better position to get to the end. And he had to vote off Christy to guarantee that his plan would succeed. Rob plays for the best position, not maybe. Entering F4 as a tie is not the stongest position, and Rob will do what he needs to do to create a 3-1 advantage. Rob, then will vote off the girl that doesn't win immunity, and if neither does, he will vote off Heidi as the threat, and get Matt and Butch to vote with him. He can convince them both that it is their best bet to get to F3 is to get with him. They will also see that voting Rob off creates a 2-2 tie at F4, which creates uncertainty. With M/B voting with R, they know they will get to F3. The stepsisters could try to work on any of the guys, but it doesn't work to any of the guys advantage to side with the girls, because they can't do better than F3 with them. Votes: Rob - Heidi
Matt - Heidi
Butch - Heidi
Jenna - Rob
Heidi - Rob Heidi, please bring your torch. The tribe has spoken. Ep13a Jenna has to win immunity to stay alive. She won't win Fallen Comrades because she doesn't know anyone besides Heidi and Alex. She won't win an endurance challenge either. Her only hope is someone else screwing up... or having someone turn on Rob. Rob has been the master game player to this point. But now the tribe could see that he is in a weak position now. Of the remaining 4, Rob has been the most conniving and the least trustworthy. Jenna could convince the other guys of this fact. This could especially be the case with Matthew, as Rob unwittingly revealed his plan to take Jenna to F2 instead of Matthew. Now, while Jenna can be a beyotch, she is also sincere. She can't lie, but she is believable, which could win Matt over. So to survive, Rob would have to win immunity. Rob couldn't beat Matt at any physical challenge, including endurance. If the game is Fallen Comrades, Rob stands a chance, though it would be hard fought between Rob, Butch, and Matt. I think Butch or Matt has a stronger chance of beating Rob, so regardless of immunity, Rob loses. Votes: Rob - Jenna
Matt - Rob
Butch - Rob
Jenna - Rob Rob, please bring me your torch. The tribe has spoken. Ep13b Matt, Butch and Jenna are left. If this is endurance, then Matt wins immunity. Who does he take to the finals? Does he pull a Colby and say that Butch deserves it more? Or does he take the person that he can beat, which is Jenna? I would say that this is the underdog season. This guy is the Kathy that doesn't have Vee to betray him. Kathy had to rely on Vee's word to get to the end. Her word was worthless (imagine that on Survivor), and Vee went to the finals w/Neleh. Matt, however, is physically stronger than Jenna or Butch, in much the same way that Brian could physically overpower Jan or Clay. This is Matt's game to win now, and he can probably beat either of them on the jury. I place my bet on him taking Jenna due to the gaming spoiler and the CO spoiler (even though it has been inaccurate). Vote: Matt - Butch Butch, please bring me your torch. The tribe has spoken. Ep13c Jury - Dave, Deena, Alex, Christy, Heidi, Rob, Butch Jeff said that it came down to the jury speeches and questioning, so that is the element that I am going to leave out and that also becomes the wild card in the situation. (It also will make it fun to watch the last ep, as always.) Dave - Jenna Heidi is the one who has put her foot in her mouth during TC, not Jenna. Jenna doesn't say much of relevance (imagine that). They did have their time together before the swap. Dave wanted Matt to leave, and he may still look at Matt as being creepy. Matt has redeemed himself since then, but Dave may sway toward Jenna. Deena - Matt Deena sees the transformation that Matt has made. Jenna was part of her ousting, and she doesn't see Jenna as deserving the money. Alex - Jenna The Buddy alliance isn't broken. Christy - Matt She would NEVER let either of the evil stepsisters get the million. (Note: expect to see a snake/rat speech, though with much more restraint, class, and sophistication.) Heidi - Jenna see above re: Alex Rob - Matt The student has become the master. He pissed Jenna off, and I don't think he even wants to be friends. He knows how wise Matt has gotten at the game, and that he deserves it much more than Jenna does. Butch - Matt Butch has just been booted and has to think on his feet. He could be hurt about just getting booted, but if it's Matthew then he had to have seen it coming. Butch has maturity and can think with wisdom when wisdom would not seem the most logical thing to do. He has lived with Matt for most of the time. He can see that Jenna has treated people (including himself, Christy, and Matt) poorly, and that Matt is the deserving winner. Jenna - 3
Matt - 4 Mateo, you are the sole survivor! (Jeff silently snuffs out Jenna's torch while going to commercial.) The 2 votes that I'm not sure on are Butch and Dave. We just don't know enough about Dave's thought process, and I'm not sure about how stable Butch's emotions will be after 37 days of living in starvation conditions. (Consider the "woodpiling" and the talking to himself on Team Crazy.) Anyway, that's my F5 PTTE... and that's all I got to say about that.
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Chez 777 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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05-08-03, 04:47 PM (EST)
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77. "Heidi-Butch-Rob-Jenna-Matt" |
Heidi goes tonight. (The wicked sisters have to be split up NOW.)Then comes the endurance challenge at F4. Jenna or Matt wins. I'm betting Matt. Butch goes (after all, won a car) Fallen Comrades is challenge at F3. Jenna wins. Votes off Rob. Matt wins.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-08-03, 05:15 PM (EST)
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78. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
Okay, I'll toss my hat into the ring:F5 -- Heidi goes. (reasons explained elsewhere) Then Rob persuades Matt and Jenna that Butch must go next, because Rob is the best final 2 opponent for either Matt or Jenna should they win final immunity. They both tend to agree. So... F4 -- Butch goes. (This may be helped along by Jenna winning IC) Rob has played a seemingly incredible game. He's now in a final 3 where no matter who wins immunity, he should get to final 2. Matt has had an F2 pact with him. Jenna should be doubtful about being able to beat Matthew. Rob has lied to and backstabbed so many people, he's the ideal F2 opponent. But Rob knows he can plead his case quite well at the jury Q&A... Time for the final IC. Fallen comrades. Jenna mildly surprises
all present by remembering quite a bit about her fellow contestants, while Rob stumbles, and Matt looks blank much of the time. Jenna wins. Time for Jenna to vote out Matt, selecting Rob as her Final 2 opponent. But this is the moment she has been waiting for, to stick the knife in and twist. "You tried to screw me, now I screw you." F3 -- Rob goes. Final jury vote is between Matt and Jenna. In his opening statement, Matt reminds the jury that he worked hard to catch food and cook; he did not backstab anyone; he thought he was part of a large group alliance but was betrayed; he tried to treat everyone fairly. Jenna says she deserves to win because, as a model, she had to try much harder than anyone else. Plus, her mother is sick. Plus, she didn't backstab anyone. Well, maybe only sort of. In the Q&A, Jenna takes a lot of heat from Rob and Christy. Matt is viewed a bit skeptically because of his somewhat anti-social behavior. Time to vote: We see Christy vote for Matt
We see Heidi vote for Jenna
We see Butch vote for Matt
We see Alex (or Dave) vote for Jenna We do not see who Deena, Rob and Dave (or Alex) vote for. Final tally: Matthew wins by one vote. Deena voted for Jenna; Rob and Dave (or Alex) voted for Matthew.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-08-03, 06:02 PM (EST)
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82. "RE: Final 5 Boot Order" |
Thanks, KB. I think your scenario works just as well, with Rob running out of steam at F4. Agree we may get a better fix on it after tonight -- I just hope Heidi DOES get booted!!
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- A GeorgiaBelle original
Me and Heidi Strobel share the same birthday!!!! GO HEIDI!!!
